Article: Pondering A Plan For Jorge Polanco

[DocBauer]

BTW, if we could just create our own scenario, I'd rather put Dozier at 1B with Mauer retired or turned in to a bench/role player, Polanco at 2B, Escobar or acquisition at SS and Sano at 3B

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Let me tell you, I have been researching the free agent market for the Offseason Handbook and the shortstop crop is beyond brutal. Erick Aybar is probably going to be the top name. For real. I'll take Ed Escobar.

ouch! I look forward to the handbook, regardless of the FA SS report

[USAFChief]

One thing I agree on...Dozier cannot play anywhere on the left side. He does not have the arm. That was a primary reason they moved him off SS in the first place, and his arm has gotten worse.

[Tomj14]

Honest question, all of you that want to trade Dozier, what are you expecting realistically in return?

a 28 year old pitcher with a lifetime era 3.84?

Somebody like Dylan Bundy or Shelby Miller?

or just more pitching prospects like we have?

or a top pitching prospect like Alex Reyes, Tyler Glasnow, Lucas Giolito?

Would you be happy in a Dozier for Tyler Jay trade?

 

I think sometimes people just like the unknown more.

(the 28 old pitcher mentioned about is Hector Santiago)

 

I would trade him but if it was for prospects the best of them would have to be in at least AA and a few below with crazy high ceilings.

 

[Tomj14]

 

Individual players don't sell tickets, not Brian Dozier. How many less people buy tickets if they trade him? 50? 100? 1000 (no way)?

Agreed, but if they trade are only 40 homer in about a half century for a bunch of minor leaguers that won't be here for a few years, it will cause people to not buy tickets, if there are any still willing to buy.

We have traded a All stars before Frankie V and Johan and gotten back of bunch of crap, if they trade him they need to bring in somebody that steps up right away.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Honest question, all of you that want to trade Dozier, what are you expecting realistically in return?

a 28 year old pitcher with a lifetime era 3.84?

Somebody like Dylan Bundy or Shelby Miller?

or just more pitching prospects like we have?

or a top pitching prospect like Alex Reyes, Tyler Glasnow, Lucas Giolito?

Would you be happy in a Dozier for Tyler Jay trade?

 

I think sometimes people just like the unknown more.

(the 28 old pitcher mentioned about is Hector Santiago)

 

I would trade him but if it was for prospects the best of them would have to be in at least AA and a few below with crazy high ceilings.

 Prospects, or at least one good prospect who is on the cusp who is AA/AAA. Because the Twins are rebuilding, I would not want a 28, or 25 year old pitcher who has already had time in the majors. The exception would be someone like Chris Archer, but Tampa isn't giving him up.

[Platoon]

Agreed, but if they trade are only 40 homer in about a half century for a bunch of minor leaguers that won't be here for a few years, it will cause people to not buy tickets, if there are any still willing to buy.

We have traded a All stars before Frankie V and Johan and gotten back of bunch of crap, if they trade him they need to bring in somebody that steps up right away.

. While there certainly will be people who buy tickets based on a certain player, Dozier, Hunter, et al, the reason to keep or trade a player is what will he do for you in the future, and will the trade make you a better team or not. The reality is if you win, you sell tickets, and if you lose, even with a player who once hit 40 HR's you don't. Doziers future should be decided on the basis of whether his presence, or trade helps the team win long term.

[jorgenswest]

Solid offense doesn't do a good job of making up for poor defense up the middle. There are just too many opportunities for lack of range, poor feed on the double play and errors to occur at those spots. When that happens innings are extended, pitch counts are extended and bullpens are overused. The burden on the pitching staff of poor defense at key defensive positions takes a toll in places beyond a player's defensive ranking.

 

I still do think it is possible that the Twins find a way to play Polanco at SS. They need to mare than make up for his deficit at catcher and center field in order to play him. Buxton should be the starting CF all year. They need a real back up plan that can actually be a plus glove in CF though. Santana is not an option. Rosario and Kepler are not options for any long term play in CF. The combination of any of those three and Polanco would be a losing one. If they want to play Polanco, they need a catcher who can contribute more outs stopping the running game. They need a catcher with receiving skills that is on the plus side of framing strikes. A handful of extra pitches every game will lead to more innings from the starters. It is not a matter of just raw count either. Getting that extra strike in any at bat is going to shorten the entire at bat. Starting 1-2 vs 2-1 or 0-1 vs 1-0 will force the batter to be more aggressive and swing at pitches outside the zone. The Twins don't have that catcher ready for next year. It isn't going to be Centeno. It isn't going to be Garver. I don't know if Murphy can be that framer. For his career, he is a plus. He isn't going to contribute outs in the running game.

 

Want to start Polanco? Find a defense first catcher (no bat required) and back him up with Murphy. Do you like the possibility of Garver's bat at catcher? Find a defense first SS and see if Garver can be ready by June. Want to give up a lot of runs and burden the bullpen? Play Suzuki, Polanco and Rosario(or Santana) at the key up the middle spots.

[operation mindcrime]

Field ground balls all winter!

[HitInAPinch]

 

My Choice would be starting utility. 

 

He plays whatever position we need that day. 

 

Give him the chance to perform... Have an option ready in case he doesn't perform. 

Same here.  I don't really understand the rush.  We've got 2 serviceable guys and a bunch of young players all around.  I think the Twins played Polanco a lot at SS last season as a 'wish and a prayer' that he could keep the job.  IDK.

 

Keeping Polanco in the MLB in 2017 is the right move.  Who knows;  at this point he may be a super sub. 

 

Or we could start over with a fresh bowl:  http://www.factslides.com/imgs/i48.jpg

[tobi0040]

Dozier has to be traded. Stick Jorge at 2b.

[Eris]

This article made me feel quite depressed for the following reasons.  Polanco is one of the Twins more consistent young hitters.  Jorge Polanco was first placed on the Twins 40 man roster in the fall of 2013 and was ranked in the top 100 MLB prospects in 2016 (97th after Buxton, Kepler and Gordon as position players).  He was signed in 2009 and the Twins as an organization have invested 7 years into his development.  The Twins finished in last in all of MLB by about 10 games and yet we don't really have a place on the roster for Polanco because his defense is questionable.  The good news is that he is only 23.  However, it seems to me that the Twins should have resolved this situation years ago.  Resolution has many forms. Accept his defensive shortcomings and play him at SS (but he played 2B most recently in the minors).  Trade Dozier, Trade Polanco.  But the Twins organization did none of these.  It indicates an extreme lack of planning in player development in the organization.

[cjj td]

 

 

BTW, if we could just create our own scenario, I'd rather put Dozier at 1B with Mauer retired or turned in to a bench/role player, Polanco at 2B, Escobar or acquisition at SS and Sano at 3B

Mauer/Vargas DH platoon.

[Rosterman]

Right now, no one needs to trade for a Minnesota Twin player. Period. The Twins will ask for the moon for the couple that have possible worth (salary, experience = Dozier, Ervin Santana). Anyone else, they can find equally substantial candidates pretty much anywheres for a fraction of the cost.The Twins are a mess. Players will slump again (as many do in their second year). The Twins have to think and play and trust longterm in their system. Period. They do have to make some decisions on where guys are playing, and start doing it early and getting a depth chart (realistic) going instead of experimenting.

[Champuckett]

I can feel the grain of TD land as I type each letter but screw it, here we go:

 

One thing to consider that I haven't seen many people mention is that there is no guarantee Polanco maintains his rookie season offensive stats and/or his fielding continues to be a sore spot in his game.

 

I'm sure I sound like Mr. Obvious with that statement, but if you haven't noticed the certainty when discussing this, that there is no doubt Polanco will pull through for us next year and in the future, then maybe some of this should be pointed out. We have seen both Danny Santana and Danny Valencia in recent years take a plunge in their 2nd season. You could make an argument for Sano as well. A big reason for trading Dozier since the most recent trade discussions began is "well, we have Polanco to be an adequate replacement for Dozier at 2B." That's a pretty large assumption and it is one of the most common arguments for both trading Dozier and for placing Polanco at 2B.

 

If we do trade Dozier and Polanco does fill in his spot and he thrives at the position, awesome, everything worked out the way we were hoping. I'm sure that's a risk most here are willing to take and I wouldn't blame anyone for taking it, but we have to remember it is a risk and not a guarantee.

[jimmer]

Some ways Polanco's 2016 season differed from Santana's 2014 season.  

 

Polanco's BABIP was like 80 points lower than Santana's and within 4 points of what his professional BABIP is.  His K rate was quite a bit lower than Santana's and his walk rate was higher.  And it's not like Polanco's offense was through the roof, either. He had a wRC+ of 101.  In other words, nothing seems fluky about his offensive production.  Nothing screams outs as unsustainable.

 

Not to say he won't crash and burn, but I see little comparison to Santana's 2014.

Edited October 18, 2016 by jimmer

[ashbury]

The difference between Polanco and DSan, making one not a very good comp for the other, is that Polanco was playing full-time at single-A at age 19, and acquitting himself very well at the plate. His progression up the minor league chain was consistent. Santana hit less well, at one year older, at single-A, and his progression was likewise consistent. At young ages, such differences are huge, unless you disbelieve their birth certificates.

 

Of course you have to have a Plan B on the 40-man roster to cover for Polanco, if you decide to trade Dozier. All kind of surprises can occur. That doesn't mean taking the most pessimistic view on him.

[wsnydes]

 

Agreed, but if they trade are only 40 homer in about a half century for a bunch of minor leaguers that won't be here for a few years, it will cause people to not buy tickets, if there are any still willing to buy.

We have traded a All stars before Frankie V and Johan and gotten back of bunch of crap, if they trade him they need to bring in somebody that steps up right away.

I tend to agree with your last sentence, but having the only 40 HR hitting player in half a century provided neither wins nor butts in seats.  The attendance impact of trading Dozier would likely be a positive one if what they acquire nets them a return that helps win more games.  I don't really see how attendance would get worse based on Dozier's presence, or lack thereof, alone.  

[Tomj14]

 

 Prospects, or at least one good prospect who is on the cusp who is AA/AAA. Because the Twins are rebuilding, I would not want a 28, or 25 year old pitcher who has already had time in the majors. The exception would be someone like Chris Archer, but Tampa isn't giving him up.

so we trade Dozier for Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey?

 

what does on the cup of AA/AAA mean? Is that Kohl Stewart, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jay, Fernando Romero, Randy Rosario,Stephen Gonsalves, Adalberto Mejia, Jose Berrios?

 

Is that the kind of players you are talking about? Lets say those were the prospects from a team that needed a second baseman, what would it take to trade Dozier to them?

(for me it would have to be Berrios, and two more of them)

Edited October 19, 2016 by Tomj14

[Mike Sixel]

 

so we trade Dozier for Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey?

 

what does on the cup of AA/AAA mean? Is that Kohl Stewart, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jay, Fernando Romero, Randy Rosario,Stephen Gonsalves, Adalberto Mejia, Jose Berrios?

 

Is that the kind of players you are talking about? Lets say those were the prospects from a team that needed a second baseman, what would it take to trade Dozier to them?

(for me it would have to be Berrios, and two more of them)

 

I would trade Dozier for 2 SPs in AA that are in the top 50-60 of prospects, yes. Not that you asked me....

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

This article made me feel quite depressed for the following reasons.  Polanco is one of the Twins more consistent young hitters.  Jorge Polanco was first placed on the Twins 40 man roster in the fall of 2013 and was ranked in the top 100 MLB prospects in 2016 (97th after Buxton, Kepler and Gordon as position players).  He was signed in 2009 and the Twins as an organization have invested 7 years into his development.  The Twins finished in last in all of MLB by about 10 games and yet we don't really have a place on the roster for Polanco because his defense is questionable.  The good news is that he is only 23.  However, it seems to me that the Twins should have resolved this situation years ago.  Resolution has many forms. Accept his defensive shortcomings and play him at SS (but he played 2B most recently in the minors).  Trade Dozier, Trade Polanco.  But the Twins organization did none of these.  It indicates an extreme lack of planning in player development in the organization.

Pro's/con's to starting a dudes clock early, through 40-man or any other way. It is obviously bad, if whatever clock is started too early and you are not getting any production during the cheap years. It is also bad if the player starts to blossom too much right before arb/FA eligible. You are not getting enough cheap production and having to either pay too much to keep or lose the player. 

 

Good, its possible a player could not really produce enough early, and then be talked into a cheap extension, and then blossom while being in prime....like Dozier kinda.

[Tomj14]

 

I would trade Dozier for 2 SPs in AA that are in the top 50-60 of prospects, yes. Not that you asked me....

I am really asking anybody, it just doesn't seem anybody is realistic on what we could get. I went to MLB prospects (I know there are probably better ones and looked at their top 100 - just pitchers)

I don't see a team that fits what you are looking for.

Lucas Giolite (3) - Wash
Alex Reyes (7) - Stl
Tyler Glasnow (8) - Pit
Anderson Espinoza (13) - SD
Francis Martes (29) - Hou
Jason Groome (30) - Bos
Jose De Leon (32) - LAD
Josh Hader(33) - Mil
Jeff Hoffman (34) - Col
Tyler Jay (35) - MN
Braxton Garrett (36) - Mia
Reynaldo Lopez (37) - Wash
Riley Pint (38) - Col
Brent Honeywell(39) - TB
Sean Newcomb (46) - Atl
Luis Ortiz (51) - Mil
Phil Bickford (53) - Mil
Yohander Mendez (55) - Tex
Robert Stephenson (56) - Cin
Carson Fulmer (57) - ChiW
Kolby Allard (60) - Atl
Brady Aiken (63) - Cle
A.J. Puk (64) - Oak
Matt Manning (65) - Det
Michael Kopech (67) - Bos
Grant Holmes (68) - Oak
Forrest Whitley (69) - Hou
David Paulino (70) - Hou
Mitch Keller (72) - Pit
Erick Fedde (75) - Wash
Sean Reid-Foley (76) - Tor
Ian Anderson (77) - Atl
Justus Sheffield (78) - NYY
Luke Weaver (81) - Stl
Stephen Gonsalves (85) - MN
Mike Soroka (90) - Atl
Yadier Alvarez (91) - LAD
Triston McKenzie (95) - Cle
Dylan Cease (97) - ChiC
Tyler Beede (98) - SF
German Marquez (100) - Col

So our two best trading partners are Atlanta and Milwaukee. (Neither is trading for Dozier)
Next three are Washington , Colorado and Houston, don't need a 2B.
Next is Pittsburgh, maybe they would be willing if they didn't include Glasnow.
Finally you have the Dodgers (32 and 91)

 

Edited October 19, 2016 by Tomj14

[Mr. Brooks]

I am really asking anybody, it just doesn't seem anybody is realistic on what we could get. I went to MLB prospects (I know there are probably better ones and looked at their top 100 - just pitchers)

I don't see a team that fits what you are looking for.

Lucas Giolite (3) - Wash

Alex Reyes (7) - Stl

Tyler Glasnow (8) - Pit

Anderson Espinoza (13) - SD

Francis Martes (29) - Hou

Jason Groome (30) - Bos

Jose De Leon (32) - LAD

Josh Hader(33) - Mil

Jeff Hoffman (34) - Col

Tyler Jay (35) - MN

Braxton Garrett (36) - Mia

Reynaldo Lopez (37) - Wash

Riley Pint (38) - Col

Brent Honeywell(39) - TB

Sean Newcomb (46) - Atl

Luis Ortiz (51) - Mil

Phil Bickford (53) - Mil

Yohander Mendez (55) - Tex

Robert Stephenson (56) - Cin

Carson Fulmer (57) - ChiW

Kolby Allard (60) - Atl

Brady Aiken (63) - Cle

A.J. Puk (64) - Oak

Matt Manning (65) - Det

Michael Kopech (67) - Bos

Grant Holmes (68) - Oak

Forrest Whitley (69) - Hou

David Paulino (70) - Hou

Mitch Keller (72) - Pit

Erick Fedde (75) - Wash

Sean Reid-Foley (76) - Tor

Ian Anderson (77) - Atl

Justus Sheffield (78) - NYY

Luke Weaver (81) - Stl

Stephen Gonsalves (85) - MN

Mike Soroka (90) - Atl

Yadier Alvarez (91) - LAD

Triston McKenzie (95) - Cle

Dylan Cease (97) - ChiC

Tyler Beede (98) - SF

German Marquez (100) - Col

So our two best trading partners are Atlanta and Milwaukee. (Neither is trading for Dozier)

Next three are Washington , Colorado and Houston, don't need a 2B.

Next is Pittsburgh, maybe they would be willing if they didn't include Glasnow.

Finally you have the Dodgers (32 and 91)

I like prospect rankings as much as anyone, but I think they are way overrated sometimes.

These are human beings, being evaluated by other human beings.

 

Dozier was never a top prospect.

Where was Kluber ranked when Cleveland traded for him?

Where were Liriano and Nathan ranked when we traded for them?

 

I won't get too worked up about the rankings, so long as it's the new guy making the call.

It's OK to trust your scouts, and outscout the other team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I am really asking anybody, it just doesn't seem anybody is realistic on what we could get. I went to MLB prospects (I know there are probably better ones and looked at their top 100 - just pitchers)

I don't see a team that fits what you are looking for.

Lucas Giolite (3) - Wash
Alex Reyes (7) - Stl
Tyler Glasnow (8) - Pit
Anderson Espinoza (13) - SD
Francis Martes (29) - Hou
Jason Groome (30) - Bos
Jose De Leon (32) - LAD
Josh Hader(33) - Mil
Jeff Hoffman (34) - Col
Tyler Jay (35) - MN
Braxton Garrett (36) - Mia
Reynaldo Lopez (37) - Wash
Riley Pint (38) - Col
Brent Honeywell(39) - TB
Sean Newcomb (46) - Atl
Luis Ortiz (51) - Mil
Phil Bickford (53) - Mil
Yohander Mendez (55) - Tex
Robert Stephenson (56) - Cin
Carson Fulmer (57) - ChiW
Kolby Allard (60) - Atl
Brady Aiken (63) - Cle
A.J. Puk (64) - Oak
Matt Manning (65) - Det
Michael Kopech (67) - Bos
Grant Holmes (68) - Oak
Forrest Whitley (69) - Hou
David Paulino (70) - Hou
Mitch Keller (72) - Pit
Erick Fedde (75) - Wash
Sean Reid-Foley (76) - Tor
Ian Anderson (77) - Atl
Justus Sheffield (78) - NYY
Luke Weaver (81) - Stl
Stephen Gonsalves (85) - MN
Mike Soroka (90) - Atl
Yadier Alvarez (91) - LAD
Triston McKenzie (95) - Cle
Dylan Cease (97) - ChiC
Tyler Beede (98) - SF
German Marquez (100) - Col

So our two best trading partners are Atlanta and Milwaukee. (Neither is trading for Dozier)
Next three are Washington , Colorado and Houston, don't need a 2B.
Next is Pittsburgh, maybe they would be willing if they didn't include Glasnow.
Finally you have the Dodgers (32 and 91)

 

I never said there was....you asked if I'd trade him for 2 guys in AA that were similar to what the Twins have.....

 

I'd also trade him for a top 50 or pitcher and a catcher and another prospect.

[Tomj14]

 

I like prospect rankings as much as anyone, but I think they are way overrated sometimes.
These are human beings, being evaluated by other human beings.

Dozier was never a top prospect.
Where was Kluber ranked when Cleveland traded for him?
Where were Liriano and Nathan ranked when we traded for them?

I won't get too worked up about the rankings, so long as it's the new guy making the call.
It's OK to trust your scouts, and outscout the other team.

I completely agree with you about rankings but I needed something to use as reference of where other teams prospects were. I really was trying to say - it is great and all to say I want this and that from other teams, but those teams need to have that (most don't have what people are asking for)

Gems are always great and scouting can find the guys floundering on other teams (Kluber and Liriano for example) but I don't want a trade for an established player to revolve around that kind of player.

[Willihammer]

 

so we trade Dozier for Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey?

 

what does on the cup of AA/AAA mean? Is that Kohl Stewart, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jay, Fernando Romero, Randy Rosario,Stephen Gonsalves, Adalberto Mejia, Jose Berrios?

 

Is that the kind of players you are talking about? Lets say those were the prospects from a team that needed a second baseman, what would it take to trade Dozier to them?

(for me it would have to be Berrios, and two more of them)

I tend to agree. The Twins have a fair amount of those pitchers in the system already. We are a lot thinner at C and SS IMO.

 

I wonder if the Braves could be a sneaky trade partner though. They are opening a new park and will have to put together a competitive team somewise somehow. They do have some middle infielders already but maybe they would listen on Dozier for the star power he offers. He's also a southerner so maybe there'd be a one of us angle.

I wonder if they'd part with an Ozzie Albies for him.

Edited October 19, 2016 by Willihammer

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

so we trade Dozier for Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey?

 

what does on the cup of AA/AAA mean? Is that Kohl Stewart, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jay, Fernando Romero, Randy Rosario,Stephen Gonsalves, Adalberto Mejia, Jose Berrios?

 

Is that the kind of players you are talking about? Lets say those were the prospects from a team that needed a second baseman, what would it take to trade Dozier to them?

(for me it would have to be Berrios, and two more of them)

 

Just because a trade for prospects didn't work once doesn't mean you wouldn't do that again. I want to believe that Falvey and company would know the types of players they are looking for, and would acquire players that at some point they believe could help the major league roster. If that means a top 50 prospect and a couple of other lower level pitchers, or even a top 50 prospect who is a year or so away along with someone who has had a cup of coffee in the majors and is ready to be in the rotation, I am good with that. They will be able to acquire talent for Dozier, and they should definitely do that.

[Willihammer]

 

I won't get too worked up about the rankings, so long as it's the new guy making the call.
It's OK to trust your scouts, and outscout the other team.

When's the last time that happened?

[Mike Sixel]

 

When's the last time that happened?

 

Jose Berrios, maybe.....that's pretty recent.

[Mr. Brooks]

When's the last time that happened?

I'm working under the assumption that the new guy will be better.

I think that's all we can do is embrace him and give him the benefit of the doubt until he proves otherwise.

 

Other organizations hit jackpots, I'm hoping Falvey can hit a few too.