Rumor: Yankees and Twins had conversations about Santana

[Dman]

 

One isn't considered a top of the rotation guy and the other is a 5 inning pitcher in AA. I wouldn't say they are all that close, but that is just me.

I guess it depends on your definition of close.  Mine is pretty loose but would be someone who would likely start for the MLB team next year or year after.  To me that is close.  Meija was a pitcher that the Twins acquired last year that was close to ready for MLB.  They actually gave him a chance to start the same year they acquired him and right now today he is in the rotation.  He was pegged as number 4 or 5 starter and is making a difference for the team this year.

 

A lot of people on this site think Romero could be a bullpen arm for the Twins right now and next year has the possibility to start but who knows how he will handle that transition if he gets the opportunity, but in my mind that makes him close.  Gonsalves might have more trouble getting his stuff to translate but if they give him AAA experience this year he should be ready to try MLB mid next year.  So yeah by my definition I would say they are close.

 

If they need to be number 1's and ready to start this year then you are probably right they are not close.

[Winston Smith]

 

In the off-season I looked up a bunch of pitchers that were similar in age and performance as Santana. I don't have the list with me (I could probably find it in comments I made), but I do remember clearly that almost all of that declined rapidly, with most being either ineffective or out of baseball within two years.

Santana has put up great numbers - elite, in fact - from last June to this June. He is going to decline soon. The Twins FO should absolutely be selling him and trying to get controllable starting pitching in return. If it is near MLB ready, great. But if it is 2-3 years away with high upside,...

 

 

Geez don't tell everyone!

[ALessKosherScott]

 

I skew toward favoring a single high-end prospect over multiple lesser prospects. YMMV.

 

I think it comes down to what you're getting. If it's a hitting prospect, one high end prospect is safer. If it's a pitching prospect, I prefer multiple ones. There's no such thing as a sure ace in the minor leagues. So you want as many lotto tickets as you can grab.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Geez don't tell everyone!

Geez, I hope opposing FOs are coming to TD for their trade strategy and wisdom.

 

I found it (and just posted it on Seth's article about trade chips). Here it is again:

 

 

Peavy pitched a 101 ERA+ at 33, then pitched two more years, 108 and 74 at age 34 and 35.

 

Guthrie posted a 132 at age 33, then went 102-95-72, done at 36.

 

Lohse posted 133 at age 33, then went 115-107-68, done at 36.

 

Millwood posted 88 at 33, then 127-81-115-90, done at 37.

 

Loiaza posted 108 at 33, then averaged 83 and was done at 36.

 

Doug Davis (106ERA+ age 29-33) posted a 108 ERA+ at age 33, then bombed to 57 over the next two years, done at 35.

 

Steve Traschel posted a 107, then posted 88 and 94 in his age 35 and 36 season, playing sporadically at age 34 and 37, done at 37.

 

Miguel Batista posted a couple of 103/102 seasons as a starter after 33, and became a solid closer for some of those years, lasting until 40.

 

Javier Vasquez posted 81 and 106 in his age 33 and 34 seasons and then retired.

 

Brad Radke, who posted a 110 ERA+ from age 29-33 posted a 104 at age 33, and then was done.

 

Finally, Ervin Santana pitched a 124 ERA at age 33, with a 101 ERA+ from age 29-33 (including years of 74 and 90 in that stretch.)

[Siehbiscuit]

Since I'm sure everyone is dying to know my opinion, I am in the camp that Santana needs to be moved for either an package focused around an elite prospect (top 30ish) or a package with multiple high upside prospects.

 

If the Yanks aren't moving for Adams, Torres or Frazier, then let's get some of their high upside talent they have acquired via the international market.

 

Here are four guys I'd like to pursue:

 

1). MLB #90' Yanks #5 - 19 yo OF, Estevan Florial - this guy is young and is all tools. Currently hitting .301/.379/.494 at Low-A

2) Yanks #8 - Jorge Mateo - SS/CF - also a high upside 5 tool athlete. Was Yanks #1 prospect in 2016, was suspended (non-drug or PED), this guy was a top 70 prospect last year and is making his way back up again. Currently hitting .306/.387/.546 at AA

3) Yanks #10 - Domingo Acevedo - RHSP - a borderline top 100 guy as well. Has hit 103 on the gun and has only been a starter in his career. Worst case, he comes an excellent bullpen piece. He is averaging 6 innings per start, between AA and AAA, and has a 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9, with an ERA of 3.27.

4) Yanks #9 - Miguel Andujar - 3B, I like the idea of getting an extremely talented 3B, because when Mauer's deal is up, Sano is moving to 1B (let's be honest here). Andujar can rake and is hitting .316/.349/.508 between AA and AAA, but has been hitting .324/.365/.543 (.908 OPS) since he moved up to AAA.

 

In this deal you get a very close to MLB-ready starter and three extremely high upside athletes. Asking for the Yanks #5, 8,9,10 prospect would like like be equivalent to asking for Gonsalves or Romero and then Wander Javier, a healthy Kirilloff and lewin Diaz. The biggest difference and not to understate it, is all of the Yankees prospects are a year closer than the Twins prospects I named.

 

The Yankees have excellent depth, let's get quantity, since the Twins can't afford to let prospects bust the way larger patrolled teams can

[Respy]

Sorry I'm jumping into this late, but I'd presume the Yankees regard Sonny Gray higher than Santana, especially given that Gray is 27, so they probably figure that they would never give any top prospects for Santana, because they could instead give their top prospects for Gray.  If Santana was the only good SP on the market, then we'd be in a better spot.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sorry I'm jumping into this late, but I'd presume the Yankees regard Sonny Gray higher than Santana, especially given that Gray is 27, so they probably figure that they would never give any top prospects for Santana, because they could instead give their top prospects for Gray.  If Santana was the only good SP on the market, then we'd be in a better spot.

 

I'm guessing one of two things (or both) are happening:

 

the Yankees won't give up their best prospects for Gray, and are working the Twins as leverage

the Yankees won't give up their best prospects for Gray, and are interested in Santana at a better price

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's higher now. He cleared waivers last year, he wouldn't clear this year.

I don't think revocable trade waivers is necessarily a good barometer for value. If teams knew the Twins asking price was high, they were better off not claiming him last year and hoping circumstances changed. (Come to think of it, I wouldn't be so confident that Ervin will get claimed this year. I would bet so, but it could depend on what the Twins are asking/signaling and how the market/standings shake out in the meantime.)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

At the same time, you think the twins pitching numbers are bad now; imagine how bad they would be if you get a massive downgrade in defense from the center field position, going from Buxton to whoever you put in center instead.

thats what FIP and xFIP try to tell you. The fielding helps, but only one or two ranking positions in terms of runs given up.

[cmoss84]

I'm guessing one of two things (or both) are happening:

 

the Yankees won't give up their best prospects for Gray, and are working the Twins as leverage

the Yankees won't give up their best prospects for Gray, and are interested in Santana at a better price

Just seems like the Dodgers will end up getting Gray. Very solid farm and history trading with the A's.

Dodgers, Yanks, Astros, Nats, Royals, Red Sox (not to mention a few other sleepers) need pitching. Who spends the most and who gets who will be interesting!

[DaveW]

I'd personally target the Astros, and I think we would get the most from them from an asset like Santana.

 

Problem with the Yankees is that even though Santana is affordable, they don't really mind or care. Houston? That is more important to them.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Pondering these names is why selling sounds much better in theory than it will end up in reality.

The returns are not going to be that much.

 

It comes down to scouting.  Even though the Twins wasted 95% of what David Ortiz had to offer getting him for Dave Hollins was still a great trade.  There are current #6 to 10 prospects that will be up by next September who are future All-stars maybe even borderline hall of famers.  The reality is The savings by moving Santana plus the prospect(s) we can get even if it is a disappointment return has a very good chance of being better then what Santana has left.  Also remember he's already served one 80 game suspension, I have to think that hurts his value big time.  Move him for whatever you can.

[kab21]

This thread (and rumors if you believe them) should tell us that many are greatly overestimating the return for Ervin Santana. That has been my sticking point all along with an Ervin trade. We likely aren't getting a top 50-ish prospect for him. The Twins shouldn't be trading him for a top 100-ish prospect. Just keep him.

 

Why is there talk of trading Buxton for Sonny Gray when most on the board are shooting down Gordon+ for Gray? That makes no sense. If anyone promoting a Buxton/Gray trade now were against a Gordon+/Gray trade then you have some explaining to do.

Why is Royce Lewis untouchable? I think that is the better move (patience) than trading Gordon now for a good starting pitcher. The Twins window is opening now. Bring up Gordon next year and trade the player that is probably 4+ years away for a very good SP.

[old nurse]

 

This thread (and rumors if you believe them) should tell us that many are greatly overestimating the return for Ervin Santana. That has been my sticking point all along with an Ervin trade. We likely aren't getting a top 50-ish prospect for him. The Twins shouldn't be trading him for a top 100-ish prospect. Just keep him.

 

Why is there talk of trading Buxton for Sonny Gray when most on the board are shooting down Gordon+ for Gray? That makes no sense. If anyone promoting a Buxton/Gray trade now were against a Gordon+/Gray trade then you have some explaining to do.

Why is Royce Lewis untouchable? I think that is the better move (patience) than trading Gordon now for a good starting pitcher. The Twins window is opening now. Bring up Gordon next year and trade the player that is probably 4+ years away for a very good SP.

Right now Royce Lewis is untouchable because I do not think they can trade him because of  being a recent draft pick.

This thread  says nothing to the value of Santana.  Someone with a claim of inside knowledge makes a statement. Is there a track record of accuracy of these statements?  Nothing that should be taken as a fact.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Source:

Yankees are pursuing Santana. Like that he is around for next year at a reasonable rate as well.

Willing to give up "fair" value.

Torress, Fraizer, Sheffield and Mateo all not in play.

Adams likely not in play either, Twins would have to figure out a way to sweeten the pot quite a bit.

Names being mentioned: Tate, Abreu, Acevedo.

Yankees also seem interested in Escobar, but hearing the Twins have no desire to move him, unless they are "blown away"

 

Interesting. My trade idea with the Yankees on Zone Coverage was Mateo+Bird. Tate wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. Levine would know a lot about him, too.

[adorduan]

 

I'd personally target the Astros, and I think we would get the most from them from an asset like Santana.

Problem with the Yankees is that even though Santana is affordable, they don't really mind or care. Houston? That is more important to them.

Luhnow loves his prospects, you won't get fair value from him.

[Squirrel]

 

This thread  says nothing to the value of Santana.  Someone with a claim of inside knowledge makes a statement. Is there a track record of accuracy of these statements?  Nothing that should be taken as a fact.

Yup. Exactly, which is why there is a big 'Rumor' heading up the title of the thread, which is what it is unless sources and content is verified. That said, there's no reason we can't speculate, throw out hypotheticals, dream or be practical in trade talk. That's really all this thread is. It gives us something to ponder when asked 'Is this enough for so and so?' 'Do you pull the trigger on that?' 'Is this really what we need?' 'What would it really take?' These are all just opinions and ideas.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Luhnow loves his prospects, you won't get fair value from him.

Seems like Luhnow has given up fair value (or more) in his deals for Giles and Gomez...

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hard pass. We shouldn't trade Santana now unless we are getting back at least one controllable starter who is ready for his big league tryout and has a good chance of being in next year's rotation. That's next year, not 2019 or 2020. We need to get Santana's replacement out of the trade.

This is basically saying you won't trade him. No one is likely to give up such a starter for Ervin right now, they would just use the young starter themselves.

 

What if Gonsalves came up to take Ervin's place? You could think of him as the trade return, and the other prospects as acquired by other means.

 

Besides, Ervin's true role on the team isn't just as a starting pitcher, it is as the veteran innings eating short-ish term ~$13 mil per season starting pitcher. That can come on the FA market this winter.

[kab21]

 

Right now Royce Lewis is untouchable because I do not think they can trade him because of  being a recent draft pick.

This thread  says nothing to the value of Santana.  Someone with a claim of inside knowledge makes a statement. Is there a track record of accuracy of these statements?  Nothing that should be taken as a fact.

No, Lewis isn't tradeable according to the rules. Untouchable means something else. At least to me.

I think if you lurked on other team message boards then they wouldn't put nearly as high of a value on Ervin Santana as this site does. And most likely the prospects discussed are probably where his value is close to.

[Roaddog]

I think Lewis is untouchable even if he wasn't untradeable. The only way I trade him is for a young, controllable, established starting pitcher.

[kab21]

 

I think Lewis is untouchable even if he wasn't untradeable. The only way I trade him is for a young, controllable, established starting pitcher.

So you are saying he isn't untouchable?

 

That is exactly what I would trade him for. If you are set on keeping Nick Gordon to play SS then Lewis is the one big trade chip that you have to make it happen. 

 

At some point the Twins will need to make a choice on how to acquire starting pitching. They will either need to commit BIG money to a 30 year old FA or trade a really good prospect to make it happen. Neither is easy to do but this team will go nowhere without adding pitching. Make a choice. Or do both since more than 1 pitcher is likely needed.
 

[ahart10]

Keep in mind Lewis can't be traded until the winter meetings.

[Roaddog]

So you are saying he isn't untouchable?

 

That is exactly what I would trade him for. If you are set on keeping Nick Gordon to play SS then Lewis is the one big trade chip that you have to make it happen.

 

At some point the Twins will need to make a choice on how to acquire starting pitching. They will either need to commit BIG money to a 30 year old FA or trade a really good prospect to make it happen. Neither is easy to do but this team will go nowhere without adding pitching. Make a choice. Or do both since more than 1 pitcher is likely needed.

 

I guess I'm saying he isn't. If he is what could get us a bona fide ace, then I would put him on the,table if elgible.

[Mike Sixel]

There Yankees tested multiple players last year, even though they were theoretically in it. It does not seem to have hurt their performance this year. I think people vastly overestimate the long term effects of trades on emotions.

[bird]

 

They could trade Santana for those prospects, and then turn around and sign Garcia, Cahill, Cobb, Feldman, etc. for 2018.

They could also keep Santana and sign one of those four guys. That's MY vote right now.

 

Someone's gotta really blow me away to trade my most reliable starter.

[old nurse]

 

No, Lewis isn't tradeable according to the rules. Untouchable means something else. At least to me.

I think if you lurked on other team message boards then they wouldn't put nearly as high of a value on Ervin Santana as this site does. And most likely the prospects discussed are probably where his value is close to.

If you looked at the last few years of deadline trades for starting pitching you would find that teams give up a lot more than bottom prospects for competent starting pitching.

[old nurse]

 

Yup. Exactly, which is why there is a big 'Rumor' heading up the title of the thread, which even then seems to give the 'someone told me something' slightly more credibility than it deserves. That said, there's no reason we can't speculate, throw out hypotheticals, dream or be practical in trade talk. That's really all this thread is. It gives us something to ponder when asked 'Is this enough for so and so?' 'Do you pull the trigger on that?' 'Is this really what we need?' 'What would it really take?' These are all just opinions and ideas.

Artfully titled thread. The poster said they had a source and stated what they Yankees would not give up for Santana. That information is not presented as rumor, nor is it treated as such.  That is all I pointed out. Nowhere do I say not to discuss hypothetical trades with the Yankees. Nowhere do I say people should not talk about should they trade or not. Do not put words that do not exist in my post.

[prouster]

Perhaps off topic, but apparently the Twins and Yankees are in advanced talks over Jaime Garcia. Morosi says Zach Littell, New York's no. 22 prospect according to MLB.com, is "part of the talks." MLB.com gives him a 45 scouting grade. He has been very good at A+ and AA so far this year. Definitely an intriguing prospect, and a lot closer to the bigs than Ynoa.

 

Edit: Okay, I see others have brought this up in a different thread.

[kab21]

 

If you looked at the last few years of deadline trades for starting pitching you would find that teams give up a lot more than bottom prospects for competent starting pitching.

Okay, a 34 yr old with poor peripherals is going to get a haul.

 

Oh, wait you didn't say a haul of prospects. I didn't say bottom prospects either. Ervin's value is a decent prospect or two but nothing that significantly changes anything.

 

There Yankees tested multiple players last year, even though they were theoretically in it. It does not seem to have hurt their performance this year. I think people vastly overestimate the long term effects of trades on emotions.

Why continue to use this terrible comparison?

The Yankees traded top tier players that were actually going to be FA's for actual top prospects (multiple top 25 and top 50 prospects). The Twins don't have those possibilities. Their trade candidates are signed for next year and they are fetching borderline top 100 prospects that may not be up in 2018. If Twins had players like the Yankees did last year then I would fully support a trade. If Ervin was getting some of these fantasy packages that some on this site think he will get while at the same time expecting him to be awful next year then I am on board.