82-74

[DaveW]

Is what the Twins realistically need to go from here on out to have a good "shot" at the playoffs.

Can they do it?

[Vanimal46]

I'd love to see them continue to beat up AL Central teams for the rest of the month.... And see how they do against true contending teams. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

No, I don't think they can do that.

 

I've enjoyed the first five games of the season but I'm only going to nudge my 73 win preseason prediction a game or two. I'd put them around 75 wins this season now.

 

Which is great. I hope they continue playing good baseball through April, which will make the inevitable slumps more palatable.

[Tom Froemming]

I don't see it happening, and that's okay. Even if this team can go something like 75-87, that is going to "feel" awesome. Being 12 games under .500 over the course of a full season is obviously bad, but that's only averaging two games under .500 each month. Over the past five seasons, they've been able to accomplish that feat just 10 times (half of those came in 2015).

 

After suffering through 103 losses, a 75-87 record would be great. Back in September, I wrote about the recent history of 100-loss teams and discovered teams averaged a 67-95 record the season after cracking the century mark.

[DaveW]

 

I'd love to see them continue to beat up AL Central teams for the rest of the month.... And see how they do against true contending teams. 

Yeah, beat the teams you should, and go close to .500 against the rest.

If they can go 12 games over .500 against the central, they only need to go .500 against everyone else to make the playoffs (easier said then done, no doubt, but that's the benefit in playing in a bad division)

[Mike Sixel]

I'm going with 76 wins, give or take. I still think they are the same team I thought would win around 73-74. 

 

ESan is what I thought he'd be, as are Sano and Polanco. Everyone else is still getting their feet wet, as it were, imo.

 

They could win that many, but I'd not bet on that side right now. Maybe in 2-3 weeks if this keeps up, I'll become a believer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They could win that many, but I'd not bet on that side right now. Maybe in 2-3 weeks if this keeps up, I'll become a believer.

I still wouldn't be a "believer" so much as I'd think "teams that finish April 6-10 games above .500 always have a shot at the playoffs".

 

Is this a better team than 2015? Yeah, maybe... but it's unlikely they'll get as lucky as the 2015 squad. So, in the end, I think this team's ceiling is mediocrity but a hot/lucky start could be enough to keep a marginal squad in the hunt through August and maybe even September.

 

It would require a feat of magic to keep this team in front of Cleveland, IMO.

[DaveW]

 

 

 

I've enjoyed the first five games of the season 

What about the 6th game?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What about the 6th game?

Derp. Whoops.

 

Yeah, okay, six games. Was counting wins, not games.

[DaveW]

 

I still wouldn't be a "believer" so much as I'd think "teams that finish April 6-10 games above .500 always have a shot at the playoffs".

 

Is this a better team than 2015? Yeah, maybe... but it's unlikely they'll get as lucky as the 2015 squad. So, in the end, I think this team's ceiling is mediocrity but a hot/lucky start could be enough to keep a marginal squad in the hunt through August and maybe even September.

 

It would require a feat of magic to keep this team in front of Cleveland, IMO.

The key is going to be how the "reinforcements" do:
 

If Berrios, Park and a couple of the young bullpen arms can contribute? Then anything is possible in a bad, bad division.

As long as the team is winning, the relative leash needs to be short. Park should be up like, right now. Meija needs to be sent down if he can't make it out of the 2nd inning again.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The key is going to be how the "reinforcements" do:
 

If Berrios, Park and a couple of the young bullpen arms can contribute? Then anything is possible in a bad, bad division.

As long as the team is winning, the relative leash needs to be short. Park should be up like, right now. Meija needs to be sent down if he can't make it out of the 2nd inning again.

I agree that if this team has an above .500 season, Berrios will need to be a significant contributor. I'd toss one or more of Jay, Chargois, and Melotakis in there as well.

 

This team is currently playing over its head. If they're going to continue playing good baseball, they'll need to patch some holes along the way.

 

As for Mejia, I give him no fewer than 4-5 starts before I consider pulling him from the rotation. That would only get him through April anyway.

[Vanimal46]

 

Yeah, beat the teams you should, and go close to .500 against the rest.

If they can go 12 games over .500 against the central, they only need to go .500 against everyone else to make the playoffs (easier said then done, no doubt, but that's the benefit in playing in a bad division)

 

I really underestimated how bad the division is going to be this year... The Royals' bullpen went from their best weapon to a disaster. Once the White Sox sell off the rest of their good players are going to be very bad in the 2nd half. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Preseason, Fangraphs had the Twins projected at 75-87.

 

Obviously not enough time has elapsed for their model to really change from the preseason projection, so applying that projection over their remaining games gives us 72-84, which would put us at 77-85 overall.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In regards to the division, Fangraphs wasn't very high on anyone other than Cleveland.  Preseason projected win totals:

 

Cleveland 93.5

Detroit 81.6

Kansas City 75.5

Twins 74.9

Chicago 67.8

 

That probably does increase the potential that one of those non-Cleveland teams could pad their record a bit above their "true talent" level.

[DaveW]

 

I really underestimated how bad the division is going to be this year... The Royals' bullpen went from their best weapon to a disaster. Once the White Sox sell off the rest of their good players are going to be very bad in the 2nd half. 

I don't think the Tigers are that great of a team either. I view them as a 75-80 win type team.

[bluechipper]

I've been a believer that they will stay at least within striking distance of the wild card throughout the season. A top 5 offense and a middle of the pack pitching staff should do that.

[Craig Arko]

Twins host Cleveland for 4 games next week. That will be a very interesting series.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I've been a believer that they will stay at least within striking distance of the wild card throughout the season. A top 5 offense and a middle of the pack pitching staff should do that.

It's possible they pull off a top five offense but some serious voodoo is required for this pitching staff to stay middle of the pack as it's currently constructed.

 

The way I see it, the Twins need significant contributions from several pitchers to be middle of the pack: Berrios, Mejia, Duffey, Jay, Chargois, Melotakis. If three of those guys contribute at league average or better rates for a good portion of the season, this pitching staff may be able to pull off a middle of the pack ranking.

 

As the staff stands now, not so much. 60% of their current rotation - Hughes, Gibson, Santiago - have a ceiling of "middle of the pack" while Santana isn't significantly higher than that. While I'm at it, Mejia's ceiling is probably middle of the pack, too.

[GCTF]

 

Is what the Twins realistically need to go from here on out to have a good "shot" at the playoffs.

Can they do it?

No, as you do not appear confident enough to "book it".

[Blake]

 

I agree that if this team has an above .500 season, Berrios will need to be a significant contributor. I'd toss one or more of Jay, Chargois, and Melotakis in there as well.

 

This team is currently playing over its head. If they're going to continue playing good baseball, they'll need to patch some holes along the way.

 

As for Mejia, I give him no fewer than 4-5 starts before I consider pulling him from the rotation. That would only get him through April anyway.

I'm going to disagree and think Hughes needs to be on a shorter leash than Meija. I think Hughes doesn't make it deep into the game without Buxton and company. (However, I concede I may be incorrect in thinking Buxton and company did a great job of tracking down some hard hit balls)

 

Anyway, I don't know that the team is playing over its head, simply because it's possible a too many people are overlooking the improved outfield play. 

 

Do I think this is a playoff team? No. But, I do believe the Twins are a competitive team. Which is a huge step up.*

 

*caveat: I'm tired and am possibly hallucinating this whole thing.

[USAFChief]

The only thing this team needs to be a fringe contender is competent starting pitching. There's no reason the every day lineup can't compete, and the pen should get stronger as the season progresses.

 

If the young position players can't be counted on at this point, I doubt they ever can be.

[Doomtints]

I wouldn't spend too much time thinking about this unless they are in first place around midseason.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I wouldn't spend too much time thinking about this unless they are in first place around midseason.

At this point last season they were 0-6, so I'm going to go ahead and speculate wildly while I can.

 

I will predict 85 wins. We will play competitive baseball all year, but fade slightly down the stretch to fall out of the wildcard. Enjoyable season and next year better still.

[Doomtints]

 

The only thing this team needs to be a fringe contender is competent starting pitching. There's no reason the every day lineup can't compete, and the pen should get stronger as the season progresses.

 

The relief pitchers currently have a 1.61 ERA. 6 of the 8 relievers who have pitched have not allowed a run. They will regress, not get stronger. 

[Doomtints]

 

At this point last season they were 0-6, so I'm going to go ahead and speculate wildly while I can.

I will predict 85 wins. We will play competitive baseball all year, but fade slightly down the stretch to fall out of the wildcard. Enjoyable season and next year better still.

 

I'm guessing the season will be enjoyable even without 85 wins. Defensively they look good, which has made the SP and RP look better.

 

What happens to the defense if Buxton is still hitting .100 in a month?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm going to disagree and think Hughes needs to be on a shorter leash than Meija. I think Hughes doesn't make it deep into the game without Buxton and company. (However, I concede I may be incorrect in thinking Buxton and company did a great job of tracking down some hard hit balls)

We're not in disagreement about that. I was speaking specifically about Mejia, not Mejia in context of the rest of the staff.

[Blake]

 

I'm guessing the season will be enjoyable even without 85 wins. Defensively they look good, which has made the SP and RP look better.

 

What happens to the defense if Buxton is still hitting .100 in a month?

It depends, is the team still winning?

[Blake]

 

We're not in disagreement about that. I was speaking specifically about Mejia, not Mejia in context of the rest of the staff.

Ah, Gotcha, see caveat.

[DaveW]

 

The relief pitchers currently have a 1.61 ERA. 6 of the 8 relievers who have pitched have not allowed a run. They will regress, not get stronger. 

And guys like Dozier, Mauer, Buxton, Kepler all should progress. 

It goes both ways.

The key is to keep winning games.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I'm guessing the season will be enjoyable even without 85 wins. Defensively they look good, which has made the SP and RP look better.

 

What happens to the defense if Buxton is still hitting .100 in a month?

I don't believe Buck will be hitting poorly in a month. If I'm wrong and he has to step back to move forward, obviously the outfield D takes a huge hit. I think he'll be fine.