Article: Moving Dozier Needs to Include Creativity

[DocBauer]

Nice write up, and I'm more than willing to be creative and even take back salary. We have the means to do it, and might even end up with a surprise.

 

But I am still perplexed by the random thoughts and reports in any potential deal. Yes, it's fair to quibble and argue over Dozier's ultimate worth. But it's not as though the Dodgers have 3 top 2B with equal ability and trade worth at their trade fingertips.

 

JDL is a fine prosect. So might be Alvarez. But Alvarez us still an A ball prosect despite potential. Would you feel Berries and Romeo would be enough to acquire one if the top 2B in the game if the shoe was on the other foot and it was the Twins needing a player to put them over the top? (Closest approximation I can come up with)

 

I just don't feel the Twins are being unreasonable in asking fir a quality 3rd prospect to make this deal happen.

[Doomtints]

 

But Alvarez us still an A ball prosect despite potential.

 

That's right. Until he plays long seasons at A and above, we won't know if he can keep fireballing as a starter over the course of a full season. It's very likely that he can't and ends up in the bullpen unless he proves to be effective with less velocity on his fastball. 

Edited January 1, 2017 by Doomtints

[DaveW]

Yeah that's the whole thing, Alvarez is still a real long ways from being a cant miss prospect.

Just like Kohl Stewart was when we drafted him for instance...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Great subject Jeremy.

 

Puig seems to be on the outs, I wonder if some salary relief could be a part of the trade, possibly w/ a third team

[CiabanItReal]

 

Great subject Jeremy.

Puig seems to be on the outs, I wonder if some salary relief could be a part of the trade, possibly w/ a third team

IDK with the problems they had vs LHP last year, trading Puig to get Dozier doesn't really solve the problem, just sort of shifts it from 2nd to the OF.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Yeah that's the whole thing, Alvarez is still a real long ways from being a cant miss prospect.

Just like Kohl Stewart was when we drafted him for instance...

Alvarez dominated in low A and Rookie. Stewart was very good at the same levels, but not amazing. That combined with Alvarez's better raw stuff, makes a big difference in their respective values at that point. 

 

Alvarez in low A and R: 12.3 K/9, 3.2BB/9, 0.15 HR/9, 2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP.

Stewart in low A and R: 7.2 K/9, 2.4BB/9, 0.34 HR/9, 2.35 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

 

Also, like Stewart, Alvarez induces a lot of ground balls. He is the rare pitcher who seems to have both very good strikeout pitches and induce a lot of ground balls. That's an incredibly powerful combo if it continues as he progresses to higher levels.

 

All that being said, of course Alvarez still has a ton of risk, but Alvarez is a more valuable prospect after his first year than Stewart was.

[Eduardo Nunez's Helmet]

Twins get JDL, Alvarez, Verdugo, Puig, Kazmir

Dodgers get Dozier, Eddie Rosario

 

Get your forks ready, because that's a deal that gets done!

[roger]

JDL is a fine prosect. So might be Alvarez. But Alvarez us still an A ball prosect despite potential. Would you feel Berries and Romeo would be enough to acquire one if the top 2B in the game if the shoe was on the other foot and it was the Twins needing a player to put them over the top? (Closest approximation I can come up with)

 

I doubt JDL and Alvarez are at the same level as Berrios and Romero. Romero has had success a couple levels higher than Alvarez. And Berrios is both younger than JDL and doesn't have the arm/shoulder concerns.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Twins get JDL, Alvarez, Verdugo, Puig, Kazmir

Dodgers get Dozier, Eddie Rosario

 

Get your forks ready, because that's a deal that gets done!

 

I'd make that deal in a heartbeat. I don't think the Dodgers would even consider it. If Falvey/Levine could pull that off, they'd be the real deal.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I doubt JDL and Alvarez are at the same level as Berrios and Romero. Romero has had success a couple levels higher than Alvarez. And Berrios is both younger than JDL and doesn't have the arm/shoulder concerns.

 

I think that is probably a really fair comparison, to be honest. Just my opinion.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Yeah that's the whole thing, Alvarez is still a real long ways from being a cant miss prospect.

Just like Kohl Stewart was when we drafted him for instance...

 

You're never going to find a "can't miss" pitching prospect. 

 

Alvarez would definitely come with more risk than JDL, but he also comes with a Jose Fernandez-type ceiling. And those are risks that are worth taking.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I have often wondered what the dollar value of a prospect is. 

 

If Boston wanted to buy Tyler Jay from the Twins for example. How big a check should the Red Sox write. 

 

I love creativity and I hope the discussions are considering all of this and more. 

 

I also wouldn't mind some 3 or 4 team deal creativity either. 

 

The Diamondbacks traded Bronson Arroyo, who was recovering from TJ, and Touki Toussaint for a no-name prospect. Essentially, the bought Toussaint for the $10.1 million remaining on Arroyo's contract. Arroyo never pitched for them.

 

 

[specialiststeve]

My understanding is that the Twin's really want Bellinger along with Deleon as the main pieces. Want to get creative... send Kirilloff as part of the deal as they get a very good guy that is a few years away.....

 

Deleon, Bellinger, Kasmir, Arruebarrena - Yaisel Sierra

 

for

 

Dozier, Kiriloff, Gibson

 

We get 2 ready made prospects, 2 wildcards, and an old fart that can maybe help us. They get their man at 2nd, Gibson may be salvageable with them and Kiriloff who down the road may be a great get for them. Win/Win.

 

In order to get this done the guys may need to think out of the box....

[specialiststeve]

 

I'd make that deal in a heartbeat. I don't think the Dodgers would even consider it. If Falvey/Levine could pull that off, they'd be the real deal.

 

Twins get JDL, Alvarez, Verdugo, Puig, Kazmir

Dodgers get Dozier, Eddie Rosario

 

Get your forks ready, because that's a deal that gets done!

 

I like your thinking but may need to be adjusted as Dodgers won't do that one....

 

JDL, Alverez, Puig, Kazmir

for

Dozier, Kiriloff, Gibson, Burdi

 

That may be closer....

[jimmer]

Are we pretending Gibson has actual value in a trade to a team like the Dodgers (or any team, really)?

Edited January 2, 2017 by jimmer

[jokin]

 

Are we pretending Gibson has actual value in a trade to a team like the Dodgers (or any team, really)?

 

"Pretending" or wishing? And Burdi has his own set of ???s. Not sure the Dodgers would bite on this deal- even if the Twins substituted Berrios or Santana for Gibson

[Eduardo Nunez's Helmet]

 

I like your thinking but may need to be adjusted as Dodgers won't do that one....

 

JDL, Alverez, Puig, Kazmir

for

Dozier, Kiriloff, Gibson, Burdi

 

That may be closer....

Sold.

[kellyvance]

 

That is still the case, some of the other people around here just like to completely ignore this news that I brought them

Um, Dave, it is not news unless it happens

[nytwinsfan]

As much as I hate to admit it, this is a pretty good analysis:  http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/30/14111094/brian-dozier-twins-mlb-trade-rumors-hot-stove-dodgers-dbacks-second-baseman

 

The Twins' problems are (1) 2nd basemen is such a strong position right now with many good options, and (2) most of the teams that might otherwise want Dozier don't for various reasons (rebuilding or have a quality set option because of (1)). 

 

My position continues to be to hope for the best that DaveW is right and we get De Leon, Alvarez and a third lottery ticket, but we can't assume that is legit, so failing that, Twins should draw the line at De Leon, and someone like Verdugo, Diaz or Buehler.  I might consider Sheffield as a second piece if the third piece is a good lottery ticket (18, 19 yo with some upside but long ways off). I'm not interested in Stewart as a second piece (unless someone like Lux or Will Smith is a third piece, which seems very unlikely). Also not interested in Calhoun, unless he's a third piece with someone like Sheffield or Stewart. Failing one of these deals, If I were Falvey/Levine, I'd say "no."

Edited January 2, 2017 by nytwinsfan

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Are we pretending Gibson has actual value in a trade to a team like the Dodgers (or any team, really)?

is Gibson the new Duensing?

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I don't see why the Dodgers would want Gibson. He's a good option for a rebound year, but not a guy a contending team wants to roll the dice with. They might have interest in Santana. If LA was willing to accept De Leon and Stewart as the main pieces for Dozier, picking up Santana and sending two more that way, it may work. 

 

Just spitballing.... haven't looked at FV or anything like that.

 

Dozer, Santana, perhaps a bullpen arm as well.

 

De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart, Verdugo, and Ruiz.  Perhaps in this scenario we have to take Kazmir's contract... not sure. I've got to think there's a way to make this work.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

"Pretending" or wishing? And Burdi has his own set of ???s. Not sure the Dodgers would bite on this deal- even if the Twins substituted Berrios or Santana for Gibson

And the Dodgers prospects have no ???s  ?

[nicksaviking]

 

yeah, I don't see why the Dodgers would want Gibson. He's a good option for a rebound year, but not a guy a contending team wants to roll the dice with. They might have interest in Santana. If LA was willing to accept De Leon and Stewart as the main pieces for Dozier, picking up Santana and sending two more that way, it may work. 

 

I agree. Now if we're talking about a team like the Pirates, the inexpensive Gibson who has bounceback potential might be of extreme curiosity to them. Team's like the Dodgers tend to value a more certain commodity as price is of less consequence.

[Riverbrian]

 

As much as I hate to admit it, this is a pretty good analysis:  http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/30/14111094/brian-dozier-twins-mlb-trade-rumors-hot-stove-dodgers-dbacks-second-baseman

 

The Twins' problems are (1) 2nd basemen is such a strong position right now with many good options, and (2) most of the teams that might otherwise want Dozier don't for various reasons (rebuilding or have a quality set option because of (1)). 

 

My position continues to be to hope for the best that DaveW is right and we get De Leon, Alvarez and a third lottery ticket, but we can't assume that is legit, so failing that, Twins should draw the line at De Leon, and someone like Verdugo, Diaz or Buehler.  I might consider Sheffield as a second piece if the third piece is a good lottery ticket (18, 19 yo with some upside but long ways off). I'm not interested in Stewart as a second piece (unless someone like Lux or Will Smith is a third piece, which seems very unlikely). Also not interested in Calhoun, unless he's a third piece with someone like Sheffield or Stewart. Failing one of these deals, If I were Falvey/Levine, I'd say "no."

 

It's a good article and I believe that is exactly what Friedman is thinking. 

 

However... I think Friedman will find that those plan B options are not as available as they think they are. Therefore the Dodgers are in the same type of boat as the Twins. 

 

If they can't bring Dozier in... The next option is just as expensive in terms of prospects... or more expensive in terms of contract or... quite a drop off in terms of talent. 

 

If they want RH Power to fill that gaping hole at 2B. Go down the list and watch the options go away one by one. 

 

The 2B market is soft for the seller and the buyer in my opinion. There is pressure on Falvey/Lavine to make a good first trade with their only decent trade chip but there is also pressure on the Dodgers to win and if they don't win and Dozier clubs 35 home runs in another uniform in 2017 it will be a mistake that will be pointed out. 

 

Stay Strong Falvey/Lavine!!! The Twins don't have to settle... Make the Dodgers Settle.  

 

 

[DaveW]

Gibson was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year, he doesn't throw very hard and doesn't strike people out. He doesn't have any real trade value.

[DaveW]

Also when it comes to Gibson it's probably just time to accept the facts:

 

He is a #5 type moving forward. Counting on him for anything more than 4.50 type ERA is wishful thinking.

Edited January 2, 2017 by DaveW

[shs_59]

I'm psyched 

 

If We end up Keeping Brian Dozier going into the 2017 season.

 

He will lead us and our rebuild into greater things, Brighter days ahead.

 

Brian Dozier is absolutely worth 3 to 4 quality players in a trade, we don't get that Screw L.A.

[Brandon]

Without knowing what the Dodgers pen is like. How bout something like this. Dozier, Kintzler, and either Rogers or one of our reliever prospects, for DeLeon, Alvarez,bad contract, and some international cap money.

[drjim]

Without knowing what the Dodgers pen is like. How bout something like this. Dozier, Kintzler, and either Rogers or one of our reliever prospects, for DeLeon, Alvarez,bad contract, and some international cap money.

Strikes me as an unnecessary inclusion of relievers by the Twins.

[BuxtonBandwagon]

http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

 

Here a dodgers writer writes that they could trade Calhoun, JDL, and Stewart or

Sheffield for Dozier and Kintzler. He makes it seem like Kintzler has some value. This seems like a reasonable trade.