Article: Expansion Could Alter MLB's Landscape

[Taildragger8791]

 

I don't see a lack of quality pitching, I see a ball that is way too easy to hit over the fence. Strikeouts are at an all-time high (good pitching), batting average are slightly below historical averages (.255 v .260 to .265) and HR are way up. With fewer HR nobody would think there isn't enough good pitching.

 

The increase in K's and HRs are connected though. Hitters recognized the value in selling out to do damage on one swing instead of just trying to get on base in strikeout counts. Thus, more K's and more HRs. That's where your biggest spikes in numbers are coming from.

 

The increase in K's can also be attributed to the intentional focus on developing strikeout pitchers supplemented with more aggressive bullpen usage. I don't believe we're seeing an unusual abundance of elite starters mowing down the league 7-8 innings at a time. Teams are just going after the K with more intent because they recognize the value in it.

[ashbury]

This is nearly identical to what I suggested in post 8, except I'd put Washington in the south, not Pittsburgh, since Washington is, well, further south.

It's hard to place Washington. President Kennedy liked to say that it was a city of Northern charm and Southern efficiency

[Squirrel]

It's hard to place Washington. President Kennedy liked to say that it was a city of Northern charm and Southern efficiency

Heh, well ... for this exercise, it's actually more difficult to place Pittsburgh.

 

I think it would be better to add a team in the south somewhere, and not Montreal. There are already a large clump of teams in the broader NE sector.

[laloesch]

 

Imagine trying to convince a FA to move to OK City. Even the NBA, with all its money, struggles with that. 

 

How bout Vegas then?  At the same time the league could reinstate Pete Rose

 

[ashbury]

Heh, well ... for this exercise, it's actually more difficult to place Pittsburgh.

 

I think it would be better to add a team in the south somewhere, and not Montreal. There are already a large clump of teams in the broader NE sector.

JFK's thoughts concerning Pittsburgh apparently were unprintable because I didn't find any.

 

There's a large clump of people in the NE sector. It's possible the area is underrepresented. There's been talk of putting a third NY team at Coney Island in Brooklyn, for example.

[Mike Sixel]

Estimates are each existing team would get a check for 30-60MM on the day the franchise are sold, maybe up to 70MM.

 

That makes up for missing 6 games a year pretty fast.....

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

JFK's thoughts concerning Pittsburgh apparently were unprintable because I didn't find any.

 

I'd hate to think about what he said of my little home town - not even gonna try to Google it

[Squirrel]

While I think the 4-team divisions and keeping the NL/AL somewhat intact is the better model by far, how would you make the 8-team divisions, and not keeping the NL/AL in tact? (I just can't come up with 8-team divisions, keeping travel in mind, that keeps the AL/NL in tact.) I think what was proposed was just ... wrong, especially since they are trying to consider travel costs. MN might be further north, but it's also further west than a lot of other 'northern' teams. It just doesn't make sense to have Twins in the same division with the eastern most teams. Either Chicago team would make more sense than that, imo, both still are considered northern, too.

 

NE division: Boston, Montreal, New York Yankees and Mets, Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit, Chi Sox

 

SE division: Baltimore, DC, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Miami, Tampa, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh.

 

(If Montreal is not an expansion team, and they added one somewhere in the broader SE quarter of the U.S., I'd move Pittsburgh to the NE in place of Montreal, and add the expansion team to the SE. Or, as Ash suggested a 3rd NY team, that would replace Montreal.)

 

Central division: Milwaukee, Chi Cubs, Minnesota, St. Louis, KC, Houston, Rangers, Colorado

 

West: Seattle, Portland, San Fran, Oakland, Anaheim, LA, SD, Phoenix

 

No matter how you would do it, it would turn baseball upside down. I just think this whole 'expansion and then what' speculation would kill the sport if followed through on.

[Vanimal46]

 

Central division: Milwaukee, Chi Cubs, Minnesota, St. Louis, KC, Houston, Rangers, Colorado

 

This division would be brutal to be in. Not that I disagree from a geography standpoint, it would just be very difficult to win division titles against Houston, Cubs, St. Louis, and Texas.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

As others said, talent will be diluted.

 

You might also find that longer games have accompanied prior MLB expansions, if so, maybe lesser pitching talent is a factor there, not sure. Maybe Manfred is already bored with his pet issue of shortening games.

[Squirrel]

This division would be brutal to be in. Not that I disagree from a geography standpoint, it would just be very difficult to win division titles against Houston, Cubs, St. Louis, and Texas.

 

Well, sure, right now. Who knows when this would happen even if it would. And I wouldn't want to be in a division with the Yankees or Red Sox, either; especially the Yankees since we can never seem to get past them.

[diehardtwinsfan]

expansion won't solve the revenue problem. If anything, it makes it worse. Only way to use expansion to do this is to put another team in NY and LA, and even then, I'm not sure it solves anything.

 

Honestly, if baseball wanted to expand, I'd think there would be much better markets in central America than Portland or Montreal.

[SweetOne69]

I agree with the Talent being diluted, especially in pitching.  Think about it, at least 48% of every team is made up of pitching.  Currently there are at least 360 pitchers on the MLB rosters if the add 2 more teams that would increase to 384.

 

The talent pool from which to get players isn't growing and currently almost every team in league is looking for pitching.

 

Unless they come out with a hard salary cap and true revenue sharing (which is impossible due to most of the broadcasting rights is local and not national unlike the NFL), you would end up with the high revenue teams being dominant since they can buy all of the top pitchers and the rest being in the middle of the pack.

[PDX Twin]

I agree that Portland will never adequately support an MLB franchise. They can get 20K out to see basketball and soccer games 20-40 times a year, but no chance of getting 30-40K to see baseball 80 times a year. And it seems like Oakland and Tampa Bay are already foundering in a death spiral, with Miami not too far above them. So if there were a market ready for a franchise there are several available without expansion.

 

Without meaningful revenue sharing, I can't see the economics of expansion working out. They would just be adding two more teams at the poverty line as feeders and victims for the big-money teams.

 

This might be very attractive to the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs though. Two more teams to divide up the available young stars more thinly so that there is less competition for them and more young players being groomed as their next free agent stars. Maybe that's why it's being considered ...

[cmoss84]

Let's get a team going in Hawaii. Tell me you wouldn't want to see your team play the Hawaii Hoola Hoopers. Just kidding but seriously.

 

Have the Carolinas ever been considered? Bad spot or good spot? 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

expansion won't solve the revenue problem. If anything, it makes it worse. Only way to use expansion to do this is to put another team in NY and LA, and even then, I'm not sure it solves anything.

 

Honestly, if baseball wanted to expand, I'd think there would be much better markets in central America than Portland or Montreal.

 

that seems unlikely for travel, safety, and other cultural reasons. Mostly travel. 

[Squirrel]

Let's get a team going in Hawaii. Tell me you wouldn't want to see your team play the Hawaii Hoola Hoopers. Just kidding but seriously.

 

Have the Carolinas ever been considered? Bad spot or good spot?

The Carolinas have quite a few minor league teams with Triple A teams in both Charlotte and Durham.

[Thrylos]

If Portland and Montreal want teams, Tampa and the Athletics are good candidates.

 

However:

 

Montreal could not support an MLB baseball franchise previously, why would anyone think that it can do it now? 

 

Portland could not support an NBA franchise previously (much less cost btw), I just don't think that it can support an MLB one.   Even their AAA team (Beavers) had to leave.  Now they got a new AAA team and it averages less than 4K tickets per game.   No way.

 

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I'm not opposed to expansion, but, I would tie it to a reduction of one minor league tier, in A level.  I think there's too many players languishing in the minor leagues; it takes a long time for these guys to move through to get to the majors. By eliminating one tier, you reduce expenses for that tier, and you would have fewer marginal players in the minor leagues. It would make all the other levels more competitive, and would allow for the expansion teams to pick up some players off of other teams' minor leagues. I don't think any other major sport has 28, 29 or 30-year-old players reaching the top level. 

 

As for alignment, I would hope they keep the AL and NL intact, with the same rules they have now. There needs to be some inter-league play – otherwise the Twins and Brewers would never play. That's a lot of revenue for the clubs.

 

As for the proposal from Tracy Ringolsby, I suspect most of it is conjecture on his part. it could be kind of a trial balloon, to see what the reaction is. I hope the Chicago, New York and LA teams are in separate divisions – otherwise it gives those teams a huge advantage in travel.

 

And I would not want the Twins in the northern division with the Yankees and Red Sox – that's a lot of travel for us. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If Portland and Montreal want teams, Tampa and the Athletics are good candidates.

 

However:

 

Montreal could not support an MLB baseball franchise previously, why would anyone think that it can do it now? 

 

Portland could not support an NBA franchise previously (much less cost btw), I just don't think that it can support an MLB one.   Even their AAA team (Beavers) had to leave.  Now they got a new AAA team and it averages less than 4K tickets per game.   No way.

 

Actually, Montreal did support the team before, just the owners wanted to move.

 

The minor league stadium is not near the city. Put one in the city, and it would draw, imo. but I agree, it's not big enough to support a MLB team for 81 games.

[ashbury]

Actually, Montreal did support the team before, just the owners wanted to move.

1) After 1983, they were generally near the bottom of the league in attendance.

2) Didn't the owners get the Marlins, and the league took over the team for a while? So it wasn't just one capricious ownership group.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think the dilution of talent among two additional teams could be problematic. I also wonder about the mechanics and strategy of an expansion draft...

 

In context of the international expansion of the league, I think Montreal and Mexico City make the most sense. Portland is too small, as is Seattle to support teams in both cities, just ask the NBA.

Edited October 17, 2017 by Sconnie

[mikelink45]

No matter what they do, we and everyone else will route for their home team and baseball will continue to be the most popular regional sport while football is national.  In football no one knows all the linemen - just the stars - in Baseball you have to know the entire starting lneup.  In football just remember a few great QBs and they will start every game, in baseball we have five in the rotation and they only pitch half the game.

 

It is a fascinating spectacle and the only reason to expand is to capture more regional markets.  

[caninatl04]

 

It's always a fun topic. I haven't heard anything on it in a long time... But it is fun... 

 

Here are my four divisions, if those are the two new teams (Portland, Montreal):

 

Midwest: Kansas City, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cubs, White Sox, Milwaukee, Toronto, Montreal.

 

 

Ha Ha Ha!

You cannot imagine the complete distain Les Montrealais would have if they were considered "Midwestern".

 

Maybe switch Montreal and Detroit.

[caninatl04]

 

If Portland and Montreal want teams, Tampa and the Athletics are good candidates.

 

However:

 

Montreal could not support an MLB baseball franchise previously, why would anyone think that it can do it now? 

 

Portland could not support an NBA franchise previously (much less cost btw), I just don't think that it can support an MLB one.   Even their AAA team (Beavers) had to leave.  Now they got a new AAA team and it averages less than 4K tickets per game.   No way.

Excellent question re finances and Montreal.  The previous owners were committed to trying to move the team--it really was like the movie Major League.  They didn't even have an English language TV deal.  New owners would probably have to sign a 20+ year lease.

 

This leads to two major differences in funding now compared to then:

First, Canada has gone from having zero all-sports networks to many 9the family of TSN's in English and French and SportsNet), and they are hungry for programming.  There would be decent TV deals.  Second, the new stadium would be (I) not only in downtown, but (ii) a baseball stadium with seats that face the field, which would no longer be made of green linoleum.  

 

On a different note:  I think moving the A's to Portland and the Rays to, well, anywhere (Nashville, Charlotte, Montreal) might precede any expansion. 

 

Finally, Charlotte's desirability lost some steam following the bank-led Great Recession.

[spinowner]

I think expansion will happen someday, but probably (hopefully) not for at least another 20 years. As several have mentioned, the Rays and A's are barely hanging on. Before expanding, first identify the 30 best markets in North America and put the existing 30 teams in those markets.

Expansion should happen only if two conditions are met: One, there are 32 markets capable of satisfactorily supporting a major league team, and, two, there is a talent pool (especially pitching) capable of satisfactorily populating 32 major league rosters. It's kind of fun to think about what expansion might look like if and when that happens but it's essentially pointless until that time. I will say this, however. Instead of creating divisions and then deciding how the postseason would be set up, it should be looked at from the other direction. Decide how the postseason should be set up and then create divisions to facilitate that.

[laloesch]

Excellent question re finances and Montreal.  The previous owners were committed to trying to move the team--it really was like the movie Major League.  They didn't even have an English language TV deal.  New owners would probably have to sign a 20+ year lease.

 

This leads to two major differences in funding now compared to then:

First, Canada has gone from having zero all-sports networks to many 9the family of TSN's in English and French and SportsNet), and they are hungry for programming.  There would be decent TV deals.  Second, the new stadium would be (I) not only in downtown, but (ii) a baseball stadium with seats that face the field, which would no longer be made of green linoleum.  

 

On a different note:  I think moving the A's to Portland and the Rays to, well, anywhere (Nashville, Charlotte, Montreal) might precede any expansion. 

 

Finally, Charlotte's desirability lost some steam following the bank-led Great Recession.

Charlotte is booming again. As someone who has lived in DC, Cincy, Nashville, Buffalo, Twin Cities and now Charlotte i can honestly say that they could support a team. Charlotte is hungry for baseball. The banking sector is BOOMING in Charlotte and they have scores of other business now. The AAA Knights have ranked #1 in attendance since 2014 after BB&T ballpark opened downtown. The AAA Nashville Sounds also have high attendance numbers and Nashville has a vibrant growing downtown and is a central distribution center for companies in the midwest. Both cities are ripe for MLB baseball in my opinion.

[twinfan]

I can see expansion but they had better keep the Twins out of the same division as the Yankees are in. That would be a disaster for this franchise. Oh, it may help attendance for home games vs the Yanks but I do not think they would get a good chance to compete with the big money Yanks (not to mention the Mets and Boston as well). Hopefully they can keep us in a Central division with teams like Cleveland, both Chicagos, Detroit and St Louis and Pittsburgh. Maybe put Philly in that North division. If they keep the American and National Leagues, then have 2 divisions of 8 teams each with 8 teams in each league making the playoffs and reduce the regular season to end in mid-September then start the playoffs with best of 5 series.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

that seems unlikely for travel, safety, and other cultural reasons. Mostly travel. 

 

To a point. Baseball is very popular in Central America, and there are huge cities that could support teams. I agree on travel/safety (depending on where they go), but those west coast trips are long too. I just don't see Portland/Montreal being a success. Montreal already failed once, and did so miserably. Portland isn't big enough. Indianapolis is a much larger market without a team (and I don't see one here either).

 

and yes... expansion without fixing revenue inequality will kill the sport.

[Blake]

 

The minute we started interleague play baseball has been moving towards this. I’m assuming DH for all and doing away with the National and American Leagues. I don’t like it.

I say add a team to each league, have 4 divisions of 4 teams and do away with interleague play and return to how it was and quit messing with it. And align teams to keep them in the leagues they are in already but create the extra division.
NL:
East - Mets, Nats, Phillies, Pirates
South - Braves, Reds, Marlins, expansion team tbd (not Montreal)
Midwest - Cubs, Brewers, Cards, Rockies
West - DBacks, Dodgers, Giants, Padres

If Montreal is the team in the mix, put them in the East Division and move the Nats to the South Division.

AL:
East - Boston, NY, Orioles, Toronto
South - Tampa, Astros, Rangers, KC
Midwest - Cleveland, Detroit, ChiSox, Twins
West - Seattle, A’s, Angels, expansion team tbd (assuming Portland)

As for playoffs not sure how I’d work it. No WC game. Four division winners play a best of 5, then best of 7 for league championship, then onto WS. If the goal is to expand the playoffs then the top 2 of each division play a best of 3 series.

Yeah, I like ground rules and the DH/Pitcher swings the bat is the ultimate ground rule.