Is this a playoff team?

[jkcarew]

If it's considered the playoffs, why do they call it a play-IN game?  Silly semantics, I know.  It's the post-season.  But my feeling is, the Twins would have a decent change in the one-game scenario...and it may as well be us...but probably don't belong in a true playoff series against any legitimate playoff team.

 

Many positive things can be said regarding the season, the meaningful games down the stretch are icing on the cake.  An playoff game or more this year might be painful to endure as fans but would be even more helpful to the team in the long run.

[TwinsCD]

Are they?  Right now, yes.  Should they be?  Probably not.  There's been a lot of smoke and mirrors and patchwork done with the lineup and the pitching staff.  Plus, with how young this team is, one might think that a series like this one would kill all their confidence and might cause them to go into a tailspin.

 

*BUT*

 

Should they play well enough over these last 10 games to get in, then they will have earned it and certainly deserved it.  The maturation of these guys throughout the season has been great to see and whatever experience they can get down the stretch here and in whatever amount of postseason they get to play will be a great building block for 2018.  I liken this, in a way, to another team that I root for in a different sport -- the 2007 Pittsburgh Penguins.  That year, they made it to the playoffs as a very young team and got torched in the first round.  But the experience of dealing with that and the front office learning what needed to be done to bolster what they had helped springboard their run to back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances.  In the Twins case, this 'run' has hopefully given the front office a good look at what needs to be added (and it's a lot on the pitching side) in the offseason.  

 

And yeah, they looked overmatched (grossly at times) in this 3-game series against NYY.  But I want one more shot at them with everything on the line.  If that game went the right way, it would be as amazing as the two World Series wins.  And if it went the wrong way, well, everyone would have expected it anyway.  So there'd be nothing to lose and those fans who are afraid of even playing in that game (whether it's vs NYY or BOS) mystify me since this is why we're fans...living and dying with the team in the biggest games.

[spinowner]

I'm going to be a nitpicker because that's just the kind of guy I am.

Please use the correct terminology. In baseball, ten teams from each league qualify for The Postseason: three division champions and two wild card teams from each league.

In baseball, playoffs refer to the regular season games that are necessary in case of a tie to determine which team(s) qualify for the postseason.

So, now that I have that out of my system, I think the Twins are good enough to be the fifth postseason team in the American League. Is it because of parity among the 5th through 12th best teams or is it because of mediocrity among the 5th through 12th best teams in the league? (Hint: the answer is one that Chief loves to give on game threads.)

I have no expectations about this team. I don't live and die with them. I'm happy when they win and I accept when they lose. I like being happy and I hope they never lose another game this year. But at my advanced age I think I have finally learned to enjoy it all no matter what happens.

[spinowner]

 

The AL has more playoff slots than it does good teams. 

While I generally agree, the AL still has a 154-137 record in interleague games at this point. The AL has 4 good teams, 8 fair teams and 3 bad ones. The NL has 5 good teams, 2 fair teams and 8 bad ones.

[Broker]

Mauer just happens to have the 6th highest BA in the AL. Not too shabby in my book.

[jimmer]

 

Mauer just happens to have the 6th highest BA in the AL. Not too shabby in my book.

And 4th in OBP.  And deserving of a GG.

[old nurse]

In the league they are the fifth or 6th best team. Unfortunately, the drop off between 4 and 5 is significant. In a one game do or die anything can happen.  In winning a 3 game series, the odds would be very long.

[Vanimal46]

Any playoff experience is good experience for the players. I think this is a playoff team... It won't happen often where 83-84 wins gets your favorite ballclub a chip, chair, and a chance! Also, concur with others here that anything is possible in a 1 game SSS.

[Connor Gould]

The Twins seem like they'd be a better playoff team than regular season team. With huge issues in the back of the bullpen and back of the rotation, you can easily hide that in the playoffs by relying on the few good pitchers. Plus, the lineup has a bunch of solid guys instead of relying on a few elite hitters meaning that one player going cold isn't as big a deal.

[Bill Brown69]

Yup, but really no. They still have the highest likelihood of making the last WC slot but to really call this a playoff team we need, in no order

 

Sano to stay healthy and be who we all think he can be

 

A DH to bat behind Sano that might scare an opposing pitcher

 

AT LEAST 1 more good starting pitcher. That is assuming this year's version of Santana and Berrios carries over, and no I am not talking about anyone in the Twins system. Make it a 1-2-3 I don't care but there has to be another established guy.

 

A bullpen that includes someone that was injured this year. We had at least 2-3 guys that would/could have helped this year that couldn't answer the bell. Health and competition next year.

 

All that means is that we are actually closer than we thought at the start of the year. 2 serious signings and health next year and we are right there at the top of the AL.

[Dantes929]

In both of our 1st two losses in Ny we had opportunities to win games with big hits.   Not happening is not the same as won't happen or can't happen.   I think the Twins have shown a resiliency that belies the idea of just folding with the spot light on.  

Ok, it took a while but was enlightening.    I looked back to see what success the Twins had against playoff type pitchers.   The enlightening part was just how few playoff type pitchers there are.  Some teams had none.   These are the pitchers the Twins beat this year.     Didn't include Sale this year but Twins generally have done pretty well against him.

Happ,  Davies,  Verlander,  Cashner,  Gray,  Clevinger twice,  Luber,  Porcello and Montgomery.   List doesn't look that long but like I said there really aren't that many sub 4.00 pitchers out there.

[Dantes929]

Those that think the Twins have no shot are the same ones that thought the 87 Twins had no shot.   If you say "Hey, that team was really special and I knew it all along I call BS.   I won bets from people like you giving me 3-1 odds.    They weren't special before they won in the playoffs.    You think the Twins are hopeless against the Yankees because we went 2-4.   Twins against the top two teams in the East that year were 7-17.   They were 4-8 against the Tigers which is the same winning % but with more games.  But hey, you say we had Viola and Blyleven.  Well, those two were 3-6 against those teams and its not like the wins were against the Tigers top pitchers because Morris and Alexander were 4-0 against us and their 3rd pitcher was 4-1 against us.    That team was not special without the benefit of hindsight.   Heck, the current Twins team has a decent shot at posting the same season record.     

 

http://www.startribune.com/twinscentric-revisiting-1987-and-defeating-the-tigers/332172842/

[mickeymental]

mike trout just struck out to end a one-run game. the guy has obviously stopped trying.

[mickeymental]

 

Those that think the Twins have no shot are the same ones that thought the 87 Twins had no shot.   If you say "Hey, that team was really special and I knew it all along I call BS.   I won bets from people like you giving me 3-1 odds.    They weren't special before they won in the playoffs.    You think the Twins are hopeless against the Yankees because we went 2-4.   Twins against the top two teams in the East that year were 7-17.   They were 4-8 against the Tigers which is the same winning % but with more games.  But hey, you say we had Viola and Blyleven.  Well, those two were 3-6 against those teams and its not like the wins were against the Tigers top pitchers because Morris and Alexander were 4-0 against us and their 3rd pitcher was 4-1 against us.    That team was not special without the benefit of hindsight.   Heck, the current Twins team has a decent shot at posting the same season record.     

 

http://www.startribune.com/twinscentric-revisiting-1987-and-defeating-the-tigers/332172842/

not to mention the sky-is-falling freakout when the '87 twins lost their last five regular-season games ...

[Dantes929]

 

mike trout just struck out to end a one-run game. the guy has obviously stopped trying.

Seriously.   I love those.   Are they daily and I am just missing them or are they just occasional?    If he hit a home run I assume you would have said that about the pitcher.

[Platoon]

If you make the playoffs you are a playoff team. Some seasons are different than others. The increased pressure on the players during this "run" is good experience. And even if they back in, as seems likely, a one game shot is a better chance to advance than a 5 gamer. Are they a "good" team. Not really. But, this will end up defining the change in management. The old regime would have celebrated being again a playoff team, cranked up the ad campaign and raised ticket prices. Rumors of pitching acquisitions would have fueled the hot stove. But in the end, nothing of significance to move to the next level would have occurred. Just the facts that they tried to move Dozier for pitching last year, and whether some like it or not decided that the quality wasn't there to buy in July makes me think that Falvine knows this group still needs a lot of help. Now we see if they can complete the roster, or not. What happens this winter will far more impact this team than anything else has in years.

[jimmer]

The difference between playoffs in '87 and today.

 

In '87, only 4 teams made the postseason. There was one best of seven before making the W Series.  No Wild Card much less a 2nd wild card.

 

Today, 10 teams make the playoffs.  The 2nd wild card team needs to win one game on the road. Then play a five game series, again without home field advantage.  Then win a best of seven series, again without home field advantage. Then if they do that, it's on to the W Series.

 

 

[jimmer]

Angels have 11 games left to gain 2 games on the Twins and the two teams don't face each other.

[Blackjack]

Whatever happens, the young players are gaining experience under pressure, that can only help in the long run. Goto New York, get a well pitched game, a few key hits, and they can win and go onward to play at least three more games. More experience.

 

The best thing is that they are still relevant in late September!!!!! When I'm at duck camp this weekend, we'll be looking up the Twins score.

[gunnarthor]

Man, really nice of the Angels to lose. With 7 left against Detroit we should be ok. But Detroit so far has taken 7 out of the fist 12 games this year. Hopefully, we don't collapse.

[Dantes929]

 

The difference between playoffs in '87 and today.

 

In '87, only 4 teams made the postseason. There was one best of seven before making the W Series.  No Wild Card much less a 2nd wild card.

 

Today, 10 teams make the playoffs.  The 2nd wild card team needs to win one game on the road. Then play a five game series, again without home field advantage.  Then win a best of seven series, again without home field advantage. Then if they do that, it's on to the W Series.

We've had this discussion before and all your points are valid.   The odds are longer now for the Twins to do something similar or identical but the odds were pretty long against the 87 Twins also.   That is all somewhat moot anyway because I was talking about the odds of the Twins beating the Yankees in a one game play in.     The odds of that happening, despite what people have been posting here is much better than the odds the 87 team had against the Tigers in a 7 game series much less winning the whole thing.   Yes, the Twins had home field advantage but the Tigers were 4-2 against the Twins at the Dome during the season and the top 3 for the Tigers were 3-0 there.   The more games you play the more the likelihood of the better team winning.   Yankees are the better team but even the Giants would have a chance of winning a 1 game series.   Twins are better than the Giants.

[Squirrel]

The difference between playoffs in '87 and today.

 

In '87, only 4 teams made the postseason. There was one best of seven before making the W Series.  No Wild Card much less a 2nd wild card.

 

Today, 10 teams make the playoffs.  The 2nd wild card team needs to win one game on the road. Then play a five game series, again without home field advantage.  Then win a best of seven series, again without home field advantage. Then if they do that, it's on to the W Series.

If the Twins do that, then yes, I'd say they were a playoff team.

[Doubles]

The Twins have already won 19 more games this season than last, with 10 games still to play.  I'm fired up that they are vastly improved from last season, that they have returned to playing competent baseball, and that their core of position players should give them a great chance of competing for the foreseeable future should they add help to the pitching staff.  

 

A weird, expanded playoff format has no bearing on my enthusiasm for how much I've enjoyed watching the Twins this season, or for their considerably bright future.

[dbminn]

The Twins started the year with a few proven veterans and a lot of talented youngsters. By the time they start the 2018 season, they are going to have a team full of veterans with playoff experience.

 

Nothing has come easy - several times they've looked down for the count. Each time, they've clawed their way back into contention. Twice, they've been roughed up at home by the Indians. They were routed by the Astros and Dodgers. But they've also swept the Indians, the D-Backs and the Brewers. The Twins have proven their resilience. 

 

Each of the core youngsters has been beat up along the way. Buxton, Polanco and now Kepler have endured horrible slumps. Berrios has been up and down. Sano hasn't been a factor in the stretch - first a slump and then an injury. Rosario has been the most consistent of them all (surprise!). They've experienced a lot in a single season. Yet they're still in the race. 

 

Now, they need to push ahead one more time. The veterans will keep the team focused. They will hit against Detroit. I think they will get just enough pitching to make it into the playoffs. Based on what's already happened, my scenario is plausible. So, yes I think they are a playoff team.

 

Beginning next year, the Twins will be led by the youngsters. I'm optimistic. Let's hope the FO finds the front-line SP and veteran RP needed to become a WS contender in 2018 and beyond.

 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins have already won 19 more games this season than last, with 10 games still to play. I'm fired up that they are vastly improved from last season, that they have returned to playing competent baseball, and that their core of position players should give them a great chance of competing for the foreseeable future should they add help to the pitching staff.

 

So you're "fired up" that they are back to 2015 levels? I am enjoying 2017 too, but I'm not giving them bonus points for being so bad in 2016. Going further than 2015 would be nice.

[Craig Arko]

 

So you're "fired up" that they are back to 2015 levels? I am enjoying 2017 too, but I'm not giving them bonus points for being so bad in 2016. Going further than 2015 would be nice.

Yup. This year seems legit and gives a base to build on. That one seemed like pure luck based on one really good month (May, 2015).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So you're "fired up" that they are back to 2015 levels? I am enjoying 2017 too, but I'm not giving them bonus points for being so bad in 2016. Going further than 2015 would be nice.

I also want to see better but the way the 2015 and 2017 teams got to 83 wins is going to be very different. This looks sustainable, something to build upon. 2015 shouldn't have led to the 2016 disaster but when you get right down to it, that team was really good for a month and mediocre one other month (IIRC).

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's fair. I could see being more encouraged by 2017 than by 2015. But not enough to say I'm fired up by the former enough to disregard the outcome of the final 10 games and postseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's fair. I could see being more encouraged by 2017 than by 2015. But not enough to say I'm fired up by the former enough to disregard the outcome of the final 10 games and postseason.

I'm not disregarding it but it won't tell me whether the season is a success or not. I already feel this season is a success, now it's down to degree of success.

[walt-o-meal]

I take the spirit of the question to be "can the Twins compete in the post-season?"

 

We all have intuitions about it, and they're much appreciated. The maths though, can be more precise than "I think team A is better than team B (and dust hands, having settled the issue)". 

 

For example, Bill James log5 tool uses Bayes' Theorem to predict the probability that team A will defeat team B. Using today's records for Minnesota (.513) and New York (.559), it gives the Twins a .454 chance of winning. That says they're underdogs, but not prohibitively.

 

Should they advance, we can use the same tool with likely ALDS opponent Cleveland (.625), yielding the Twins a .387 chance of winning an individual series game. The binomial distribution then can tell us that the cumulative chance of Minnesota winning 3 or more out of 5 is .295. A steep hill as most would anticipate, but not the Murderhorn.

 

Similarly, anticipating Houston (.616) in the 7-game ALCS gives a .396 chance of our Twins winning an individual game, and .282 chance of winning 4 or more of 7. Boston's win % is a bit lower than Houston's, so the numbers would look a little bit better. Again, I'd prefer to be the favorite, but this would look like another series that's at least worth tuning in to see what happens.

 

I'll be watching. WIll you? Math!