Outside Starting Pitching Help Primer

[DaveW]

I can't be the only one very uncomfortable with our current back end of the rotation (Specifically the #5 spot)

Santana is continuing his "ace" like ways for the Twins.
Berrios might already be a stud.
Santiago is what he is. A #4 type, but is ok as a #3

Mejia solid last start, but still isn't a sure thing. But as of now, perfectly fine tossing him out every fifth day.
Tespech/Gibson etc: "This is our concern dude"

Baring Duffey moving to the rotation, I think it's of the utmost importance the Twins go out and acquire a solid veteran starting pitcher. Hughes is on the DL, and frankly probably can't be assumed that he will come back effective or healthy.

Here is a list of targets I think the Twins should go for, more than likely for most the cost wouldn't be sky high and wouldn't derail any of the "rebuilding" for the future (i.e. guys like Gordon, etc wouldn't be traded)

All of the below are on teams that are already "out of it" or likely will fall out soon. All are also free agents, or highly likely to be free agents after the year:



-Marco Estrada: 3.30 ERA 10 k/9. Has been consistent over the past few years. Estrada/Berrios/Santana would become a real nice front of the rotation. The downside is: other than Darvish, one could make the argument that Estrada will be the top name on the market. Cost would be high, but could be worth it, of course Estrada likely won't be traded until very late July.
 

-Trevor Cahill: 3.27 ERA- Talented pitcher, unfortunately he can't stay healthy. Was just put on the DL with shoulder issues, probably out for a month or two. Good news is, his cost could be super low for a team looking to roll the dice. The Twins should aim higher.

-Alex Cobb: This assumes the Rays fall out of it. The AL East is a great division, so chances are they will. 3.67 ERA, 3.46 ERA. Has had past injury issues, but is looking healthy thus far this year. He doesn't strike out a ton of guys, but is very effective. Would slot in as the #3/#4 option for this club, and a solid #4 type overall. Cost likely wouldn't be nearly as high as some others, but should give you good innings if he stays healthy.

-Johnny Cueto-Interesting case as he can opt out of his 4 year 82 million after this year which he most likely will, if not, I wouldn't mind the Twins being on the hook for that! Probably no shortage of takers for Cueto, who along with Yu and Estrada will be at the top of teams lists. If the Twins are in it and looking like a real contender for the pennant, Cueto would be a very nice acquisition, and slots in as a front of the rotation guy. 


-Jeremy Hellickson- The former ROY has never lived up to his early on lofty expectations, but he has developed into a solid back end guy. His k/9 has taken a nose dive this year,but the results still have been solid. Cost wouldn't be that much.

-Ian Kennedy- Intradivision target, but could make sense.

-Tyson Ross (DL)

-Vargas (see Kennedy)
 

Cueto, Estrada and Cobb would probably be my top targets. I'd like to see the Twins lock in on one of those three, in addition to strengthening the rotation, any of those three would instantly slot in in our top 3. If the Twins keep it up and make the playoffs, I think it's important that you have a top three in the rotation that you can count on.

Santana, Berrios, Hellickson/Cueto/Estrada: Nobody will mistake that for the 90's braves, but that is a top 3 that can keep you in games, and in the case of Santana and Berrios: is capable of throwing an absolute gem.

Thoughts on what it would take to get the above?
Any targets I am missing?
 

[gunnarthor]

I think it's unlikely that the new FO will make a big trade in-season. I think they are more likely to sit and see - possibly extend Santiago. They weren't in on Fister, who wouldn't have cost us a prospect.

 

[HitInAPinch]

"I can't be the only one very uncomfortable with our current back end of the rotation (Specifically the #5 spot)".

 

You're right, you're not  

 

I have to wonder if the Twins owner or management are really willing to make such moves.  

 

Yes, Jim Pohlad made a big jump by hiring a search firm to look for new management with younger, more innovative ideas.  Innovative, as in, what the rest of the league had already advanced to.  And, I can't say this as factual, Falvey and Levine seem to have a knack with the pitchers. And the offense and defense are on an upward trend.   

 

If I'm a betting man, the Twins would not do anything this year.  If they are in contention after the All Star Break, maybe.  Next off-season:  at the very least, they should be kicking some tires.  

IMHO:  the Twins are no longer in a 'rebuild mode'. 

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

For what it's worth:  I really like Duffey where he is right now.  If they can stretch him out a little during the season, work in on pitch, starter?  Why the **** not? 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...

 

IMHO:  the Twins are no longer in a 'rebuild mode'. 

 

We have to shore up the pitching.

 

The offense and the defense are ready to well support a strong pitching staff.

[Vanimal46]

Cueto would be a nice buy-low opportunity this year. Gotta hope that the Rockies are for real and the Giants continue to disappoint. His ERA and FIP are both at career highs at the moment, but he's still eating a lot of innings and missing a lot of bats. 

[DaveW]

Cueto as mentioned in other thread is interesting. Is there a chance that he would not opt out of his contract?

 

I doubt he could get 6 years on the open market, and a bunch of teams may balk at 5.

[DaveW]

 

 

We have to shore up the pitching.

 

The offense and the defense are ready to well support a strong pitching staff.

I still think they could use another bat potentially.

 

LF/CF/DH/1B could be a concern offensively potentially. I think mauer will be fine, but have questions about Grossman, Vargas, Rosario and Buxton offensively.

 

Maybe a Jay Bruce type?

[drjim]

Cueto won't be cheap, something like Mejia and Gonsalves for a rental.

[Willihammer]

Not super excited about giving up players for a rental.

[drjim]

 

Not super excited about giving up players for a rental.

 

I'm not either, especially not Gordon, Gonsalves, Burdi, or Romero.

[DaveW]

Not super excited about giving up players for a rental.

At some point if you ever want to win a title you gotta do it

 

Do you think the Cubs regret giving up a ton for Chapman?

 

Most of the guys listed above wouldn't cost any of the elite prospects in the Twins system.

[Willihammer]

What would be a fair price for Edinson Volquez?

[USAFChief]

Ian Kennedy.

 

Signed through 2020. Only 32 years old, still a really nice starter. KC frees up money needed to retain one of their other FAs. Twins take on entire salary, lowering the prospect return needed.

 

Make it so.

[DaveW]

What would be a fair price for Edinson Volquez?

Wouldn't cost much at all, like maybe just a PTNBL

 

Volquez isnt very good, is older and is owed $13 mil next year. I wouldn't want to commit to him for next year.

[DaveW]

Ian Kennedy.

 

Signed through 2020. Only 32 years old, still a really nice starter. KC frees up money needed to retain one of their other FAs. Twins take on entire salary, lowering the prospect return needed.

 

Make it so.

I wanted them to get him previously, I'd be for it.

[gunnarthor]

Considering how this board has reacted to trading off Ramos and Hu in former win-now trades on teams that were actually supposed to be in contention, I'm not sure we'd be all that tolerant of any trade.

[Tibs]

At this point in the season, I'm only in favor of adding starting pitching help if it is cheap. That likely means going after someone who just happens to be having a good season or buying low on someone and hoping for the best. I don't think one pitcher, unless it is a high level pitcher, is going to fix our starting staff for this season. Until we bring up some bullpen prospects, I have my doubts about the bullpen as a whole as well.

 

I don't want the Twins to pull a Royals. The Royals were good for 2-3 years, but now have next to nothing in their farm system and are going to be losing their key players within the next year or two. The Royals very well could go back to being the bottom of the division for the next 5+ years. Was winning a World Series worth it? I'd have to think most Royals fans would say yes. My concern with trading away prospects this year is doing the same thing as the Royals without the World Series appearances.

[drivlikejehu]

What would be a fair price for Edinson Volquez?

Volquez is looking pretty bad - barring a hot streak he's a salary dump, no prospects needed.

 

The better question there is why the Twins would want him.

[drjim]

 

Considering how this board has reacted to trading off Ramos and Hu in former win-now trades on teams that were actually supposed to be in contention, I'm not sure we'd be all that tolerant of any trade.

 

Everything is better when a trade is theoretical rather than nitpicking on what the actual cost would be.

 

Hu is a great example. He's a borderline backend arm and people think it was the worst trade ever. But that's the cost of underwhelming relief help.

[Vanimal46]

 

Volquez is looking pretty bad - barring a hot streak he's a salary dump, no prospects needed.

The better question there is why the Twins would want him.

 

Correct... They can aim higher than this when targeting a SP to trade for. 

[wsnydes]

 

At some point if you ever want to win a title you gotta do it

Do you think the Cubs regret giving up a ton for Chapman?

Most of the guys listed above wouldn't cost any of the elite prospects in the Twins system.

I agree, but this team isn't at that point yet and they aren't even close to where the Cubs were when they got Chapman.  They need to shore up the pitching for sure, but selling the farm for it this year would be foolhardy in my opinion.

[markos]

I don't think Estrada or Cueto will be in a Twins uniform without at least one of Gordon/Gonsalves/Romero being involved in the trade. Estrada might even require two of them. That's not a move I'd support.

 

Personally, I think this is a good year for the Twins to be involved in trades for longer-term pitching asset. Basically, it would be nice if someone became available like Cole Hamels a couples years back. That might end up being Chris Archer or Gerrit Cole. I don't know if the Twins have the prospect capital to get a pitcher like that, but that's the type of starter they should be targeting. I just don't think that a back-of-the-rotation arm moves the needle enough to justify the cost.

[Blackjack]

I'm enjoying the Twins run, its definitely more fun to listen to a winning team but I'm not going to delude myself into thinking that they are going to keep it up and that one more starting pitcher will put them over the hump. They're thin on starting pitchers already, one more injury and they'll be toast.

 

Keep the prospects, bring up some of the AA/AAA starters and relievers, let the young core of Kepler, Sano, Polanco, etc. get more experience, evaluate and see what you have, make a big move this winter.

[Oxtung]

I don't think Estrada or Cueto will be in a Twins uniform without at least one of Gordon/Gonsalves/Romero being involved in the trade. Estrada might even require two of them. That's not a move I'd support.

 

Personally, I think this is a good year for the Twins to be involved in trades for longer-term pitching asset. Basically, it would be nice if someone became available like Cole Hamels a couples years back. That might end up being Chris Archer or Gerrit Cole. I don't know if the Twins have the prospect capital to get a pitcher like that, but that's the type of starter they should be targeting. I just don't think that a back-of-the-rotation arm moves the needle enough to justify the cost.

The Rangers gave up 2 top 100 position players including a catcher and a top 100 pitching prospect. In addition they gave up another pitcher who was a midrotation ready 24 year old. An equivalent Twins package would be like Kepler, Gordon, Mejia and one of Gonsalves or Romero. This isn't a perfect comparison because Kepler is more proven than anyone the Phillies got back but the Twins don't really have anyone else comparable.

 

To me that is too steep a price to pay when the Twins aren't really sure what they have in themselves yet.

[gunnarthor]

Cueto is owed about 85m over the next four years - after his one. Seems like if we trade for him, it might hamper our ability to sign Machado as a free agent.

[jokin]

 

Ian Kennedy.

Signed through 2020. Only 32 years old, still a really nice starter. KC frees up money needed to retain one of their other FAs. Twins take on entire salary, lowering the prospect return needed.

Make it so.

 

This. (And find a way to throw in Jason Vargas).

[DaveW]

Cueto is owed about 85m over the next four years - after his one. Seems like if we trade for him, it might hamper our ability to sign Machado as a free agent.

He has an opt out clause at the end of this season.

 

More than likely he will do that (if he doesn't I would be happy if he stuck around for 4 years)

[Thrylos]

There have been rumors (MLB Network) that the Rays will be listening to offers for Chis Archer.  Sure bet top of the rotation pitcher, 4 years control + this season (up to his age 33 season)  in excellent terms (2017: $4.8M, 2018: $6.2M, 2019: $7.5M, 2020 Team Option: $9M ($1.8M buyout) 2021 Team Option: $11M)

 

I'd blow the farm for him and throw in Gordon, Gonzalves, Stewart, and Blakenhorne their way, none of who are sure things (and in Gordon's case there are better alternatives both ahead and behind him) and will try to see if they will throw a pen arm like Tommy Hunter (calf strain returning to action in a couple weeks.)

 

Or go after Jake Odorizzi (first year of arbitration - 2 years left beyond 2017) with a smaller package

 

Sick and tired of the Twins going after bandaids and fillgaps.  Championship teams are building for the future and with a 4 season or so window with the current young core, they should look for supplementing with players who fit that core time frame, like Archer...

[Thrylos]

Other potential target could be Ivan Nova (30 yo, 2 years of control 2017: $7M, 2018: $8.5M, 2019: $8.5M) of the Pirates.  I'd start the discussion with Kyle Gibson, and let them pick one of Gordon, Gonzalves, Stewart, and Blakenhorne and if they are willing to include Starling Marté (28, 5 seasons control until his age 32 season, 2021, $5M, $7.8M, $10.3M, opt $11.5M, opt $12.5M), I'd give them all of the above and let them take their pick of either Grossman or Rosario.   Would love to see what an OF of Marte, Buxton and Kepler can do for the next few seasons (after Marte returns from his suspension of course...)

 

They got to shoot high...