Nik Turley to start Sunday

[bluechipper]

This might be the most intriguing pitching debut of a 27 year old in Twins history. 

[jimbo92107]

What I like so far about the new FO is that they've shown a willingness to make moves, and the ones they've made so far haven't been just token moves. Turley isn't a token move, given his performance in the minors this season. It's just as good that they haven't made a move we could argue is crazy, like bringing up Romero to start before he's ready. 

[drjim]

I certainly didn't feel good about the state of the franchise, and that hasn't drastically changed. Considering how much they rely on their farm system and with how much it was touted just a couple of years ago, a lack of talent in the farm system is a rather large departure from that supposed high water mark. This is part of the reason that I don't feel that they ever really started to rebuild to start with. They've been treading water for some time in my opinion. If the new FO is telling us that the cupboard is bare in pitching prospects, that means that we're going to have to wait even longer to have any sort of real seriously competitive team. I agree that Mejia is a nice find. I can't rely on Santana given his age, which is why I'd like them to deal him. I wouldn't give him away, but if you can get a near ready pitching prospect out of the deal I'd take it. But if the FO is telling us there aren't any reinforcements coming up from the minors, if you keep Santana you're window is one year - next year. They don't have enough pitching to be real even next year. Are they closer? Sure, but with the last 6 years that this franchise has put together, a one year window at a championship isn't good enough.

 

I realize that AAA is relatively bare due to either injuries or the prospects haven't gotten there yet. I'd like them to throw a couple of the relievers into the fire now so that they're more polished come next year. Deal Santana for a ready or near ready pitching prospect if possible and bridge that gap. I do think 2019 should be a very good year and I hope they get a bit of a head start next season with as many of the lower level pitching prospects as possible. There is talent there, it's just not in AAA and what is in AAA is of bullpen stock and on mostly on the DL.

 

I'm not advocating pushing guys that clearly aren't ready, but those that are on the cusp should be thrown into the fire at this point. Even the AAAA types should be brought up, given a chance, and then dealt with accordingly. Get them out of the system and push some of the prospects lower in the minors.

 

All that said, I don't feel that the situation is as bad as what I describe in my first paragraph. My frustration is that the hitters are ready now and with the lag in pitching, I don't think they're maximizing their potential as well as they could. They need to find a way to get more pitching to bridge that gap without selling the farm. The FA class sucks, so the braintrust needs to get creative.

I'll offer three points in response to this.

 

First, I agree that it was a very mediocre rebuild. I think it was part incompetence, part the game passing Ryan by, part a desire to try and be competitive in a new stadium. But they obviously never fully bought into a rebuild, weren't especially creative, and hung on to and extended way too much mediocrity. It wasn't a complete disaster, there is talent here, but definitely opportunities missed.

 

Second, I really disagree the window is only next year. They certainly don't have great pitching depth coming up, but they do have some, and potentially some big league pieces to build around. In many ways the window is just opening and with some breaks could be quite fruitful. The weak farm system does shrink the margin of error though.

 

Finally, I just don't get the strong push for marginal guys to get promoted. Them getting some reps is not going to matter. If something pops and they start flashing in the minors, they'll get a chance.

[Mike Sixel]

Fearless prediction: Nik Turley pitches good enough to avoid being optioned and get another start. He becomes a poor man's Rich Hill with that curve ball. Averages 5.2 innings per start with ERA under 3.50, helping to sustain the Twins unlikely quest for AL Central championship (with a record worse than both wild card teams).

ERA under 3.5? Good luck with that.

[wsnydes]

I'll offer three points in response to this.

 

First, I agree that it was a very mediocre rebuild. I think it was part incompetence, part the game passing Ryan by, part a desire to try and be competitive in a new stadium. But they obviously never fully bought into a rebuild, weren't especially creative, and hung on to and extended way too much mediocrity. It wasn't a complete disaster, there is talent here, but definitely opportunities missed.

 

Second, I really disagree the window is only next year. They certainly don't have great pitching depth coming up, but they do have some, and potentially some big league pieces to build around. In many ways the window is just opening and with some breaks could be quite fruitful. The weak farm system does shrink the margin of error though.

 

Finally, I just don't get the strong push for marginal guys to get promoted. Them getting some reps is not going to matter. If something pops and they start flashing in the minors, they'll get a chance.

I agree completely with your first point. For a variety of reasons, the FO never bought into a rebuild.

 

Secondly, what I was trying to convey in my last paragraph, perhaps poorly, is that I don't believe the window is just next year either. I'm not even convinced that it starts next year. By keeping Santana, I do think you stunt the process some though. This is assuming they're able to bring in near ready prospect type pitcher in return. I feel that maximizes the potential if this team at the right time. This would also negate some of the need to bring up aaaa types en masse.

[nicksaviking]

I'm surprised to see Turley start over Heston... so I guess Heston's in the Wilk/Wheeler/Haley role now? Turley's getting his first major league start at age 27 but he does get strikeouts, which is nice.

They still need a sixth starter.

 

I'm not a Heston fan and would prefer someone who hasn't been kicked to the curb by a different team every month, but they do need depth.

[jud6312]

I've been critical of the "journeyman" mode the team has taken in this and previous seasons, mainly because of the numbers/pedigree of the guys they've been summoning - late 20s/early 30s, pedestrian stuff, pedestrian numbers in the minors, and underwhelming runs in MLB (albeit in SSS) - i.e. Tepesch, Albers, etc.

 

While Turley could very well be a JAG, he at least has put up consistently impressive K totals so far this year.

 

Maybe this spot start will lead to him landing a spot in the bullpen, where he could very well excel.

 

I think this is the kind of move most of us have wanted - not a retread that hasn't been able to stick in the majors. Sure, he could turn out to be a flamed out prospect instead, but at least it's a guy that hasn't already flamed out for someone else for a change.

[70charger]

If you cycle through enough retreads, you eventually find an interesting one.

San Fran has a pretty weak offense, might be a good way for him to break in, could have some success. Pitchers can follow strange development curves.

If you have a million Terry Ryans working a million phones to a million different indy leagues, eventually he'll write Shakespeare. Or something. What are we talking about again?

[Circus Boy]

When Turley takes the field, how Minnesota Nice would it be if the fans started chanting, "Fresh fish! Fresh fish! Fresh fish!"

[Riverbrian]

It's a huge moment for Nik and his loved ones who have supported him from the beginning. 

 

I hope he becomes a major league ballplayer and remains one. 

 

I love these stories and happy endings are good for him and us. 

[drjim]

I agree completely with your first point. For a variety of reasons, the FO never bought into a rebuild.

 

Secondly, what I was trying to convey in my last paragraph, perhaps poorly, is that I don't believe the window is just next year either. I'm not even convinced that it starts next year. By keeping Santana, I do think you stunt the process some though. This is assuming they're able to bring in near ready prospect type pitcher in return. I feel that maximizes the potential if this team at the right time. This would also negate some of the need to bring up aaaa types en masse.

That second point may be true, but it is a huge risk (and terrible pr) to try and pull off shipping out your most effective starter while returing a pitcher (and perhals other pieces) that will be ready to contribute as part of a window that may be opening even wider next year.

[wsnydes]

That second point may be true, but it is a huge risk (and terrible pr) to try and pull off shipping out your most effective starter while returing a pitcher (and perhals other pieces) that will be ready to contribute as part of a window that may be opening even wider next year.

It's also a huge risk relying on a 34 year old pitcher to continue to put up the numbers that he has. Not only for the whole of this season, but also for the whole of next season. For someone that looks at things that way, it's not terrible PR at all. It makes sense given the age of the core of the team.

[yarnivek1972]

These promotions of journeymen vets typically draw an emotion somewhere between boredom and frustration.

 

Honestly though, with this one, my curiosity is more than piqued. I'm game for seeing if we've caught lightening in a bottle here. He's putting up some monster numbers, maybe something Turley did click for him.

Fixed

[Otto von Ballpark]

But why did they sign Heston? Bullpen?

Heston has an option, so probably AAA (taking Wheeler's place?).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fearless prediction: Nik Turley pitches good enough to avoid being optioned and get another start. He becomes a poor man's Rich Hill with that curve ball. Averages 5.2 innings per start with ERA under 3.50, helping to sustain the Twins unlikely quest for AL Central championship (with a record worse than both wild card teams).

Love the "poor man's Rich Hill" description, and I love this move.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, not a lot to complain about here.  None of the AAA starting pitchers have really impressed.  Turley has been a bit of hit and miss himself this year, but I think there's something to be said for giving him a shot given how well he performs.  It's likely nothing, but if he can be a competent starter (or even show something to indicate he can be a competent reliever), that goes a long way to helping this team.

[crapforks]

 

It's MLB ready talent. The prospects are at AA. Gonsalves is 4 starts in after missing two months. Fernando Romero has huge talent, but he's not ready. Felix Jorge probably needs AAA time.

Turley isn't old, throws 91-94, good breaking pitches... he's been effectively wild in the minors, and deserves the opportunity. Im excited for him, and i hope he does well.

729:335 K:B MiLB career ratio. A little better than 2:1. Any reliable reports on which breaking balls and how hard he throws them? 

[jorgenswest]

729:335 K:B MiLB career ratio. A little better than 2:1. Any reliable reports on which breaking balls and how hard he throws them?

 

Somewhere on the first page I put a link to the fringe five article. He has appeared at least three times each with different video clips.

[crapforks]

 

Somewhere on the first page I put a link to the fringe five article. He has appeared at least three times each with different video clips.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-91/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-90/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-88/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-85/

 

I suppose that's as good as any. Reposting for easier reference. Scary looking curve. Somehow looks taller than 6'6". 

[old nurse]

Turley is not quite a journeyman. Journeyman seems like he is filler. What he has is potential. A lefty who can throw in the low 90 is going to keep getting chances while somebody tries to figure out what is going wrong.He is throwing a greater percentage of his pitches for strikes.  A little better control means less walks. Less walks hopefully means there were less 3 ball counts  and ended up throwing a little easier pitches to hit.  Find out on Sunday.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Turley is not quite a journeyman. Journeyman seems like he is filler. What he has is potential. A lefty who can throw in the low 90 is going to keep getting chances while somebody tries to figure out what is going wrong.He is throwing a greater percentage of his pitches for strikes.  A little better control means less walks. Less walks hopefully means there were less 3 ball counts  and ended up throwing a little easier pitches to hit.  Find out on Sunday.

 

Journeyman means that he's played all over. After a long start to his career in the Yankees organization, including 1+ years on the 40 man roster, Turley has been in the Giants and Red Sox organizations. He spent 2016 in Somerset in the independent Atlantic League. Now he's with the Twins. He's also played winter ball, so I'm good with "journeyman." 

 

Now, that doesn't mean he doesn't have potential. It's possible that something clicked in the indy leagues (like they did for Boshers or Kintzler) and now he'll be solid in MLB... 

[TheGiantTeapot]

 

If you have a million Terry Ryans working a million phones to a million different indy leagues, eventually he'll write Shakespeare. Or something. What are we talking about again?

Like. Like. Like. Like. Like. Like.Like. Like. Like.Like. Like. Like.Like. Like. Like.

[crapforks]

 

Journeyman means that he's played all over. After a long start to his career in the Yankees organization, including 1+ years on the 40 man roster, Turley has been in the Giants and Red Sox organizations. He spent 2016 in Somerset in the independent Atlantic League. Now he's with the Twins. He's also played winter ball, so I'm good with "journeyman." 

 

Now, that doesn't mean he doesn't have potential. It's possible that something clicked in the indy leagues (like they did for Boshers or Kintzler) and now he'll be solid in MLB... 

Schrodinger's prospect

[Blake]

This has been mentioned before, but it really does seem like the new FO is cycling through the pitchers, trying to find out what they have and are quick to DFA, which clears space on the 40 man.

 

There's been a lot written about how the 40 man has been mismanaged the last few years. With pitching being in short supply, the FO cannot afford to get rid of people without at least giving them a shot to see if there's anything that might work out. 

 

It is going to be brutal to watch, because of the human factor but business is business and the business of the FO is trying to straighten out the mess that is the Twins farm system so it produces players the MLB club needs. Along with the FO trying to find out what holes they are going to have to fill in the off-season.

 

Then, the FO also has to contend with a contending team. A team that is defying all reasonable expectations.

 

So, the FO has to try and set the current team up to win, without really have any resources they're sure of, clean up the 40 man and set the farm system up for success.

 

Anyone else want the job? I think I'd rather clean out the Augean stables.

[DocBauer]

Journeyman means that he's played all over. After a long start to his career in the Yankees organization, including 1+ years on the 40 man roster, Turley has been in the Giants and Red Sox organizations. He spent 2016 in Somerset in the independent Atlantic League. Now he's with the Twins. He's also played winter ball, so I'm good with "journeyman." 

 

Now, that doesn't mean he doesn't have potential. It's possible that something clicked in the indy leagues (like they did for Boshers or Kintzler) and now he'll be solid in MLB...

 

Was also the Yankees milb pitcher of the Year in 2012, FWIW. I know that's been a few years, but I think it speaks to some of his potential. From what I gather, he had some arm soreness and was released in 2014 and began bouncing around a bit before his independent league stint last season. I don't know, I'm not expecting greatness, but guys do get healthy and find themselves later in their career sometimes.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

Anyone else want the job? I think I'd rather clean out the Augean stables.

 

That's exactly what they are doing at the MLB and AAA level, and more will happen during the off-season.

[ThejacKmp]

 

This isn't crazy at all. They could patch this thing together all year. Still a lot of talent in the lineup that could emerge.

 

Yeah, and the crazy thing is that they haven't even been super lucky. Santiago has overall been the pitcher you'd expect - he was hot early but has sucked of late and that feels pretty even. Santana has been better than expected, Berrios has pitched as his minor league track record would make you think he might. Gibson has been way crapper than expected and Mejia has been about what you'd expect. I'd say that Hughes has been worse than expected but I'm not sure any of us expected him to pitch at all. he ate innings?
 

Overall, this Twins staff seems about as expected overall. Not a strength but not an anchor.

[Rosterman]

But if you are looking for a spot start (again, why not Heston), you maybe take a chance with Slegers, Hurllbut or even Gonsalves or Eades or someone who is a prospect...give them a taste of the major leagues, then they return to the minors to work it out so they can stay. 

 

The thing with the Turley or Wheelers or others of that ilk (we can include WImmers now), that if they are removed from the 40-man, they can be grabbed by someone else. But then, again, that frees up space for a prospect.

 

Tough call. I still harp that the Twins should be looking at players that will help them for years to come at any opportunity they can find THIS season, rather than journeymen.

 

But the front office seems to know what they are doing, Molitor seems to be managing in a way unique in baseball, and the Twins are still in first place!

[jorgenswest]

 Tough call. I still harp that the Twins should be looking at players that will help them for years to come at any opportunity they can find THIS season, rather than journeymen.

 

I guess I need to be convinced that...

 

1) getting this one start is good for the development of the prospect

2) the organization can actually learn something significant about the prospect in this small snapshot

3) it gives the Twins the best chance to win tomorrow's game.

 

It doesn't need to be all three but if it isn't number 3 it had better be the other 2.

[Blake]

 

I guess I need to be convinced that...

1) getting this one start is good for the development of the prospect
2) the organization can actually learn something significant about the prospect in this small snapshot
3) it gives the Twins the best chance to win tomorrow's game.

It doesn't need to be all three but if it isn't number 3 it had better be the other 2.

I don't think the move is about winning tomorrow, though, obviously, everyone would like to see a W. It's also about finding out if Turley can help over the long haul. 

 

It is still astounds me that the Twins are in contention using a starting rotation and bullpen that have been pieced together.

 

If Turley can give the Twins a chance to win every time he takes the ball, that's one less worry for Molitor and the FO.