Outside Starting Pitching Help Primer

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wonder if drafting Kyle Wright and sticking him in AA to start might be an option here too... Lots think he wouldn't need much time. 

[Thrylos]

 

I wonder if drafting Kyle Wright and sticking him in AA to start might be an option here too... Lots think he wouldn't need much time. 

 

I think that both Wright and McKay can go to AA to start, but they will not be ready to help the team this season.  They will be starting to learn the pro game (and it is different than the college game)

 

I think that external help is needed to keep competing this season, and the Twins will have to make a choice very soon on whether they want to compete or not.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ian Kennedy.

Signed through 2020. Only 32 years old, still a really nice starter. KC frees up money needed to retain one of their other FAs. Twins take on entire salary, lowering the prospect return needed.

Make it so.

Like Cueto, Ian Kennedy also has an opt-out after this season.

 

Not sure quite how that plays out yet.  Seems like the Royals are interested in hanging on as long as possible in 2017, so I'm guessing Kennedy wouldn't be dealt until the deadline.  If he's performing well, he'll probably be a rental, assuming he opts out?

 

And even if he doesn't look likely to opt out, he might still be a better value at 3/49 than most of their pending FAs, so I'm not sure how willing the Royals would be to make that exchange.  They are in a tricky spot.

[drjim]

 

There have been rumors (MLB Network) that the Rays will be listening to offers for Chis Archer.  Sure bet top of the rotation pitcher, 4 years control + this season (up to his age 33 season)  in excellent terms (2017: $4.8M, 2018: $6.2M, 2019: $7.5M, 2020 Team Option: $9M ($1.8M buyout) 2021 Team Option: $11M)

 

I'd blow the farm for him and throw in Gordon, Gonzalves, Stewart, and Blakenhorne their way, none of who are sure things (and in Gordon's case there are better alternatives both ahead and behind him) and will try to see if they will throw a pen arm like Tommy Hunter (calf strain returning to action in a couple weeks.)

 

Or go after Jake Odorizzi (first year of arbitration - 2 years left beyond 2017) with a smaller package

 

Sick and tired of the Twins going after bandaids and fillgaps.  Championship teams are building for the future and with a 4 season or so window with the current young core, they should look for supplementing with players who fit that core time frame, like Archer...

 

For Archer you should at least add Duensing.

 

I understand why people are mad at the Twins for not making trades if they think that is even close.

[Thrylos]

 

For Archer you should at least add Duensing.

 

I understand why people are mad at the Twins for not making trades if they think that is even close.

 

Ok.  What would be close to getting Archer then, as far as prospects not named Burdi, Jay and Romero and any MLB players not named Santana, Berrios, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco go? 

 

They should try to do that.

[drjim]

 

Ok.  What would be close to getting Archer then, as far as prospects not named Burdi, Jay and Romero and any MLB players not named Santana, Berrios, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco go? 

 

They should try to do that.

 

Blackmail and/or kidnapping?

 

But on a serious question, why would you not include Burdi, Jay or Romero? I would move those three in a heartbeat for Archer, not that it would make a difference anyways. A high volume of 100-150ish prospects don't get top of the rotation starters.

[Thrylos]

 

Blackmail and/or kidnapping?

 

But on a serious question, why would you not include Burdi, Jay or Romero? I would move those three in a heartbeat for Archer, not that it would make a difference anyways

 

Because I think that Burdi and Jay will be able to help the pen this season (and the pen needs help this season) and Romero has the potential to be an Archer-type pitcher

[Vanimal46]

 

Because I think that Burdi and Jay will be able to help the pen this season (and the pen needs help this season) and Romero has the potential to be an Archer-type pitcher

 

Potential being the key word here. I'd take 4 years of Archer over 6 years of "potential to be" Archer. 

[drjim]

 

Because I think that Burdi and Jay will be able to help the pen this season (and the pen needs help this season) and Romero has the potential to be an Archer-type pitcher

 

Seems a little optimistic.

 

But for Archer, if he was made available, the Cubs, for example, would start a package with one (or two) of Schwarber/Happ/Baez, and then probably add more. A platter of prospect depth would be laughable. Would have to start with Kepler or Polanco, and still not clear they could put enough together.

[drjim]

 

Potential being the key word here. I'd take 4 years of Archer over 6 years of "potential to be" Archer. 

 

Of course you would, as would the Rays.

[Loosey]

If the Twins are serious.  I would let this team develop this year as they are.  No big additions, no major trades for prospects unless they are just overwhelmed.  Then in the off-season go spend the money on one of these starting pitchers.  In reality if they traded for one this year, they would lose prospects and still probably not make the World Series.  And to top it off the pitcher would leave via Free Agency in the offseason.  

 

Just outspend in cash for once and go for it that way.  

[drjim]

 

If the Twins are serious.  I would let this team develop this year as they are.  No big additions, no major trades for prospects unless they are just overwhelmed.  Then in the off-season go spend the money on one of these starting pitchers.  In reality if they traded for one this year, they would lose prospects and still probably not make the World Series.  And to top it off the pitcher would leave via Free Agency in the offseason.  

 

Just outspend in cash for once and go for it that way.  

 

This is the likely scenario. But it's fun to dream.

[Willihammer]

After much thought I have discovered how Derek Falvey could land Chris Archer AND Gerritt Cole for literally *nothing.* It's a little complicated so I'll break it down as cleanly as I can.

 

Step 1: Call Rick Hahn. Tell him you’re a big fan of “chitown.” Ask about David Robertson and Jose Quintana. After Kahn says no to intra-divisional trading, tell him you're prepared to offer newly acquired Rays prospects Jose De Leon, Jesus Sanchez, and Chi Wei Hu. In addition you’re prepared to offer newly acquired top prospect Victor Robles, formerly of the Nationals. Wait 6.1 seconds for the Cubs to come out of a commercial break then put him on hold.

 

Step 2: Call Pirates GM Neal Huntington. Tell him the Twins are willing to trade newly acquired OF Mike Conforto for Gerritt Cole plus Tony Watson. Wait 90 seconds for the Penguins to come out of commercial break then put him on hold.

 

Step 3: Call Washington GM Mike Rizzo. Ask him if he got any mosquito bites after Trump drained the swamp, then offer David Robertson in exchange for Victor Robles and Erick Fedde. Wait 19 seconds for the Orioles to come out of commercial break then tell him to hold.

 

Step 4. Call Brian Cashman. Tell him New York is the best city in New England. Tell him you’re prepared to offer newly acquired starter Jose Quintana for Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, and Chance Adams plus $10m cash. Hold.

 

Step 5. Call Sandy Alderson. Tell him you just swung a deal with the Yankees, you stole their to prospect. Now he’s listening. You offer them Frazier for Conforto straight up. As Seinfeld returns from break you place him on hold.

 

Step 6: Call Erik Neander. Tell him you always thought reports of his people’s demise 1.3 million years ago were greatly exaggerated. Offer $10m cash plus newly acquired Yankees prospects Sheffield and Adams plus Tony Watson in exchange for Chris Archer, JDL Jesus Sanchez and Chi Wei Hu. As the Yankees return from break you put him on hold.

 

Step 7: Put Hahn back on the line. Tell him you spilled Land O Lakes milk all over yourself and had to clean up. Complete the trade: Robertson + Quintana for JDL, Sanchez, Hu, and Robles.

 

Step 8: Put Huntington back on the line. Tell him your son was arrested. Complete the trade Cole + Watkins for Conforto.

 

Step 9: Put Rizzo back on the line. Tell him your wife called and just had a baby. Complete the trade: Robles + Fedde for Robertson + Watkins.

 

Step 10: Put Cashman back on the line. Tell him the microwave started on fire and your Stauffer’s was in there. Complete the trade Frazier + Sheffield + Adams + $10m cash for Quintana + Robertson.

 

Step 11: Alderson: Tell him Thad threw a Febreeze scent bomb into your office and you had to open a window. Complete the trade Conforto for Frazier.

 

Step 12: Put Neander back on the line: Tell him TC Bear had a wardrobe emergency. Complete the trade Archer + JDL + Sanchez + Hu for $10m + Sheffield + Adams + Watson.

 

Aaaand presto. Archer and Cole are now Twins!

[ashbury]

Step 13. Profit!

[drew_7726]

 

Cueto is owed about 85m over the next four years - after his one. Seems like if we trade for him, it might hamper our ability to sign Machado as a free agent.

I doubt we would even be able to sign him we have Sano at third.

[Shaitan]

For a #4-5, I think the best option is to unload Gibson for another "change of scenery" pitcher. Little upside, but it could work in the same way that Nolasco for Santiago has. If it were later in the season, I'd be more open to actually giving something up.

 

[USAFChief]

Like Cueto, Ian Kennedy also has an opt-out after this season.

 

Not sure quite how that plays out yet.  Seems like the Royals are interested in hanging on as long as possible in 2017, so I'm guessing Kennedy wouldn't be dealt until the deadline.  If he's performing well, he'll probably be a rental, assuming he opts out?

 

And even if he doesn't look likely to opt out, he might still be a better value at 3/49 than most of their pending FAs, so I'm not sure how willing the Royals would be to make that exchange.  They are in a tricky spot.

You are correct, I forgot about his opt out. He gets a $6m bonus if he opts out, too, so he be giving up 3/$43.

 

Maybe that means we get him for a lesser package.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You are correct, I forgot about his opt out. He gets a $6m bonus if he opts out, too, so he be giving up 3/$43.

Maybe that means we get him for a lesser package.

 

Certain Cueto opts out, unless hurt. So, he's either a rental, or injured. High risk for sure.

[USAFChief]

Certain Cueto opts out, unless hurt. So, he's either a rental, or injured. High risk for sure.

Right, but we were talking about Kennedy.

[twins_89]

The Twins starting Pitching is way too thin to hope that adding a rental starter is going to be enough. So far this year Santana has been incredible, Berrios looks very good, and beyond that it's fairly barren. Mejia did have a decent outing last time out and that is promising, unfortunately Santiago has been terrible in May, Gibson is completely broken, and Hughes is cooked. I'd question if trading young assets for a rental is a good idea when the rest of the rotation is so fragile (two very inexperience pitchers, Santiago who seems to have long stretches of poor pitching, and Gibson/Hughes who look a long way from being productive).

[DocBauer]

I absolutely love This team! (Most parts anyway). They are, generally, productive scoring runs, and most of the young guys are still learning and growing and haven't even hit top form yet. They defense is good to sometimes excellent. Bunting and situation ball is better, (compared to how disastrous it was previously). They seem to believe in themselves, enjoy playing together, and are learning to win together.

 

Is this a finished product? Absolutely not! But we are seeing the fruits of painful labor, (mostly waiting), coming to fruition. The bullpen needs work, but has been stable for the most part. (Thus far). And the rotation, frankly, has been better, and better than expected. (Though it obviously still needs at least one more arm to come through).

 

I hope this team continues to grow and develop and win. And I think they can. But it is still a team built mostly on youth with a couple veterans and a couple guys hanging on. It is STILL in rebuild mode, IMO. I completely understand the sentiment of improving a team and "going for it" when you are winning. And I can't, and won't, object to a move made for a starting pitcher. But I truly think this team's window begins next season via development, guys still on their way up soon who aren't there YET, and maybe a quality FA or two to really set the roster.

 

We should honestly see a couple young bullpen arms up mid-season or so, if not before. This may allow a move of Duffey to the 5th rotation spot if necessary. For now, I'd roll with Santana, Berrios, Santiago and Mejia and hope for Gibson, or a rehabed Hughes, or experiement with Haley, Turley, Wheeler, Slegers. Is it ideal? No. But especially with a new FO in place, and only in tbe early stages of their tenure, I'm just really loathe to trade much of anyone...barring a steal scenario...until we can at least get this one, first, full season played.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins starting Pitching is way too thin to hope that adding a rental starter is going to be enough. So far this year Santana has been incredible, Berrios looks very good, and beyond that it's fairly barren. Mejia did have a decent outing last time out and that is promising, unfortunately Santiago has been terrible in May, Gibson is completely broken, and Hughes is cooked. I'd question if trading young assets for a rental is a good idea when the rest of the rotation is so fragile (two very inexperience pitchers, Santiago who seems to have long stretches of poor pitching, and Gibson/Hughes who look a long way from being productive).

Santiago hasn't been terrible in May, he had one truly horrific start in May. His starts this month:

 

6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO

6.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 6 SO

2.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 SO

5.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO

 

He's been pretty typical Hector Santiago outside of that single start. He walks too many guys, strikes out too few, but manages to get through the lineup enough times to put together an acceptable start.

 

To me, the question marks in the rotation are Berrios (but less so with each start) and Mejia (the true wildcard here). If Berrios holds steady as a #3 and Mejia pitches like a #4, the Twins are probably in okay shape unless somebody gets injured.

 

But I have very little faith in Mejia, at least in 2017.

[FlauerPauer]

I'd prefer to not trade for an NL pitcher to be honest.  How many NL pitchers have had immediate success coming to the AL.  Cueto got rocked when he moved midseason a little while back...

 

I'd prefer to get a guy who has had success in the AL this year.   Ian Kennedy sounds like an interesting name.  Maybe Cobb.  Estrada will cost at least Gordon and a pitcher - pass on that; however, if the Twins can trade for a guy who is locked up like Hamels was when the Rangers traded for him, I'd give up the prospects needed.  

 

I'd rather see moves to improve the bullpen... whether that is internal or outside the organization, does not matter to me.

 

#FreeBurdi

[markos]

 

Santiago hasn't been terrible in May, he had one truly horrific start in May. His starts this month:

 

6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO

6.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 6 SO

2.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 SO

5.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO

 

He's been pretty typical Hector Santiago outside of that single start. He walks too many guys, strikes out too few, but manages to get through the lineup enough times to put together an acceptable start.

Santiago (and the Twins in general) has benefitted from fairly weak opponents so far. There was an article posted on Fangraphs yesterday that showed that the Twins have had the second-worst opponent offense so far. He has been acceptable so far, but I'm not sure how well that projects forward. Facing the Rays and Astros back-to-back will be a good test.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Santiago (and the Twins in general) has benefitted from fairly weak opponents so far. There was an article posted on Fangraphs yesterday that showed that the Twins have had the second-worst opponent offense so far. He has been acceptable so far, but I'm not sure how well that projects forward. Facing the Rays and Astros back-to-back will be a good test.

It's possible but Santiago has pitched at an acceptable enough level long enough that I'm not really worried about his performance if healthy.

[markos]

 

It's possible but Santiago has pitched at an acceptable enough level long enough that I'm not really worried about his performance if healthy.

I see. I thought we were talking about "acceptable" as in "acceptable #3 starter for a playoff contending team." As an arm for the back of the rotation, I agree that he is perfectly fine. But I think he is more likely to be a below-average starter going forward (as he has been 2 of the last 3 seasons by ERA+) rather than the above-average starter he has though 9 starts. So I'd really like to see the Twins bring in someone better than Santiago, rather than just back-filling behind him.

[AWOLNATION_11]

I think I'd try to get some use out of having Haley on the roster.  If they are willing to run Gibson and his 8+ ERA out there why not Haley and his 6+ ERA?   Granted he's probably not stretched out, but as long as Gibson is considered a part of the rotation why not start Haley in those games and have Gibson ready to come in for multiple innings once Haley hits a pitch count or ineffectiveness?   Probably a terrible idea, but just a thought. 

[Respy]

The Twins went after Ian Kennedy previously, I think around the time they signed Santana and Hughes.  He's a decent candidate.  Beyond that, I don't think we are willing to afford the prospect return required for any of those other pitchers.  I think if we remain in contention, we're much more likely to look for a late-inning right-handed bullpen arm.

[gocgo]

 

If the Twins are serious.  I would let this team develop this year as they are.  No big additions, no major trades for prospects unless they are just overwhelmed.  Then in the off-season go spend the money on one of these starting pitchers.  In reality if they traded for one this year, they would lose prospects and still probably not make the World Series.  And to top it off the pitcher would leave via Free Agency in the offseason.  

 

Just outspend in cash for once and go for it that way.  

Totally agree.  In the past, the Twins were not an attractive option for top free agent pitchers and we had to overpay.  What pitcher doesn't want to pitch with that outfield defense behind him for the next few years?

[USAFChief]

If SF continues to tank, Samardzia (sp) might be a target.