If Dozier is dealt...then what?

[DocBauer]

I've been kicking this around for a few days. We have no idea, as I write this, whether Dozier will or won't be moved at this time. We also don't know if he may yet be moved in the off season. What we DO KNOW is that BD is still a quality baseball player, not that old, is performing well but down from last season's career numbers, and is not signed beyond next season. And while we really don't know his market value, the FO is at least, apparently, listening to various offers and looking to possibly add more young talent.

 

With no disrespect to Dozier in the slightest, I, and others, have stated for some time that he is easily the most "replaceable " lineup regular. This is made true by the presence of various other infielders available, both on the club, and possibly nearing the ML level.

 

A quick review:

 

Polanco: Let me be clear right up front that I am a fan and believer, and I have followed his milb career with a great deal of interest. He is only 24 with still limited ML time, overall. He was originally signed as a defense first player who developed offensively, in fact, in most of of his milb season's, he began the year as a 1-2 spot hitter before moving to the 3 hole as one of his team's best overall hitters. He hit in 2016 at the ML level but defense was the question mark. For the first couple of months this season, bith the offense and defense were good to surprisingly good. No question he has hit a major speed bump if not a wall. Is thus due to youth, sophomore slump, his grandfather's death or a combination? We just don't know. But there is an awful lot of talent and potential there, whether at 2B or SS.

 

Escobar: I love this guy, personally, find him to be of immense value, and hope he sticks around, I find his defense good to excellent, overall, though opinions vary. If you ignore his 2016 stats, and many Twins players would probably like you to ignore the 2016 season all together, he has been quite productive as a utility/quasi-regular with a .268BA/ .315OB/ .428SLG/ .743OPS. He is a nice bench/role player who can fill in for stretches.

 

Adrianza: He came to the Twins this season as a glove first player with some speed who couldn't hit, though in fairness, his ML time was somewhat sporadic. Whether a flash in the pan, or a still somewhat player in the right time and place, he hit in the spring. He hit during his injury rehab, and he has hit with the Twins while playing quality defense and stealing a few bases as well. To be fair, if you examine his milb production, he didn't perform badly as a hitter.

 

Vielma: It always starts with the leather for Vielma. And we've all read various glowing reports about his defensive ability, proficiency and potential. Someone posted, within the last month or so though I can't find it, a report from a scout/expert, comparing Vielma to a young Omar Vizquel. To paraphrase, magician with the glove who would struggle to break the Mendoza line, at least early in his career. Again, to be fair, despite an anemic bat for Rochester this season he hit well at AA to begin the season, and in 2016. At least for his position. And he has hit decently before that, again, for his position. He has flashed some speed, some contact and OB ability previously. Again, at least for his position. With Buxton's ability and continued development/improvement, could the Twins live with Vielma in the 9 spot and his defense?

 

Gordon: We all know so much about his prospect status, ranking and potential that I'm not going to delve in to it. But suffice it to say his bat looks real and appears projectable. One thing I have learned in all my years of watching baseball, and following milb baseball, is not to get too caught up in errors for young infielders, especially young SS. Even cursory research in to error numbers for "great" defensive infielders will show various guys of errors as they developed and gained experience. I think losing Dozier AND Gordon, however, could be painful in any combination of moves.

 

Goodrum: This 25yo is a dark horse. He was drafted, what seems like forever ago, as a tools SS with tons of potential. Injury and inconsistency slowed his early development before seeming to find himself in 2016 with a quality half season in Chattanooga. (Not that he was horrible previously, just not very good). In an aggressive and surprising move, the Twins saw enough in his half season of AA to promote him to AAA this year, where he has remained. His numbers of .253AVG/ .302OB/ .412SLG/ .714OPS may not seem overly impressive, he is athletic, only 25 and in his first year of AAA ball, and despite being a "natural SS" when drafted and through the bulk of his career, I believe, he can, reportedly, fill in, at least decently, at 7 positions. Ultimately, he is probably "only" a versatile multi-utility player. But when examing the best roster at the ML level, i believe a useful utility player shouldnt be ignored in this possible configuration.

 

And maybe the Twins will surprise us with an extension for Dozier, whether to remain at 2B, or move to 1B, DH, or become a sort of "new age" veteran utility player who could see action at all 3 spots, conjecture would seem to have him traded or moving after 2018. With a TON of infield talent in the low levels of the Twins system still a good 2-3 years away, these would be the options for the next few season's, as of now, at the ML level. How would you handle this and see it play out?

[butterspud]

 

I've been kicking this around for a few days. We have no idea, as I write this, whether Dozier will or won't be moved at this time. We also don't know if he may yet be moved in the off season. What we DO KNOW is that BD is still a quality baseball player, not that old, is performing well but down from last season's career numbers, and is not signed beyond next season. And while we really don't know his market value, the FO is at least, apparently, listening to various offers and looking to possibly add more young talent.

With no disrespect to Dozier in the slightest, I, and others, have stated for some time that he is easily the most "replaceable " lineup regular. This is made true by the presence of various other infielders available, both on the club, and possibly nearing the ML level.

A quick review:

Polanco: Let me be clear right up front that I am a fan and believer, and I have followed his milb career with a great deal of interest. He is only 24 with still limited ML time, overall. He was originally signed as a defense first player who developed offensively, in fact, in most of of his milb season's, he began the year as a 1-2 spot hitter before moving to the 3 hole as one of his team's best overall hitters. He hit in 2016 at the ML level but defense was the question mark. For the first couple of months this season, bith the offense and defense were good to surprisingly good. No question he has hit a major speed bump if not a wall. Is thus due to youth, sophomore slump, his grandfather's death or a combination? We just don't know. But there is an awful lot of talent and potential there, whether at 2B or SS.

Escobar: I love this guy, personally, find him to be of immense value, and hope he sticks around, I find his defense good to excellent, overall, though opinions vary. If you ignore his 2016 stats, and many Twins players would probably like you to ignore the 2016 season all together, he has been quite productive as a utility/quasi-regular with a .268BA/ .315OB/ .428SLG/ .743OPS. He is a nice bench/role player who can fill in for stretches.

Adrianza: He came to the Twins this season as a glove first player with some speed who couldn't hit, though in fairness, his ML time was somewhat sporadic. Whether a flash in the pan, or a still somewhat player in the right time and place, he hit in the spring. He hit during his injury rehab, and he has hit with the Twins while playing quality defense and stealing a few bases as well. To be fair, if you examine his milb production, he didn't perform badly as a hitter.

Vielma: It always starts with the leather for Vielma. And we've all read various glowing reports about his defensive ability, proficiency and potential. Someone posted, within the last month or so though I can't find it, a report from a scout/expert, comparing Vielma to a young Omar Vizquel. To paraphrase, magician with the glove who would struggle to break the Mendoza line, at least early in his career. Again, to be fair, despite an anemic bat for Rochester this season he hit well at AA to begin the season, and in 2016. At least for his position. And he has hit decently before that, again, for his position. He has flashed some speed, some contact and OB ability previously. Again, at least for his position. With Buxton's ability and continued development/improvement, could the Twins live with Vielma in the 9 spot and his defense?

Gordon: We all know so much about his prospect status, ranking and potential that I'm not going to delve in to it. But suffice it to say his bat looks real and appears projectable. One thing I have learned in all my years of watching baseball, and following milb baseball, is not to get too caught up in errors for young infielders, especially young SS. Even cursory research in to error numbers for "great" defensive infielders will show various guys of errors as they developed and gained experience. I think losing Dozier AND Gordon, however, could be painful in any combination of moves.

Goodrum: This 25yo is a dark horse. He was drafted, what seems like forever ago, as a tools SS with tons of potential. Injury and inconsistency slowed his early development before seeming to find himself in 2016 with a quality half season in Chattanooga. (Not that he was horrible previously, just not very good). In an aggressive and surprising move, the Twins saw enough in his half season of AA to promote him to AAA this year, where he has remained. His numbers of .253AVG/ .302OB/ .412SLG/ .714OPS may not seem overly impressive, he is athletic, only 25 and in his first year of AAA ball, and despite being a "natural SS" when drafted and through the bulk of his career, I believe, he can, reportedly, fill in, at least decently, at 7 positions. Ultimately, he is probably "only" a versatile multi-utility player. But when examing the best roster at the ML level, i believe a useful utility player shouldnt be ignored in this possible configuration.

And maybe the Twins will surprise us with an extension for Dozier, whether to remain at 2B, or move to 1B, DH, or become a sort of "new age" veteran utility player who could see action at all 3 spots, conjecture would seem to have him traded or moving after 2018. With a TON of infield talent in the low levels of the Twins system still a good 2-3 years away, these would be the options for the next few season's, as of now, at the ML level. How would you handle this and see it play out?

Dozier needs to be moved for young controllable and predictable pitching so the infield can consist of Gordon at SS and Polanco at 2B. I'd argue for trading Escobar now so we can bring up Vielma to get his feet wet as Eduardo's utility replacement. Eventually Polanco hopefully performs so we can trade him and move up Royce Lewis to play short and have Gordon play a more comfortable spot like 2B. All the other guys are basically Adrianza's or Escobar's. Potential but nothing amazing

[Otwins]

Every time I read trade Dozier and play Polanco at 2B - I cringe.  I really think we should wait until you can see if Polanco can hit consistently and with some power. I would not trade Dozier.  The offers seem underwhelming for a very good player who wont be a payroll buster when he hits free agency.  If there is tepid trade interest I doubt that there will be a major bidding war when he hits free agency.

[ahart10]

Keep Escobar in his role. Adrianza takes over at short. Polanco to 2nd. Garver takes 25 man spot. I have always liked Goodrum and his versatility but would like to see more with the stick in Sep.

[Old Twins Cap]

Dozier just doesn't do it for me anymore.

 

He leads the league in solo homers.

 

He barely makes it to first base when running out a ground ball, and starts to turn or slams on the brakes making the automatic U-turn for the dugout.  What's that about?

 

His limp-wrist throws to first base, even Chuck Knoblauch had a better arm.

 

His lack of range increasing by the week.

 

When's the last time he stole a base?  Or hit a clutch double?

 

Dump him already. 

 

Twins fans gotta realize the reason they did not trade Dozier and probably won't again at the Deadline, is that other teams do not want him.

 

Why do we?

[ahart10]

Every time I read trade Dozier and play Polanco at 2B - I cringe. I really think we should wait until you can see if Polanco can hit consistently and with some power. I would not trade Dozier. The offers seem underwhelming for a very good player who wont be a payroll buster when he hits free agency. If there is tepid trade interest I doubt that there will be a major bidding war when he hits free agency.

I wouldn't say Dozier's bat is consistent. DeLeon would like really nice towards the top of Twins farm system right now.

[kab21]

I think the more difficult question is 'If a MI isn't dealt then what'?

 

Right now the Twins have a great problem to have. They have too many good MI's although Polanco hasn't necessarily played well this year. Escobar and Adrianza are almost elite at the backup level and I don't think many would have a problem with either starting especially if MI became more of a rotation between the 3 players (and eventually Gordon).

 

I think if Dozier is dealt (unfortunately the 2B trade market is poor) then you sign Escobar to an extension (like 3/25 starting in 2018) to stabilize the MI for a few years. He can either be a great backup or he (or Adrianza) can start if Polanco/Gordon struggles.

Dozier just doesn't do it for me anymore.

 

He leads the league in solo homers.

lol - What do you expect when a power hitter is hitting leadoff?

The thing with Dozier is that he has always been notoriously streaky. He hasn't had his hot streak yet.

[Squirrel]

I don't know if Dozier will be traded or not, which is different from if I think he should. But if he's traded tomorrow, for the remainder of this season, I would move Polanco to 2nd, Adrianza SS, and Esco as utility. Don't know who I'd call up to fill the 25-man roster spot but probably not a middle infielder. September call ups might see one or two of those you've mentioned. If Dozier is traded in the off-season, i don't know. It would depend on who else is around. Not sure Gordon is ready to start next season, at least not at the beginning of the season. If we keep Dozier into next season, I'm not sure what becomes of Polanco but I'm not convinced he goes into next season as our starting SS.

[drjim]

The move will happen in the offseason. Don't think they break camp with Polanco and Dozier next year.

[Han Joelo]

I looked at his season stats today. They are freakishly close to his career averages. Not sure a "hot" streak is in the cards.

[Danchat]

If Dozier gets traded, there's a whole load of options to fill in 2B. You can treat the position like DH for the rest of 2017, putting Polanco, Adrianza, and Escobar in sporadically. Then you can have less of Escobar at DH and more of Garver/Vargas at DH. They should figure out what they have with the current hitters (is Polanco broken? Will Adrianza keep hitting?) and then determine what the right course of action will be for the 2018 season.

 

But honestly I don't think Dozier is going anywhere.

 

 

 

Now Rosario can play at 2B, just like he did [for a little bit] in the minors!

[AZTwin]

I've always been against dozier but at this point I think he's a net positive and brings more value to the team in his limited time left than he would in a trade

[howeda7]

Everyone is over-estimating Dozier's trade value. He is what he is. A slightly above average defensive 2B with some pop. He won't land more than we just got for Garcia. I'd find him less grating if he was hitting 7th or 8th like he should. Having a lead-off hitter who strikes out 15 times in a 3 game series is frustrating. 

 

I'd be OK with a modest extension. He should not be traded unless we are in the same position a year from now, or a combination of Polanco and Gordon raking push him out the door. 

[Brandon Warne]

He should be hitting cleanup. Put Grossman at leadoff.

 

1. Grossman DH

2. Mauer 1B

3. Sano 3B

4. Dozier 2B

5. Kepler RF

6. Rosario LF

7. Polanco SS

8. Castro C

9. Granite CF

[kab21]

 

Everyone is over-estimating Dozier's trade value. He is what he is. A slightly above average defensive 2B with some pop. He won't land more than we just got for Garcia. I'd find him less grating if he was hitting 7th or 8th like he should. Having a lead-off hitter who strikes out 15 times in a 3 game series is frustrating. 

This is a bit extreme. Dozier's trade value problem is that nobody needs a 2B so they won't pay what would be a fair price. Average (or better) 2B (with track record and HR's) with no injury concerns on a friendly contract are worth more than Littell/Enns.

[cmoss84]

I like Escobar playing everyday. If it means 2B so be it. I think I'm alone on this but he's more than a backup util type.

[Squirrel]

 

I like Escobar playing everyday. If it means 2B so be it. I think I'm alone on this but he's more than a backup util type.

I think he is, too ... but not convinced he's a starter, either ... in other words, somewhere in between. If Dozier is dealt before the end of the season, as I said above, I'd move Polanco to 2nd, Adrianza to SS and Esco the utility ... but I'd still see him get quite a bit of time between 2nd, 3rd, and SS, perhaps more than a typical utility. 

[akmanak]

We hope we get a decent pitcher from the prospects that we get for him.

 

This team is 3 starters and 4 bullpen arms from being a contender in the central division and after we lose Santana (which we will according to my source which is logic) we will need 4 starters.

[Platoon]

This is a bit extreme. Dozier's trade value problem is that nobody needs a 2B so they won't pay what would be a fair price. Average (or better) 2B (with track record and HR's) with no injury concerns on a friendly contract are worth more than Littell/Enns.

I like this with a caveat. The "fair price" for BD is impacted by the fact that 2B of his ilk are currently a dime a dozen. If his value is impacted to other teams by that fact, we need to allow for that in our own trade evaluation. EE is a nice utility guy, his most value is in short spurts. I would keep him over Adrainza (sp) because he hits better, is a switch hitter, along with a decent glove. I do think Polanco will be just fine, but I don't think he is a staring SS. So regrettably if you keep BD, I would trade Polanco. It's not the way I would do it, but I would not keep Polanco to play SS.

[kab21]

 

I like this with a caveat. The "fair price" for BD is impacted by the fact that 2B of his ilk are currently a dime a dozen. If his value is impacted to other teams by that fact, we need to allow for that in our own trade evaluation. EE is a nice utility guy, his most value is in short spurts. I would keep him over Adrainza (sp) because he hits better, is a switch hitter, along with a decent glove. I do think Polanco will be just fine, but I don't think he is a staring SS. So regrettably if you keep BD, I would trade Polanco. It's not the way I would do it, but I would not keep Polanco to play SS.

It is just one of those things where 2B is a deep position and the typical teams that would trade for a veteran have decent or better 2B. If you go back 2-3 years then there would be a larger market or in a couple of years there would be a larger market. This is just the reality that anyone that suggests 'we need to trade Dozier' has to accept. If you trade him now then you most likely won't get a decent value for him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

We hope we get a decent pitcher from the prospects that we get for him.

This team is 3 starters and 4 bullpen arms from being a contender in the central division and after we lose Santana (which we will according to my source which is logic) we will need 4 starters.

 

I think you're selling Mejia a bit short here. He's had his ups and downs, no doubt, but he should be penciled in this spring..

 

Now that said, if Santana is traded, I do think they need go out and get two arms. I could see one on a 1 year deal with another longer term asset locked up, but I think they need two arms if they let Santana go.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I don't know if Dozier will be traded or not, which is different from if I think he should. But if he's traded tomorrow, for the remainder of this season, I would move Polanco to 2nd, Adrianza SS, and Esco as utility. Don't know who I'd call up to fill the 25-man roster spot but probably not a middle infielder. September call ups might see one or two of those you've mentioned. If Dozier is traded in the off-season, i don't know. It would depend on who else is around. Not sure Gordon is ready to start next season, at least not at the beginning of the season. If we keep Dozier into next season, I'm not sure what becomes of Polanco but I'm not convinced he goes into next season as our starting SS.

Everytime I see Polanco at SS, I see the same thing:  bad footwork.  Not doubt that his defensive problems are following over to his offense.  

 

As others have said, the trade market for 2nd basement isn't all that hot.  Dig deeper into other team MiLB and get more volume...

[HitInAPinch]

 

I think he is, too ... but not convinced he's a starter, either ... in other words, somewhere in between. If Dozier is dealt before the end of the season, as I said above, I'd move Polanco to 2nd, Adrianza to SS and Esco the utility ... but I'd still see him get quite a bit of time between 2nd, 3rd, and SS, perhaps more than a typical utility. 

Add in Sano's defense at 3rd, I believe there's plenty of playing time for Esco. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I just don't think the Twins are going to find anyone who is too interested in Dozier.

[Squirrel]

I just don't think the Twins are going to find anyone who is too interested in Dozier.

Diamondbacks, maybe. But it's not going to be at the price we'd want. But this thread isn't about that. It's about what's next if he's traded not about will he or won't he and for what.

[Squirrel]

I think you're selling Mejia a bit short here. He's had his ups and downs, no doubt, but he should be penciled in this spring..

 

Now that said, if Santana is traded, I do think they need go out and get two arms. I could see one on a 1 year deal with another longer term asset locked up, but I think they need two arms if they let Santana go.

A reminder to everyone ... this thread isn't about trading Dozier, if we should or shouldn't, and for what ... it's about what you would do next if he does get traded.

[bighat]

 

I like Escobar playing everyday. If it means 2B so be it. I think I'm alone on this but he's more than a backup util type.

 

I like Escobar too. Don't forget, we got Escobar from the White Sox in the Liriano trade. He was always a legit MLB prospect and has performed well when he gets playing time.

 

He seems to be consistently mis-used. Escobar gets extremely hot and then the Twins start leaning on him too much. He shouldn't be batting 4th, no matter how hot he gets. Keep him in the #2 hole or bat him further down in the lineup at 6th or 7th. His defensive range isn't that great, so I think 2b is a good place for him.

[Winston Smith]

Esco could play 2B full time. If he had as many PA's as Dozier his hitting would be very close. Odd thing and a surprise Esco has a HR every 27 PA's, Dozier has a HR every 26 PA's. I don't think there would be much drop off at all. I doubt the second half of last year Dozier will ever be seen again.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A reminder to everyone ... this thread isn't about trading Dozier, if we should or shouldn't, and for what ... it's about what you would do next if he does get traded.

How would you classify the following?

 

"Twins' Brian Dozier shown on TV urinating in the dugout bathroom with the door open"

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/brian-dozier-shown-tv-urinating-dugout-door-open-article-1.3370548

[Mike Sixel]

I'd move Polanco to 2B and see what happens, put Adrianza in at SS full time, and promote Gordon in September. To fill the spot, I'd call up Garver*

 

*pretty much what I'd do with with any non-SP spot right now.