Article: Moving Dozier Needs to Include Creativity

[drjim]

Kintzler has some value and Dodgers are looking for a cheap reliever.

 

I would include him if it firmed up a third piece in addition to JDL and Alvarez.

[nicksaviking]

 

Gibson was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year, he doesn't throw very hard and doesn't strike people out. He doesn't have any real trade value.

 

Both of those are because of his sinker usage. He gets plenty of swings and misses on his change and slider; if only he'd use them to put guys away.

 

But I agree, no GM would give the Twins value for him based on what he could do if he pitched correctly. He'll have to pitch correctly and show results first to gain any value.

[nicksaviking]

 

http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

 

Here a dodgers writer writes that they could trade Calhoun, JDL, and Stewart or

Sheffield for Dozier and Kintzler. He makes it seem like Kintzler has some value. This seems like a reasonable trade.

 

I'm more than willing to include Kintzler to gain any kind of increased return.

 

But after two consecutive posts denouncing it I should probably come clean and admit that I'm unreasonably in favor of banning the sinker from the Twins clubhouse.

[Thrylos]

Agree about the need for creativity.  The Dodgers need to shed payroll after 2017, so the Twins can be creative with that part.

 

I do not want another 33 year old pitcher.  Makes zero sense for a rebuilding team; however, I'd like to see if the Dodgers would be interested in swapping LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (30 years old, under contract for both 2017 & 2018 for $7.8M each) for Hector Santiago (29, last year of arbitration, FA after 2017).  Also would the Dodgers be interested in flipping Puig  (26, 2 years of control at $8.2M and $9.2M) for Grossman (27, 4 years of control, last pre-arbritration year).   This way it looks like $16M and $17M off the books for the Dodgers for the next couple seasons.  

 

Another guy I like from the Dodgers is 28 year old Pedro Báez who is under club control for 4 years and has closer material, but the Dodgers already have a closer.

 

So I would not mind seeing:

 

Dozier + Santiago + Grossman for DeLeon + Ryu + Puig + Báez with no $ exchanging hands. 

 

I am just afraid that Dozier will return to the player we know next season.  The Twins have just to sell high...

Edited January 2, 2017 by Thrylos

[jimmer]

Between Kendrick, Ethier, Guerrero and Crawford, I think the Dodgers shed around 50M after 2017 season. Then another 23M after the 2018 season when AGone is gone.

Edited January 2, 2017 by jimmer

[doscinco]

Between Kendrick, Ethier, Guerrero and Crawford, I think the Dodgers shed around 50M after 2017 season. Then another 23M after the 2018 season when AGone is gone.

Ryu too

[drjim]

Agree about the need for creativity. The Dodgers need to shed payroll after 2017, so the Twins can be creative with that part.

 

I do not want another 33 year old pitcher. Makes zero sense for a rebuilding team; however, I'd like to see if the Dodgers would be interested in swapping LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (30 years old, under contract for both 2017 & 2018 for $7.8M each) for Hector Santiago (29, last year of arbitration, FA after 2017). Also would the Dodgers be interested in flipping Puig (26, 2 years of control at $8.2M and $9.2M) for Grossman (27, 4 years of control, last pre-arbritration year). This way it looks like $16M and $17M off the books for the Dodgers for the next couple seasons.

 

Another guy I like from the Dodgers is 28 year old Pedro Báez who is under club control for 4 years and has closer material, but the Dodgers already have a closer.

 

So I would not mind seeing:

 

Dozier + Santiago + Grossman for DeLeon + Ryu + Puig + Báez with no $ exchanging hands.

 

I am just afraid that Dozier will return to the player we know next season. The Twins have just to sell high...

I think they are trying to add a reliever, not trade away.

 

And watching Baez pitch will make you want to gouge your eyes out. Can't imagine would it would be like with him as a closer.

[doscinco]

Pedro Baez might be tough to watch and meh as a pitcher, but he'd easily be the Twins best reliever. With 4 years of control, that's valuable for a team like the Twins.

Edited January 2, 2017 by doscinco

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

Agree about the need for creativity.  The Dodgers need to shed payroll after 2017, so the Twins can be creative with that part.

 

I do not want another 33 year old pitcher.  Makes zero sense for a rebuilding team; however, I'd like to see if the Dodgers would be interested in swapping LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (30 years old, under contract for both 2017 & 2018 for $7.8M each) for Hector Santiago (29, last year of arbitration, FA after 2017).  Also would the Dodgers be interested in flipping Puig  (26, 2 years of control at $8.2M and $9.2M) for Grossman (27, 4 years of control, last pre-arbritration year).   This way it looks like $16M and $17M off the books for the Dodgers for the next couple seasons.  

 

Another guy I like from the Dodgers is 28 year old Pedro Báez who is under club control for 4 years and has closer material, but the Dodgers already have a closer.

 

So I would not mind seeing:

 

Dozier + Santiago + Grossman for DeLeon + Ryu + Puig + Báez with no $ exchanging hands. 

 

I am just afraid that Dozier will return to the player we know next season.  The Twins have just to sell high...

Really good thought on this one. It seems far fetched but I like the idea of swapping Santiago for Ryu and love the idea of Grossman for Puig, this is assuming hopefully the Dodgers wanna get rid of Puig which could be likely. But like other posts said I don't think the Dodgers wanna get rid of bullpen pitching.

So maybe this is a little better,

Dozier, Santiago, Grossman, Kintzler

for

JDL, Ryu, Puig, Stewart or Buehler, and Calhoun(just cuz it seems like the dodgers fan seem very willing to get rid of him)

This is all very unlikely as trades like this never go down and there is a lot of stuff to work through, but its fun to think about!

[kellyvance]

Would you have traded Harmon Killebrew for a possible back end starter that has never won in the Bigs in 1965?

 

Didn't think so.

 

Dozier has OF/1B/3B power as a decent middle infielder. He gets two possible "soon to  right now" starters or we bat him 3rd all next year.

[Thrylos]

 

Would you have traded Harmon Killebrew for a possible back end starter that has never won in the Bigs in 1965?

 

Didn't think so.

 

Dozier has OF/1B/3B power as a decent middle infielder. He gets two possible "soon to  right now" starters or we bat him 3rd all next year.

 

 

Harmon Killebrew and Brian Dozier do not belong in the same area code...

[Otto von Ballpark]

Would you have traded Harmon Killebrew for a possible back end starter that has never won in the Bigs in 1965?

 

Didn't think so.

 

Dozier has OF/1B/3B power as a decent middle infielder. He gets two possible "soon to right now" starters or we bat him 3rd all next year.

The 1964 Twins didn't lose 103 games. In fact, while they only won 79, they were coming off consecutive 91 win seasons in 1962-63 so they very much expected to contend in 1965.

 

Killebrew had a career 142 OPS+ at that point. Dozier's is 108. His 137 last year represented a career high. Through 1964, Killebrew was on a steak of 6 consecutive seasons at or above that mark.

 

Due to the rules at the time,

Killebrew's playing rights were the permanent property of the Twins, on year to year contracts at a salary essentially of the teams choosing (just enough to keep him from holding out or retiring). Dozier is guaranteed $15 mil for the next two seasons thanks to arbitration rights which did not exist for Killebrew, after which he is guaranteed free agency, another right which obviously did not exist for Killebrew (and indeed would not come to MLB until after Killebrew retired).

 

I will also keep in mind your description of a top ~10 MLB pitching prospect as "a possible back end starter that has never won in the Bigs" for the next time the Twins have such a player. Something tells me you won't be so dismissive of the asset when it belongs to your club...

[darin617]

 

http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

 

Here a dodgers writer writes that they could trade Calhoun, JDL, and Stewart or

Sheffield for Dozier and Kintzler. He makes it seem like Kintzler has some value. This seems like a reasonable trade.

 

This means Alvarez would be on the table like Dave said in the first place. Calhoun is technically a higher rated prospect.

[darin617]

 

Kintzler has some value and Dodgers are looking for a cheap reliever.

I would include him if it firmed up a third piece in addition to JDL and Alvarez.

 

So add Kintzler to deal and then maybe sign Sergio Romo or someone else to close because I don't know what to expect from Perkins.

[drjim]

So add Kintzler to deal and then maybe sign Sergio Romo or someone else to close because I don't know what to expect from Perkins.

I would sign at least one vet reliever either way, but would certainly get behind Romo.

 

Feliz has been mentioned, I like Casilla, and Holland could be that guy too. Probably a few others as well.

 

Anyone with upside or looking to reestablish value as a closer, on a one or two year deal, that could get flipped at the deadline.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This means Alvarez would be on the table like Dave said in the first place. Calhoun is technically a higher rated prospect.

Depends on the source. Certainly not at Fangraphs. Also "higher rated" doesn't necessarily mean more valuable, depending on the context. Ceiling might be more valuable to some teams/situations than floor. Alvarez in particular seems to have a much higher ceiling, while Calhoun would have the higher floor.

[Old Twins Cap]

Killebrew and Dozier may not be good comps in terms of lifetime stats, or F-wars, but I tell you what:

 

I saw Killebrew play, and not many people realize he was only 5'11'.  How tall is Dozier?

 

And, really, if you watch their swings, what stands out is the twist in the lower torso.  Not a lot of movement, but sudden twist at the end, and of course, the strong top-hand.  Pull, pull, pull.  Out of the park to left-field, high and long and deep.

 

I've been saying it for awhile, so I will say it again:  Dozier's closest cousin on the Twins' club's long player list is Harmon Killebrew.  And sure enough, he is the next player after Killer to crush 40HRs.

 

You don't trade that for some jazzy LA maybe's.  Not ever.

[jimmer]

 

Killebrew and Dozier may not be good comps in terms of lifetime stats, or F-wars, but I tell you what:

 

I saw Killebrew play, and not many people realize he was only 5'11'.  How tall is Dozier?

 

And, really, if you watch their swings, what stands out is the twist in the lower torso.  Not a lot of movement, but sudden twist at the end, and of course, the strong top-hand.  Pull, pull, pull.  Out of the park to left-field, high and long and deep.

 

I've been saying it for awhile, so I will say it again:  Dozier's closest cousin on the Twins' club's long player list is Harmon Killebrew.  And sure enough, he is the next player after Killer to crush 40HRs.

 

You don't trade that for some jazzy LA maybe's.  Not ever.

A much better idea to see him leave after two seasons and get nothing.

 

And Dozier isn't close to what Killebrew was.  Dozier is 30 early into next season and has had one season with a wRC+ over 120.

 

Killebrew was 23 when he had his first season with a wRC+ over 120 and then he had 13 more in a row. All 14 of those seasons, Harmon had a higher wRC+ than Dozier just did in his career year. In fact, Harmon's career wRC+ is 10 points higher than Dozier's was during his career season.

Edited January 3, 2017 by jimmer

[Old Twins Cap]

 

A much better idea to see him leave after two seasons and get nothing.

 

And Dozier isn't close to what Killebrew was.  Dozier is 30 early into next season and has had one season with a wRC+ over 120.

 

Killebrew was 23 when he had his first season with a wRC+ over 120 and then he had 13 more in a row. All 14 of those seasons, Harmon had a higher wRC+ than Dozier just did in his career year. In fact, Harmon's career wRC+ is 10 points higher than Dozier's was during his career season.

 

Yeah, I get that, which is why I said at the beginning:  They are not good comps in terms of stats.

 

I'm talking physical, statuesque, RH swingers who pull the ball.  That's all. 

 

They don't grow on trees, with the strong top-hand.  If Dozier could hit homers with men on base, bat fourth, and play first base, I'd call him Killer to my friends.

[DocBauer]

Both of those are because of his sinker usage. He gets plenty of swings and misses on his change and slider; if only he'd use them to put guys away.

 

But I agree, no GM would give the Twins value for him based on what he could do if he pitched correctly. He'll have to pitch correctly and show results first to gain any value.

Personally, I think Gibson gets a bad rap because of his down...and injury plagued...2016. For the two seasons before he was solid and showed improvement from '14 to '15. I would fully expect, at this time, to see a different and healthy Gibson in 2017 that looks like the '15 version, perhaps even better. But I sometimes feel like he doesn't trust himself or his stuff. If you remember many years ago, Viola had a problem of nibbling too much. Despite not having tremendous heat or big time SO potential, Viola was suddenly convinced that he was indeed a power pitcher, and not a "crafty" LH and needed to trust his stuff.

 

Now, I'm not saying Gibson is another Viola waiting to happen at all. But whether he doesn't trust the players behind him, or his own stuff, I feel he just doesn't attack the zone and ends up nibbling too much, trying to be perfect.

[jimmer]

After the 2015 season, I pointed out in here that I had thought Gibson had gotten worse compared to how he did in 2014 and I highly recommended trading him while he still might have some value and we could get some sucker to take him off our hands. I had him and Rosario as the players who would disappoint the most based on some people's expectations.

 

And then 2016 happened and now we are stuck with him (until/unless the FO does a Plouffe on him next offseason).

Edited January 3, 2017 by jimmer

[jorgenswest]

I think there is a reasonable chance (~30%) that Gibson has a better ERA than Santana next year. He was better in 2015, their xFIPs were 0.29 apart last year and I think Castro will have more influence on Gibson's performance. It is likely Santana will move towards his xFIP and possible Gibson towards his 2015 line. Santana still should have the edge as he will go deeper in games and pitch more innings but their projections will probably be close.

[AZTwin]

According to who?

All the prospect lists. Baseball America. MLB.com. Etc. That's why I always laugh when they say he's "x" on this and this prospect list. They are useless. Calhoun is trash

[nytwinsfan]

 

All the prospect lists. Baseball America. MLB.com. Etc. That's why I always laugh when they say he's "x" on this and this prospect list. They are useless. Calhoun is trash

Not sure he's "trash," but I definitely agree he is very overrated.

[jimmer]

 

Not sure he's "trash," but I definitely agree he is very overrated.

Some sites ranks guys higher when they are closer to the majors (like MLB.COM).

 

Baseball America (along with many sites) haven't even released their pre-2017 listings yet (I think it's good to wait to quote sites rankings after they take into account what the players did in 2016), but post 2016 season, Fangraphs has him #6 Dodgers prospect and Alvarez #1. 

Edited January 3, 2017 by jimmer

[kellyvance]

 

Killebrew and Dozier may not be good comps in terms of lifetime stats, or F-wars, but I tell you what:

 

I saw Killebrew play, and not many people realize he was only 5'11'.  How tall is Dozier?

 

And, really, if you watch their swings, what stands out is the twist in the lower torso.  Not a lot of movement, but sudden twist at the end, and of course, the strong top-hand.  Pull, pull, pull.  Out of the park to left-field, high and long and deep.

 

I've been saying it for awhile, so I will say it again:  Dozier's closest cousin on the Twins' club's long player list is Harmon Killebrew.  And sure enough, he is the next player after Killer to crush 40HRs.

 

You don't trade that for some jazzy LA maybe's.  Not ever.

Which is my point. 40 HR hitters are extremely rare these days. You see a lot of people who want to trade for a couple unprovens. I don't think so.  If the Twins had a couple other HR guys, maybe we could afford to lose  power. Thing is, the Twins should not be batting their best power producer leadoff, and one of their least powerful bats third. Its bass ackwards. 

[kellyvance]

 

The 1964 Twins didn't lose 103 games. In fact, while they only won 79, they were coming off consecutive 91 win seasons in 1962-63 so they very much expected to contend in 1965.

Killebrew had a career 142 OPS+ at that point. Dozier's is 108. His 137 last year represented a career high. Through 1964, Killebrew was on a steak of 6 consecutive seasons at or above that mark.

Due to the rules at the time,
Killebrew's playing rights were the permanent property of the Twins, on year to year contracts at a salary essentially of the teams choosing (just enough to keep him from holding out or retiring). Dozier is guaranteed $15 mil for the next two seasons thanks to arbitration rights which did not exist for Killebrew, after which he is guaranteed free agency, another right which obviously did not exist for Killebrew (and indeed would not come to MLB until after Killebrew retired).

I will also keep in mind your description of a top ~10 MLB pitching prospect as "a possible back end starter that has never won in the Bigs" for the next time the Twins have such a player. Something tells me you won't be so dismissive of the asset when it belongs to your club...

Much of your reply misses my point completely.  40 HR guys are extremely rare. Unlike Killer, Doze can play defense and run. He is a 5 tool infielder. 

 

Prospects mean the same as potential. "You ain't done anything yet"

 

And it doesn't matter what Brew's era in baseball was like. My point is you don't trade a top player in all of baseball for a bag of magic beans.

[Mike Sixel]

Oddly, teams can't deal International money until after July 2.....not sure how they get around that, frankly. And yes, that should be part of the deal, 100%, imo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Much of your reply misses my point completely.  40 HR guys are extremely rare. Unlike Killer, Doze can play defense and run. He is a 5 tool infielder. 

 

Prospects mean the same as potential. "You ain't done anything yet"

 

And it doesn't matter what Brew's era in baseball was like. My point is you don't trade a top player in all of baseball for a bag of magic beans.

40 HR guys are so rare, Dozier himself has done it only once in four full seasons!  Actually that was his only time breaking the 30 HR mark too.

 

The point about Killebrew's era is that, even if Dozier is a true 40 HR, 5 tool infielder, he's gone from Minnesota in 2 years anyway (or very expensive if we manage to keep him).  That was never a consideration for the Twins about Killebrew.  Plus, the Twins of that era were never as bad as the 2016 team, meaning their outlook for contention was generally much better than that of the 2017-2018 Twins.

 

If Dozier was cheaply controlled in perpetuity like Killebrew was, or if the Twins were coming off even a .500-ish season in 2016, I guarantee we wouldn't be discussing a potential trade much if at all.  This isn't about Dozier's performance as much as it is about the Twins and his pending free agency.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Oddly, teams can't deal International money until after July 2.....not sure how they get around that, frankly.

I think trades have 6 months to be fully settled if they involve PTBNL or cash considerations.  So a deal consummated now could include considerations decided on July 2nd.