Time to sign Dozier

[jkcarew]

Not understanding the questions regarding Dozier's leadership abilities.  From what I see between the lines regarding consistent effort, focus, and energy...I'd take 9 of him.  Actions are the only thing that have a shelf life for leaders...and the other 'behaviors' that I see from Dozier (I certainly don't see the behind-the-scenes stuff) seem very consistent with what I would expect from a team leader.  For instance, I would absolutely want my 'leader' to desire the lead-off spot in the batting order...and to want the front office to be aggressive.  Not saying I think he's "the" leader that we need to get to the next level.  Just saying that I don't think it should be a factor one way or the other in the sign or trade decision.

To me, if the FO thinks the price will be reasonable (also reasonable term), they have to at least consider signing him...there's just too much production there.  I don't think it's a slam dunk decision either way. Assuming Javier, Palacios, Lewis are at least 2 years away, what they do with Dozier will be directly related to how they REALLY feel about Gordon.  We know they like him...but how much?  Do they see him as the future, or likely just a bridge to the next wave?  Personally, I think Dozier is the better bridge choice, especially if a Dozier trade doesn't net significantly more in established pitching than a Gordon trade.  Definitely don't want next season to start without Dozier either signed or traded, though.

[Jham]

While it is true that he only bats leadoff once per game which accounts for 25 of his 143 career home runs. He has also hit 59 home runs when leading off an inning (don't know if the 25 home runs when leading off a game are also included in the 59 when leading off an inning). Assuming they are, that means that 41% of his home runs come when leading off an inning where it is impossible to have a man on base. Also that 59 accounts for 57% of the total solo home runs that he has hit in his career.

That's my point... He hits a ton of his HR with no one on. 21 hr in 300 ab bases empty. 5 hr in 178 an runners on. I'm not complaining about the solo shots. I would rather see him hit down the line up. He seems insistent about batting first because he perceives an individual advantage for himself. That bothers me a little. It all adds up for me.

[yarnivek1972]

 

That's my point... He hits a ton of his HR with no one on. 21 hr in 300 ab bases empty. 5 hr in 178 an runners on. I'm not complaining about the solo shots. I would rather see him hit down the line up. He seems insistent about batting first because he perceives an individual advantage for himself. That bothers me a little. It all adds up for me.

 

Or maybe he looks at his own stats and says, hmm, better with no one on.  Hit lead off!  Better for the team if he is productive with no one on than if he is not productive with runners on.  Not?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't be against an extension, but I'd definitely shop him for pitching. It's not that every 2B is good, Dozier is a well above average 2B. It's that last year every contending team did not need one (except LA). I'm not sure if that will or will not be an option again this year, but I still think they shop him.

 

As for him not being a leader... really? Let's stay away from subjective stats that are completely unquantifiable and nothing more than a poster's opinion to gage his value. The reality is that there will be a drop off between him and his replacement. The other reality is that by acquiring a pitcher, there will likely be a significant improvement on that side, quite possibly more so than the drop off from trading him.

[JustinCB]

 

He's a poor leader in my opinion. He's the reason why the team lacks leadership. I think his personality may suppress other better leaders as well. He's a nice player, but to me he's part of the problem, part of the old selfish losing culture.

 

 

And this is based on what, exactly?

[Jham]

Or maybe he looks at his own stats and says, hmm, better with no one on. Hit lead off! Better for the team if he is productive with no one on than if he is not productive with runners on. Not?

Certainly possible. Not sure if that's really that much better... I wasn't trying to generate a huge controversy. That's my take on why I wouldn't extend. Business is business. Nothing personal. People went nuts on me last year for suggesting that Sano was the only thing were could trade to get a true ace with control and questioning whether he's going to be elite or just really great at power hitting. Being a GM is hard I imagine. Eventually you have to make decisions. I hope Dozier's apparent flaw is an aberration and that it all evens out this fall.

[dgwills]

Dozier has been good for the Twin's. Unfortunately for him middle infield isn't very high on our list of needs. Three of our top 5 prospects play middle infield. Polanco is better at second than as a shortstop. Plus you have guys like Vielma, Palacios, Blankenhorn, and Escobar to consider.

There's just no reason to sign him to the contract he deserves to get and will no doubt ask for. The smart move is to give him the qualifying offer in 2019 and hope he doesn't take it.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think any of us can know if Dozier is a good leader or not, only people in the locker room do.

That goes both ways, for both those arguing he is an isn't a leader.

[FlauerPauer]

The problem with Dozier is that he isn't really that clutch. I do not trust him in big situations.  As others have said, I think there are others on the team that need extensions before they worry about Dozier.

 

He's a good player and would be tough to replace, but you have to hope other players step up and replace his productivity.

[Platoon]

As for Dozier the player, sometimes it's okay to get on-field value from a player and let him walk. Given how the rest of MLB seems pretty set at second base, this is likely the best route for the Twins. You float that guy in trade to see if there are any takers but if he's worth more to you than to anyone else, you let him play out his contract and try to accumulate wins before he leaves.

I understand the theory. But will he be responsible for enough wins to make up for losing out on some trade piece for the future. I keep thinking about a team with a terrible pitching deficit. Somehow they have to solve that problem, and Dozier is one of the likely parts of that solution. And when I talk pitching I am not talking someone to take us to the second WC, one and done. Pitching that would give a legitimate shot at a run deep into the playoffs.

[Platoon]

BD is a high fastball hitter. Pitchers pitch to both players and situations. Leadoff hitters, whether game or inning tend to get "get em over FB". No one wants to walk the leadoff hitter. So Dozier seems to get an inordinate amount of FB in those spots. When he comes up with men on base he isn't likely to see such a feast. He might see more low curveballs with a guy on first, looking for a DP. With a guy on third and less than two outs most pitchers don't throw sac fly elevated FB if they can help it. They try and stay low for a GB. Which is not Doziers forte. While he has definitely improved going the other way, he is still basically a high FB hitter. I don't think his solo HR rate is a statistical fluke. I think it's a product of his pitch preference and situational pitching. Btw, I do have a question. What does one do with the other middle infield guys coming up. Trade them? Leave them ferment in Rochester? It's part and parcel of the overall Dozier discussion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

BD is a high fastball hitter. Pitchers pitch to both players and situations. Leadoff hitters, whether game or inning tend to get "get em over FB". No one wants to walk the leadoff hitter. So Dozier seems to get an inordinate amount of FB in those spots. When he comes up with men on base he isn't likely to see such a feast. He might see more low curveballs with a guy on first, looking for a DP. With a guy on third and less than two outs most pitchers don't throw sac fly elevated FB if they can help it. They try and stay low for a GB. Which is not Doziers forte. While he has definitely improved going the other way, he is still basically a high FB hitter. I don't think his solo HR rate is a statistical fluke. I think it's a product of his pitch preference and situational pitching. Btw, I do have a question. What does one do with the other middle infield guys coming up. Trade them? Leave them ferment in Rochester? It's part and parcel of the overall Dozier discussion.

I don't know if this is accurate but I appreciate an actual attempt to explain why Dozier may perform in one situation and not the other with consistency.

[DJSim22]

 

Once per game.

 

There is such a thing as leading off an inning...

[DocBauer]

As a BIG Dozier fan overall, he is a bit of a lightening rid, similar to Mauer. There is a real dichotomy in regard to his value.

 

1] Overall, his production can't be denied. Guy plays quality defense, hits decently, has a decent OB, produces 60 XBH every year and has speed. BUT, he's also, arguably, still one of the easiest players to replace with Polanco, Escobar, Adrianza, Gordon, Vielma and Goodrum here and on the way, with other very talented players in the lower minors.

 

2] His reputation as bad in the clutch is probably skewed by hitting #1 so much with poor hitters in front of him previously.

 

3] Trade demand wasn't there last off season. Will that change now? And why? And dies that lack of trade demand skew his future contract offers and FA possibilities?

 

4] He's good, not old, and a sudden drop off in production is pure speculation. Couldn't he continue to be very productive as a 2B, 1B, DH over the next few seasons? Couldn't he still be very valuable with a said extension, even with the young INF talent on the way?

 

I don't have the answer. But it seems he's not a big trade mover, unless combined. If an extension isn't too long, or too big, if say his value is to be kept.

[kab21]

 

Dozier has been good for the Twin's. Unfortunately for him middle infield isn't very high on our list of needs. Three of our top 5 prospects play middle infield. Polanco is better at second than as a shortstop. Plus you have guys like Vielma, Palacios, Blankenhorn, and Escobar to consider.

There's just no reason to sign him to the contract he deserves to get and will no doubt ask for. The smart move is to give him the qualifying offer in 2019 and hope he doesn't take it.

I am leery of giving him an extension at his likely market value (approaching 20M/yr) but I would be thrilled if he accepted a QO. My concern is that Dozier declines (possibly a lot) by the end of the contract but there is almost no such thing as a bad one year contract

[Doomtints]

Who doesn't like Dozier? The question is are there big needs on this team that a Dozier trade could help fill? Yes. Will the Twins tank without him? No.

[drjim]

 

Who doesn't like Dozier? The question is are there big needs on this team that a Dozier trade could help fill? Yes. Will the Twins tank without him? No.

 

I can think of at least one poster...

 

But your point is kind of the crux of the conversation. Both sides might actually be correct!

[Brock Beauchamp]

I simply don't see the upside in extending Dozier. He'll be a marginal second basemen in the next couple of years. He doesn't really profile well at first base, as he's not very tall. He has to keep hitting like this to be a decent DH.

 

Basically, any regression and his value drops like a stone. He doesn't have much room to fall downward. I like the guy but not at the 4/$60m it will probably take to extend him.

[Doubles]

There are times I see Dozier not hustling out ground balls. That drives me nutso, but he's far from the only one who doesn't always run them out hard.

 

Many times it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to know who the team leaders are if you're not on the inside. The guys you may think are the leaders from watching on TV aren't necessarily always so.

 

By the same token, there are guys on every team that are leaders that would have most fans soiling themselves if it became common knowledge.

[SweetOne69]

 

That's my point... He hits a ton of his HR with no one on. 21 hr in 300 ab bases empty. 5 hr in 178 an runners on. I'm not complaining about the solo shots. I would rather see him hit down the line up. He seems insistent about batting first because he perceives an individual advantage for himself. That bothers me a little. It all adds up for me.

 

Another reason for this is that pitchers probably pitch him differently with guys on base as opposed to when empty.

[kellyvance]

From Twins website, an article about Santana taking the mound tonight but mentioning BD:

 

"Twins second baseman Brian Dozier has been one of baseball's best second-half hitters, as he entered Tuesday with the fourth-most homers in the Majors after the All-Star break with 13. His 41 second-half homers over the last two seasons are the most in baseball by far."

 

OK, so he is not clutch? But he leads all of baseball with second half homers.... so try another unproven theory 

 

Last year there was such a call by negative nellies to trade Dozier for a handful of magic beans called prospects.  Glad the Twins hung tough. I think they should extend him for two years, and I think he wants to stay in Minnesota. Those saying he wants the big cash don't know the guy. He is already a millionaire and he likes it here. Anyway, sure the Twins have other middle infielder prospects, but name one that can or will average 25 homers a year at second base.... crickets....

 

As for him not being a leader, that is hogwash.... watch the games.  He is liked by his team mates and that is obvious when you see the camera show the bench....

As for him insisting on batting leadoff, since when does a player fill out the battig order?

 

Too much grasping at straws and unfair criticism.  

[kab21]

 

I simply don't see the upside in extending Dozier. He'll be a marginal second basemen in the next couple of years. He doesn't really profile well at first base, as he's not very tall. He has to keep hitting like this to be a decent DH.

 

Basically, any regression and his value drops like a stone. He doesn't have much room to fall downward. I like the guy but not at the 4/$60m it will probably take to extend him.

I agree with this although there is upside. His WAR has been between 3.3 and 5.9. Obviously he won't be worth 5.9 again but a 3-4 WAR player is worth 21-28M/yr (1 WAR = 7M ballparkish value). 

This has been why I think his next contract is going to be closer to 20M/yr though and this is why I keep saying that you only sign if you think he can stick at 2B. His WAR at 1B (or DH) probably drops by at least 1 (from 3-4).

 

Yes, WAR has been used. I expect the forum to implode shortly.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree with this although there is upside. His WAR has been between 3.3 and 5.9. Obviously he won't be worth 5.9 again but a 3-4 WAR player is worth 21-28M/yr (1 WAR = 7M ballparkish value). 

This has been why I think his next contract is going to be closer to 20M/yr though and this is why I keep saying that you only sign if you think he can stick at 2B. His WAR at 1B (or DH) probably drops by at least 1 (from 3-4).

 

Yes, WAR has been used. I expect the forum to implode shortly.

I suppose it depends on whether all contending MLB teams still have a competent 2B. That could drive Dozier's asking price down into the territory where it makes sense for the Twins.

 

Though I still lean away from the extension if things remain as they are. A lot depends on Polanco and Gordon.

[howeda7]

If they can do something in the 3/$36 range I would do it. If it's more than that, pass. It seems like Lewis is coming on fast and destined to pass Gordon by 2019. It might make sense to trade Gordon for pitching in the offseason and roll with Polanco/Dozier until Lewis is ready. By then, perhaps someone can move to 3rd and Sano to 1st.

[kab21]

 

I suppose it depends on whether all contending MLB teams still have a competent 2B. That could drive Dozier's asking price down into the territory where it makes sense for the Twins.

 

Though I still lean away from the extension if things remain as they are. A lot depends on Polanco and Gordon.

But there is a difference between having to trade top 50 prospects and signing a FA. The market in FA is likely to be much more active than the trade market.

I am not excited about a Dozier extension but it wouldn't be a horrible thing. The Twins have a lot of payroll flexibility coming up with big contracts ending and a lot of pre-arb and arb players filling out the lineup. It will be interesting to watch the new FO work. So far they have shown a willingness to operate outside of the box.

[Ryan Atkins]

 

After hearing his name mentioned forever in trade rumors, I think it's time to admit that Brian Dozier deserves a new contract with the Twins, and he's earned it. ..
Does anyone agree with me?

 

Yes. Its a no-brainer. He's been very good for a while now, there is no aberration. Everyone has career highs and they don't always occur in the last and only year that they are any good.

 

If you are trying to win a World Series in the next couple years, this is a player you want. If you honestly don't see yourself as being competitive (WS-competitive, not Wildcard-competitive) for the next couple years and would admit that, then maybe look at trade options, but I would ask for a lot in return--certainly more than Jose De Leon.

[dbminn]

Sign Dozier to an extension. Why?

• He's been a top-5 2B from 2014-2017 (third by Fangraphs)
• He's been relatively injury free, averaging more than 150 G/yr the past four years.
• Recent comparable 2B have aged reasonably well (see Kinsler, Cano and Pedroia in link above)
• The Twins have three more years to compete with their current core players (Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, Kepler). The young players have shown they are ready to compete now.
• Market demand for 2B is low right now. While that makes it difficult to trade Dozier, it also makes him cheaper to sign.
• The Twins don't have anyone as good to replace him. Gordon might be an average pro in 2018, his likely rookie season.

The closest comp is Kinsler. He signed for 5 yr/$85M before the 2013 season, the year he would turn 31. Dozier will turn 31 next year and is signed for $9M. At least try to offer him 4 yr/$65M while market demand is low. Tear up next year's $9M deal and front-load the salary.

 

Let's see the Twins try to win in 2018!

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I was going to say, which would you rather have: a player that get's hot when the season is on the line or a player that starts off hot and cools off when the team needs him?

 

It appears that, for some reason, Mr. Dozier is a second half player. So, surround him with the steady players who will get the job done early and let him be the difference maker after All Star. 

 

Last I heard, wins and losses in teh first half count as much as wins and losses after the break. I don't understand your point at all.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think any of us can know if Dozier is a good leader or not, only people in the locker room do.
That goes both ways, for both those arguing he is an isn't a leader.

 

Amen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think they should extend him for two years, and I think he wants to stay in Minnesota. Those saying he wants the big cash don't know the guy. He is already a millionaire and he likes it here.

Dozier and his agent were pretty adament when he signed his current contract that they were not interested in signing away any free agent years. Maybe they would change their tune now as they see the 2B market, but maybe not. As you say, he already has his millions, so he is not risking much by waiting a year to test the open market.