Article: A Re-Do On Dozier For Minnesota

[Supfin99]

 

I would not be looking to extend Dozier.  Offer him the qualifying offer at the end of the year (16M) which he'll likely turn down and the Twins won't lose him for nothing.  (Remember: the compensation pick for Cuddyer turned into Berrios).

This is exactly what I would do.  You don't need to give 32 yr olds 5 yr extensions and Brian is not going to take a 2 or 3 yr deal.  He demanded only a 4 yr ext and he got it.  He didn't do it as a favor to his favorite organization as I saw one reader suggest.  He did it because he got millions guaranteed and lost no free agency years.  It was a no brainer for him.  Thru arbitration he would have made more than he ended up signing for but it would have been no where near 114 mil.  He is is the epitome of reasons why teams have to develop their own cheap, controllable talent.  Extend Brian the qualifying offer, when he turns it down and signs a 5 yr deal for a east or west coast team take the compensation and plug Gordon in.  

[sploorp]

 

If I remember correctly the previous administration tried to get an extra year or two tacked on. But Dozier wouldnt sign for that because that would affect his chance at a big payday.

I don't recall any news claiming that Dozier refused accept extra years, much less so he could get a big payday that much sooner.  I do remember a lot of discussion as to why the front office didn't get at least one option year - just in case he turned out to be the real deal.  The dollars were about what he would have gotten in arbitration, so he should have been willing accept at least one option year.

 

I do agree with that thinking, I just don't remember if it was Dozier refusing or the team just not demanding it.

[jrod23]

I’d love to see him stay, but there might be others who are willing to pay heavily. He definitely deserves it.

[Wookiee of the Year]

 

Dozier is massively underpaid, but it's partly his fault. He signed a contract that he knew was underpaying him to help out his favorite team. Let's hope the team returns the favor.

Important to keep in mind the alternative wasn't free agent years, but arbitration years. He was going to be underpaid one way or another--the question is really how his contract compares to what he would've made via arbitration. It's still turned out to be a bargain for the Twins, but not the massive one you'd think from looking at his equivalent free agent value over that time.

 

I also remember reports (or interpretations of reports) suggesting it was Dozier's side that was hesitant to sign on to additional years--though we don't know if those were pitched as contract years or team option years. Always tough to know exactly what the sticking points were and to what degree when you're not one of the ones at the negotiating table.

[USAFChief]

A contract adding 2 FA years would have been ideal 3 years ago, but that is irrelevant. It didn't happen.

 

As for what to do... make the qualifying offer after 2018, collect the comp pick, and move on. The Twins can't and shouldn't tie up the money he'll get.

[h2oface]

 

That's a very one-sided point of view.  There have been numerous players who received enormous contracts and failed miserably to deliver.  Those payers don't give back a dime and the premise of them doing so is never even a remote consideration.  The union would go nuts.  It might even be a result of injury but why is it fair that the team absorb 100% of the risk associated with injury or non-performance.  To say the owners should pay beyond market on a new contract with all the uncertainty associated with these big deals is wildly biased. 

 

It is just what I would hope I would do, if I was in the position. I agree, my view is my view, and since I am one person, it is one-sided. And yes, the owners get the shaft on contracts far more often than the players, and other than Lyman Bostock, I have never heard of a player wanting to give it back, or take less than they agreed to, when they sucked. I think I did say Dozier was unlucky.

 

Dozier, like Jose Bautista, fell in the crack of unlucky, and basically got screwed for market value of his performance compared to the contract that he played for.

 

Yes... I did.

 

I am not saying what owners should do, I think I was saying what I would do.

 

Personally, I would offer him a 15 million signing bonus, and a 36 million 2 year extension. Even if he falls off a bit, he deserves it for all the years he didn't get paid what he was worth. But owners are rarely that appreciative and fair.

 

Yup, upon rereading, I did.

 

I don't know that 18 mil/year for two years is above market. I don't think it is. The bonus is thanking him for the great performance that he didn't get paid for, and I am acknowledging, becasuse I am a special guy.      But even if one looks at the $113.1 million value through the life of his last 4 year contract, and takes the total of $51 million I suggest over 2 years, or $25.5 million a year, it seems to be slightly   underpaying if he continues to play anywhere close to the last 2 years.

 

"Over the life of his current contract (2015 onward), Dozier has been worth 14.1 fWAR. To date, he’s been paid just $11 million of the total $20 million deal (leaving $9 million for 2018). In terms of dollars, Fangraphs quantifies his production having been worth $113.1 million through the life of his contract. By that metric alone, the Twins have recouped over ten times their investment in the player that the Southern Mississippi star has become."

 

Edited December 29, 2017 by h2oface

[h2oface]

 

The Twins did good to keep Dozier originally and not trade him.  I predict a regression for him this year (just a gut feeling, nothing else), so I think this issue will take care of itself.

 

There it is again.... the Dozier doom. He can't escape it, no matter how well he plays, or what he does.

[h2oface]

 

Dozier is massively underpaid, but it's partly his fault. He signed a contract that he knew was underpaying him to help out his favorite team. Let's hope the team returns the favor.

 

I think Dozier thought it was a fair contract at the time. One would have to ask him, I guess. But If he just performed at the level he did in 2013 and 2014, the two years before the contract years..... 

 

I don't think he did it "to help out his favorite team". Sure, he wanted to stay with the Twins, and still does. He could have gone the other direction, or got hurt. I think he did it for his own security just as much. He just surprised about everyone the last 3 years, including himself, I bet.....

Edited December 29, 2017 by h2oface

[dgwills]

Dozier has been great for the Twins and he will certainly help next year, but there's really no reason to give him more than the QO. Middle infield is the strength of the farm system, so it just doesn't make sense to spend free agent dollars there. You sign veterans to fix the weaknesses of your team. For the Twins that is obviously pitching. If guys like Meyer, Stewart, Jay, Burdi, Chargois, Bard, Melatokis, etc. had worked out then things would be different.

Hate to see him leave, but we do get one more year and I will still be a Dozier fan when he's on another team with a big contract.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't recall any news claiming that Dozier refused accept extra years, much less so he could get a big payday that much sooner.

http://m.startribune.com/settling-on-a-second-baseman-twins-sign-dozier-through-2018/297472871/

 

“It offers a measure of security for Brian and offers the cost certainty for the club,” said Damon Lapa, Dozier’s agent. “The element that ultimately swayed our decision to move forward was that Brian did not have to sacrifice any free agent or option years and ultimately preserve his ability to become a free agent during the prime of his career.”

[Kwak]

It was made clear many times that Dozier wants to test the market as a free-agent--and he will!  Play him this year until the ASB and then assess the trade market. If the offer is better than the "comp pick" for a lost free agent--make the deal! The Twins can always be aggressive in bidding for Dozier after the 2018 season ends.

[bighat]

Twins won't sign Dozier. It's too bad but it's just the way the cookie crumbles in this case.  I don't see the Twins putting up buku cash for a 32 year-old second baseman. I wish they would, but the Twins are about as conservative and cautious as they come in MLB. With Dustin Pedroia heading off into the sunset real soon, I think Dozier will be suiting up in Beantown gear (if not Yankee Pinstripes) after he hits the open market.

[wabene]

Dozier bet on himself and it looks like he is going to win that bet. Good for him. He'll get paid, either here or somewhere else.

I would say it was quite the opposite. If Dozier had bet on himself he wouldn't have signed the safe deal and made more money. He was underpaid because he gave up some risk.

[wabene]

I don't recall any news claiming that Dozier refused accept extra years, much less so he could get a big payday that much sooner.  I do remember a lot of discussion as to why the front office didn't get at least one option year - just in case he turned out to be the real deal.  The dollars were about what he would have gotten in arbitration, so he should have been willing accept at least one option year.

 

I do agree with that thinking, I just don't remember if it was Dozier refusing or the team just not demanding it.

If the team wasn't asking for option years they weren't doing their job.

[Blackjack]

It will be interesting to see how Falvine handles the Dozier situation. Do they value the veteran leadership and extend him??  Do they trade him at the deadline, showing no team loyalty? It will be interesting!!!!

[Dan In Real Life]

The Mariners gave a 30/31 year old Robinson Cano a 10 year $240M contract. It was a ridiculous contract on the team's part, but it gives a sense of what it might take to sign Dozier now. He's not getting Cano money/years, obviously, but I also think estimates that the Twins could extend him for 2 or 3 years at $14-15M per year are a pipe dream.

 

My guess is that Dozier's agent starts the discussions at 5 years / $100M, maybe even 6 years / $120M. The minimum he'll end up with is probably 4 years @ $18M per year.

 

Some team is going to drastically over pay him for the last couple years of his next contract. Should it be the Twins?

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think Dozier will age well. I would pass on any significant extension. At some point before the end of his next contract he will be a league average hitter playing 1B. Let some other team pay for his decline.

[bunsen82]

I actually think Dozier could age very well.  I could argue he has gotten better defensively and offensively every year.  I also think he works very hard at his craft, takes good care of his body which would allow him to age well.  I also think we could get him back for a reasonable contract.  I think he likes playing for the twins may give a home town discount at the end of the day even if he suggests otherwise.  I also think with a Franchise tag, and all the other players coming out, his market may actually be a little depressed especially with his age.  

[drivlikejehu]

I think Dozier may age reasonably well . . . he's a solid overall athlete and has proven adaptable at the plate to the adjustments that pitchers have made.

 

But I don't think it's practical for the Twins to pay him substantial dollars in his mid-30s. 

[jorgenswest]

By BR similarity, Dan Uggla is not only the best comp for Dozier at age 30 but also by career through age 30.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2011/6/22/2235737/braves-dan-uggla-news-2011-season-31-year-old-second-basemen

[Mr. Brooks]

I actually think Dozier could age very well. I could argue he has gotten better defensively and offensively every year. I also think he works very hard at his craft, takes good care of his body which would allow him to age well. I also think we could get him back for a reasonable contract. I think he likes playing for the twins may give a home town discount at the end of the day even if he suggests otherwise. I also think with a Franchise tag, and all the other players coming out, his market may actually be a little depressed especially with his age.

Did I miss something? Did baseball add a franchise tag? That's the second time I've heard it mentioned regarding Dozier.

[bunsen82]

LoL yes you are right

[drivlikejehu]

 

By BR similarity, Dan Uggla is not only the best comp for Dozier at age 30 but also by career through age 30.

https://www.sbnation.com/2011/6/22/2235737/braves-dan-uggla-news-2011-season-31-year-old-second-basemen

 

Another comparable, Ian Kinsler, has aged very well. Also on the list is Jose Valentin, who had 4 solid years after age 31 (though not consecutively).

[jorgenswest]

Another comparable, Ian Kinsler, has aged very well. Also on the list is Jose Valentin, who had 4 solid years after age 31 (though not consecutively).

It isn’t just the 2B piece. Players that have the “old player skills” of power, strikeouts and walks tend to decline earlier. In Kinsler’s 12 season he has exceeded 100 strikeouts just once. Everyone of Dozier’s full seasons have more strikeouts that any of Kinsler’s seasons. Kinsler had much more space to decline from his 12% K rate. Dozier starts at 20%.

[Darius]

I'd let him test the market. Gordon should be ready to take over soon and will be cheaper. Since pennies are pinched so tightly opportunity cost is a big consideration. The contract he'll command would be better served if it were put towards starting pitching next year.

[kab21]

This is an issue that you address after the route to solve starting pitching this offseason. And more likely you kick the can down the road to the next offseason. He might ultimately come at a discount if the market is soft (like last year's trade market) but he is close enough to FA that he will want the upper end of any numbers discussed in this thread. I don't think he exceeds that in FA.

 

The reason to push for an extension now is if he would be considered a MUST sign player that the team can't afford to lose. He isn't. The Twins have many options in the middle infield to reasonably replace him even if there is a falloff in overall ability.

 

One thing that could change this would be trading multiple MI prospects (including non-prospect Polanco) for a pitcher like Archer. If that occurred then MI wouldn't be as strong and they might be able to tie up money in Dozier (Archer is cheap). But even then I probably keep spending on pitching (RP or SP).

 

One thing that I have mentioned before is that I would MUCH rather pay Escobar elite utility player dollars in an extension (3/20-25M) than to give Dozier a 4 or 5 year contract at 15-20M/yr. Buying age 31-35 seasons at a premium makes me NERVOUS. He will get paid and he made the right choice (no option years) but it looks like a bad idea. Cano says hello though...