82-74

[Mike Sixel]

I'm curious to see if Duffey could be the Andrew Miller on this roster, clearly not that good, but that kind of role. That curve, I would think, could really work in short stints. 

 

Clearly, now that Jay is in the bullpen, and he has that slider, it could be him in a year or so....but for now? I'd like to see Duffey keep getting shots at the highest leverage moments.

[Vanimal46]

Agreed. It's time to shed the starter label from Duffey and let him thrive in the bullpen. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

a: not sure how we know anything about the new FO and their style yet.

b: If Chargois is dominating, and the bullpen is about average, you think they'll just cut a guy? I don't know if any of them have options other than Duffey.

c: Agreed, there could be an injury.

d: If they only replace guys thah don't have a role, and guys with a role are "meh" or better, are they going to pitch? Are they going to "demote" a veteran to a lesser role?

 

I just don't know how everyone can keep typing with such certainty:

a: that they have any idea how the new FO will operate

b: that the team can somehow be good, and the bullpen somehow is turned over

 

well clearly no one can say they know with certainty. I certainly never did, I used many maybes and probablys. 

 

That said, I don't think it's crazy to say that the new FO is going to want to look at people but isn't necessarily going to be invested in every single guy in the organization - they didn't draft or sign many of them so it will easier to cut bait. 

 

I could see a Twins team that is relatively competitive near June move a reliever or two if Chargois, Wimmers etc. appear to be ready. They clearly aren't looking at a one-year window based on the comments they've made in public. A bullpen doesn't need to implode for there to be changes, any more than Grossman needs to suck to see Park or Vargas in the majors. Guys in the minors can force their way up and there are ways to move guys into lesser roles and out of the organization.

[Bark's Lounge]

I still think Duffey could be a starter, but that is clearly unknown. I tend to agree that Duffey should be a BP guy. He does have some nasty stuff (curveball). IMO, he is probably the most talented guy in our bullpen, I do like Presley as well.

 

Maybe a year from now we will have Jay, Duffey and Chargois in the BP. Hoping for the best - that could have a lasting positive impact for the future of this club.

[Doomtints]

Duffey can finally be the dominant bullpen arm he was meant to be. I have zero worries about him.

[drjim]

 

I'm curious to see if Duffey could be the Andrew Miller on this roster, clearly not that good, but that kind of role. That curve, I would think, could really work in short stints. 

 

Clearly, now that Jay is in the bullpen, and he has that slider, it could be him in a year or so....but for now? I'd like to see Duffey keep getting shots at the highest leverage moments.

 

I don't see Duffey being the high leverage fireman that Miller is (Pressly probably has that role), but he could absolutely be a guy who comes in at the start of an inning and goes multiple innings every 2-3 days. The kind of guy analysts have been asking for for years.

[gocgo]

 

Even in my wildest fantasy I don't see us winning the division. 90 win wild card? Possible. But Cleveland could win 100 without breaking a sweat.

Totally agree...but injuries happen.  Bad luck happens.  Cancer in the clubhouse happens.  It's baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't see Duffey being the high leverage fireman that Miller is (Pressly probably has that role), but he could absolutely be a guy who comes in at the start of an inning and goes multiple innings every 2-3 days. The kind of guy analysts have been asking for for years.

 

Heh, I've been pushing this team to have only 2-3 starters for 3 years now, but no one is ready for that!

[Rosterman]

Detroit will be a tell. They have to see how strong their own division is, first. Then, you have to win (consistently) series. A couple more times thru the rotation should give us a cue on how they will be responding and how soon we need a change in a spot. The bullpen? Well, at least there are arms down on the farm.

 

I am worried about the outfield hitting...as they are all still young and works in progress. Keeping that in mind, I want to see Park come up and offer his bat to the lineup. Would rather see Grossman do the occasional rotation in the outfield. 

 

Of course, we need to figure out Escobar and Polanco and what to do with the disabled guy when he returns.

 

 

 

[pbrezeasap]

 

Is what the Twins realistically need to go from here on out to have a good "shot" at the playoffs.

Can they do it?

 

Looking at their schedule for the rest of season with the optimism I feel after the first week I can see how they could get 80 more wins, but then I remember how I felt after the Vikings 5-0 start and there's no reason to get my hopes up. I just hope for the next 6 weeks they keep playing good ball against all the Central teams, don't get swept by the Rangers or Red Sox, and then build some more momentum from there and see what happens.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Detroit will be a tell. They have to see how strong their own division is, first. Then, you have to win (consistently) series. A couple more times thru the rotation should give us a cue on how they will be responding and how soon we need a change in a spot. The bullpen? Well, at least there are arms down on the farm.

 

I am worried about the outfield hitting...as they are all still young and works in progress. Keeping that in mind, I want to see Park come up and offer his bat to the lineup. Would rather see Grossman do the occasional rotation in the outfield. 

 

Of course, we need to figure out Escobar and Polanco and what to do with the disabled guy when he returns.

I don't think there are any questions about Escobar. He is a top notch utility infielder - one of the best actually.

 

Polanco is a MLB hitter, it's a no brainer to me. How good can he be at the plate is the only question.

 

His defense however is still a big mystery. So far, so good. (SSS)

[TNTwinsFan]

The relief pitchers currently have a 1.61 ERA. 6 of the 8 relievers who have pitched have not allowed a run. They will regress, not get stronger.

 

In your opinion, what percentage of the wins thus far could be attributed to the stellar (and unsustainable) relief pitching? I've watched most of the games this year. There were blow-outs the first two games with about 3-4 innings piched by the pen. They then held the line for 4 innings to complete the openining series sweep vs. KC. Close game again in series opener vs. White Sox, Haley pitches well, then coughs up 3 runs on 2 homers in game 2 (after Mejia digs a 3 run hole after 2 innings), then the Pen gives up 1 run in 3 more innings of relief on Sunday to clinch the series. They will certainly regress...however, I am interested in what that means in terms of wins and losses. Looking at the "close games" (winning by 3 runs or less) if you split those 50/50, they still have a winning record. You think the pen will regress enough to lose half of the close games for the rest of the season?

[Doomtints]

 

In your opinion, what percentage of the wins thus far could be attributed to the stellar (and unsustainable) relief pitching? I've watched most of the games this year. There were blow-outs the first two games with about 3-4 innings piched by the pen. They then held the line for 4 innings to complete the openining series sweep vs. KC. Close game again in series opener vs. White Sox, Haley pitches well, then coughs up 3 runs on 2 homers in game 2 (after Mejia digs a 3 run hole after 2 innings), then the Pen gives up 1 run in 3 more innings of relief on Sunday to clinch the series. They will certainly regress...however, I am interested in what that means in terms of wins and losses. Looking at the "close games" (winning by 3 runs or less) if you split those 50/50, they still have a winning record. You think the pen will regress enough to lose half of the close games for the rest of the season?

 

You could argue all of the wins are due to the relievers. They have been stellar.  

All I can say is the 1.61 ERA they have right now is unsustainable unless they now have the best bullpen in baseball history.

If it turns out they have merely a "good" bullpen, their ERA will more than double over the course of the year. That's still good (great by last year's standards) and will mean the Twins will get a lot of wins based on their bullpen performance. They won't keep winning at an .833 clip, however.
 

Likely the bullpen will get over-used as the season rolls on, as the starting staff is still suspect.

[TNTwinsFan]

You could argue all of the wins are due to the relievers. They have been stellar.  

All I can say is the 1.61 ERA they have right now is unsustainable unless they now have the best bullpen in baseball history.

If it turns out they have merely a "good" bullpen, their ERA will more than double over the course of the year. That's still good (great by last year's standards) and will mean the Twins will get a lot of wins based on their bullpen performance. They won't keep winning at an .833 clip, however.

 

Likely the bullpen will get over-used as the season rolls on, as the starting staff is still suspect.

I don't think I can make the case that the Pen was solely responsible for the wins (as evidenced by the fact that our Starters have more wins than any of the pitchers in the Pen do, collectively.) I agree with you that they will mot win at a .833 clip. I'm curious what your thoughts might be as to the affect of a regression to the means ("doubling" their ERA as you put it) might be in terms of wins and losses? Will the pen lose 50% of the "close games"? 25% 75% etc?

[Doomtints]

 

I don't think I can make the case that the Pen was solely responsible for the wins (as evidenced by the fact that our Starters have more wins than any of the pitchers in the Pen do, collectively.)

 

What the starters did is only half the story.  6 of the 8 relievers have a 0.00 ERA. What happens if everybody has a 2.00 ERA instead -- still an outstanding achievement?  The 2 extra runs per game makes the end result look very different:

 

Game 1 - W still goes to Santana

Game 2 - Still a W, but the W could go to a reliever (depending on when the 2 runs are scored)

Game 3 - Game would be tied going into the bottom of the 9th. Different pitcher gets the W or its a L.

Game 4 - Game tied at end of the 9th. Game goes to extra innings. Different pitcher gets the W or its a L.

Game 5 - Still a L.

Game 6 - Still a W, but a reliever could get the W.

 

If the relievers allowed just 2 more runs per game, for an outstanding collective 2.00 ERA, the starting staff would be looking at as few as 1 wins so far and the team could have dropped 2 more games.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Molitor could play a factor in selecting new bullpen arms too... Through the first 6 games the trend is Molitor has no faith in Tonkin and won't use him in close ball games. He could very well be the one who's DFA'd. 

 

I'm in complete agreement that Molitor should be DFA'd if he continues to make poor decisions with the pen.

[twinssporto]

Better Defense: CHECK!

Better Offense: CHECK!

Momentum: CHECK!

Better starting rotation: CHECK!

Better bullpen: CHECK!

More confidence: CHECK!

New FO: CHECK!

More pitchers in minors to bring up: CHECK!

Sano: CHECK!

Polanco: CHECK!

Castro, etc., etc.: CHECK!

 

85 wins.  Read it and weep (or cheer too)

 

 

 

 

[bird]

 

If the pen is different, doesn't that imply that the pen wasn't good enough leading up to August, or that the team wasn't in the hunt, and RP were traded?

 

Good point. I don't care about the W-L record per se, as I assume they'll be short of the playoffs. I'm very much interested in seeing dominating performances in AA and AAA, especially from as many as a half-dozen pitchers out of the two dozen with real promise. Secondly, I hope our FO has designs on dangling surplus assets at the deadline when the possibility still exists that someone is greedy enough to overpay. I'd love to see both Santana and Dozier fetch a haul, for guys like Santiago and Grossman to be worth decent prospects, and for Belisle, Kintzler, and Breslow to attract lottery ticket offers. I'd hate to see any opportunities in this regard squandered because we're "still in the hunt." Even if we really are, I want Berrios and Shaggy and whomever else is dominating in AAA to be relied upon over Breslow and Santiago.

[DaveW]

At the end of the day, I just want to watch meaningful baseball in Sept. as long as they can stay within striking distance of the playoffs come Sept first (i.e. 5 or less games out of the wild card spot) it at least gives us a reason to watch. Nothing is worse than being out 15 games in mid August.

[DJSim22]

I'll move my prediction of 69 wins to 70. 

[USAFChief]

What the starters did is only half the story.  6 of the 8 relievers have a 0.00 ERA. What happens if everybody has a 2.00 ERA instead -- still an outstanding achievement?  The 2 extra runs per game makes the end result look very different:

 

Game 1 - W still goes to Santana

Game 2 - Still a W, but the W could go to a reliever (depending on when the 2 runs are scored)

Game 3 - Game would be tied going into the bottom of the 9th. Different pitcher gets the W or its a L.

Game 4 - Game tied at end of the 9th. Game goes to extra innings. Different pitcher gets the W or its a L.

Game 5 - Still a L.

Game 6 - Still a W, but a reliever could get the W.

 

If the relievers allowed just 2 more runs per game, for an outstanding collective 2.00 ERA, the starting staff would be looking at as few as 1 wins so far and the team could have dropped 2 more games.

If everyone in the pen had a 2 ERA, that would not equal 2 more runs per game.

 

As it is, the Twins collective BP ERA is 1.61.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The relief pitchers currently have a 1.61 ERA. 6 of the 8 relievers who have pitched have not allowed a run. They will regress, not get stronger.

I agree, though im more on Chiefs side.

 

The bullpen is currently a mirage and will regress, but then a few of the reinforcements will arrive and the bullpen will get stronger by adding more talent.

[Doomtints]

 

If everyone in the pen had a 2 ERA, that would not equal 2 more runs per game.

As it is, the Twins collective BP ERA is 1.61.

 

I was expecting someone to say that.

 

But you are wrong.

 

If the 6 Twins relievers who currently have a 0.00 ERA had a 2.00 ERA instead, what would that mean?

[ashbury]

6 of the 8 relievers have a 0.00 ERA. What happens if everybody has a 2.00 ERA instead -- still an outstanding achievement?  The 2 extra runs per game ...

That is not how ERA works.

 

The relievers don't pitch nine innings. If they did, we'd call them starters. So, if the bullpen pitches 3 or 4 innings a game, an extra 2 runs would mean an ERA of more like 4.50 or 6.00.

 

Yes, an extra 2 runs a game would change the outcome of several games. But we already know having relievers with ERA trending toward 6 is bad for a team.

 

Chief basically said this above.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was expecting someone to say that.

 

But you are wrong.

 

If the 6 Twins relievers who currently have a 0.00 ERA had a 2.00 ERA instead, what would that mean?

No offense but Chief is right. You worded it as the following:

 

"If the relievers allowed just 2 more runs per game"

 

Relievers don't pitch nine innings per game. If they allowed two more runs per game, that'd be well over a 2.00 ERA.

 

I assume you meant "if the relievers all had a +2.00 ERA", which is different.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That is not how ERA works.

 

The relievers don't pitch nine innings. If they did, we'd call them starters. So, if the bullpen pitches 3 or 4 innings a game, an extra 2 runs would mean an ERA of more like 4.50 or 6.00.

 

Yes, an extra 2 runs a game would change the outcome of several games. But we already know having relievers with ERA trending toward 6 is bad for a team.

 

Chief basically said this above.

If we want to be pedantic about it, most relievers pitch around one inning per appearance and as a unit, the bullpen is averaging about four innings per game. Plus two runs per reliever times four innings would give the bullpen a +8.00 ERA.

 

Which isn't that far off my preseason prediction, actually.

[USAFChief]

 

I was expecting someone to say that.

 

But you are wrong.

 

If the 6 Twins relievers who currently have a 0.00 ERA had a 2.00 ERA instead, what would that mean?

To pile on to the responses above...

 

I'll just pick one of the relievers with a 0.00 ERA, Tyler Duffey.  He's pitched three innings.  

 

-  If he had a 2.00 ERA, that would mean he would have allowed 0.33 runs this year.

 

-  If he had allowed 2 more runs, his ERA would be 6.00.

 

You can do the math yourself for the other 5.

 

I do agree, by the way, that the bullpen ERA will rise.  Significantly.  But I think the strength of the bullpen stands a good chance at improving as one or more of the minor league relief arms replace one or more of the current pen.

[Doomtints]

 

To pile on to the responses above...

 

I'll just pick one of the relievers with a 0.00 ERA, Tyler Duffey.  He's pitched three innings.  

 

-  If he had a 2.00 ERA, that would mean he would have allowed 0.33 runs this year.

 

-  If he had allowed 2 more runs, his ERA would be 6.00.

 

You can do the math yourself for the other 5.

 

I do agree, by the way, that the bullpen ERA will rise.  Significantly.  But I think the strength of the bullpen stands a good chance at improving as one or more of the minor league relief arms replace one or more of the current pen.

 

Nice points that would fit wonderfully into a completely different conversation.  But for this conversation what you are saying is 100% irrelevant.

 

If you collectively increase a group of pitchers from 0.00 ERA to 2.00 ERA, the net result is 2 more runs per game. Tyler Duffey's personal ERA is a completely different topic and utterly irrelevant to the point. Everyone gets it that Duffey isn't pitching 9 innings. And he doesn't have to because we are talking about THE TEAM'S ERA.

 

 

 

[DaveW]

 

 

If you collectively increase a group of pitchers from 0.00 ERA to 2.00 ERA, the net result is 2 more runs per game. 

That's only if that group of pitchers pitch 9 innings a game, in reality the bullpen pitchers 3-4 innings per game

 

So for a 2.00 ERA the net result is somewhere between 0.66-1.00 runs per game.



 

[youngtwinsfan]

I just hope all this winning doesn't cause the front office to forget we are still a rebuilding team that needs to make a youth movement. I would rather see this team win 70 games and sell high on old bullpen arms, Santana, and Dozier. Than make a trade or keep the veterans and win 82 games and fall short of the playoffs.