Article: Twins Sign RHP Michael Pineda

[amjgt]

Not sure what the answer to B is, but there's a good indication to the answer to A in this Fangraphs article from last December.

 

Listed in a tier of top potential FA SPs is Darvish, Arrieta, Danny Duffy (who signed an extension) and Pineda. The next tier of depth guys included Lynn, Cobb, Chatwood and others. So it's a good guess Pineda would have been the third-ranked SP if healthy.

Good find.

 

I'm of the opinion (granted, it's a totally uneducated, unsourced, long shot, play the lottery if I'm right opinion) that Arrieta will end up signing a 1yr contract this offseason (for like 25M. He'll bet on himself because nobody will take on the 4+ year risk that he's asking for. I understand this is a long shot and his 6/150 will probably be announced 5 minutes after I post this, but I'm just not seeing any interest in him yet. He'll get some 2 year offers, but he'll opt for the 1 year route and test the process again next year.

 

Anyway.... this is like a $10m make good contract.

[Mike Sixel]

Which threads exactly are entire threads on not spending 6M on an RP? I'm legitimately curious. Look, I get that there people who don't want to do that, and that is fine. It's their right, and they are entitled to that opinion...

 

But it's statements like that, which are blatantly untrue, that just invite lots of needless bickering. Let's try and stick to actual talking points instead of stereotypical ones that ignore what everyone is saying... thanks.

The relief pitcher article. It states, and some have agreed, they should mostly rely in internal options, and maybe sign a cheap flyer or two...The same opinion expressed last year, actually. It's not like I am alone in my opinion on that thread, Chief has posted in there echoing this thought about that thread.

[rv78]

I have no problem with this signing if they still get a top tier pitcher or two for 2018. I will be very upset if they say they can't afford a Darvish or Arrieta or Archer if they can spend $10 Million on a pitcher that provides virtually little to no return in 2018 and for all we or anyone else knows may not be very effective in 2019 due to TJ surgery.

 

[h2oface]

May as well go after Colon again, and Sabathia.... And we can sport the heaviest starters, the Tonage Trio. It would surely be an inspiration to young hurler's on how to take care of onesself to pitch in the show.

[Riverbrian]

 

When these moves work out, people freak out about why the Twins don't make these kind of moves.   When the Twins make these kind of moves, people freak out about the risk they won't work out.

 

It's like we can't get everyone to agree 100% on any topic. 

 

I think we all agree that Mosquitoes are horrible things. Apart from that... there is at least a minority opinion on every other thing in life.  

 

I know a guy who likes Orange Juice after brushing his teeth. 

 

I'm pro Pineda... even if he doesn't work out. I'm also anti orange juice after brushing my teeth. 

 

[Bill Brown69]

I didn't have time to read all the replies so if this has been brought up, my apologies. 

 

IMHO adding an option year would have required at least a 15 mil commitment. This is a great deal FOR BOTH SIDES. No side is going to win on every deal every time period. 

 

Pineda gets 10 mil, all the training facilities to be back as the best possible. In return he is only on the hook for 1, maybe plus years of being healthy and showing what he can do when fully healthy. Then he gets to hit the market again and try for his big contract. If he hadn't blew his arm out he would have signed north of 100 mil. He still has that chance and we have a chance that for 1 year he might be a 15-20 mil pitcher for only 10. Win/win but if I were in his shoes there is no way I sign longer than 2 unless it is 15 mil a year minimum.

[Kwak]

This move tells me: 

 

• New thinking in the FO
• Status quo will not be maintained
• There are some in the rotation that will be replaced--soon!
• Pitching is the #1 priority
• Money won't be as tight as before.

I like the move. Mostly because it shows new thinking and better focus on the big picture. Building a consistent winner requires more risk of the occasional step-back. 2018 shouldn't be the #1 priority--long-term success should be emphasized.

[Kirbek]

I like it.  I have been wasting fantasy baseball roster space on him for the majority of the last 4 seasons....maybe he can finally make it as a Twin.

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I'm a bit tepid on this signing.

Best description for a low risk/high reward gamble for 2019. 

[ashbury]

I'm also anti orange juice after brushing my teeth. 

Try a bite of raw onion after minty Crest. It's... different.

[MN_ExPat]

If you look at his stat sheet, the likelihood of a breakout year is low. He's a #3/#4 guy at best.

 

If he pitches well in 2019, no one is going to be paying big money for a guy with one good year by age 31/32.  

Best case (for him) is he has a #3-level year and the Twins extend him, or he becomes a good bullpen arm and the Twins extend him.

Worst case is he turns into Scott Baker and the recovery from TJ is long. He may never actually play for the Twins before his contract runs out.

This has all the red flags of the bad signings Ryan made post 2011. Let's hope this one works out.

We're again talking about the $ involved, which doesn't matter. This team isn't going bankrupt and they have yet to make an investment in a top or even mid-level player that doesn't have an asterisk. If the Minnesota Twins ever reach a point where they can't pay their bills, then let's talk about $!

 

So I’m guessing you’re not much of a fan of this signing and you disapprove a many fans exuberance (and puppies).

 

Give the Governor a Harummph!! And get off my lawn!!!

[Doomtints]

 

So I’m guessing you’re not much of a fan of this signing and you disapprove a many fans exuberance (and puppies). Give the Governor a Harummph!! And get off my lawn!!!

 

Disapprove? No. Agree? No. Understand? I think so, I've seen these hurrahs every time Ryan did something bizarre too. It's fans being literally fanatical.

 

It's OK to be critical. I would call it essential. As I said, for this to be the first move makes no sense. If this had been the last move, sure, why not.

 

Seems to me the Twins front office still overvalues pitchers who dominate them, regardless of how the pitchers pitch against everybody else.

Edited December 14, 2017 by Doomtints

[MN_ExPat]

You’re all good. Just having some fun and keeping it light

[MidwestTwinsFan15]

Pretty standard signing for a Starting Pitcher coming off of TJ. Year 2 of contract is nothing but upside for the money that is being paid to Pineda. 8 mil for a potential starting pitcher is great. If he doesn't come back to himself after rehab - 2 years and 10 million wont break the bank on a gamble

[clone52]

 

Of course. You are probably familiar with ERA+, OPS+, wRC+, etc., where values under 100 are below average (negative value) players.

 

For a team to make the playoffs, teams want as many above average players as possible. Replacement value (WAR) is worthless. Look at WAA instead.

 

I still don't see that as negative value.  To me, negative value means you could replace him with anybody.

 

Plus, if the talent level overall of the league goes up, one year a guy could be positive value, he could actually improve and have negative value the next year.

 

I'd much rather see what the average #4 or #5 starter is on teams and if Pineda is better or worse than that.  If he's better than the average #4 or #5 starter, then it could be a good signing.

 

 

[Doomtints]

 

I still don't see that as negative value.  To me, negative value means you could replace him with anybody.

 

Plus, if the talent level overall of the league goes up, one year a guy could be positive value, he could actually improve and have negative value the next year.

 

I'd much rather see what the average #4 or #5 starter is on teams and if Pineda is better or worse than that.  If he's better than the average #4 or #5 starter, then it could be a good signing.

 

If he is worse than the competition he is a negative.

 

#4 and #5 starters are negatives on most teams, but teams can only afford so many #1s and #2s. If your first move in free agency is to add a #4/#5, you're doing something wrong. This is the same trap Ryan kept falling into.

Edited December 14, 2017 by Doomtints

[Battle ur tail off]

This signing is fine if it's paired with another high end guy or trade for a high end guy in the next 2 years. If not, it's just another dumpster dive. 

 

I appreciate the FO thinking outside of the box, but at one time or another, I would just like to have a stud gift wrapped and placed under the Christmas tree. Not one that has to be fixed the minute you open it. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The relief pitcher article. It states, and some have agreed, they should mostly rely in internal options, and maybe sign a cheap flyer or two...The same opinion expressed last year, actually. It's not like I am alone in my opinion on that thread, Chief has posted in there echoing this thought about that thread.

 

For the record, I think you, myself, and chief are all on the same side (pretty sure we all want more than Rodney at this point)... but that isn't what you said there. I'm simply asking that we stop with the nebulous "many posters advocate some sort of straw man type argument" and respond to actual comments. Nothing good comes from that.

[Mike Sixel]

For the record, I think you, myself, and chief are all on the same side (pretty sure we all want more than Rodney at this point)... but that isn't what you said there. I'm simply asking that we stop with the nebulous "many posters advocate some sort of straw man type argument" and respond to actual comments. Nothing good comes from that.

Fair. And good advice

[ashbury]

If he is worse than the competition he is a negative.

The goal of any team is to win the World Series, not simply play .500. An everyday player who is not at least 2 WAA is a negative.

[prouster]

 

The goal of any team is to win the World Series, not simply play .500. An everyday player who is not at least 2 WAA is a negative.

 

I think you mean 2 WAR. Miguel Sano, for example, was worth 0.8 WAA last year. Rosario was -0.3. Berrios, 0.4. They probably shouldn't trade for Gerrit Cole if this is the standard we want to apply. He was only worth 1.1. Chris Archer is also a bum, I guess. -0.6. And I don't get all this fuss about Yu Darvish. He was only worth 0.2.

[ashbury]

I think you mean 2 WAR.

Nope. I want a new stat, Wins Above Mediocrity. WAM of 0 should be around 4 WAR, not 2. If your nine starting hitters (counting DH) plus at least four rotation starters and your closer aren't contributing at least 0 WAM, the laggards sporting a negative WAM should be jettisoned, or you likely don't have a 100-win caliber team, especially since the rest of your roster can't be contributing many WAM almost by definition.

 

_{^{And since I was attempting a little bit of satire with that thought, I'm going to leave it at that. The idea of labeling a major league player as a negative is more than a bit arbitrary.}}

[diehardtwinsfan]

You wanted wham?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izGwDsrQ1eQ

[USAFChief]

 

You wanted wham?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izGwDsrQ1eQ

Well, the winter meetings are over.  Presumably Falvine left a message with Darvish's agent to "Wake me up before you go go." 

 

I hope they get some actual help and don't just settle for letting the "Young Guns (Go For It!)".

[The Wise One]

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolasri01.shtml

 

Like Nolasco, Pineda has some fangraphs pundits scratching their heads. "His FIP looks nice, why does he suck? We just can't figure it out."

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=michael+pineda+fangraphs

 

Sometimes (always?) you have to use actual metrics instead of algorithms.  

The more exceptions to a statistic means the statistic is not measuring what the statistics guru says it does. The people here should not be bothering with advanced metrics

[gunnarthor]

 

Nope. I want a new stat, Wins Above Mediocrity. WAM of 0 should be around 4 WAR, not 2. If your nine starting hitters (counting DH) plus at least four rotation starters and your closer aren't contributing at least 0 WAM, the laggards sporting a negative WAM should be jettisoned, or you likely don't have a 100-win caliber team, especially since the rest of your roster can't be contributing many WAM almost by definition.

 

_{^{And since I was attempting a little bit of satire with that thought, I'm going to leave it at that. The idea of labeling a major league player as a negative is more than a bit arbitrary.}}

Wait, you think a team should have 14 players producing 4 or more WAR each year? I don't think that has ever happened. Cleveland won 102 games last year and had 4 players produce 4 WAR or more. Houston won 101 and had 6. Dodgers won 104 and had 5. 

[clone52]

 

If he is worse than the competition he is a negative.

 

#4 and #5 starters are negatives on most teams, but teams can only afford so many #1s and #2s. If your first move in free agency is to add a #4/#5, you're doing something wrong. This is the same trap Ryan kept falling into.

 

Its only a mistake if it prevents them from signing their #1 guy.

 

If they went into the off seasons with 2 goals, to sign a top of the rotation guy and to sign a bottom of the rotation guy with upside, who the hell cares what order it goes in.   

 

If its their only move, I don't like it.  Ryan's trap wasn't making the small move first, it was not making a bigger move at all.

[ashbury]

The more exceptions to a statistic means the statistic is not measuring what the statistics guru says it does. The people here should not be bothering with advanced metrics

Those teams that are adept at teasing out the signal from the noise in the forecasting realm will run circles around those teams that believe there is certainty to be had in any of the numbers. We fans at home are certainly entitled to play along with the celebrity panel.

[Doomtints]

 

The more exceptions to a statistic means the statistic is not measuring what the statistics guru says it does. The people here should not be bothering with advanced metrics

 

I have strong biases against FIP. I have never liked it. But that's a big rabbit hole of a discussion that we have already had around here a few times. I just have to accept that FIP is valuable to some people and work with it.

Edited December 15, 2017 by Doomtints

[prouster]

 

Nope. I want a new stat, Wins Above Mediocrity. WAM of 0 should be around 4 WAR, not 2. If your nine starting hitters (counting DH) plus at least four rotation starters and your closer aren't contributing at least 0 WAM, the laggards sporting a negative WAM should be jettisoned, or you likely don't have a 100-win caliber team, especially since the rest of your roster can't be contributing many WAM almost by definition.

 

_{^{And since I was attempting a little bit of satire with that thought, I'm going to leave it at that. The idea of labeling a major league player as a negative is more than a bit arbitrary.}}

 

Boy, no wonder we're disappointed if that's the standard.