Article: Deadline Primer: Are Twins Buyers Or Sellers?

[Willihammer]

The reason a pitching starved team like the Twins should trade their best pitcher is deadline premium. Its not a perfect comp but the Jeff Samardzija/Hammel trade comes to mind. Both pitchers were in the middle of career seasons and outperforming their career norms and peripherals when they were traded. I think pretty much everyone thought at the time that the Athletics paid a hefty premium to make their (failed) playoff push. Nobody knows that a buyer like that is out there this season, obviously. But if there is, then its fair to hope the Twins would be sellers in that case.

[james2334]

I think it's going to be a quiet trade deadline for the Twins, They aren't quite close enough to sell off prospects to take a run at the playoffs and yet they are too close to have a firesale and give up important players without a big return. I would guess that they trade a fringe prospect such as a Derick Rodriquez for a mediocre relief arm on a one year contract from a non-contending team. I'll be surprised if they do anything bigger than that. 

[yarnivek1972]

The reason a pitching starved team like the Twins should trade their best pitcher is deadline premium. Its not a perfect comp but the Jeff Samardzija/Hammel trade comes to mind. Both pitchers were in the middle of career seasons and outperforming their career norms and peripherals when they were traded. I think pretty much everyone thought at the time that the Athletics paid a hefty premium to make their (failed) playoff push. Nobody knows that a buyer like that is out there this season, obviously. But if there is, then its fair to hope the Twins would be sellers in that case.

Two things about that trade relevant to this discussion. Samardzjia was 29 and Hammel was 31. Ervin is 34. The Cubs didn't get a starting pitcher back.

 

As has been said, any team trading for Santana probably doesn't have MLB pitching (or close to) that they are willing to trade to get him.

Edited July 11, 2017 by yarnivek1972

[Willihammer]

 

Two things about that trade relevant to this discussion. Samardzjia was 29 and Hammel was 31. Ervin is 34. The Cubs didn't get a starting pitcher back.

As has been said, any team trading for Santana probably doesn't have MLB pitching (or close to) that they are willing to trade to get him.

Its not a perfect comp as I said. Point is, sometimes teams pay extreme prices at the deadline. And also that teams do pay for guys who are screaming for regression.

 

If the return is great enough then it doesn't need to be MLB-ready pitching necessarily. The Twins can then (theoretically) re-balance for pitching in the offseason, and roll Santana's contract into signing another FA or two.

[70charger]

 

 

If the return is great enough then it doesn't need to be MLB-ready pitching necessarily. The Twins can then (theoretically) re-balance for pitching in the offseason, and roll Santana's contract into signing another FA or two.

 

That's kind of how I read your post. Addison Russell was traded in the example transaction, and he was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, at an up the middle position, in the high minors. I'm not saying we get the next Addison Russell, I'm just saying that if the guy is a very quality guy who's mostly ready to go, who cares too much if he's not a pitcher? If you end up with two guys like Nick Gordon, why don't you flip one in the offseason for the pitcher that you like? It's a damn good currency to have if you're on the pitching market.

[Kwak]

 

That's kind of how I read your post. Addison Russell was traded in the example transaction, and he was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, at an up the middle position, in the high minors. I'm not saying we get the next Addison Russell, I'm just saying that if the guy is a very quality guy who's mostly ready to go, who cares too much if he's not a pitcher? If you end up with two guys like Nick Gordon, why don't you flip one in the offseason for the pitcher that you like? It's a damn good currency to have if you're on the pitching market.

That's the logic concerning the Buxton trade proposal--for the off-season.

[markos]

 

Two things about that trade relevant to this discussion. Samardzjia was 29 and Hammel was 31. Ervin is 34. The Cubs didn't get a starting pitcher back.

As has been said, any team trading for Santana probably doesn't have MLB pitching (or close to) that they are willing to trade to get him.

Perhaps better examples were when the Cubs were able to trade Scott Feldman (Jake Arrieta) and Ryan Dempster (Kyle Hendricks). Even mid-rotation starters can acquire good players.

 

Several current contenders are relying on young starters, many of whom have had durability issues in the past. It isn't crazy to think that teams like Colorado or Milwaulkee, maybe New York - teams where every win matters going forward - would want to bring in someone to solidify the middle of the rotation and provide space to allow them to manage the workload of their young starters. The Cubs might actually see Santana as an upgrade to Lackey. If the Twins can get a Gonsalves-esque prospect (fringe top-100 pitcher in AA or higher) for Santana, I think they will be better off pulling the trigger (assuming they are sub-.500 at the deadline). I think that Santana is replaceable via free agency next winter.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Its not a perfect comp as I said. Point is, sometimes teams pay extreme prices at the deadline. And also that teams do pay for guys who are screaming for regression.

 

If the return is great enough then it doesn't need to be MLB-ready pitching necessarily. The Twins can then (theoretically) re-balance for pitching in the offseason, and roll Santana's contract into signing another FA or two.

 

That's a bit more understandable, but prospect for prospect doesn't always work, and prospect for established major league pitching will likely end up with a net loss.  I would probably move ESan for that major league ready high ceiling C prospect, but that is still a 2018 move. ESan could get a guy like Justus Sheffield, but he's in AA. He would be another depth option for 2018 with a reasonable shot at breaking in at some point there, but hardly someone to rely on. 

 

For pitching that is ready now, I still think Dozier is the best shot.... You might get lucky with Grossman or Kintzler, but I don't think either would get much in terms of high ceiling.

[Thrylos]

 

 

I look at the minors and see Romero, Gonsalves and Thorpe(any word on his velocity since his return?) as potential average to above average pitchers with a bunch of bullpen arms too but the only hitting reinforcement appears to be Gordon. That worries me. I wouldn't narrow my returns to just pitchers. We need both IMO.

 

Well, this is true in the high minors.   Big reason for this is that a lot of the young "hitting reinforcement" is in the bigs already.  Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco are yet to enter their prime. While they will be entering their prime, they can be supplemented by Gordon (in Dozier's spot) and Garver.  Maybe LaMonte Wade.  After those 3, ETA 2019 or so you got (random order) Lewin Diaz, Luis Arraez, Jermaine Palacios, Jaylin Davis and 2020 or so  Wander Javier, Travis Blackenhorn, Akil Baddoo.  There is a pipeline, but there are some gaps, esp. at the OF, but I suspect that some of these infielders could be converted to OFs at some point fairly painlessly.   There are not (m)any "top-100" names, but not many national prospect writers spend much time in Ft. Myers, E-town or Cedar Rapids... C'est la vie

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see much of anything interesting happening in terms of trades this season. Nothing interesting happened in FA or trades in the offseason, and I don't know what is really all that different now. They are about 5 games ahead of what most here projected they'd be, that's in the margin of error for sure. The hitters and pitchers have all been about what you'd expect, except maybe Dozier is worse and Kintzler and ESan a bit better. I'm not sure what's different now, than 4 months ago that would indicate movement is afoot.

[SwainZag]

 

  
But if the reason other teams would trade for Santana now is because he's cheaper, doesn't that also mean the Twins would get a lower return?

The question isn't, will other yes want Santana? It is, will other teams want Santana at a price that makes it worthwhile for the Twins to move him? Given the way his season has trended, and that the Twins themselves are fringe contenders this year, that seems doubtful.

 

If we are being honest fans, Ervin Santana isn't the most valuable asset in the league right now, so yes they will get a lower return for him than say a guy like...Sonny Gray, but that doesn't meant he wouldn't bring back a good return.

 

Will there be a team out there willing to give that return? Who knows.

[SF Twins Fan]

Ken Rosenthal‏Verified account @Ken_Rosenthal  36m36 minutes ago
More
Sources: #Twins checking on controllable starters. List would include Quintana, Gray, as well as someone like Straily (control through ’20).

 

Ken Rosenthal just tweeted the above out, so maybe the Twins will surprise everyone.

[SF Twins Fan]

Still trying to figure out how to post other people's tweets.

 

 

[Minnesotatwins005]

Quintana would cost probably Nick Gordon, Gonslaves, Romero and a lower A level prospect. I think he is a very durable, good starter with a great contract but that is a steep asking price. We are more then just one player away so I'm in the camp of getting max value for Santana, Kintzler, and Dozier and keep building on our young players.

[Mike Sixel]

FWIW:

 

Tye: Would someone like Stroman, Gray, or Archer be a reasonable get for the Twins?

Keith Law: It makes absolutely no sense for the Twins to trade prospects for major-league help right now.

[gheggs42]

 

Quintana would cost probably Nick Gordon, Gonslaves, Romero and a lower A level prospect. I think he is a very durable, good starter with a great contract but that is a steep asking price. We are more then just one player away so I'm in the camp of getting max value for Santana, Kintzler, and Dozier and keep building on our young players.

I think he would cost a lot more than that. I've read the Sox are asking for guys like Martes and Tucker from the Astros or Torres and Frazier from the Yankees as just the starting points..

Edited July 11, 2017 by gheggs42

[markos]

 

I think he would cost a lot more than that. I've read the Sox are asking for guys like Martes and Tucker from the Astros or Torres and Frazier from the Yankees as just the starting points..

I think the Sox are going have to settle for less for Quintana than they got for Sale, and at least in my opinion both of those starting packages are equivalent to the Moancada-Kopech duo that headlined the Sale trade. I'm guessing he is traded for less, perhaps significantly less.

[jorgenswest]

Trading for Quintana probably means they will come up a little behind the Indians and Royals this year a little behind the White Sox in the future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Still trying to figure out how to post other people's tweets.

"Copy link to Tweet" on Twitter (^ drop down menu), then just paste it on its own line in your comment here. Once submitted, the site will automatically parse it and display the tweet. Edited July 11, 2017 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

[Dr. Evil]

Do not trade Irvin Santana. Why on earth would we offload the backbone of our rotation with "hopes" of replacing him in the offseason?

[SF Twins Fan]

https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/884882394406367232

 

 

 

 

It worked!!

Edited July 11, 2017 by SF Twins Fan

[Mr. Brooks]

I think the Sox are going have to settle for less for Quintana than they got for Sale, and at least in my opinion both of those starting packages are equivalent to the Moancada-Kopech duo that headlined the Sale trade. I'm guessing he is traded for less, perhaps significantly less.

I think the Sale trade was an off-season deal though, correct?

I think with the trade deadline premium they could get close to as much for Quintana.

[Otto von Ballpark]

https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/884882394406367232

 

 

 

 

It worked!!

FYI, for whatever reason, I think edits might break it. At least they did for me earlier today.

[Otto von Ballpark]

[drjim]

I'm in agreement with whoever said Matt Moore from the Giants, would like to see the Twins go for a starter like that or a bullpen guy like Hunter Strickland from the SF Giants.

That or a guy like James Paxton from the Mariners and a Steve Chisek type for the bullpen.

Twins need more than just 1 controllable starter, they need a bullpen type too. IF your going to make a move maybe you part with a little less exciting top prospect types like Gordon going after a Moore or a Paxton.

Moore is a guy I would target. I wonder if he would play up in front of a better d.

 

Don't have a good sense of what he would cost.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Moore is a guy I would target. I wonder if he would play up in front of a better d.

Don't have a good sense of what he would cost.

He cost Matt Duffy and two a ball prospects a year ago (one of whom had been a big time 16 year old international signing years prior.) Moore is a year older and has a year less of control now, but his velocity is as good as it has been for years and his year so far this year has not been strong. I'd check in on him too to see about asking price

[Oxtung]

Well, this is true in the high minors. Big reason for this is that a lot of the young "hitting reinforcement" is in the bigs already. Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco are yet to enter their prime. While they will be entering their prime, they can be supplemented by Gordon (in Dozier's spot) and Garver. Maybe LaMonte Wade. After those 3, ETA 2019 or so you got (random order) Lewin Diaz, Luis Arraez, Jermaine Palacios, Jaylin Davis and 2020 or so Wander Javier, Travis Blackenhorn, Akil Baddoo. There is a pipeline, but there are some gaps, esp. at the OF, but I suspect that some of these infielders could be converted to OFs at some point fairly painlessly. There are not (m)any "top-100" names, but not many national prospect writers spend much time in Ft. Myers, E-town or Cedar Rapids... C'est la vie

Absolutely Sano, Buxton, etc are still young and that is contributing to the void. That said there are some fairly significant question marks amongst that group. There is a real chance they never pan out as more than average over the next couple of years. That might not be a 50/50 chance but it certainly isn't zero either.

 

My point is there isn't much in the pipeline that projects to be an above average player over the next couple of years until you dip down into rookie ball. I don't think we should be excluding hitters from our trade returns because IMO there is a pretty decent chance not all of our young guys improve and we need some reinforcements.

[AlwaysinModeration]

The Phillies have a guy named Altherr. Any chance we could deal Altbrunansky for him?

This was a good, albeit highly random, comment

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This was a good, albeit highly random, comment

I will take all of that as a compliment!