Monitor: Manager of the Year and Fired?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

No question that Buxton needed to be with the team, batting at the bottom of the order until he started to see the ball and get his timing down. This was absolutely the right call. If Buxton spends any significant time in AAA this year, the Twins don't make the playoffs and don't finish over .500.

Agree.

It was a painful 5 weeks or so, but the pitchers that Buck had to practice against don't pitch in AAA.

[Shaitan]

 

I hear a lot about platooning, but roster construction in todays game, with 5 man rotations and larger bullpens than before, doesnt lend itself to platooning as much as it did before.

25 man roster, 13 pitcher leaves 12 position players. 9 position players play in the AL (8 on the field, one at DH). There just isnt much room to move around and play splits as much as some seem to want.

 

They platooned the pitching staff this year, if that's a thing.

[kellyvance]

Molitor has done absolutely nothing to be fired for. Nothing.  Bunting is a part of the game and when you have fast guys, you do it more often . The bullpen was made up of some guys with potential and a few retreads that didn't pan out. I don't like platooning either. It should be done only out of necessity. 

 

Molitor should be a candidate for MOY, and only Tito is a close competitor. The improvement on this club, especially with the injuries,Sano, Hughes, etc   has been amazing. He worked with the kids in the minors and now he gets to manage them in the Show. It is fitting and proper. 

 

The same people that call for Molitor to be fired wanted to trade Brian Doozier and Ervin for unproven prospects. With Doze they said he had peaked. He is getting better every year.  Fewer HRs this year, but a 30 HR type production is really, really good.  Plus he is learning to hit the other way. And he is a leader. 

 

Ervin is a leader too, and the best pitcher we have.  I hope he wins the WC game.

 

If we had traded Doze and Erv, we would have 65 wins.  Instead, the Twins are doing something that has never been done before in baseball history.  

[DaveW]

I'm not a huge Molly fan, but he most certainly deserves another year. The front office did NOTHING of note to actually improve this team, and while he has had his share of mistakes, he has been the manager for one of the best turnarounds in league history.

He definitely deserves at least one more year.

Firing him after this season would be cowardice and a waste of a season to begin with.

[ThejacKmp]

Molitor's incessant bunting (I agree, not a fireable offense on its own), refusal to platoon players based on their splits and a tendency to use bullpen pitchers against their splits (Boshers and Breslow come to mind).  

 

....

 

Playing Adrianza in LF despite having Granite on the bench drives me insane.  Adrianza's bat isn't that much of a difference maker.  

 

...

 

I also tend to credit the assistant coaches with most of the improvement of individual players.  They're the ones that work with the players the most.  That's not to say that Molitor doesn't get any credit for it since I do feel that he's a good instructor.

 

1.) Not sure you can complain about a lack of platooning and then want Granite to be the 4th OF in place of Adrianza. Adrianza bats from the right and this is a way better platoon mate for Kepler (though Kepler mashing lefties of late might change the need). His glove has played in the OF (not a given, see Escobar, Eduardo) and his OPS is 80 points higher. At the least, I think it's a pretty lame criticism of Molitor.

 

2.) Assistant coaches are great but Molitor is running the show and he should get a lot of credit for MLB player development. He's the manager of those coaches as well and is doing a good job of letting his coaches coach.

 

I won't be heartbroken if Molitor doesn't come back. Mostly because of the incessant sacrifice bunting. But I think there's an assumption on TD that Molly is old school and resistant to stats. I don't see that to be true - I think he's an incredibly competitive guy and seems like an old dog who can learn some new tricks. I'll also say that I've never heard a peep from the FO about bunting. Perhaps they have some stats that show it's useful sometimes. Perhaps they don't think it's a big deal.

[mazeville]

 

if "Monitor" gets credit for improving 20+ games in the loss column from 2016 to 2017, does he get the blame for 2015-2016 24 game swing?

 

He's the same manager, making the same nonsensical decisions.

 

No, he didn't do a good job last year, and I would have been perfectly fine if he got fired. 

 

There are also other elements to the performance last year, notably the dumb Sano-in-right-field experiment; a complete lack of a shortstop; no pitching after Santana and a disaster of a bullpen. On top of that, you had a GM who was 10 years behind the times in terms of analytics and scouting.

 

But, again, he did a bad job.

 

But he got a second chance, and the team has a 20-plus game improvement. And now he's had two of three years in which the team has outperformed its expectations by a considerable amount. So yeah, he deserves to keep managing.

[Thrylos]

 

The front office did NOTHING of note to actually improve this team,

 

a. They hired a hitting coach who actually has been working with and improving hitters

b. They hired an analytics coach who helps setting up the defense based on matchups and previous success

c. They got one of the best defensive catchers on board

d. They got rid of veterans (Plouffe) so Sano will not play at the outfield again.

 

That resulted from being 19th in wRC+ (95) in 2016  to br tied for 6th in wRC+ (101) in 2017, 29th in Fangraphs Defense (-45.7) in 2016  to 10th in Fangraphs Defense (12.4) in 2017, which had direct effect in runs allowed.  From being tied for 30th in ERA (5.09) in 2016 they moved up to 22nd in ERA (4.64) in 2017 while they remained pretty much the same in FIP(2016 27th in FIP (4.57)and 2017 26th (4.74).

 

Facts and data said that they did a lot.   Unfortunately it seems that the pitching coach came with Molly in 2017.  That is the biggest area of concern and I bet that it will be addressed this off-season, because the pitching has been regressed as actual FIP goes, despite the fact that the better defense (for which the FO gets the credit) bailed it out.  Allen needs to go, and he will go, even if it will take Molly to go too...

[wsnydes]

 

1.) Not sure you can complain about a lack of platooning and then want Granite to be the 4th OF in place of Adrianza. Adrianza bats from the right and this is a way better platoon mate for Kepler (though Kepler mashing lefties of late might change the need). His glove has played in the OF (not a given, see Escobar, Eduardo) and his OPS is 80 points higher. At the least, I think it's a pretty lame criticism of Molitor.

2.) Assistant coaches are great but Molitor is running the show and he should get a lot of credit for MLB player development. He's the manager of those coaches as well and is doing a good job of letting his coaches coach.

I won't be heartbroken if Molitor doesn't come back. Mostly because of the incessant sacrifice bunting. But I think there's an assumption on TD that Molly is old school and resistant to stats. I don't see that to be true - I think he's an incredibly competitive guy and seems like an old dog who can learn some new tricks. I'll also say that I've never heard a peep from the FO about bunting. Perhaps they have some stats that show it's useful sometimes. Perhaps they don't think it's a big deal.

Adrianza in LF and platooning are two different things, in the context of my point anyway.  I realize that I may not have been clear about it.  I don't want Adrianza in LF at all.  I get what Molitor is doing, I simply don't agree with it because I'll take the defense either a Kepler or Granite supply over watching Adrianza watch balls drop behind the SS because he isn't familiar with LF.  I will concede that at times during the season, roster construction has hampered his ability to platoon players.  September is not one of those times however.

 

If Molitor is to get much of the credit for letting his coaches coach this season, does he get much of the blame for not overriding and/or doing a better job with his coaches last season when what they were trying to do wasn't working?  Perhaps he was the one that wanted the offseason changes to begin with, I don't know.  For what it's worth, I do think he's a good instructor and has a wealth of knowledge of the game.  I'll never say otherwise.  My quarrels with him are all game management issues, which is what I look for in a field manager.

 

I don't think Molitor is opposed to analytics or change, nor have I said that I thought he was.  I simply don't believe that he's as up to speed on them as the new FO is.  I do think he's got some old school thinking, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.  In my initial post, I mentioned that the decision will likely hinge on how much the FO thinks Molitor accepts the analytics.   

 

I'm not sure why the FO would comment on the bunting publicly.  That isn't their place, especially publicly.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

No, he didn't do a good job last year, and I would have been perfectly fine if he got fired.

 

There are also other elements to the performance last year, notably the dumb Sano-in-right-field experiment; a complete lack of a shortstop; no pitching after Santana and a disaster of a bullpen. On top of that, you had a GM who was 10 years behind the times in terms of analytics and scouting.

 

But, again, he did a bad job.

 

But he got a second chance, and the team has a 20-plus game improvement. And now he's had two of three years in which the team has outperformed its expectations by a considerable amount. So yeah, he deserves to keep managing.

great rebuttal. I very much appreciate a good discussion.

 

Results are very important, so is process. I go back to not only did the team lose 103 games last year, but also the decision making is just terrible.

 

If Molly had shown the ability to manage the bullpen effectively so as to utilize all 8 of them to keep players rested. If he had trusted the research that says bunting is bad and at the very least not put down the sac bunt signal.

 

If his lineups made any sense at all, I could look past the 103 loss season and give him credit for 2017.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Allen needs to go, and he will go, even if it will take Molly to go too...

 

Yeah, because Allen was blessed with such obvious talent. 

 

Regardless, are you suggesting Molly would fall on his sword if they let Allen go? That makes little sense considering he really wasn't his guy, I recall Molitor wanting Chris Bosio. 

[Thrylos]

 

Yeah, because Allen was blessed with such obvious talent. 

 

Regardless, are you suggesting Molly would fall on his sword if they let Allen go? That makes little sense considering he really wasn't his guy, I recall Molitor wanting Chris Bosio. 

 

And Bosio did not want to come...

[twinsnorth49]

 

And Bosio did not want to come...

So what? 

[Jerr]

 

If the Twins were at 76-86 (or something) last season, Molitor would not be on the conversation for Manager of the Year.  And last season was (partially) Molitor's doing and that should be in consideration this season as well. 

 

I think that Molitor will follow the TK paradeigm (he is 10 years older than Kelly was when he retired), and opt out of the manager job, get to go teach kids, and leave with his head high as someone who led his team to the post-season after a while.

Interesting and I can see that happen.

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

Yah, some guy named Thad just called me and asked me to fire a guy named Paul for him. I was like, whatever, Thad. 

 

Wonder if this is what that was about. 

[Kwak]

 

If the Twins were at 76-86 (or something) last season, Molitor would not be on the conversation for Manager of the Year.  And last season was (partially) Molitor's doing and that should be in consideration this season as well. 

 

I think that Molitor will follow the TK paradeigm (he is 10 years older than Kelly was when he retired), and opt out of the manager job, get to go teach kids, and leave with his head high as someone who led his team to the post-season after a while.

Could be right.  I know one of the Ft. Myers crowd, he's a professional BSer, who spends a lot of time at the ST stadium and "listens to people".  He suggested to me that Molitor is tired of the travel, doesn't need the money (or the BS) from being a manager.  He simply wanted the chance to demonstrate that he could "manage a winner".  All of that sounds "reasonable" to me--and is believeable.  Bottom line--Molitor wouldn't be fired (or "non extended", e.g. "Dougie"), he would simply "walk away" and do something else with his life.

[old nurse]

 

Molitor's insistence on bunting against all statistics and research alone is enough to get him fired. If you are going with a statistically minded team you cannot have a manager who consistently gives away outs while simultaneously reducing the chances of scoring a run.

The work has been done. The data is clear.

If he wants to play 1960's baseball he should do it somewhere else.

Syayisic show that if you are playing for one run bunting increases the odds. It decreases your odds for three runs.

[Craig Arko]

I'd definitely vote for it.

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Syayisic show that if you are playing for one run bunting increases the odds. It decreases your odds for three runs.

When I look at this chart (the middle table is the chance that a run will score at some point in the inning) that does not appear to be the case. There are other charts or statistics that you might point me to and I would be happy to look at those.

 

P.S. Cannot remember who referenced this link, but it was one of you fine TD posters. Thank you

[caninatl04]

Two tangents:

 

• I agree that bunting with a man on first is old school and probably redundant given the number of Twins who could steal second.  But, bunting with men on 1st AND 2nd in close games makes more sense. That said, someone needs to remind the Twins that it IS legal to steal 3rd-- a base many claim is easier to steal than 2nd.
• I hope the platooning problem will sort itself out if the Twins can find a right-hand hitting 1B / 4th OF / DH with a 800+ OPS versus LHP.

[yarnivek1972]

The platooning problem will sort itself out when/if Kepler starts to hit LHP even a little bit. He has had a good week vs LHP, but his overall numbers vs LHP would make Jacque Jones cringe.

 

None of the other regulars has a serious enough split to even consider platooning other than Castro's career mark.

[Wizard11]

For my part, I really enjoyed Dozier's bunt in Detroit. ;-)

[Dantes929]

 

 

Two tangents:

 

• I agree that bunting with a man on first is old school and probably redundant given the number of Twins who could steal second.  But, bunting with men on 1st AND 2nd in close games makes more sense. That said, someone needs to remind the Twins that it IS legal to steal 3rd-- a base many claim is easier to steal than 2nd.
• I hope the platooning problem will sort itself out if the Twins can find a right-hand hitting 1B / 4th OF / DH with a 800+ OPS versus LHP.

 

I have been hoping for more double steals.  Especially with Buxton on 2nd.   

[brvama]

A ton of great comments! IMHO, Molitor's return depends solely on his relationship with the FO and their evaluation of his adaptation and implementation of their mission. I don't believe he's done anything seriously out of whack to prevent a return. From the eye test he seems to accept most changes, including analytics, or at least doesn't get it the way.

 

On the platooning issue, who would be platooned? Kepler has struggled against lefties and has sat for many, but I'm not wanting to turn him into a platoon player with his age and ability. I think Molitor has done a very good job handling the fielders, other than perhaps Vargas. I like that most of the positions have been stable all year, unlike last year, and believe that has been beneficial to the team's success.

[Dantes929]

 

Molitor isn't the reason the Twins are finding themselves in the playoffs.

 

- "Improved defense" which is almost entirely attributed to having Buxton for the full year. Yes, Molitor has claimed credit for this, stating that before the season started he "had a talk" with the team about defense.

 

- An American league that will likely produce a grand total of 5 teams over .500.

 

- An MLB that had a down year for pitching and a power hitting renaissance, which means the weak Twins pitching is less of a liability. The teams with good pitching are all going to be in the playoffs, BTW.

 

What does Molitor truly deserve credit for? This is a legit question. I see essentially the same manager I saw last year, but with better hitting, defense, and pitching. He still sends guys to the minors at strange times, makes strange decisions for starting pitchers in spot-starts, holds people in the minors a little too long, doesn't know when to pull a pitcher from a game, etc. And yeah, some of you are itching to hit "reply" to say it's the front office making some of those decisions -- if that's true I'm not sure why Molitor claims credit for the decisions.

 

I'm sure he's a great guy, and hey, there might not be a better manager out there on the cheap. However, I'm not sure what is plusses are. The players are fighting on their own this year, and if you ask Molitor what happened, he wouldn't be able to tell you (apart from the first bullet point above: defense.  Which again, he thinks he alone fixed).

I agree with you 100% but also believe it can be said about almost any manager out there.   Gardy was top two Manager of the Year 6 times.   This happened to coincide with Santana, Nathan, Radke, Morneau, Mauer, Cuddyer, etc, etc on the team.    I actually think his worst year was the year he won the award because choices that were forced upon him worked out and in some cases were the choices he should have made without the injuries.  I don't think he got many votes when the Twins were fielding  a AAA team the last 5 years of his career.   Does Molitor get credit for putting Escobar in there and Escobar actually doing better than Sano might have done?    Kind of lucky.    Should Molitor get credit for Buxton, Rosario and Gibson putting it together?    Probably not any more than he gets the blame for Nunez being the only worthwhile performer in the first half of 2016 at any position.   Lets look at Kelly.    He sure got a lot of credit but I don't think Morris and Knoblach alone were responsible for going from last to first.   Did he manage poorly in 1990 and magically manage great in 91.    Should a team that had the talent to win two WS have only made the playoffs twice?  I don't think Molitor is a baseball genius but I don't see any baseball geniuses managing any other teams either.    I said before you have Scioscia and then all the rest that you can pick out of a barrel.    If you said   Scioscia should be in the barrel also I probably wouldn't argue much.

[spinowner]

 

Can you fire someone who doesn't have a contract? It isn't really a firing if he just coached/played out his contract and didn't get offered a new deal, right?

I don't know. Maybe we should spend 10 pages discussing this like we did regarding another manager's contract non-renewal.

[yarnivek1972]

The bottom line is that Falvey deserves to have someone of his choosing in the dugout. IMO that is all that matters. It's more about Falvey than Molitor I think.

[laloesch]

Not a fan of his management style, still too old school for today's game.  Also not a fan AT ALL of his bullpen usage (again the usage not the talent).   His lineups often times don't make a whole lot of sense either.  On a veteran team with lots of mature talent he'd be okay, but not this young team right now. 

 

I agree with some of the other posters here.  I think they've won in spite of his managing, not because of it.  I've said it before and i'll say it again, Twins misfired badly not hiring Lovullo over Molitor.  By all accounts Torey Lovullo has done a fantastic job in Arizona and is well like by his players.  Now managing a surging Diamondbacks.

[dbminn]

​

I agree with some of the other posters here.  I think they've won in spite of his managing, not because of it.  I've said it before and i'll say it again, Twins misfired badly not hiring Lovullo over Molitor.  By all accounts Torey Lovullo has done a fantastic job in Arizona and is well like by his players.  Now managing a surging Diamondbacks.

With Gardenhire as Lovullo's bench coach

[DocBauer]

I won't be upset if he's gone simply because the new regime simply sees a different direction going forward for this team, especially considering youth, analytics, etc.

 

But to me, Molitor deserves to come back. 2 out of 3 years he wins and is, presumably, in the playoffs one of those and didn't miss the other by much and went down to the last dew games of the season.

 

His team and all the players on it have seemingly improved. Sure, tons of credit to the coaching staff, which Molitor helps select and oversee.

 

This team plays hard, has fun and believes in themselves. There has not been a single utterance that I'm aware of regarding player disgruntlment with Molitor or any of his coaches.

 

Is the bunting a bit ridiculous? Have unseen questionable calls andnusage of pitchers at times? Yes to both. But I've seen Molitor get better the second half with lineup construction, pitching decisions, etc.

 

Never a manager at ANY level before getting the Twins job. I think he's been learning on the fly a bit, but I DO think he's been learning and growing.

[old nurse]

 

When I look at this chart (the middle table is the chance that a run will score at some point in the inning) that does not appear to be the case. There are other charts or statistics that you might point me to and I would be happy to look at those.

 

P.S. Cannot remember who referenced this link, but it was one of you fine TD posters. Thank you

Your chart does not account  for bunting and the prevention of a double play.  It does not prove that a sacrifice lowers the potential of scoring one run.