Turley

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not saying that they did anything. My point is that I would rather they drive the car for a bit prior to replacing parts. They haven't had the keys for even a half a season yet.

 

I guess I don't know why anyone would have to be in the FO for any time, to know that the worst SP in MLB needed retooling. Why would they?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

And how did those 8th, 9th, 10th, etc starters do?

 

That's what I thought.

Please elaborate...

[kab21]

 

What did they do, at all, to fix the SP this off season?

It may not have been (almost definitely wasn't) you but many on this board were upset that Santiago was brought back since Berrios and Mejia had to start the year in the minors. And now they are complaining that the Twins didn't bring in more veterans for the rotation.

 

And I still think Santiago will have a nice season. Obviously he has to be healthy which hopefully explains his lack of effectiveness recently.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Didn't fix the pen
Didn't improve the rotation
Didn't trade any assets for anything of value
Other than inking Castro, name one positive thing they have done?

 

a. Got rid of Plouffe so Sano can be an everyday third baseman

b. Installed Jorge Polanco, as the everyday shortstop

c. Ditto with Buxton, as the everyday centerfielder.

d. Have been managing the roster aggressively keeping a revolving door for 2-3 pitchers with AAA on a weekly basis

e. Ditto with the waiver wire and DFAs.

f. Brought in veterans with positive attitude (Gimenez, Breslow, Belisle) who even though they underperform, they can help in general with the attitude of the team and maybe get someone with a pulse at the deadline.

 

I do not think that there was a single Twins' fan who thought that this team will content this season.

 

If it were me, I'd be a more aggressive seller (Dozier, Santana, Santiago, etc.) last off-season than they were.  I would had also cleared house throughout the organization, unlike they did. 

 

However, they chose to have 2017 as a season of evaluation.  As such, the more assets (on the field, on field management and on the Front Office) they evaluate, the better.  I think that we will see more action coming this off-season and as soon as the deadline...

[Brandon Warne]

 

No, he doesn't. He has the stuff. But he lacks the command.

 

That's cool if you want to make that assessment after three MLB starts. I wouldn't do that. I already said he may not have the command to be a starter, but the upside outweighs the risk in giving it a shot.

[Loosey]

 

Everyone knew coming into the season the Twins rotation was a rather large question mark, injuries happen, it sucks but it happens, the twins had he worst rotation in baseball last year and added......literally no one.

What did they think would happen? The lack of depth was a joke, and even when injuries started piling up the lack of real solutions was a joke.

Sorry, but IMO the new twins regime are in completely over their heads.

Didn't fix the pen
Didn't improve the rotation
Didn't trade any assets for anything of value
Other than inking Castro, name one positive thing they have done?

The Twins have been winning in SPITE of the front office. Make no mistake about it.

I think you're being pretty hard on the Front Office of a team that is has won 15 more games than they had at this point last season.  

 

My opinion is the FO knew last year's team was better than the record they had.  They also knew this team still isn't a real contender and blowing money on relievers wasn't the answer.  So instead of going out and grabbing expensive bullpen arms which likely would have commanded multiple year contracts which would have hindered the youth movement.  They decided to wait and use the plug and play method. 

 

I think the current record is a pleasant surprise for the FO but they are sticking to a plan and timeline they set in place before the season.  The problem with their plan is injuries hit their best minor league relievers hard.

 

Mason Melotakis has been promoted to AAA and likely needs a few more innings there and will come up.

 

Nick Burdi would likely have been up if he hadn't gotten hurt

 

JT Chargois would also likely have been up if he wasn't hurt. 

 

Trevor May although as starter or Minor Leaguer sort of messed things up in the rotation from the get go

 

The rest of the good relievers are still in AA and probably aren't ready for MLB time (See, Rosario, Randy).   

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Yeah, because it's not good! 4.33 era in AAA 16 ERA in MLB, that means his "stuff" isn't good

 

Where are you getting these numbers from? He had a 3.49 ERA at Rochester, and a 2.46 FIP because of a ridiculously high BABIP.

[howieramone2]

 

In fairness to Turley, this could have been avoided if they planned ahead and gave him a few low leverage bullpen looks a month ago.  Either he struggles then and you know not to give him 3 starts in a pennant race, or more optimistically he gets his feet wet, makes some adjustments, and doesn't do quite so poorly in his starts.

 

Either way, it illustrates another cost to pointlessly rostering guys with no future like Wimmers for awhile.  Or more egregiously, Breslow for the last couple months.

What it illustrates is, it's bitch when guys you're counting on get hurt.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The problem with their plan is injuries hit their best minor league relievers hard.

 

Mason Melotakis has been promoted to AAA and likely needs a few more innings there and will come up.

 

Nick Burdi would likely have been up if he hadn't gotten hurt

 

JT Chargois would also likely have been up if he wasn't hurt. 

 

Trevor May although as starter or Minor Leaguer sort of messed things up in the rotation from the get go

Based on his professional record, Burdi was very much a known injury risk, and probably a performance risk too.  The fact that he was healthy and productive for a couple months to begin 2017 was probably as much of a surprise as his eventual injury was a disappointment

 

Actually May was a solid injury risk too, given the way 2015-2016 played out for him.

 

And let's not forget that Chargois also missed multiple seasons with injury in the minor leagues.

 

Not that these aren't disappointments, but they're not complete surprises either.  Even a team in "evaluation mode" should probably have better contingency plans than what we're rolled out there for the first few months in the pen and more recently at the back of the rotation.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 Even a team in "evaluation mode" should probably have better contingency plans than what we're rolled out there for the first few months in the pen and more recently at the back of the rotation.

 

Reality check:  We are talking about an 103 Loss team in evaluation mode.  Not a .500 team in evaluation mode. 

 

Contingency plan?  You see it in action:  Revolving door between MLB/AAA/Waiver Wire.  Turley is part of the contingency plan

[ashbury]

That's cool if you want to make that assessment after three MLB starts.

Surely you don't think that's what I'm doing. If you do, feel free to look (in vain) for a similar assessment of mine on J. O. Berrios after his first three starts in the majors, or even the fourth when he really stunk it up.

 

No, I'm not nearly the fundamental scout to make assessments. What I'm doing is piggybacking off of the scouts who are considered to be qualified, namely those of the Yankees, of the Giants, and of Sox of both the Red and White variety. The Yankees stuck with him from age 18 to 24 without ever deciding the time was right to bring him to the big club. The other three signed him and tried to make something of him for a year or so, each.

 

But in a certain sense, yeah, 3 games seems about right. Anybody can have jitters in their first game. A second game might not go any better (as a software developer, I learned early about the Second System Syndrome, which might have a parallel to trying to correct what was wrong in one's second game). But if Version 3.0 of Nik Turley's Twins game log is bad too, then yes, I'll trust my eyes, which told me that his breaking pitch had bite to it and the radar gun on the baseball was intriguingly high, but the ball never seemed to go where the catcher was set up.

 

I don't think it's a stretch to infer that he has teased team after team with his stuff, but by now has demonstrated that (no doubt not for lack of trying) he can't harness it with the necessary consistency.

[Doomtints]

As I have said before, to us it was obvious that the Twins needed to replace 3/4 of the pitching staff. However, to any incoming management team this would have seemed ridiculous. It makes sense that they wanted a year to evaluate and see for themselves. Plus, it's doubtful they got this message from the internal staff that stayed on, as they would have been trying to prove they had made good player decisions before the new sheriff arrived.

 

Consider this the "rubber year" where new management figures things out. If we're sitting here next year with the same crappy pitching staff then I think we have cause for concern. We have to put up with this year and by everyone's measure the Twins are outperforming what we expected. Lots of good stuff going on.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Surely you don't think that's what I'm doing. If you do, feel free to look (in vain) for a similar assessment of mine on J. O. Berrios after his first three starts in the majors, or even the fourth when he really stunk it up.

 

No, I'm not nearly the fundamental scout to make assessments. What I'm doing is piggybacking off of the scouts who are considered to be qualified, namely those of the Yankees, of the Giants, and of Sox of both the Red and White variety. The Yankees stuck with him from age 18 to 24 without ever deciding the time was right to bring him to the big club. The other three signed him and tried to make something of him for a year or so, each.

 

But in a certain sense, yeah, 3 games seems about right. Anybody can have jitters in their first game. A second game might not go any better (as a software developer, I learned early about the Second System Syndrome, which might have a parallel to trying to correct what was wrong in one's second game). But if Version 3.0 of Nik Turley's Twins game log is bad too, then yes, I'll trust my eyes, which told me that his breaking pitch had bite to it and the radar gun on the baseball was intriguingly high, but the ball never seemed to go where the catcher was set up.

 

I don't think it's a stretch to infer that he has teased team after team with his stuff, but by now has demonstrated that (no doubt not for lack of trying) he can't harness it with the necessary consistency.

 

This is all good if you assume that Turley didn't do anything different in those years than he did this year. I highly doubt he was hitting 94 with regularity with those organizations, and I know for sure he hadn't put up numbers close to what he was doing this year....

[Dr. Evil]

I guess I don't know why anyone would have to be in the FO for any time, to know that the worst SP in MLB needed retooling. Why would they?

I can certainly understand your line of thinking on this subject.

[old nurse]

 

Trading two SPs for one SP to the Angels didn't exactly help the depth chart, either. Speaking of the Angels, they just released Doug Fister.... Steamer actually projects that he would be the Twins 3rd best starter...

By steamer he would project to be the Angels third best starter and they left him in the minors.  Predicted performance versus what he has become. Angels saw him n the minors and did not view him as an upgrade. It is not like Chavez is that great of cost. Perhaps the Angels are hopeful for improvement because steam said Chavez should be better than he is.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I'm gonna hold you to that (the reliever bit). Using that as my opening, you bring forth great info and you are a very knowledgable baseball man.

 

That's my tip of the cap to you Sir.

 

Far too kind. Thank you.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I guess I don't know why anyone would have to be in the FO for any time, to know that the worst SP in MLB needed retooling. Why would they?

 

I don't think it's hard to see what the plan was here though. With a better defensive catcher, you can raise the water level of the entire staff. After a year of evaluating and taking some flyers, then you start making moves. 

 

Just my two cents on what I see. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This is all good if you assume that Turley didn't do anything different in those years than he did this year. I highly doubt he was hitting 94 with regularity with those organizations, and I know for sure he hadn't put up numbers close to what he was doing this year....

Would you prefer (or have preferred) Turley remain in the pen, and DFA Breslow?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Would you prefer (or have preferred) Turley remain in the pen, and DFA Breslow?

If I may answer as a fellow Turley backer, I'd prefer Turley going down to AAA for a few bullpen reps.  He's predominantly been a starter as a pro, and given how his first taste of MLB went, I'd want him to be fairly comfortable with a bullpen routine before trying him again at this level!

 

Maybe in a couple weeks, although hopefully someone else pushes Breslow out before then too.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Would you prefer (or have preferred) Turley remain in the pen, and DFA Breslow?

 

From the get-go, yes. Now? No. But I also think I prefer Melotakis -- even with lower velo -- than Breslow. But with Turley's struggles, I'd send him to Rochester to clear his head for 10 days with two starts, then bring him back as a long guy.

 

My guy in Chattanooga said in late April or early May that he thought Turley was already better than Breslow at that time, which impressed me.

[USAFChief]

This is all good if you assume that Turley didn't do anything different in those years than he did this year. I highly doubt he was hitting 94 with regularity with those organizations, and I know for sure he hadn't put up numbers close to what he was doing this year....

You think he increased his velocity this year, at what, 27 years old?

[Brandon Warne]

 

You think he increased his velocity this year, at what, 27 years old?

 

I don't think he's always thrown 94-96, no. 

 

SoxProspects.com on Turley:

 

Starting pitcher who can touch 92 with his fastball, but typically sits around 88-90 mph. Also features a curveball and changeup. Not a big strikeout pitcher, and his lack of command has limited his ability to conquer AAA hitting.

 

[jokin]

By steamer he would project to be the Angels third best starter and they left him in the minors.  Predicted performance versus what he has become. Angels saw him n the minors and did not view him as an upgrade. It is not like Chavez is that great of cost. Perhaps the Angels are hopeful for improvement because steam said Chavez should be better than he is.

Mine was not an analysis of the Angels pitching woes. The Twins have plenty of their own and the sad fact remains- taking a shot at Fister is likely a better alternative than anything that the Twins have currently healthy and available. (Fister's #s are PCL inflated, too)

[Rosterman]

 

As I have said before, to us it was obvious that the Twins needed to replace 3/4 of the pitching staff. However, to any incoming management team this would have seemed ridiculous. It makes sense that they wanted a year to evaluate and see for themselves. Plus, it's doubtful they got this message from the internal staff that stayed on, as they would have been trying to prove they had made good player decisions before the new sheriff arrived.

 

Consider this the "rubber year" where new management figures things out. If we're sitting here next year with the same crappy pitching staff then I think we have cause for concern. We have to put up with this year and by everyone's measure the Twins are outperforming what we expected. Lots of good stuff going on.

Well, looking ahead to next year the Twins need to replace 4/5th of their pitching staff.

 

We have Berrios.

 

Santana will be in walk season. Which is why he might be a better bargain and bring more back this season, but leaves us hanging.

 

Phil Hughes will be an expensive bullpen arm. Depending on what he does in 2016, cut bait.

 

Hector Santiago will be a free agent. He should be shining this season.

 

Kyle Gibson is not worth the time or money.

 

Sp who do you have? Do you GIVE some guys a break this season and let them get bombed (as you do to Turley and Wilk). Gonsalves. Jorge. Romero, Hurlbut. Slegers. Eades. These will be the guys pitching here at some point next year.

 

We always have Mejia to fall abck to. And Trevor May will be on the road to recovery, but getting him to reach 100 innings would be a modest goal.

[jorgenswest]

i would add Tyler Duffey as a possibility.

[adorduan]

I just don't get the fascination people have with this guy. He's bounced around the minors for 10 freaking years, been let go by multiple organizations, yet suddenly he's some diamond if the rough that the Twins have magically found the polishing compound for? I'm not buying it.  His 94 MPH fastballs were getting smoked all over the park yesterday because he couldn't throw a changeup for a strike and apparently was  afraid to throw his curve until Allen went out to mound.

[adorduan]

 

Mine was not an analysis of the Angels pitching woes. The Twins have plenty of their own and the sad fact remains- taking a shot at Fister is likely a better alternative than anything that the Twins have currently healthy and available. (Fister's #s are PCL inflated, too)

Well Fister signed with the Red Sox, so that's out...

[stringer bell]

I've seen the reports that Turley has upped his velo and was getting swings and misses from AA and AAA hitters with his curve. What I saw in his three starts was that he didn't have enough command with any pitch and hitters feasted on that 94 mph fastball in hittable locations in the zone.

 

A lefty with a big-breaking curve and a 94 mph fastball is intriguing, but I'd be a heck of a lot more intrigued if he were 22 instead of 27.

[Guest]

Mike Cuellar, Larry Gura, Geoff Zahn, Jamie Moyer, John Tudor, Teddy Higuera, Scott Kazmir, Rich Hill - sometimes lefties figure it out later. Someone who strikes out 54% of AA batters and then does 12+ per nine in AAA with fewer than 3 walks per nine should get a longer look, although he needs to go down to AAA to try to figure out the improvements he needs to make.

[USAFChief]

I actually hope they keep Turley around, in AAA.  He does have intriguing possibilities.