Rumor: Yankees and Twins had conversations about Santana

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sure, but I doubt a high-end prospect is on the table, and I wouldn't want to close the door on other avenues to value.  Hanging on to Santana isn't going to net you a high-end prospect either.

 

If Santana's age and peripherals catch up to him, this might be our last best chance to cash him in.  If the rest of our team takes another step forward in 2018, this might be our last chance to be sellers for awhile too.  I'd be exploring a lot of deals right now.

That's fair. I'm just not in that big of a rush to deal Santana in the first place. Dozier, sure, I probably take a lesser deal with him because he's not vital to the Twins winning in 2018 and beyond... but it's hard to see this team taking a step forward without a nearly-ready prospect in return for Santana. Gonsalves and Romero will likely help the rotation in 2018 but I don't see them solving the entire problem.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

If Santana's age and peripherals catch up to him, this might be our last best chance to cash him in.  If the rest of our team takes another step forward in 2018, this might be our last chance to be sellers for awhile too.  I'd be exploring a lot of deals right now.

I certainly hope we aren't making trades from a position of weakness. Heyman called the pitching market a "seller's market" and I hope he's right.

[bluechipper]

 

I'm not sure how you can compare Quintana to Santana, they are nowhere near the same pitcher for nearly every reason.

-He is younger
-He is better
-He is signed through 2020

The Yankees would be insane to give up Frazier for a guy like Santana.

What am I missing on Frazier? He puts up good, but not great numbers, strikes out a lot, and is a corner outfielder. Besides the part about every Yankees prospect comes up and mashes, I have always been confused by his high rankings.

[Dman]

 

if ML ready, why trade for Santana? near ready? sure. ready ready, not likely.

Well I did say near ready and the Tigers traded Cespedes who was a rental for Fullmer who was at AA and near ready to start in MLB.  That worked out pretty well for the Tigers.

 

I would call Gonsalves and Romero near ready as well.  No prospect is ever ready, ready until they have been successful at the MLB level.  So unless the Twins trade MLB starter for MLB starter then there will be risk involved.  Your near ready prospect could end up being a AAAA player.

 

All I was trying to say is they should be looking at guys closer to ready for MLB as opposed to someone in rookie ball.

[gunnarthor]

 

What am I missing on Frazier? He puts up good, but not great numbers, strikes out a lot, and is a corner outfielder. Besides the part about every Yankees prospect comes up and mashes, I have always been confused by his high rankings.

RH power is pretty rare. 

[Roaddog]

I like Santana, don't get me wrong. I just don't want to hold on to him too long and be stuck with another ineffective pitcher. Don't give him away, but if you any get a few young pitchers with promise, do it.

[bluechipper]

 

RH power is pretty rare. 

The Yankees sure have cornered the market on young right handed power then.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If Adams or Sheffield were on the table, they would have my ear... not quite sure I'd call these talks (assuming this is legit) serious if the names being listed are the ones actually in discussions... I'd call that "sending out feelers."

[cmoss84]

Like many of you are saying, don't trade Santana unless you get blown away. A handful of teams out there will give pretty decent offers to avoid the cost of a Gray/Darvish. How desperate will the nats get with Strasburg out? Robles would be nice (not likely, I know).

[jimmer]

I was all for trading Santana at the deadline last year.

[drivlikejehu]

I don't need to be blown away, there's just no reason to trade Santana for minor league filler. A fair trade wouldn't have to include a top 50 prospect or maybe not even a top 100 prospect, but it would then require a couple prospects in the next tier.

[Roaddog]

I don't need to be blown away, there's just no reason to trade Santana for minor league filler. A fair trade wouldn't have to include a top 50 prospect or maybe not even a top 100 prospect, but it would then require a couple prospects in the next tier.

Definitely not for filler. Legit prospects. We don't need to trade him. He's more valuable to keep than trade for filler

[Winston Smith]

Is this a 24 hour thing again?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was all for trading Santana at the deadline last year.

Is Santana's value lower, the same, or higher than it was one year ago?

 

I'm inclined to believe it's slightly higher. I don't think it's lower, that's for sure.

[drjim]

Is Santana's value lower, the same, or higher than it was one year ago?

 

I'm inclined to believe it's slightly higher. I don't think it's lower, that's for sure.

It's higher now. He cleared waivers last year, he wouldn't clear this year.

[jimmer]

Is Santana's value lower, the same, or higher than it was one year ago?

 

I'm inclined to believe it's slightly higher. I don't think it's lower, that's for sure.

I think its lower. The team acquiring him will get him for one less year. Thats one less quality year of control at a very team friendly salary. Have to take salary and years of control into account when talking value.

 

And, IMO, he was pitching better at this point last year than this year as well.

[Mike Sixel]

Would you trade Buxton for Gray? The Twins have Rosario, Kepler, Grossman, Granite, Wade, and corner OF is "easy" to get in FA/trade later.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think its lower. The team acquiring him will get him for one less year. Thats one less quality year of control at a very team friendly salary. And, IMO, he was pitching better at this point last year than this year as well.

I don't see it that way. Now Santana is entering the range where almost any team could take on his salary without seriously hurting their payroll for 2+ seasons, which increases his value a little.

 

2.5 years + vesting option at ~$13m per season is a risk.

 

1.5 years + vesting option at ~$13m per season is considerably less risk. If he's still performing, you snag that option and get an extra year but your actual risk is under $20m if things go wrong.

 

I know if I was running a win now team, I'd look more favorably on 1.5 + 1 years of control over the risk of 2.5 + 1 years of control.

[jorgenswest]

Would you trade Buxton for Gray? The Twins have Rosario, Kepler, Grossman, Granite, Wade, and corner OF is "easy" to get in FA/trade later.....

I wouldn't. The drop defensively from Buxton to Granite both in range and arm were very evident.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wouldn't. The drop defensively from Buxton to Granite both in range and arm were very evident.

 

as is the drop from Gray to colon or turley or wilk et al.....but fair answer!

[bluechipper]

 

Would you trade Buxton for Gray? The Twins have Rosario, Kepler, Grossman, Granite, Wade, and corner OF is "easy" to get in FA/trade later.....

I wouldn't. Let's remember what home ballpark Gray pitches in and see how those numbers translate to Target Field.

[drjim]

I don't see it that way. Now Santana is entering the range where almost any team could take on his salary without seriously hurting their payroll for 2+ seasons, which increases his value a little.

 

2.5 years + vesting option at ~$13m per season is a risk.

 

1.5 years + vesting option at ~$13m per season is considerably less risk. If he's still performing, you snag that option and get an extra year but your actual risk is under $20m if things go wrong.

 

I know if I was running a win now team, I'd look more favorably on 1.5 + 1 years of control over the risk of 2.5 + 1 years of control.

Absolutely. For a pitcher of Santana's age it is more about minimizing risk than having the extra control.

 

The other issue is Santana is now another year clear of his steroid suspension, which changes risk calculus relative to last year.

[AlwaysinModeration]

In the off-season I looked up a bunch of pitchers that were similar in age and performance as Santana. I don't have the list with me (I could probably find it in comments I made), but I do remember clearly that almost all of that declined rapidly, with most being either ineffective or out of baseball within two years.

 

Santana has put up great numbers - elite, in fact - from last June to this June. He is going to decline soon. The Twins FO should absolutely be selling him and trying to get controllable starting pitching in return. If it is near MLB ready, great. But if it is 2-3 years away with high upside, I'd take that too.

[gunnarthor]

 

Would you trade Buxton for Gray? The Twins have Rosario, Kepler, Grossman, Granite, Wade, and corner OF is "easy" to get in FA/trade later.....

No. Buxton's bat isn't where we want it to be and I know WAR isn't a great stat but Buxton is more valuable than Grey and has more years of control. And that assumes his bat doesn't improve. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's higher now. He cleared waivers last year, he wouldn't clear this year.

I'm not sure if that means his trade value is higher.  He's due less money, so there's less risk to claiming him, but that doesn't necessarily mean a team will give up more talent in trade (at least not meaningfully so).  His peripherals have gotten worse this year and he's a year older; in the short-term, he also seems to be in a slump where he was not last last season.

 

I'd guess it's about a wash.  Whatever he gains for having less risk in cash, he loses for being a bit more suspect in performance.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No. Buxton's bat isn't where we want it to be and I know WAR isn't a great stat but Buxton is more valuable than Grey and has more years of control. And that assumes his bat doesn't improve. 

 

well, it's really

 

Buxton - new corner OF compared to Gray - colon, santiago, gibson, et. al. 

 

but fair! it's why I asked.

[spinowner]

I don't know names, but I'd say if Santana is traded we need to get the best pitcher(s) we can from them.

[h2oface]

Gray or grey........ as a color or colour, both are correct, depending if you prefer what is in favor or favour in America English or British English. For what it is worth, Sonny Douglas Gray, a person's name -- it is spelled only one way.

[markos]

 

Would you trade Buxton for Gray? The Twins have Rosario, Kepler, Grossman, Granite, Wade, and corner OF is "easy" to get in FA/trade later.....

I know this isn't exactly what you asked (and I don't know if Gray is the guy I'd target...) but I have had thoughts that Kepler is the guy to dangle to try to get high-end pitching. Even though Buxton isn't hitting, I don't think he is replaceable by anyone in the organization at center. I'm as big a fan of Granite as you can find, but I don't think his defense, good as it is, matches Buxton's (for example, I'm 100% certain that Buxton catches Utley's double the other night). And as you mentioned, finding corner outfielders can be easier.

[rghrbek]

 

In the off-season I looked up a bunch of pitchers that were similar in age and performance as Santana. I don't have the list with me (I could probably find it in comments I made), but I do remember clearly that almost all of that declined rapidly, with most being either ineffective or out of baseball within two years.

Santana has put up great numbers - elite, in fact - from last June to this June. He is going to decline soon. The Twins FO should absolutely be selling him and trying to get controllable starting pitching in return. If it is near MLB ready, great. But if it is 2-3 years away with high upside, I'd take that too.

 

Some would argue based on the last 10 starts, that his decline has started...