82-74

[ashbury]

It's always awkward for a moderator to have to shift gears and stop participating in a given thread to say something else, but...

 

Moderator's note: The tangent about 2 runs this-or-that has managed to divert from the actual topic of the thread, and isn't showing signs of getting resolved. If you feel inclined to pursue the hypothetical issue of bullpens with ERAs 2.00 higher, please start a different thread.

[drjim]

Games like today make me think it is more possible. Not necessarily the total runs, but the response to losing 2 close games and rallying to prevent the sweep.

 

It just seems too often they'd letdown in a game like this and hightail out of town.

[Linus]

I just hope all this winning doesn't cause the front office to forget we are still a rebuilding team that needs to make a youth movement. I would rather see this team win 70 games and sell high on old bullpen arms, Santana, and Dozier. Than make a trade or keep the veterans and win 82 games and fall short of the playoffs.

I would argue that the youth movement is mostly here. They need Berries and Meija to come through and they will be close.

[drjim]

I would argue that the youth movement is mostly here. They need Berries and Meija to come through and they will be close.

A couple relievers. Maybe a catcher and dh too.

 

There is enough young talent that they should have some space to dip in the free agent pool to bridge the gap while the low minors is rebuilt.

[DaveW]

Is what the Twins realistically need to go from here on out to have a good "shot" at the playoffs.

 

Can they do it?

Since this was posted the Twins have gone 13-13, but have looked particularly better the best couple weeks.

 

Thus to have a real chance at the playoffs they need to go:

69-61 the rest of the way.

 

If Santana continues to pitch well, Berrios comes on strong and Hughes/Santiago can both "hang in there" I think the rotation is ok enough to keep us in it.

 

Buxton continuing to progress, Dozier getting back to Dozier mashing, and Sano destroying every ball in sight gives us the potential offense needed.

 

Bullpen: TBD but by far the biggest question mark.

[DaveW]

68-61

[DaveW]

63-57 the rest of the way should get them damn close.

[DaveW]

 

Yeah, beat the teams you should, and go close to .500 against the rest.

If they can go 12 games over .500 against the central, they only need to go .500 against everyone else to make the playoffs (easier said then done, no doubt, but that's the benefit in playing in a bad division)

Elite baseball mind.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Elite baseball mind.

Hah, well played Dave. Your season prognostication skills outweigh your trade prediction skills. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

Reading these comments has really been fun.

Very interesting year.

[Dman]

 

Elite baseball mind.

Dave since I am always willing to call you out on your bluster I have to give you props on your prediction.  Took some balls to go against the grain and the numbers buy it looks like you were more right than anyone else.

[DaveW]

 

It's possible they pull off a top five offense but some serious voodoo is required for this pitching staff to stay middle of the pack as it's currently constructed.

 

The way I see it, the Twins need significant contributions from several pitchers to be middle of the pack: Berrios, Mejia, Duffey, Jay, Chargois, Melotakis. If three of those guys contribute at league average or better rates for a good portion of the season, this pitching staff may be able to pull off a middle of the pack ranking.

 

As the staff stands now, not so much. 60% of their current rotation - Hughes, Gibson, Santiago - have a ceiling of "middle of the pack" while Santana isn't significantly higher than that. While I'm at it, Mejia's ceiling is probably middle of the pack, too.

Not calling you out at all, but wow, if you look at it: out of Berrios, Mejia, Duffey, Jay, etc in your second paragraph its amazing to think the Twins are where they are now, and only Berrios contributed, and even he was closer to a #4 then a #2 (and I'm a big fan of Berrios and his future)

Also, Hughes, Santiago gave us zero, and Gibson gave us zero for most of the season. Unreal the Twins are where they are now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not calling you out at all, but wow, if you look at it: out of Berrios, Mejia, Duffey, Jay, etc in your second paragraph its amazing to think the Twins are where they are now, and only Berrios contributed, and even he was closer to a #4 then a #2 (and I'm a big fan of Berrios and his future)

Also, Hughes, Santiago gave us zero, and Gibson gave us zero for most of the season. Unreal the Twins are where they are now.

Well, they countered by having a top three offense instead of top five.

 

And Hildenberger stepped in to shore up a middle of the pack (if you squint, but a mostly bad, really) pitching staff.

 

And it's kind of unfair to classify Berrios as a #4. He has a 3.86 FIP and a 113 ERA+. That's a very good #3 at minimum.

[DaveW]

Well, they countered by having a top three offense instead of top five.

 

And Hildenberger stepped in to shore up a middle of the pack (if you squint, but a mostly bad, really) pitching staff.

 

And it's kind of unfair to classify Berrios as a #4. He has a 3.86 FIP and a 113 ERA+. That's a very good #3 at minimum.

I didn't call him a number 4, I said he is closer to a 4 then a 2, basically because of his inconsistency. He did take a big step fwd this year, hopefully next year he does the same.

[Dantes929]

 

Dave since I am always willing to call you out on your bluster I have to give you props on your prediction.  Took some balls to go against the grain and the numbers buy it looks like you were more right than anyone else.

Well..... he never predicted they would go 82-74 after the first 6 games but rather predicted that was what was needed from that point to have a shot at the playoffs.    Actually off by a rather large margin in that department.   83 Wins clinched the spot so the results needed at that point was 78-78 and that is the MOST that was needed.   Depending on how the other former contenders do the next 4 games it is possible that at the time a record as low as 74-82 would have done the trick.   Hard to believe but that would have given us 79 wins and currently the others are stuck at 78 with 4 to go..

[Doomtints]

 

I didn't call him a number 4, I said he is closer to a 4 then a 2, basically because of his inconsistency. He did take a big step fwd this year, hopefully next year he does the same.

 

He is playing better than Matt Scherzer did in his second year.

 

Trying to categorize a player with his minimal experience as a #X is a strange thing to do. If Berrios were a Yankee, people would be convinced he was about to blossom into the next ace. Twins fans always try to belittle our young guys.

[DaveW]

 

He is playing better than Matt Scherzer did in his second year.

 

Trying to categorize a player with his minimal experience as a #X is a strange thing to do. If Berrios were a Yankee, people would be convinced he was about to blossom into the next ace. Twins fans always try to belittle our young guys.

I'm not belittling him at all!

I was saying that it's not like he came on and was some savior Ace for us. He's basically a solid 3 at this stage, which is great! And like I said, I hope he takes the next step because I think he has the upside to be even better (Top Tier #2, low tier ACE)

[USAFChief]

 

I've been a believer that they will stay at least within striking distance of the wild card throughout the season. A top 5 offense and a middle of the pack pitching staff should do that.

best prediction in this thread

[USAFChief]

 

The only thing this team needs to be a fringe contender is competent starting pitching. There's no reason the every day lineup can't compete, and the pen should get stronger as the season progresses.

If the young position players can't be counted on at this point, I doubt they ever can be.

also prescient

[USAFChief]

 

Better Defense: CHECK!

Better Offense: CHECK!

Momentum: CHECK!

Better starting rotation: CHECK!

Better bullpen: CHECK!

More confidence: CHECK!

New FO: CHECK!

More pitchers in minors to bring up: CHECK!

Sano: CHECK!

Polanco: CHECK!

Castro, etc., etc.: CHECK!

 

85 wins.  Read it and weep (or cheer too)

nice

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

"Nobody ever could have predicted this"

 

- so say the big media personalities

[Dman]

 

Well..... he never predicted they would go 82-74 after the first 6 games but rather predicted that was what was needed from that point to have a shot at the playoffs.    Actually off by a rather large margin in that department.   83 Wins clinched the spot so the results needed at that point was 78-78 and that is the MOST that was needed.   Depending on how the other former contenders do the next 4 games it is possible that at the time a record as low as 74-82 would have done the trick.   Hard to believe but that would have given us 79 wins and currently the others are stuck at 78 with 4 to go..

My bad I missed that.

[DaveW]

 

My bad I missed that.

To be fair I was one of the few saying this team would make the playoffs from the jump.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He is playing better than Matt Scherzer did in his second year.

 

Trying to categorize a player with his minimal experience as a #X is a strange thing to do. If Berrios were a Yankee, people would be convinced he was about to blossom into the next ace. Twins fans always try to belittle our young guys.

 

He literally said he was a big believer in his future, and was only commenting on this year. Where the @$#@^$ did he belittle Berrios at all?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I didn't call him a number 4, I said he is closer to a 4 then a 2, basically because of his inconsistency. He did take a big step fwd this year, hopefully next year he does the same.

Ah, got it. I think he’s a very good #3 but can see why you’d feel differently.

[DaveW]

 

Ah, got it. I think he’s a very good #3 but can see why you’d feel differently.

Yeah I think so too, to be clear though, I think there is a big jump/gap between #2 and #3. That's sort of what i was getting at, before I consider Berrios a #2 he needs to get more consistent and needs to average 7+ innings a start, and a bit lower ERA etc as well.

I think he can do it, pitchers always take time.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah I think so too, to be clear though, I think there is a big jump/gap between #2 and #3. That's sort of what i was getting at, before I consider Berrios a #2 he needs to get more consistent and needs to average 7+ innings a start, and a bit lower ERA etc as well.

 

I think he can do it, pitchers always take time.

Averaging 7 innings per start would be 231 IP over a full season. Does anyone do that anymore?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Averaging 7 innings per start would be 231 IP over a full season. Does anyone do that anymore?

No. Sale is leading the majors with 214 IP.

 

But averaging 7.0 IP and 6.1 IP is more than the difference between that hypothetical pitcher and Sale so we're talking a very small difference per game.

[twinssporto]

 

"Nobody ever could have predicted this"

- so say the big media personalities

Look at the post #111 above.  I tried telling this to the media but they didn't pay any attention to me...

[twinssporto]

 

nice

Thanks Chief!  I was literally looking up that post when I saw your like come through.  I might go buy a lotto ticket tonight.  Fun year!!