Is this a playoff team?

[Mr. Brooks]

I take the spirit of the question to be "can the Twins compete in the post-season?"

 

We all have intuitions about it, and they're much appreciated. The maths though, can be more precise than "I think team A is better than team B (and dust hands, having settled the issue)".

 

For example, Bill James log5 tool uses Bayes' Theorem to predict the probability that team A will defeat team B. Using today's records for Minnesota (.513) and New York (.559), it gives the Twins a .454 chance of winning. That says they're underdogs, but not prohibitively.

 

Should they advance, we can use the same tool with likely ALDS opponent Cleveland (.625), yielding the Twins a .387 chance of winning an individual series game. The binomial distribution then can tell us that the cumulative chance of Minnesota winning 3 or more out of 5 is .295. A steep hill as most would anticipate, but not the Murderhorn.

 

Similarly, anticipating Houston (.616) in the 7-game ALCS gives a .396 chance of our Twins winning an individual game, and .282 chance of winning 4 or more of 7. Boston's win % is a bit lower than Houston's, so the numbers would look a little bit better. Again, I'd prefer to be the favorite, but this would look like another series that's at least worth tuning in to see what happens.

 

I'll be watching. WIll you? Math!

Bayes Theorem is flawed though when one team has a clear mental block playing the other team.

 

It also doesn't account for home field.

[jimmer]

2 games lead, 10 games left. Liking our odds.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Sure. Any given Sunday. Just don't pretend that the Twins winning two games in July facing pitchers and a lineup they wouldn't see in October means anything.

It might be the margin by which the Twins make it into the playoffs. And if the Twins beat the Yankees in a one-game playoff, the Yankees may have wished they had won those two games in July and faced someone else.

[h2oface]

The only way you can advance, is if you get in. If you get in, even at 83-78, you might just win it. One game at a time........

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I also want to see better but the way the 2015 and 2017 teams got to 83 wins is going to be very different. This looks sustainable, something to build upon. 2015 shouldn't have led to the 2016 disaster but when you get right down to it, that team was really good for a month and mediocre one other month (IIRC).

You know, I was thinking more about this, and maybe we're being too hard on the 2015 team?  Yeah, they were great in May, poor record in June, but they were about .500 the rest of the season, and that's including a poor start in April and punting the last game of the season, some non-health/performance circumstances limiting Ervin's and Sano's contributions, etc.

 

And on a component level, I'm not sure the degree to which today's team is in a better place.  How much has really changed since then?  Sano has probably taken a step back in performance/health.  Buxton looks like he has finally put some things together -- but remember he actually looked OK after he got his feet wet in 2015 too, and he was still arguably the best prospect in the game, so he wasn't starting from zero in an October 2015 forecast.  Same for Berrios, Polanco, and Kepler, who have performed roughly in line with consensus expectations overall since.  And similar for Rosario stepping up this year -- much appreciated, but he did have a rookie season of some promise in 2015.  Those guys all get some credit for actually developing, and that probably pushes 2017 above 2015, but we probably would have forecast some similar development back then too.

 

Trevor May has taken a big step back since then, and Hughes and Milone went from looking like cromulent starters in 2015 to nothing.  Gibson's best season overall was 2015.  Ervin and Dozier are better this year -- but they were fine in 2015 too, and now they are older, so I am not sure how much their future outlook is better.  Mauer is better, but also older.  We signed Castro, but it's not like the 2015 team was doomed to start Suzuki for all eternity -- we knew they were going to sign and/or trade for someone within a year, right?  I guess Hildenberger is a plus?  But overall, the pen is still pretty modest with plenty of uncertainty.

 

I too like the current squad more, but I'm not sure it's enough just to be content with matching 2015 record-wise.  I think playoff results are going to factor into my evaluation of the 2017 season.  Not enough to call it a failure, but enough where it could notably temper any conclusion of "success."  (Not to say I haven't enjoyed the season from an entertainment/interest perspective, of course -- it's baseball!)

[Brock Beauchamp]

You know, I was thinking more about this, and maybe we're being too hard on the 2015 team? Yeah, they were great in May, poor record in June, but they were about .500 the rest of the season, and that's including a poor start in April and punting the last game of the season, some non-health/performance circumstances limiting Ervin's and Sano's contributions, etc.

 

And on a component level, I'm not sure the degree to which today's team is in a better place. How much has really changed since then? Sano has probably taken a step back in performance/health. Buxton looks like he has finally put some things together -- but remember he actually looked OK after he got his feet wet in 2015 too, and he was still arguably the best prospect in the game, so he wasn't starting from zero in an October 2015 forecast. Same for Berrios, Polanco, and Kepler, who have performed roughly in line with consensus expectations overall since. And similar for Rosario stepping up this year -- much appreciated, but he did have a rookie season of some promise in 2015. Those guys all get some credit for actually developing, and that probably pushes 2017 above 2015, but we probably would have forecast some similar development back then too.

 

Trevor May has taken a big step back since then, and Hughes and Milone went from looking like cromulent starters in 2015 to nothing. Gibson's best season overall was 2015. Ervin and Dozier are better this year -- but they were fine in 2015 too, and now they are older, so I am not sure how much their future outlook is better. Mauer is better, but also older. We signed Castro, but it's not like the 2015 team was doomed to start Suzuki for all eternity -- we knew they were going to sign and/or trade for someone within a year, right? I guess Hildenberger is a plus? But overall, the pen is still pretty modest with plenty of uncertainty.

 

I too like the current squad more, but I'm not sure it's enough just to be content with matching 2015 record-wise. I think playoff results are going to factor into my evaluation of the 2017 season. Not enough to call it a failure, but enough where it could notably temper any conclusion of "success." (Not to say I haven't enjoyed the season from an entertainment/interest perspective, of course -- it's baseball!)

Valid points but wasn’t the 2015 squad like +12 in BaseRuns? On a phone so can’t look it up.

[Jham]

Valid points but wasn’t the 2015 squad like +12 in BaseRuns? On a phone so can’t look it up.

Agree, and add that you can't just ignore 2016. The turnaround is impressive.

 

Even if it should have occurred last season. I also think adding vets with actual world series and playoff experience did wonders for this teams confidence and belief. I remember when Gimenez told us all that this is a good team after the Astros sweep put us minus 70+ in ruin differential. I'd also love to hear from the players on whether hunter cuddy and the hawk had any influence this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Valid points but wasn’t the 2015 squad like +12 in BaseRuns? On a phone so can’t look it up.

Yeah, something like that. I was thinking more team composition than record. Still, saying they were a 70 win talent team that year means 2015 was probably another underachievement too, given they were coming off 70. We're finishing up the 6th full season since our 2011 collapse, ~83 wins should be the baseline expectation by now. Glad we're finally meeting it, but after a few years of underachieving toward that goal, I'd kind of like to overachieve for once -- it's hard to get too excited about just meeting modest expectations.

 

Another big one for my is the Yankee/playoff curse. They didn't move foward on that in 2015, and if they don't in 2017 either, that's going to affect my feelings about this team too. Even if they are otherwise meeting expectations.

[akmanak]

Lol. This again?

[Blake]

If the Twins make the playoffs, then, by definition, they are a playoff team.

[Jerr]

 

If the Twins make the playoffs, then, by definition, they are a playoff team.

Correct, title of thread should read Will Twins become a playoff team?    

 

[mikecgrimes]

I think people end up putting to much stock in the regular season when evaluating postseason chances.  It's mostly front end pitching and your top 3 bullpen arms along with the lineup's ability to score runs that matters.  I don't love Santanta and Berrios at this point but they are the sorts of pitchers who could dominate another playoff team on any  given night without really shocking anyone.  The bullpen isnt great but the 2nd half bullpen with the guys who came up through the season is borderline good, and the lineup even without Sano is clearly good.  There are a few teams that can check great on two of those boxes, but of the 10 playoff teams I'd say 7 are not better then us by a meaningful margin, and the other 3 would be upsets but not the kind that shock anyone.  the 87 or 91 teams probably wouldn't have won if they had to  knock out 4 different playoff teams but this team has a fair chance of winning two rounds and if they do they would have another fair chance of winning two more.

[Twodogs]

Is this a playoff team? Well if the A's hold on they will have a 4.5 game lead with like 7 to play, doesn't matter what we think, they are most likely in. At least they have a really great shot at it.

 

Now let's be realistic, once in they can beat anyone once, but they probably aren't going to beat Cleveland or Houston or anyone for that matter in a multiple game series. But you have to give them some cred for getting there with a bunch of 23 -24 - and 25 year olds, how huge is that for their development going into next year??

 

Think about it even if they are one and done, or they win their one wildcard game and then lose out think about what that experience gives them going forward to next year, even go as far as to say they might have an easier time convincing one or two decent FA pitchers to come this way because they would have a legit shot at going even farther next year. Think about that, good pitchers looking at Minnesota as possibly their chance at getting deep into the post season, they have a lot of younger talent that isn't going anywhere for a couple of years. Now add that to the experience guys like Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario, Berrios, Mejia, etc.... Get from going that deep and they will be more mentally prepared next year too.

 

Doesnt matter what we think, they are just about there. I would have never ever guessed it at the beginning of this season that they'd be here but it's here. Good luck Twins going forward!!!!

[spinowner]

 

I take the spirit of the question to be "can the Twins compete in the post-season?"

 

After a bit of thought, I take the spirit of the question to be "Does this team deserve to be a postseason team?" Or, to generalize, does whoever earns the second wild card berth this year deserve to be in the postseason?

In most years, no. As I write this it appears that the second wild card team could easily have the worst record for an AL postseason team since the current format came into use in 2012. Last year the second wild card team won 89 games. In 2015 it was 86, in 2014 it was 88, in 2013 it was 92. In 2012 Detroit won the AL Central with 88 and the second wild card team had 93 wins. Two teams with 89 and 90 wins, respectively, finished out of the postseason.

I think it's a combination of two things. One, having two dominant teams, Houston and Cleveland, each of whom could finish with 100 wins, and, two, having a lot of teams at a similar middling level. This year's second wild card team, whoever it turns out to be, will be the one of this mediocre group finishing with a few more wins than the rest of them.

Back in July it was not unreasonable to look at the Twins, project us to finish with 83 wins, and assume that this would not be good enough to make the postseason. After all, with as many teams as there were in the hunt it would be certain that at least one of them would make a big move forward, right? Well, here we are with ESPN giving us a 95.2% chance of a postseason berth. And we did that with a 36-31 record since the All-Star break. Not exactly a big move forward, but this year it turns out it's better to be lucky than good.