Column: Does a Robbie Grossman Trade Make Sense?

[Brandon Warne]

Wrote it up for Zone Coverage today. 

 

https://t.co/mEbXltEt7O

 

Glad to chat about it here. Comments, questions, (friendly) critiques welcomed!

[Brock Beauchamp]

I just don't see how Grossman would be worth anything right now. He's an interesting and youngish player but given his defensive woes and (potentially) career season, it's hard to gauge his real value.

 

If he reverts to being something approximating an average defender with a .750 OPS this season, I think his value stabilizes quite a bit.

 

So... maybe July? Right now, it makes sense to keep Grossman on the roster. The Twins have one of the best centerfielders in baseball, another acceptable centerfielder, and a tweener centerfielder starting games. They can afford to roll the dice defensively on Grossman, hoping he will rebound while maintaining a solid bat.

[Brandon Warne]

I see the point there, but I also don't think his value has anywhere to go but down. He's got 3 (?) years of control and is coming off what I suspect will be his best-ever offensive season.

 

If there was a Pat Light-type reliever available, I think I'd roll the dice on that, even. 

[Riverbrian]

I gotta agree with Brock. We got him for free last year and in my opinion his value right now isn't much higher because I think he has to do it again. He was one of our top hitters last year (small bar) but all that is worth to us is a back up role apparently. How much is a Twins backup worth? I can't even see getting a Pat Light return until July at the earliest if Grossman shows he can do it again. 

 

And for additional consideration... I still think it's possible that Grossman comes North as our starting DH. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Zack Granite...oh never mind...we've had that discussion before.

[ScottyB]

 

I see the point there, but I also don't think his value has anywhere to go but down. He's got 3 (?) years of control and is coming off what I suspect will be his best-ever offensive season.

 

If there was a Pat Light-type reliever available, I think I'd roll the dice on that, even. 

 

Personally I agree with all of you.  He's not worth anything now and will probably lose value.  I'd take a Dave Winfield trade - if someone was willing to spring for a dinner for Falvine.  Addition by subtraction IMHO.  I'd consider it a positive off-season if we didn't have Grossman on the roster on opening day.

[gil4]

 

Personally I agree with all of you.  He's not worth anything now and will probably lose value.  I'd take a Dave Winfield trade - if someone was willing to spring for a dinner for Falvine.  Addition by subtraction IMHO.  I'd consider it a positive off-season if we didn't have Grossman on the roster on opening day.

If last year was an indication he figured some things out at the plate, he could have some real value, especially if he can return to being an almost-average fielder.  His trade value is still close to zero now, especially with everyone crunching their rosters at the end of spring training, but someone could see him as a useful piece if they have and injury hole to patch or need another bat off the bench.

[Vanimal46]

Nobody would willingly trade for Grossman IMO. It's going to be on the Twins to cut him if it gets to that point. His defense was awful last season. No denying that. As long as he's a part timer with ~300 PAs, and he's clicking at the plate, he should stay. If he reverts back to a .650-.700 OPS player, then cut bait for someone else.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I see the point there, but I also don't think his value has anywhere to go but down. He's got 3 (?) years of control and is coming off what I suspect will be his best-ever offensive season.

 

If there was a Pat Light-type reliever available, I think I'd roll the dice on that, even.

if you think this, why wouldn't every GM in MLB. I think Grossman's value is getting on base and the other DH types have an option left. Have Grossman DH to start the season with an occasional start in left to see if he can replicate last year. If he can't, it's ok to cut bait and bring up Vargas, Park or Palka

[jorgenswest]

Really tough time of year to make deals. Teams all have to get down to their 25. There will be some bench pieces that will be available through DFA. There will be some out of options players that move in a deal but I don't think there will be a return of anything other than another out of options player or cash.

 

If he can put up an OBP in the high 300s again he will have value in July.

[ashbury]

The article was long on why Grossman isn't a fit for the team and even DSan might be a better choice, and short on what kind of return he might bring in trade. Suppose, as discussed in several responses here, that return turns out to be the renowned played Jack Diddly Bupkis. I.e., no one will trade for him. In that case, is it your (Brandon's) position that the team would be better DFAing Grossman so as to keep Santana?

[DJSim22]

Santana haves proven for multiple seasons that he should not be on the roster.  Grossman has yet to prove he shouldn't.  Grossman should be in the mix at DH and a bench bat and occasional outfielder.  To me he has more value and makes more sense. 

[D.C Twins]

I would be dissapointed if the Twins traded anything for him, so I can't imagine another team wanting to give up much if anything for him

[Brandon Warne]

 

The article was long on why Grossman isn't a fit for the team and even DSan might be a better choice, and short on what kind of return he might bring in trade. Suppose, as discussed in several responses here, that return turns out to be the renowned played Jack Diddly Bupkis. I.e., no one will trade for him. In that case, is it your (Brandon's) position that the team would be better DFAing Grossman so as to keep Santana?

 

That is because cretins like us aren't privy to who a guy like that might return. 

 

I would cut Danny before Robbie, FWIW

[Richie the Rally Goat]

That is because cretins like us aren't privy to who a guy like that might return.

 

I would cut Danny before Robbie, FWIW

i prefer to think of myself as a Spartan.

 

So you value Grossman over DanSan but have a perceived notion that Grossman might return some sort of value in trade, more than his value to the team as currently constructed?

[ToddlerHarmon]

With the need for Mauer to platoon, having Grossman able to bring an above-average bat to DH while Park takes first is a good fit. Look at that bench if Grossman leaves and Santana stays - Santana, Escobar, Gimenez, Adrianza. You shouldn't have to suffer DHing any of those. If you imagine Vargas on that bench but not Adrianza, now Santana plays way too often as the primary backup outfielder.

 

No, assuming we don't need defensive help in the outfield, I like Grossman just fine.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There would need to be a buyer. If there is one, yes, a trade makes a ton of sense. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I see the point there, but I also don't think his value has anywhere to go but down. He's got 3 (?) years of control and is coming off what I suspect will be his best-ever offensive season.

 

If there was a Pat Light-type reliever available, I think I'd roll the dice on that, even.

Grossman still has 4 years of team control (he is still pre-arb this year).

 

Pat Light himself cleared waivers not long ago, and more similar players will probably hit waivers very soon. No sense giving away Grossman yet to get an asset you otherwise could probably get for free.

[drjim]

I don't see why a borderline 40 man arm would be attractive for the Twins. If they could get a legit lower level pitching prospect I would consider it, but otherwise, just see if Grossman can build on last year. Another half season of that and the Twins can probably get something much better in return. If he falls off, not a whole lot lost if a Pat Light type return is the alternative.

[Linus]

Grossman is likely worth more to the Twins than anything we would receive in return. He provides a right handed bat for our lefthanded corner outfielders and first baseman and he provide obp which this team dearly needs. If could even be mediocre in the field he would be valuable to the twins.

[drjim]

He should be at least mediocre in the field. He was a positive defender in both 14 and 15 - he couldn't have collapsed *that* badly in one year.

[Mike Sixel]

If you trade anyone right now, they need to be traded for a starter (SS, DH, SP, RP), or for someone not on the 40 man. I don't think Grossman returns anyone that is a starter. No way.

 

That leaves someone either in the low minors, or someone that just isn't really a prospect in the high minors. I have no interest in more of the latter. So, would I trade Grossman for someone that wasn't much of a prospect, that is in the low minors? Good question. I'm going with no, an putting Grossman on the roster, and having him DH and sometimes play 1B (if possible). I might even put him in the OF again, because no one can be that bad.

[Brandon Warne]

 

i prefer to think of myself as a Spartan.

So you value Grossman over DanSan but have a perceived notion that Grossman might return some sort of value in trade, more than his value to the team as currently constructed?

 

I think that's pretty close, yeah. 

 

Basically, I think they should sell high on Grossman instead of cutting bait on Santana. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think that's pretty close, yeah.

 

Basically, I think they should sell high on Grossman instead of cutting bait on Santana.

i think they need Grossmans OBP more than the org filler that would be the return for Grossman.

[Willihammer]

On April 20, 2014, the Minnesota Twins selected outfielder Sam Fuld — a speedy, versatile defensive outfielder with good plate discipline — off waivers from the Oakland A’s. For the second year in a row, Aaron Hicks was off to a slow start to the season, which allowed Fuld to jump right into the mix.

 

Fuld wound up hitting a solid .274/.370/.354 with the Twins in 53 games despite being limited a bit due to concussion issues. On July 31 — just 103 days after he was claimed — Fuld was on the move again, as the last-place Twins flipped him back to the Oakland A’s for left-handed starter Tommy Milone.

 

It maybe didn’t start out that way, but it wound up being a calculated move by general manager Terry Ryan. At the time, the Twins were desperate for starting pitchers, while Milone had a solid 3.55 ERA on the season and a 3.84 mark for his career. And while Milone’s tenure with the club ended unceremoniously, it was still a good return on what was a minimal investment.

 

IIRC that was a special trade deadline for the A's. Milone was pushed out of the rotation and even though he had options he was due an Arb 1 raise which of course is real money for almost nobody except the A's. Maybe the Rays, Orioles, or Pirates too. So for me its hard to imagine the Twins getting a similar cost controlled Arb 1 or 2 player from anyone else, and at least one of those teams (the Pirates) is pretty stacked outfield wise. Plus, do we even want another Tommy Milone?

 

Grossman's decent insurance in the event Rosario or Kepler struggles, and if he blindsides us with a Ryan Rayburn like first half maybe someone like the Astros or Cardinals would offer real value. But I wouldn't 'plan' the season out that way. Rosario and Kepler both have much higher upside IMO.

[DrNeau]

They should give Grossman some reps at 1B before they head north.

[Thrylos]

Grossman has a groin injury.  Adrianza just left the game tonight with an oblique injury.  It will be unlikely that Adrianza will be in the opening day 25-man roster, Grossman is 50-50 I think.  

 

Not sure what someone would pay for Grossman.

 

But pretty sure that trading Grossman or not will not make or break this team.

 

Trading Dozier on the other hand...