Monitor: Manager of the Year and Fired?

[Doctor Wu]

I go back and forth on whether Molitor deserves a new contract or not. On one hand, as others have said, he seems like an intelligent, knowledgeable baseball mind with an ability to keep his team motivated. On the other hand, some of his in-game moves can be puzzling if not maddening. I imagine this decision has turned into a big dilemma for Falvey. You enter a "rebuilding" season in which you didn't have any thought of contending, and suddenly as the last week of the season arrives, you are looking at the wildcard game. How much credit to you give the manager that you hadn't hired? It would be pretty poor PR to not rehire the manager that led his team from a 100-loss season to a playoff spot the following year, but to sign him to only a 1-year extension would seem like an insult, while a multi-year deal might not be what Falvey is comfortable with either. Could turn into quite the soap opera!

[DaveW]

Yeah the bunting sucks, but the Twins have scored the 3rd most runs in baseball, he must be doing something right, right?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Interesting comments on both sides of the question. Obviously a lot of intelligent baseball guys on TD. Except for me of course.

 

Having thrown myself on the Sword of Ignorance, I still have the temerity to make two observations; if the FO wants to replace Molly because he doesn't worship at the Altar of Analytics, they are letting the tail wag the dog. If their goal is to win games. On the other hand if their goal is to prove themselves gurus, Molly's toast.

 

Secondly, if the FO is taking everything into consideration, not just the use of analytics, they have a 50/50 chance of hitting a homerun or striking out regarding Molly. Careful analysis may tell them they need to fake a bunt.

 

My choice has always been Dougie. But that bridge has been burned.

 

to be clear, you are stating that if they don't agree on how a team should be run, "they don't care about winning, only about proving themselves gurus"? That's your stance?

[Doomtints]

Is Molitor under contract for next year?

 

Semantics, sure, but can he actually be fired?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah the bunting sucks, but the Twins have scored the 3rd most runs in baseball, he must be doing something right, right?

 

That's terrible use of logic, and I know you know that.

 

If I drive home drunk and don't get in an accident two times in a row, I'm not doing something right....

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

That's terrible use of logic, and I know you know that.

 

If I drive home drunk and don't get in an accident two times in a row, I'm not doing something right....

 

But if you drive home sober, yet occasionally forget to use your right turn signal, and don't get in an accident 100 times in a row, are you doing something right then? That fits much better for what Molitor is actually doing.

 

The love for bunting is an annoyance, but hardly pitchfork-worthy.

[jimbo92107]

Molitor taught Byron Buxton how to read a pitcher's moves, how to position himself, how to get the fastest initial burst, how to run a direct route to second, how to time his slide. Buxton is now the very best base stealer in the league, bar none. Buxton now studies game films of the opposing starter, and he knows what to look for. 

 

Molitor and James Rowson taught the whole team how to bunt correctly, making this "1960's tactic" into an effective tool for scoring runs. It may seem old fashioned, but if you're one run ahead at the end, you win. Molitor and Rowson also have the whole batting order taking professional at-bats. Even Rosario!

 

Despite a bullpen that started off terribly, despite a starting rotation that had only ONE reliable pitcher, Molitor has managed to coax over 80 wins from this uneven pitching staff. That's not just good managing, that's riding a unicycle on a tightrope while juggling chainsaws. 

 

Manager of the Year? No idea, I don't watch other managers. But Paul Molitor is good enough for me, and he's got this immature team with a dubious pitching staff into the playoffs. They are not going to go far in the playoffs, not with Cleveland, Houston and the Dodgers waiting. But next season, when Gonsalves and a few others arrive, they'll be better. Molitor has added value to this team. 

[yarnivek1972]

Why skip anyone at this point? The Twins could close out the season 0-6 and they’re still nearly guaranteed a postseason spot.

 

If anything, I want to see more Colon/Gee/garbage over the next week to give the guys who matter a breather.

You skip Colon to keep Santana on track for the WC game. Although it sounds like they will do that by pushing Gibson back to Friday.

 

Interesting decision.

 

It means that Kyle Gibson's final 8 starts of 2017 will be against the White Sox, Blue Jays (2), Royals (2), Padres and Tigers (2). The Tigers currently rank 15th in MLB in OPS. But we saw last week that they are a team that has "mailed it in" and that they have almost no major league reliever. The other four teams rank 23rd, 24th, 25th and 29th in OPS in MLB. All of you buying Gibson's "rebirth" can believe in it as much as you choose. I choose to wait and see how he fares against a halfway decent team before jumping on the bandwagon. Unfortunately, that won't happen this year unless it is in the playoffs.

[Dave The Dastardly]

 

to be clear, you are stating that if they don't agree on how a team should be run, "they don't care about winning, only about proving themselves gurus"? That's your stance?

Not quite. What I'm trying to say is the goal of every team is to win games. (Unless of course you're the Cleveland Browns.). So if a team is winning games, using attaining the playoffs as a measuring stick, and the Twins make the play-offs, why would the FO want to replace the manager that is responsible for making the play-offs? Because he didn't use analytics to win? That's the tail-wagging-the-dog thing I mentioned. IF the FO wants to make the team more analytic intense, there are other options other than replacing a manager to accomplish that goal. Give your manager more training in that department for example. But that's not newsworthy. Replacing a manager is newsworthy and there's only one part of the organization that will get the press, good or bad, for that decision; the Front Office. Therefore if the FO replaces Molly for the reason he doesn't utilize "enough" analytics, and his replacement is touted as an analytics-focused manager but the Twins don't make the play-offs the following year, the FO (and analytics) is going to take it on the chin from the fans. But if the new analytics-focused manager gets the team further into the play-offs in the 2018 season, the FO will be revered for their wisdom and their guru status will be carved in stone. So we're looking at a 50/50 proposition with the FO benefiting the most IF the replacement is more successful than Molly.

 

But 50/50 doesn't favor reward over risk. That's why I suggested, as others have, the FO may want to bunt. In other words, take themselves out of the limelight (not going for a homerun) by convincing Molly to publicly retire for some sort of concocted "personal" reasons. They are then free to hire their analytics guy with no baggage. If the guy fails to improve the team the FO can shrug and say they would have preferred Molly but the guy retired on us, taking themselves off the hook for his departure. And on the other hand if the new guy takes the Twins to new heights, they're back in guru status. Win/win for the FO.

 

This my long-winded conclusion as to why I believe if the FO replaces Molly for a publicly stated reason of not being "into" analytics, they are more concerned about proving the worth of analytics, and their own standing in analytics, than they are in improving the Twins for improvement sake.

 

Obi Wan is calling. I must pause now for further navel reflection.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not quite. What I'm trying to say is the goal of every team is to win games. (Unless of course you're the Cleveland Browns.). So if a team is winning games, using attaining the playoffs as a measuring stick, and the Twins make the play-offs,

 

 

snip.....

 

 

This my long-winded conclusion as to why I believe if the FO replaces Molly for a publicly stated reason of not being "into" analytics, they are more concerned about proving the worth of analytics, and their own standing in analytics, than they are in improving the Twins for improvement sake.

 

Obi Wan is calling. I must pause now for further navel reflection.

 

This is a great post, even if we disagree. thanks.

[Major League Ready]

I just don’t know the answer to some of the most important elements in terms of whether I think they should extend Molitor. 

 

Does he lead / utilize his coaching staff.  Does he identify objectives and use his staff effectively to pursue those objectives?

 

Is his experience and method of working with young players a significant part of the development we have seen in our young players?

 

Do the players work hard at developing their skills as a result of his leadership?

 

Does his leadership style help build team chemistry and desire to win.

 

How is he adapting to analytics?  I had heard or read that he is working with someone from the analytics department to construct the somewhat unusual lineups that some have criticized.  It does appear to be working.

[jkcarew]

I'm really conflicted on this one.  I simultaneously admire Molitor for many reasons and at the same time don't think he's a great in-game manager.  I do, however, think he's intelligent and fully capable of adapting to and/or incorporating newer tools like analytics.  He doesn't strike me as a close-minded thinker.

 

While this year's results can be looked at as him having "earned" a new contract, I would expect (and want) the Twins to see if there is something better available.  I do think this year's results ratchet up the pressure on the front office to be right, if they in fact go a different direction...(assuming Molitor wants to continue).

[h2oface]

 

Why skip anyone at this point? The Twins could close out the season 0-6 and they’re still nearly guaranteed a postseason spot.

If anything, I want to see more Colon/Gee/garbage over the next week to give the guys who matter a breather.

 

..... and how did that work for the last 11 games of 2010 and the subsequent playoff appearance?

[h2oface]

 

He's struggled in his last three starts (one of which he still completed six innings), yet in his previous 8 he was 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA (and averaging 6 2/3 IP per start).

 

You don't just give the hook to guys who are going through a small rough patch, particularly when they've been so effective for you previously. What kind of message would that send to the team? I bet every one of those players consider Colon one the guys who got them to where they are now. How deflating would it be to see their manager now just toss that guy aside? Nope, not a smart move for a manager to make, not when they should be riding high and feeling good about being on the brink of the postseason.      

 

Colon is not even a real Minnesota Twin. He is a cast off. And you really need to look at his whole season, here. I do. The lucky month is the outlier.

 

If you want him around to eat with the young guys, and talk to them, etc, ..... make him a coach. He can pitch batting practice.

[h2oface]

 

Molitor and James Rowson taught the whole team how to bunt correctly, making this "1960's tactic" into an effective tool for scoring runs.

 

Really? Is that why so many of the bunt attempts are putrid? And Still? This is something that should have been done, if it was going to be so over used, in the preseason. If the way this team bunts is correctly, then there is a real problem.

 

I am not saying Molitor is horrible. He has surely been an assest in many ways. I am saying that he is not the right guy to move forward. Just as Theo went with Maddon, it is time. Paul got his three years. Thank you Paul, and Paul should thank the Twins. 

[h2oface]

 

Is Molitor under contract for next year?

 

Semantics, sure, but can he actually be fired?

 

Exactly. An expired contract is not firing. But some seem to embrace it here as the same thing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Exactly. An expired contract is not firing. But some seem to embrace it here as the same thing.

 

It's pretty much a distinction w/o a difference to the employee. I would embrace it as the same things if I was him.

[IndianaTwin]

I'm fine with extending Molitor. 

 

But unless I've missed it, I haven't heard anyone specifically mention the easiest way to replace him if that's what they want to do.

 

Buy him out. Make it worth his while to step upstairs.

 

Say to him, "This year, we paid you $1 million to manage the team. (I couldn't find his actual salary, but according to this list https://www.boydsbets.com/highest-paid-mlb-mangers/ and the others on the list, it's hard to imagine it's more than that.) We liked how you did this, and this, and this (maybe... taught baserunning in spring training, showed Buxton how to bunt and steal, whatever). However, we weren't enamored with how you did that, and that, and that (maybe... used the bunt too much, didn't manage the bullpen well, whatever). We also know how much the fans (other than some of those on Twins Daily) love you, and how popular you are on the Winter Caravan.

 

"Thus, we'd like to name you Special Assistant to the President, and have you do this, this, and this, using your excellent teaching skills. You can do that this, this, and this in the six weeks of spring training and on three two-week trips throughout the minors spread out over the regular season, with HOF Weekend guaranteed to be off. We'll meet weekly to get your input and insights on how players are doing, by conference call if you prefer. You'd still be a hit on the Winter Caravan, but you won't have to worry about doing that, that, and that. You also won't have to worry about the headaches of day-to-day managing. AND most importantly, you have permission to chime in as much as you want on Twins Daily, perhaps under the username 'I'm Not Really Mollie.'

 

"And to do all that, we'll give you the same $1 million."

 

That's chump change, folks. If they're paying Nolasco $4 million to not pitch for the Twins, isn't it reasonable to pay $1 million to have Molitor not manage, particularly if they still get to tap into his considerable strengths?

 

But I'm still fine with extending him. 

[h2oface]

 

I'm fine with extending Molitor. 

 

But unless I've missed it, I haven't heard anyone specifically mention the easiest way to replace him if that's what they want to do.

 

Buy him out. Make it worth his while to step upstairs.

 

Say to him, "This year, we paid you $1 million to manage the team. (I couldn't find his actual salary, but according to this list https://www.boydsbets.com/highest-paid-mlb-mangers/ and the others on the list, it's hard to imagine it's more than that.) We liked how you did this, and this, and this (maybe... taught baserunning in spring training, showed Buxton how to bunt and steal, whatever). However, we weren't enamored with how you did that, and that, and that (maybe... used the bunt too much, didn't manage the bullpen well, whatever). We also know how much the fans (other than some of those on Twins Daily) love you, and how popular you are on the Winter Caravan.

 

"Thus, we'd like to name you Special Assistant to the President, and have you do this, this, and this, using your excellent teaching skills. You can do that this, this, and this in the six weeks of spring training and on three two-week trips throughout the minors spread out over the regular season, with HOF Weekend guaranteed to be off. We'll meet weekly to get your input and insights on how players are doing, by conference call if you prefer. You'd still be a hit on the Winter Caravan, but you won't have to worry about doing that, that, and that. You also won't have to worry about the headaches of day-to-day managing. AND most importantly, you have permission to chime in as much as you want on Twins Daily, perhaps under the username 'I'm Not Really Mollie.'

 

"And to do all that, we'll give you the same $1 million."

 

That's chump change, folks. If they're paying Nolasco $4 million to not pitch for the Twins, isn't it reasonable to pay $1 million to have Molitor not manage, particularly if they still get to tap into his considerable strengths?

 

But I'm still fine with extending him. 

 

There is no buying out. The contract is over after this year, unless it is extended before it expires. Expired. Completed. Finished. Anything else is a new deal.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Your chart shows the probability  of runs with a plural scoring  Withing that probability  there are separate probabilities of 1 run, 2 runs three runs, four runs etc. The probability of scoring multiple runs goes down with one man out and runner on second but scoring exactly  one run increases   https://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/8/7/4590940/a-statistical-defense-sort-of-of-the-sac-bunt

 

 

This is a pretty insightful article. If the part at the end of the article about the percentage of bunts that turn into hits (or reach on error) is anywhere close to accurate, that changes the equation dramatically. The numbers we've been looking at have only been comparing what happens on a "successful sacrifice bunt" (i.e. runner on first with no out vs. runner on second with one out). But if a significant number of the attempts end up with "runners on first and second with no out," that's even better. (And that number also has to be better than "nobody on base and two outs, because of a double play," of obviously.)

 

There's another factor that I wonder about. It sure seems that when batters show bunt, pitchers throw a lot of balls, hoping to get the batter to bunt a bad pitch. Maybe I'm nuts, but it seems like a lot of times guys with a good eye get to a 2-0 count pretty quickly. If showing bunt for a couple pitches often gets guys into a good hitters count for swinging away, that's also a tipping point in favor of a possible bunt. That's dependent on batters having a good eye, of course, but that's also a learnable skill and would seem to be in Molitor's wheelhouse.

[IndianaTwin]

 

There is no buying out. The contract is over after this year, unless it is extended before it expires. Expired. Completed. Finished. Anything else is a new deal.

 

Right. Technically I should have said, "Offer him a new deal that makes it worth his while to move upstairs."

 

Point is, that would avoid the PR challenge of a sour ending, AND take advantage of his strengths.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

..... and how did that work for the last 11 games of 2010 and the subsequent playoff appearance?

Both Pavano and Liriano held their own in the 2010 postseason. The Yankee starters outperformed them only marginally.

 

It was Duensing who collapsed on the mound, most likely because he's Brian Duensing.

[snepp]

 

It was Duensing who collapsed on the mound, most likely because he's Brian Duensing.

 

Should have traded him for a future MVP or two when we had the chance.

[yarnivek1972]

Both Pavano and Liriano held their own in the 2010 postseason. The Yankee starters outperformed them only marginally.

 

It was Duensing who collapsed on the mound, most likely because he's Brian Duensing.

Duensing would look pretty good in the Twins pen right about now. He has a career 3.5 ERA as a reliever and a career .620 OPS vs LHB.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Duensing would look pretty good in the Twins pen right about now. He has a career 3.5 ERA as a reliever and a career .620 OPS vs LHB.

He dances with being a capable reliever but simply didn't have the stuff for starting.

[DaveW]

Call me a simpleton:

 

I like when teams I root for make the playoffs and give me reason to watch throughout the year.

 

I really like when they do it in years where everyone thought they had no chance.

 

Seems like a weird time to change on the field leadership "just because"

 

I stand by my earlier statement: if Falvey fires Molitor? Pure cowardice/pride,

 

If he keeps him around after this year on the first and ONLY team to make the playoffs after losing 100 games? I will respect that, big time. It shows he is willing to budge/have his opinions change etc that is the true sign of a good leader.

 

Anybody can come in and "fire everyone/clean house" a real leader will adrift where they were maybe wrong early on, come to terms with it, and keep the real assets around.

 

I think they whiffed with Dougie M, I hope they don't. Go 0-2 with Mollie if the Twins happen to not advance to the ALCS or further, mollie deseges one more year, period.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Call me a simpleton:

I like when teams I root for make the playoffs and give me reason to watch throughout the year.

I really like when they do it in years where everyone thought they had no chance.

Seems like a weird time to change on the field leadership "just because"

I stand by my earlier statement: if Falvey fires Molitor? Pure cowardice/pride,

If he keeps him around after this year on the first and ONLY team to make the playoffs after losing 100 games? I will respect that, big time. It shows he is willing to budge/have his opinions change etc that is the true sign of a good leader.

Anybody can come in and "fire everyone/clean house" a real leader will adrift where they were maybe wrong early on, come to terms with it, and keep the real assets around.

I think they whiffed with Dougie M, I hope they don't. Go 0-2 with Mollie if the Twins happen to not advance to the ALCS or further, mollie deseges one more year, period.

 

cowardice to fire a potential MOY? I think not. I'd call that brave. Maybe not smart, I really don't know, but certainly not cowardice. 

 

And what have you seen Molitor change and grow on?

[theJemmer]

If he doesn't screw up the WC game I'm betting he's back. I could see Falvine bringing in a new bench coach to help with in-game strategy. It will come down to how they view his willingness to change.

[VirginSturgeon]

I think he has adapted well with the younger players over time, I love him having confidence in Kepler to get a hit off of Miller last night in the big situation. Obviously it didn't work but Kepler has been hitting lefties better the last 2 weeks and he also had a big double in the 9th. I would extend Molitor 2 years with an option for a 3rd so they can evaluate him with a better bullpen and starting rotation. If he leaves much to be desired after next season, then he can be let go. Go Twins!

[Pardon My Dinger]

I think the Twins win despite him. Wouldn't be upset if he doesn't come back.