Kennys Vargas

[DaveW]

 

He's part of the problem.  Yes, he's been better, but he absolutely can sit 1-2 times a week.

How is a .897 OPS in May part of the problem? And a .365 OBP since the rough start a problem?

I do agree he should sit once to twice a week, but that is more for maintenance/health to keep him fresh. Not because of productivity. 

[drivlikejehu]

The thing about Vargas is that he's actually never been a particularly good hitter, even in the minor leagues (considering his lack of defensive value).

 

He had 609 PAs in AAA with an OPS of .809. His .746 career MLB OPS is perfectly in line with that, as was his .859 AA OPS in 556 PAs. 

 

This would all be fantastic if he was a good defensive shortstop or something, but for a DH it's basically replacement level. There's no reason to think he's capable of more -- he's been the same guy for at least 3 years now.

[Willihammer]

 

IMO there are still plenty of at bats to go around even with Mauer being the everyday starter at 1st.

 

Few things:

-Defensively Mauer is one of the best in the league, when you have Polanco at SS and Sano at 3rd, both of whom are still a little "iffy" it is imperative you have Mauer and his ability to dig out the tough throws. Vargas, while not Ortiz like at 1st base, is closer (at least with my eye test) to below average defensively at 1st.

This point deserves more emphasis. Mauer has saved the infield a lot of errors. His athleticism is really helping over there. Not to mention catches like this which Vargas would have no shot at. So unless we have a day game after night game situation with Adrianza and Escobar on the left side, and a lefty on the mound, Mauer should be getting the majority of the PT there. The pitching needs him.

 

At DH, Grossman is still the best option. The dude has more walks than strikeouts. How rare is that anymore? His plate discipline is Votto-esque. Him getting on base in front of Sano has been a huge multiplier for this offense. And he's slugging decently well (14 HRs over his last 500 PAs.) He's a way better baserunner in comparison too. 

[akmanak]

Vargas is fine now for the DH spot, but it doesn't mean the Twins should stop looking to upgrade it. I wish they would have traded for Joey Gallo like I wanted them to!

I remember you saying something about that trade, I also wish they would of traded Dozier during the winter meetings.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I agree that this is the right analysis. We don't need to play Vargas to find out what he can do - we know what he can do. He is the classic "meh" player, average to slightly above average bat but no glove and no speed.  Now, he may be the best we now have for the DH position, although Grossman is out hitting him, but doesn't make him the answer. 

 

Players evolve and become more than what they were.  Being slaves to their minor league stats isn't a good idea.  He's shown enough to warrant playing time.  The minor league numbers might dampen our expectations, but they shouldn't have us ignore what he's done.  

 

He's earned the playing time his last 200 ABs.  Play him.

[Doomtints]

Vargas did a great job last night, teeing off on a wicked curveball that any other Twin would have wiffed on.

 

Keep him in the lineup.

[TheLeviathan]

 

How is a .897 OPS in May part of the problem? And a .365 OBP since the rough start a problem?

I do agree he should sit once to twice a week, but that is more for maintenance/health to keep him fresh. Not because of productivity. 

 

The problem is that he isn't sitting 1-2 times a week because he's Joe Mauer.  So whether he's been good in May, bad in December, or whatever - his playing time isn't fluctuating to match his production.  He's in hell or high water and that is part of the problem.

[drjim]

The problem is that he isn't sitting 1-2 times a week because he's Joe Mauer. So whether he's been good in May, bad in December, or whatever - his playing time isn't fluctuating to match his production. He's in hell or high water and that is part of the problem.

Other than 4 or the last 17 games.

 

Now that Vargas is up, Mauer will probably sit more, especially against LHs.

 

Vargas as about a half time DH seems about right at the moment.

[DaveW]

The problem is that he isn't sitting 1-2 times a week because he's Joe Mauer. So whether he's been good in May, bad in December, or whatever - his playing time isn't fluctuating to match his production. He's in hell or high water and that is part of the problem.

He has been sitting 1-2 times a week though.

[Riverbrian]

 

Yeah I'd rather give the everyday at bats to Vargas. Grossman, id still look into trading him for pitching help IMO

 

 

I agree with who I'd give at-bats to... but not playing a guy kills trade value and kills the player. Trading him at this point would be a giveaway and unfortunately something they may be tempted to do because if he isn't getting playing time.... might as well move on. 

 

By playing him you can demonstrate value. 

 

For clarification.. I am not advocating Vargas every day. At this moment... Sano is the only hitter I consider to be an every day start. I just don't believe Vargas is the guy to get more bench time than others at this moment. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Yeah, Vargas is a victim of the logjam at 1B/DH, and that's not even including Park yet.

 

He's getting fairly regular at bats, which is okay. It could be more, but it's not like he's riding the bench.

 

I agree that he is getting his chances and I'm reasonable enough to be Ok with some bench time but when he isn't in the starting lineup in 2 of the past 3... I get preemptively concerned because I've seen it before.  

 

I disagree that it's a logjam. You need actual logs for that.

 

Plouffe and Sano was never a log jam... Plouffe didn't perform well enough to be a log. Is Mauer a log?  In my opinion... No. Grossman isn't a log either. 

 

Mauer should play but Mauer is not clearly out performing Vargas. This ain't a log jam... it is something that can managed with a little imagination. 

[DaveW]

Basically it's a good problem to have. Nobody in the lineup is really "hitting" themselves out of a roster spot.

 

Maybe Buxton obviously, but he needs every day at bats.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Basically it's a good problem to have. Nobody in the lineup is really "hitting" themselves out of a roster spot.

Maybe Buxton obviously, but he needs every day at bats.

 

I agree and that's sort of my logic with Vargas.  Half the DH ABs (3-4x a week) and 1-2 days at 1B a week.  

[Oldgoat_MN]

It appears that many of these posts take into account that Kennys Vargas is a defensive liability. According to FanGraphs there were 45 players in MLB who played 250 innings or more at 1B in 2016. As far as defensive metrics, Kenny Vargas was the 5th rated 1B in MLB last year among those 45 players.
So far in 2017 49 players have played 50 innings or more at 1B. Mauer is rated 4th best defensively. Vargas is rated 9th best.

Now I believe that defensive metrics are an evolving measure. I don’t necessarily take this as meaning there are only 4 players in MLB better than Vargas at 1B, but using statistics it appears that Kennys is not all that bad.

Actually, it looks like he’s pretty good.

[Rhino and Compass]

I like Vargas, I like any enormous players, but even at his best, is there something that he provides that the team doesn't have, or doesn't expect to have very soon? I understand he has a good bat, but I think the Twins expect Kepler to add a little power to his repertoire, and Buxton to hit. If they want a DH, there is Park, if he figures it out, or Palka. Basically, they are treating him like a bench bat, because they don't need him to be more than that right now. Could he be? Sure, but even while he grows as a player, I'm not sure the fit is perfect. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

This i agree with. That should give him 16-24 at bats a week and we'll know if he can break out over the next 4-6 weeks. 

 

Yup, basically I'd say get him 20+ ABs a week.  Ride out the slumps and see what you have.

[drjim]

I'm pretty sure the Twins know what they have. An acceptable placeholder as a part time dh/1b/bench bat.

 

Start him when they have good matchups and to give corner guys days off. Otherwise have him available as a strong bat off the bench late in games.

[Dr. Evil]

IMO there are still plenty of at bats to go around even with Mauer being the everyday starter at 1st.

 

Few things:

-Defensively Mauer is one of the best in the league, when you have Polanco at SS and Sano at 3rd, both of whom are still a little "iffy" it is imperative you have Mauer and his ability to dig out the tough throws. Vargas, while not Ortiz like at 1st base, is closer (at least with my eye test) to below average defensively at 1st.

-As mentioned above, Mauer had a horrendous start to the season, but since then has turned it around: .797 OPS in his last 25 games and a .897 OPS in May, most importantly in his last 25 games or so he is getting on base at a .363 clip.

-I'd prefer that Vargas gets 4-5 starts per week at this stage. 1 at the "cost" of Mauer, 1-2 at the "cost" of Grossman and 1-2 at the "Cost" of Rosario or Kepler (against LHP). Very doable.

 

If the Twins fall 10 games out of the hunt, then yes, he should probably be taking some more at bats away from Mauer, but while they are in contention? nah.

Personally, even though we are currently in contention, considering where we are as a team, I would rather see what Vargas has with every day playing time.

[Dr. Evil]

Basically it's a good problem to have. Nobody in the lineup is really "hitting" themselves out of a roster spot.

Maybe Buxton obviously, but he needs every day at bats.

As does Vargas.

[ashbury]

Has anybody actually seen Vargas be a butcher defensively at 1B or is he being judged against Mauer's really good defense or are people making size assumptions? I've watched a lot of games and Vargas isn't a defensive worry in my opinion. He's Ok enough.

I second this. He's not very mobile of course, but IMO has soft hands. He could end up a decent defensive first baseman.

[yarnivek1972]

If you took the Career Stats of Vargas and the career stats of Dozier and averaged the total to 162 games. There is very little difference in output.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargake01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doziebr01.shtml

 

 

Yet Vargas gets labelled inconsistent and Dozier is labelled as crucial. This isn't a slam on Dozier... It's support of Vargas.

 

Grossman, Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Polanco... I love them all but has any of these players out produced Vargas at the plate? Ever?

 

Has anybody actually seen Vargas be a butcher defensively at 1B or is he being judged against Mauer's really good defense or are people making size assumptions? I've watched a lot of games and Vargas isn't a defensive worry in my opinion. He's Ok enough.

 

Paul Molitor has to get out of his way.

 

I remember one game maybe 10 days or so ago. In the span of 20 minutes Vargas made two plays that it perhaps would not have surprised me to see him not make. One was a catch and tag after Sano made a bare hand pick up and throw. The other I believe was a low throw from the pitcher.

 

No one expects Vargas to be Doug Mientkiewicz. Just make the plays he should make. If he's as good defensively as say Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard that will probably be good enough because he will hit enough to compensate for it.

[Shaitan]

 

I agree that he is getting his chances and I'm reasonable enough to be Ok with some bench time but when he isn't in the starting lineup in 2 of the past 3... I get preemptively concerned because I've seen it before.  

 

I disagree that it's a logjam. You need actual logs for that.

 

Plouffe and Sano was never a log jam... Plouffe didn't perform well enough to be a log. Is Mauer a log?  In my opinion... No. Grossman isn't a log either. 

 

Mauer should play but Mauer is not clearly out performing Vargas. This ain't a log jam... it is something that can managed with a little imagination. 

 

Meet tomorrow afternoon's RF: Kennys Vargas.

[Rhino and Compass]

It's interesting that the comparisons never lead to Mark Teixeira, who was the last prominent power hitting switch hitter I can think of. Obviously, Teixeira is a pipe dream offensively, but Vargas is probably better at first. 

[USAFChief]

Vargas did a great job last night, teeing off on a wicked curveball that any other Twin would have wiffed on.

 

Keep him in the lineup.

I agree, keep him in the lineup, sit Mauer if necessary.

 

But for the record, the PH HR came on a change up.

[stringer bell]

I recall Tex as being excellent at first base. I don't think Vargas will ever be a great defender, but he's certainly adequate at first. I've seen Mauer make a few plays that I don't think many, if any, current first basemen could make.

 

More on the topic of Vargas--He clogs the bases and won't get any leg hits. He can only play first base, so he really has to hit and get on base. He has to be that much better of a hitter.

[DaveW]

Yeah Tex was elite defensively.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I expected very little of Vargas defensively but he's looked okay to me.

 

I support the idea of sitting Mauer once or twice a week and think Molitor is open to that idea but the rainouts have really caused problems over the past few weeks.

[Jham]

Yeah Tex was elite defensively.

Yeah, in his prime, one of the best I've ever seen.

[Twodogs]

 

I recall Tex as being excellent at first base. I don't think Vargas will ever be a great defender, but he's certainly adequate at first. I've seen Mauer make a few plays that I don't think many, if any, current first basemen could make.

 

More on the topic of Vargas--He clogs the bases and won't get any leg hits. He can only play first base, so he really has to hit and get on base. He has to be that much better of a hitter.

That is true, he wont put any pressure on a defense with his speed, and it is probably because of all of the rainouts that I havent seen as much of him lately, but I have seen him have some really good games and at bats over the last month and I was just worried that relegating him to the bench would be wasting a chance to see if he can become a .250 hitter .300 OBP with 30 HR per year and a .750 to .800 OPS type of guy who switch hits.  That type of hitter behind Sano might give Sano a few more hitable pitches in big time situations?  If he can't, he can't.  Honestly, I could kind of see that Arcia wasn't going to workout as an everyday hitter, he was way way too undisciplined, but Vargas doesn't quite seem that way, he seems to have a little more plate discipline and hopefully can do some things for the Twins that Arcia would never let himself do because he swung for the fences soo soo bad.  Just my opinion.

[David HK]

 

This. He is going to be frustrating at times but given enough at bats the extra base hits will accumulate. Plus the added playing time may help him prove his eye at the plate.

But, but, but....  How is Molly going to put Joe in the 4-hole if Vargas is playing?