diehardtwinsfan Old-Timey Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 I would say it's more likely that someone puts in a claim to block him from going to a team like the Rockies/Brewers... but yeah, I think you're right Spy.
alarp33 Provisional Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 Santana's complete game today IMO shows that he would most certainly be "blocked"There are like a million teams in the wild card hunt, he would make a ton of sense for the Mariners for example, but would likely get claimed from a few teams before them. June '17 - today. 5.00 ERA, 5.49 FIP, 4.79 xFIPJune '16 - Aug '16. 3.26 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 4.24 xFIP He cleared waivers in 2016. Certainly be blocked? Hardly.
jorgenswest Verified Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 Santana will be claimed. If another team put a similar pitcher to Santana on the wire, they absolutely should claim him. No way they would find a comparable pitcher at 13 million dollars on the market this winter.
Otto von Ballpark Old-Timey Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 Santana will be claimed. If another team put a similar pitcher to Santana on the wire, they absolutely should claim him. No way they would find a comparable pitcher at 13 million dollars on the market this winter.That's not the issue, though. Putting in a claim during August trade waivers doesn't get you the player, and might actually make you less likely to get the player (limiting your negotiating period to the next 48 hours rather than the whole month). Santana at 2/27 with a third year option could have been the best FA SP deal of last offseason, but recall he cleared August trade waivers last year. It's more complicated than just "see player, claim player."
Doomtints Verified Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 If Santana or Dozier are moved before 2018 it will be over the winter. For Santana it makes sense to keep him until July of next year. Dozier can go during the offseason for pitching prospects. Fini, mic drop, whatever.
jorgenswest Verified Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 That's not the issue, though. Putting in a claim during August trade waivers doesn't get you the player, and might actually make you less likely to get the player (limiting your negotiating period to the next 48 hours rather than the whole month).Santana at 2/27 with a third year option could have been the best FA SP deal of last offseason, but recall he cleared August trade waivers last year. It's more complicated than just "see player, claim player."I get that it doesn't get you the player, but it does make you the only team in the running. The only reason not to make the claim is you don't want to take on the contract. Now that Santana only has one year left, it is a much smaller risk. If a similar pitcher were available, the Twins should make the claim and try to get a good deal.
Otto von Ballpark Old-Timey Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 I get that it doesn't get you the player, but it does make you the only team in the running. The only reason not to make the claim is you don't want to take on the contract.Not true at all. You think no MLB team wanted to take Ervin's contract last August? 2/27 with a 3rd year team option for a guy who was one of the best starters in MLB July into August? That's not that much different than 1/13.5 with the same team option for a guy that is scuffling the last few months and his worst FIP in 5 years. And it makes you the only team in the running for 48 hours only. After which the player can't be traded at all. If you are the Brewers, for example, and you could use Ervin, but you also know the Twins are still fringe contenders like yourself and they have a high asking price for Ervin, which do you prefer -- an exclusive 48 negotiating window now, or potentially the whole month to negotiate, with the potential for changed circumstances and asking price? It's a real trade off, and in most situations, teams prefer the latter.
jorgenswest Verified Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 Are there Ervin comps in August trades? Starters having good seasons on a below market contract. I think the difference between 1 and 2 years is huge. I only see rentals, pitchers struggling or longer term contract dumps.
DaveW Old-Timey Member Posted August 3, 2017 Author Posted August 3, 2017 If Santana were a free agent after this year he would likely get a 3 year-35-40 million dollar contract, the fact that he can be had for 1.25 years for $16ish million makes him not only a good value/target for teams in the playoff hunt but most teams in the MLB in general
Mike Sixel Old-Timey Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 If Santana were a free agent after this year he would likely get a 3 year-35-40 million dollar contract, the fact that he can be had for 1.25 years for $16ish million makes him not only a good value/target for teams in the playoff hunt but most teams in the MLB in general agreed, including the Twins..... I think they should keep him at this point. If they plan to add a FA or good SP in trade, then keep him in the off season also. If they NEED him to mentor Berrios and other young pitchers, keep him. If they don't plan to add to the SP staff, then I'd trade him, because it's clear they aren't trying to win at that point.
alarp33 Provisional Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 If Santana were a free agent after this year he would likely get a 3 year-35-40 million dollar contract, the fact that he can be had for 1.25 years for $16ish million makes him not only a good value/target for teams in the playoff hunt but most teams in the MLB in general If Santana would've been a FA last year he would've got even more than 3 for $40, considering the lack of options in Free Agency,. that does not mean 10 teams are going to rush out to put a claim in. No one claimed him last August
alarp33 Provisional Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 2016 Trade Deadline, 2016 August Waivers, '16-'17 Offseason, '17 Trade deadline... how many Trade periods need to pass before people realize Santana does not have the type of value you think he does? If Santana had anywhere near the type of value people on this board think, he would've been gone long ago.
USAFChief Twins Daily Contributor Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 Just my two cents worth: Virtually every team could use Santana (he's easily better than the middle, much less than the bottom, of most team's rotations), and the money's not outrageous. I have to believe he'd be claimed. I know if I was a GM, I'm claiming him, and if I can work out a trade, great. If not, at least none of my competition gets him either. Also...how do we know for a fact that Santana wasn't claimed last year?
alarp33 Provisional Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 Just my two cents worth: Virtually every team could use Santana, and the money's not outrageous. I have to believe he'd be claimed. I know if I was a GM, I'm claiming him, and if I can work out a trade, great. If not, at least none of my competition does. Also...how do we know for a fact that Santana wasn't claimed last year? http://www.twincities.com/2016/08/27/minnesota-twins-ace-ervin-santana-clears-waivers/
USAFChief Twins Daily Contributor Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 http://www.twincities.com/2016/08/27/minnesota-twins-ace-ervin-santana-clears-waivers/OK, I'll take that as near-fact. thanks.
Rosterman Verified Member Posted August 3, 2017 Posted August 3, 2017 This is interesting. Because if there are claims, then it is totally in the Twins court about how much they want to rid themselves of Santana. And a team claiming him, trading for him, is on the hook for the salary, but they also have the ability to use him as a trading chip themselves, so it can be win-win for pretty much any team in baseball. Depends on the players offered in return. And how badly the Twins want the $13 million to NOT spend in 2018.
Brock Beauchamp Site Manager Posted August 4, 2017 Posted August 4, 2017 agreed, including the Twins..... I think they should keep him at this point. If they plan to add a FA or good SP in trade, then keep him in the off season also. If they NEED him to mentor Berrios and other young pitchers, keep him. If they don't plan to add to the SP staff, then I'd trade him, because it's clear they aren't trying to win at that point.If they don't plan to add a pitcher this offseason, what's the point of playing baseball in Minnesota at all? This team has the youngest lineup in baseball (to my knowledge) and they can flirt with a .500 record this season. If you're not going to buy at that point, there is no time to buy.
diehardtwinsfan Old-Timey Member Posted August 4, 2017 Posted August 4, 2017 If they don't plan to add a pitcher this offseason, what's the point of playing baseball in Minnesota at all? This team has the youngest lineup in baseball (to my knowledge) and they can flirt with a .500 record this season. If you're not going to buy at that point, there is no time to buy. This... I do hope that they will use trades/FA this offseason as they really will be walking into 2018 with a couple of big holes that if plugged are the difference between another season like this and a playoff team. I just hope they go big and sign an above average starting and relief pitcher to a long term contract.
Billy Amick Wichita Wind Surge - AA 1B/3B Despite hitting just .194, the 23-year-old ranks fourth in the Texas League in Home Runs (17) and sixth in RBI (50). Explore Billy Amick News >
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.