Article: How The Twins Could Lose Another 100 Games

[TheLeviathan]

 

It would require Santana to repeat, Gibson to not be terrible again, and for May and Berrios to be somewhere around league average.

 

I'm... not confident in predicting that to happen.

 

This also assumes health which gets rolled into the luck equation.  And it assumes Berrios and May are starters, which I hope is true.

 

The bullpen and the defense might have been under-discussed so far too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This also assumes health which gets rolled into the luck equation.  And it assumes Berrios and May are starters, which I hope is true.

 

The bullpen and the defense might have been under-discussed so far too.

I try not to discuss the bullpen, per therapist orders.

[DaveW]

I'd handicap the twins at 68.5 wins this year, and I would be hard pressed not to bet the under. This pitching staff is an embarrassment. The defense isn't much better.

[Broker]

It's difficult to lose 100+ games. I don't think the Twins can do it two years in a row.

[Jerr]

 

It's difficult to lose 100+ games. I don't think the Twins can do it two years in a row.

Don't challenge them, lol lol.

[Taildragger8791]

The scary thing is that this could be a 100-loss team even if we kept everyone healthy all year. Considering our lack of depth, it gets a lot more likely if we lose any key players (Dozier, Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Ervin, maybe Santiago, and whoever the hell we have in the bullpen) for a significant length of time this year. Most of those guys stayed pretty healthy all year.The drop off is going to be steep behind most of them. And Sano & Buxton already have a propensity to get dinged up.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Has there been any word this offseason on what Sano has been up to this offseason? Did he play in any winter leagues? I'd be curious to see how he looks when he shows up to spring training here, physically and focus-wise. I think it'll say a lot about the season he's going to have. Hopefully he learned he won't get by on talent alone at this level and was motivated to work a little harder at his craft.

 

Another year of nagging injuries, looking sloppy, and appearing mentally unfocused is going to be disappointing. A focused and tenacious Sano should be scary good. I hope that's what we get starting in 2017.

 

Tweeted it around Christmas, but he'd lost eight pounds and is working hard. He looked good in the videos I saw then. 

[jimmer]

Well, if the team regresses, I think our record should be much better.

 

IMO, you are spot on in many areas, especially what you wrote in the Castro part of your article.

Edited January 26, 2017 by jimmer

[bluechipper]

 

Has there been any word this offseason on what Sano has been up to this offseason? Did he play in any winter leagues? I'd be curious to see how he looks when he shows up to spring training here, physically and focus-wise. I think it'll say a lot about the season he's going to have. Hopefully he learned he won't get by on talent alone at this level and was motivated to work a little harder at his craft.

 

Another year of nagging injuries, looking sloppy, and appearing mentally unfocused is going to be disappointing. A focused and tenacious Sano should be scary good. I hope that's what we get starting in 2017.

Hopefully last year showed Sano that he has to actually try in order to be good.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

Ouch, my heart.

[bluechipper]

Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, and Ricky Nolasco made a combined 59 starts last year. The best ERA of the bunch was 5.13. Topping that and losing 100 games again will be extremely difficult.

[goulik]

Topic Missed: The Grass was not greener on the other side

Falvey and Lavine fail to make improvements to the organization as a whole. The Twins lose all sense of identity they had not already lost with nothing positive to replace it and the death spiral leads to contraction. Target field sits empty for three years until a failing Florida team is relocated to "Greener Pastures"

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I try not to discuss the bullpen, per therapist orders.

Now that's funny, I don't care who you are!

[gocgo]

I think you missed one more thing.  The Twins don't really have a clubhouse leader - that Michael Cuddyer/Tori Hunter kind of player that keeps it loose in the dugout but at the same time plays with intensity.  That is needed for a team to be successful.  Without that, you lose 100+games.  Unless Castro is that guy, we still don't really have a clubhouse leader.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Hope springs eternal in the human breast...and in Fort Myers every March. Pitchers and catchers report in 18 days.

[Kwak]

What's the players' focus? Dozier exemplified his focus--dead pull hitting with an uppercut. If MLB "pays for drives and 'putts' for show" expect him and the rest to do the same. There will be games where the Twins score in bunches, but many more where scoring chances wither away. Also consider the '11 and '12 seasons: after the 12-game home stand in 2011 (post ASB) the team basically quit when Gardy played the bench almost exclusively; and in 2012 post Labor day they might just as well not bothered putting 9 on the field--they won only 4 games! So, what will be the motivation of the players? How much "fight is in this dog"? Do they play for each other? Or only for personal statistics? 100+ loss seasons include many many "me first" guys.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, and Ricky Nolasco made a combined 59 starts last year. The best ERA of the bunch was 5.13. Topping that and losing 100 games again will be extremely difficult.

 

I keep hearing this line repeated but I don't see how it matters when the replacements are far from sure things to do any better. It's tantamount to swapping deck chairs on the Titanic. Santiago, Berrios, Duffey (obvious injury fill-in candidate), May, Hughes, Mejia, and Gonsalves could all easily get rotation time this year and replicate those 59 starts. God forbid if Ervin goes down or yo-yos back to Bad Santa(na), now you're really talking trouble. There are so many more paths to being terrible again than there are paths to notable improvement. And currently there are no paths to getting above average in the next couple of years, barring major trades or free agent acquisitions.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, and Ricky Nolasco made a combined 59 starts last year. The best ERA of the bunch was 5.13. Topping that and losing 100 games again will be extremely difficult.

 

In fairness, we're on year 5? 10? of this argument in different iterations: "If we only don't give starts to X players, we'll be so much better!"

 

How's that been working out?

[Dantes929]

 

I keep hearing this line repeated but I don't see how it matters when the replacements are far from sure things to do any better. It's tantamount to swapping deck chairs on the Titanic. Santiago, Berrios, Duffey (obvious injury fill-in candidate), May, Hughes, Mejia, and Gonsalves could all easily get rotation time this year and replicate those 59 starts. God forbid if Ervin goes down or yo-yos back to Bad Santa(na), now you're really talking trouble. There are so many more paths to being terrible again than there are paths to notable improvement. And currently there are no paths to getting above average in the next couple of years, barring major trades or free agent acquisitions.

Of course there are paths to above average.  The simplest one is for enough of the current players to play better.    The Twins had a lot of young guys that played really poorly and two that played like we expected them to or better.   So of course the tone is "what if everyone else continues to play poorly and then the two that actually played well play poorly also."    I understand that the last 5 years have conditioned many to think that way but can't we at least consider the possibility that Berrios will be better than Nolasco and that May can be better than Milone and that Gibson can pitch more like 2015 than he did in 2016 and that 2015 is more a reflection of Sano than 2016 and that Buxton is better than a .210 hitter. and on and on.    Losing begets losing until it doesn't.    The last decade when we won 6 titles plus a game 163 it was a constant theme that the Twins didn't improve enough and that every other team was getting better and that the Twins would eventually have some bad breaks and lose 95 games.   I said if they kept saying that year after year of course eventually they would be right.    Same holds true the other way.     If I say   12 of the 25 on the roster will have good years and I say it every year eventually it will come true.     I still believe this team has more talent than the 2015 team when 8 guys actually played well and they had a winning record.    Berrios, Gonsalves, are not interchangeable.    Good Hughes is nothing like bad Hughes.   Gibson is not the same every game much less every season.   

[Mike Sixel]

I'd be happy if they got 2010 Hughes, not being greedy....

[jimmer]

 

I'd be happy if they got 2010 Hughes, not being greedy....

or even better, 2009.

[bluechipper]

 

I keep hearing this line repeated but I don't see how it matters when the replacements are far from sure things to do any better. It's tantamount to swapping deck chairs on the Titanic. Santiago, Berrios, Duffey (obvious injury fill-in candidate), May, Hughes, Mejia, and Gonsalves could all easily get rotation time this year and replicate those 59 starts. God forbid if Ervin goes down or yo-yos back to Bad Santa(na), now you're really talking trouble. There are so many more paths to being terrible again than there are paths to notable improvement. And currently there are no paths to getting above average in the next couple of years, barring major trades or free agent acquisitions.

Here's one path to getting better: have more than 1 starter be better than completely awful. I think that's doable.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Topic Missed: The Grass was not greener on the other side

Falvey and Lavine fail to make improvements to the organization as a whole. The Twins lose all sense of identity they had not already lost with nothing positive to replace it and the death spiral leads to contraction. Target field sits empty for three years until a failing Florida team is relocated to "Greener Pastures"

Hmmm, Minnesota Marlins maybe? Hey, if the Lakers can move to LA, why not?

 

Seriously though, this franchise is at risk of becoming an after thought. Takes a long time and a lot of winning to get the casual fans to come back.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I think you missed one more thing.  The Twins don't really have a clubhouse leader - that Michael Cuddyer/Tori Hunter kind of player that keeps it loose in the dugout but at the same time plays with intensity.  That is needed for a team to be successful.  Without that, you lose 100+games.  Unless Castro is that guy, we still don't really have a clubhouse leader.

I agree, but it's incredibly frustrating that Molitor and/or Mauer can't handle that task. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Topic Missed: The Grass was not greener on the other side

Falvey and Lavine fail to make improvements to the organization as a whole. The Twins lose all sense of identity they had not already lost with nothing positive to replace it and the death spiral leads to contraction. Target field sits empty for three years until a failing Florida team is relocated to "Greener Pastures"

 

Better yet, move the Rays up here and we'll rename them the Minnesota Green Pastures  

[Taildragger8791]

Hmmm, Minnesota Marlins maybe? Hey, if the Lakers can move to LA, why not?

 

Seriously though, this franchise is at risk of becoming an after thought. Takes a long time and a lot of winning to get the casual fans to come back.

I think the fans would come back quickly if this core takes off and they get enough pitching to climb over .500. I only moved to the Cities last year but I'd love to get a 40 game season package if they were competitive. Until then I'll just buy $15 seats on StubHub and sneak down past sleeping ushers when I feel like going.

[IndianaTwin]

How about this one -- sign me!

 

For the league minimum, I'll gladly be the 4th outfielder and endure the wrath of Twins Daily posters.

[tobi0040]

Great article. I have thought of most of these things individually, but it was great to see them all together.

 

The flip side would be what would have to happen for the 2017 Twins to contend. That would also be a good article and IMO, so many things would have to break right. Those two perspectives together firm my belief that we missed the boat on Dozier.

[tvagle]

Maybe losing another 100 wouldn't be so bad...

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/high-school/triston-casas-reclassifies-2018/#kYMge0TwWZqyzqFh.97

 

“His approach and feel for the strike zone is very advanced and his well above average raw power is as playable as any 16-year-old prospect I have seen since Bryce Harper.”

 

#BellengerWho

[Darius]

It won't be that difficult for them to lose 100 games:

 

A culture of losing is ingrained in most of the players, there is a poor infield defense, bad starting pitching, a bad bullpen, and loads of inconsistent strikeout/slump-prone hitters.

 

Also, Mauer, Buxton, and Sano....possibly the 3 most valuable line-up cogs (outside of Dozier), haven't been the most injury averse.....or very good, for the better part of the last year.

 

Ervin Santana is getting old and has a billion innings, and Hughes is no guarantee to come back. Are Gibson and Berrios able to anchor a rotation by themselves?

 

Some seem convinced that 2016 was an outlier for this roster. I'm not convinced of that.

Edited January 27, 2017 by Darius