2017: Guess the date when Mauer surpasses Bumgarner in 2017 HRs

[gil4]

 

So you're advocating our guys to swing at pitches out of the zone based on where they hit in the lineup...got it. Oh, and also pass up the free run they're going to give you. Just put the bat on the ball there Joe, a fly out would at least mean you're TRYING TO bat cleanup.

That's the long was to say "Rosario for clean-up."

[gil4]

 

Really? We won the first game can't we just lay off for a little while?

In theory, it seems like it should be easy.  In practice, it's harder than finding the queen in three-card monte.

[twinsnorth49]

Let's guess the date people stop being bitter about Mauer's contract and get over him ruining their lives. 

 

 

 

Is never a date?

[Craig Arko]

Let's guess the date people stop being bitter about Mauer's contract and get over him ruining their lives. 

 

 

 

Is never a date?

Well, you better bring flowers and chocolates.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Let's guess the date people stop being bitter about Mauer's contract and get over him ruining their lives. 

 

 

 

Is never a date?

 

Danny Santana ruined my life, smarty pants.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Well, you better bring flowers and chocolates.

When never comes, I'll be ready and waiting. 

[Vanimal46]

Let's guess the date people stop being bitter about Mauer's contract and get over him ruining their lives.

 

 

 

Is never a date?

It's sad, really...

[Dantes929]

 Runs produced is RBI plus runs scored minus home runs since you get a run scored and RBI for a home run but it is still only one run.   Mauer is on pace for 162 RBI and 162 runs scored for Runs Produced of 324.  Bumgarner is on pace for 324 RBI and 324 runs scored but also 324 Runs Produced..   Joe is just more efficient.

[USAFChief]

Runs produced is RBI plus runs scored minus home runs since you get a run scored and RBI for a home run but it is still only one run.   Mauer is on pace for 162 RBI and 162 runs scored for Runs Produced of 324.  Bumgarner is on pace for 324 RBI and 324 runs scored but also 324 Runs Produced..   Joe is just more efficient.

Bumgarner will get his 324 in only 34 games, maybe 35. He's more efficient.

 

So there!

[Dantes929]

 

Bumgarner will get his 324 in only 34 games, maybe 35. He's more efficient.

So there!

LOL.    Sorry but if he only plays in 34 the projected  RBI and runs will be 68 each with 68 Runs produced.   Unless you think he will hit about 9 home runs per game.   Please be realistic like I was.

[Taildragger8791]

 

I think Joe hits 12-15 this year, erring on the high side, really. 

 

Getting back on topic...

 

12-15 seems awfully optimistic. His 2nd best season ever was 13 HR and that was over 10 years ago. Mauer isn't going to be that aging hitter who starts biasing his approach to get more power to stay productive. He's had one single batting approach his whole career and it will be that same approach until the day he hangs 'em up.

[ashbury]

When never comes, I'll be ready and waiting. 

When never you want me, I'll be there.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfG47NsWVYA

 

^{_{/ And when never your phone don't ring, it'll be me.}}

[ashbury]

Getting back on topic...

Topic? Don't talk about... topic. You kiddin' me? Topic?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3-eavMSBnk

[DrNeau]

 

Yeah, I was really disappointed when Mauer didn't swing at three consecutive pitches so he could sit back down.

 

mauer.jpg

 

I was not disappointed with the result of Mauer's 7th inning at bat on Monday. The first pitch, he was taking all the way. He did not even gear up - to the slightest bit - in anticipation of a possible swing. The second pitch was right down the pipe, and most cleanup hitters are trying to destroy that ball. Not ours. Good result that the pitcher choked up and couldn't find the plate versus a guy who had no intention of ever swinging. Hope that continues!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was not disappointed with the result of Mauer's 7th inning at bat on Monday. The first pitch, he was taking all the way. He did not even gear up - to the slightest bit - in anticipation of a possible swing. The second pitch was right down the pipe, and most cleanup hitters are trying to destroy that ball. Not ours. Good result that the pitcher choked up and couldn't find the plate versus a guy who had no intention of ever swinging. Hope that continues!

Okay, if you wish to continue going down this road.

 

Pitch one. Mauer was taking all the way because the thing wasn't anywhere near the strike zone and Joe saw that immediately.

 

 

Pitch two. This is not right down the pipe. This is a classic LHP vs LHB pitch. It's tailing away from the batter on the lower outside half of the plate. Do you know what happens if a LHB swings at this pitch? One of three things:

 

1. He misses the pitch entirely and swings right over it.

2. He drives it into the dirt, sending it into the third base dugout.

3. He drives it into the dirt and chops it to the third baseman, who steps on the bag and ends the inning.

 

I've even highlighted the strike zone and ball to make this painfully obvious.

 

[Willihammer]

Only Mauer could get an RBI in a 2-out bases loaded situation and still get ripped.

[DrNeau]

Pitch two: 

 

Possibility # 4: He hammers it somewhere. 

 

Hope pitchers continue to throw 3 straight balls after all of his 1-1 counts for the rest of the year. Can't hit any homers unless you take a big hack now and then. I said he'll still be homerless on May 25th. I guess we'll see!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Pitch two: 

 

4. He hammers it somewhere. 

Physics disagrees with this statement.

 

How do you hammer a ball that is moving away from you, is knee high, and scraping the outside half of the zone?

 

Easy answer: you don't.

 

Wood made his pitch in that situation. He threw a pitch Mauer had little chance of turning into productive contact and got the called strike. He tried the same strategy on the next pitch and missed the zone, putting Mauer in a 3-1 situation.

 

The fifth pitch was shoulder high and backed Joe away from the plate. Another unhittable pitch called for a ball, putting Joe on first base.

 

And, again, you said that pitch was "right down the pipe". It was obviously not right down the pipe, as illustrated by an actual photo of the pitch. Here's the photo again, just to drive the point home.

 

 

I just grabbed a random heatmap for Miggy off a Google search. Notice how hard he tags those lower outer half of the plate pitches. Grip and rip, amirite?

 

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0814/cabrera_miguel_g_mp_576.jpg

[Mike Sixel]

 

Only Mauer could get an RBI in a 2-out bases loaded situation and still get ripped.

 

if you read the Reds' sites, you'd see Votto get ripped for the same thing. Mind. Boggling.

[Willihammer]

Sano took a 1-0 strike too. Let's get him!

[DrNeau]

 

Wood made his pitch in that situation. He threw a pitch Mauer had little chance of turning into productive contact and got the called strike. 

 

The pitch was a strike and was hittable. Please identify a pitch that Mauer has a good chance of turning into productive contact. How about right down the very heart of the plate? Would you consider that to be his hot zone? It's really not; he hit .196 on those last year. When is your predicted date that he will surpass Bumgarner in homers, anyway? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The pitch was a strike and was hittable.

Yeah, because players make such solid contact on pitches in the outer lower half of the zone, especially against same-handed pitchers, which means the ball is tailing away from the hitter.

 

You keep grasping at straws, I keep providing actual evidence contrary to your statements, yet you persist.

 

Go find some evidence that pitches in the lower outer quarter of the plate routinely turn into productive contact and please, share it with the forum. I'd love to see those numbers.

[DrNeau]

When is your predicted date? Don't wish to give one? It's the main point of the thread (mentioned in title). Mauer does have to swing the bat hard in order to hit a home run.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

When is your predicted date? Don't wish to give one? It's the main point of the thread (mentioned in title). Mauer does have to swing the bat hard in order to hit a home run.

June 31st because that's how much I care about "pull a number out of your ass and post it" contests.

[drjim]

Mauer to DrNeau

 

 

For the rest of us, after reading the reasoning of why Mauer should have swung at that pitch:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkodTydUR0E

[drjim]

I do want to give some credit though, DrNeau is an awesome handle.

[Dantes929]

 

Pitch two: 

 

Possibility # 4: He hammers it somewhere. 

 

Hope pitchers continue to throw 3 straight balls after all of his 1-1 counts for the rest of the year. Can't hit any homers unless you take a big hack now and then. I said he'll still be homerless on May 25th. I guess we'll see!

Here I will disagree with Brock.   Mauer has a history of doing ok with this pitch.   Of course if he hammers it anywhere in the air it will be to left field where Gordon has a history of robbing Mauer of everything.   Still it is a strike and Mauer has a chance of getting a hit much like Castro's (that was elevated a little more but still).    So #4 is a possibility if not a probability but it is a pitcher's pitch so why would anyone be complaining about Mauer taking it?   I don't really like Buxton batting 3rd but if he does then Mauer demonstrated why he should be in the 4 spot between Buxton and Sano.    You don't want three undisciplined hitters in a row.   Home run power isn't what Mauer brings to the table so why all the focus on that?   Its like obsessing about when Sano will steal his first base of the season.    I care about Mauer's   OBP because this group has a short history of being OBP starved..   

[DrNeau]

I'd like to see Mauer mix in an early-count aggressive swing once in a while.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Here I will disagree with Brock.   Mauer has a history of doing ok with this pitch.   Of course if he hammers it anywhere in the air it will be to left field where Gordon has a history of robbing Mauer of everything.   Still it is a strike and Mauer has a chance of getting a hit much like Castro's (that was elevated a little more but still).    So #4 is a possibility if not a probability but it is a pitcher's pitch so why would anyone be complaining about Mauer taking it?

Sure, Mauer *could* make contact with the pitch but it's the kind of pitch that usually turns into an out. Even if Mauer is somehow able to elevate that pitch, the ball likely ends up in the left fielder's glove. No matter how you look at it, the chances of "hammering" that pitch are low. Make contact? Sure. Hammer? No, not so much.

 

As you said, that's a pitcher's pitch... And swinging at a pitcher's pitch is a good way to create an out. That doesn't mean it's an automatic out - anything can happen in baseball - but it's a low probability pitch.

 

And we shouldn't criticize hitters for taking a low probability pitch, especially against a new pitcher who missed the zone by over a foot with the previous pitch.

[KirbyDome89]

Alright who has the physics degree? We need answers to this....