Management Continues Mysteriously

[Ncgo4]

They call up Murphy and he catches the first game. How does he do? 3/4, very well and he throws out a runner stealing. The next day they call up Berrios to start the and of course they also start Murphy again because he's the catcher with whom Berrios had all his good starts in Rochester. Simple, yes!

 

NO! They break 'em up and start Centeno. The bewildering management of this team is beyond explanation.

[DocBauer]

Makes little sensearly! As of now, Suzuki will be a FA and would seem to be out of the Twins plans for 2017 entirely unless the new GM loves him for some reason. Not saying he shouldn't get to play a game or two here and there, but he's been paid decently by the Twins. And not to sound insensitive, but he should be paid now to sit and let Murphy and Centeno play out the remainder of the year.

 

I mean, seriously, playing Suzuki at this point could mean...maybe...a win or two more. Maybe. And that potential win or two, if even possible, does nothing for Murphy, Centeno, or the 2017 Twins.

[insane17]

They call up Murphy and he catches the first game. How does he do? 3/4, very well and he throws out a runner stealing. The next day they call up Berrios to start the and of course they also start Murphy again because he's the catcher with whom Berrios had all his good starts in Rochester. Simple, yes!

 

NO! They break 'em up and start Centeno. The bewildering management of this team is beyond explanation.

If Berrios can't pitch to anyone else but Murphy, then it's good to find that out now. Murphy's chances of catching 162 MLB games next season are ZERO!

[insane17]

Makes little sensearly! As of now, Suzuki will be a FA and would seem to be out of the Twins plans for 2017 entirely unless the new GM loves him for some reason. Not saying he shouldn't get to play a game or two here and there, but he's been paid decently by the Twins. And not to sound insensitive, but he should be paid now to sit and let Murphy and Centeno play out the remainder of the year.

 

I mean, seriously, playing Suzuki at this point could mean...maybe...a win or two more. Maybe. And that potential win or two, if even possible, does nothing for Murphy, Centeno, or the 2017 Twins.

Suzuki may be a FA, but if no one else wants him (see trade deadline interest= 0), the Twins may get him back for a pittance.

[jimmer]

JR Murphy is lucky he even got promoted.  I wouldn't concern myself too much with how much playing time he gets this year.

[twinssporto]

Management Continues Mysteriously...

 

OK - On that note, why does management keep Dozier leading off?  He has more homers than anyone on that team, etc., etc., Maybe move him into the three hole at least?  

 

I know the season is lost but why keep that power leading off?

[jimmer]

I'd bat him 4th, myself.

 

Thing is, he's hit 4 HR as the first batter of the game.  After that first plate appearance as the leadoff guy, there's always the potential to have runners on base when he's at the plate.

[jctwins]

 

Management Continues Mysteriously...

 

OK - On that note, why does management keep Dozier leading off?  He has more homers than anyone on that team, etc., etc., Maybe move him into the three hole at least?  

 

I know the season is lost but why keep that power leading off?

 

Molitor said "he's not really a home run guy" in the postgame interview yesterday. So I guess that means he will continue to treat him like a lead-off guy...........................

[Ncgo4]

You people just do not understand baseball. Sano has hit 21 HR's. Sano plays 3rd base and weighs in at 280 lbs. That's a home run guy. Dozier plays 2nd base. He weight in about 170 lbs. He's hit 38 HR's more than any Twin in history not named Killebrew. That's not a home run guy. Molly said so!

[SweetOne69]

 

Management Continues Mysteriously...

 

OK - On that note, why does management keep Dozier leading off?  He has more homers than anyone on that team, etc., etc., Maybe move him into the three hole at least?  

 

I know the season is lost but why keep that power leading off?

 

While I agree that Dozier should bat somewhere between 3rd and 6th, since the traded Nunez Dozier is the only player that has the qualities to bat leadoff:  Patient at the plate, decent OBP and SB potential.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Management Continues Mysteriously...

 

OK - On that note, why does management keep Dozier leading off?  He has more homers than anyone on that team, etc., etc., Maybe move him into the three hole at least?  

 

I know the season is lost but why keep that power leading off?

 

A lot of research on lineups indicates that the roles we focus on are immaterial. Any sequencing advantage is lost after the first inning and you run the risk of not getting as many at bats for your best hitters as possible. If Dozier bats first, he bats more often.

[Kwak]

 

Management Continues Mysteriously...

 

OK - On that note, why does management keep Dozier leading off?  He has more homers than anyone on that team, etc., etc., Maybe move him into the three hole at least?  

 

I know the season is lost but why keep that power leading off?

Because Dozier's ABs leading off the game are phenomenally successful. He catches many a pitcher unawares--just trying to start things off, so to speak--and BAM! HR or Double. Later ABs results are much less than his first AB.

[Rosterman]

Yes, true, how often does Dozier leadoff. Yet you have to chuckle at Molly's comment about Dozier not being a power hitter. Just like Nunez was only a utility guy.

 

I can agree that if you are going to match catchers with certain pitchers, you have the ability to do it. Especially this late in the season have the guys who are familiar with certain pitchers pitch to certain pitchers. It makes total sense for Murphy and Berrios to be a team now and in the future (assuming Murphy did catch Berrios in Rochester). 

 

I, though, would bat Schafer lead-off. We do need him to get those extra game at bats to see how he ranks as a 4th outfielder option for the Twins.

[ThejacKmp]

 

They call up Murphy and he catches the first game. How does he do? 3/4, very well and he throws out a runner stealing. The next day they call up Berrios to start the and of course they also start Murphy again because he's the catcher with whom Berrios had all his good starts in Rochester. Simple, yes!

NO! They break 'em up and start Centeno. The bewildering management of this team is beyond explanation.

 

A wrinkle, not sure how important it is:

 

Suzuki is a free agent playing for his next contract - he wants to have the ABs and playing time to showcase his skills. If the Twins just bench him (clearly in their best self interest), he doesn't get to do that. That in turn hurts the Twins reputation with free agents. I work in banking and every bank has it's own reputation and it does affect where people choose to work. The Twins don't want the reputation of being a team that will hurt a free agent's leverage for the next deal - otherwise guys will have a disincentive to sign with the Twins because they're seen as a team that doesn't shoot straight.

 

Now I'm not sure how much Suzuki alone matters but my point is more that this isn't just a black-and-white what's best for the Twins thing. There are a lot of factors involved as far as reputation goes. This is why it was criminal not to trade Suzuki. Even if they got nothing for dumping him, they would free up PT without potentially hurting their reputation.

[jimmer]

Leading off the game: .294/.294/.627.(.922 OPS) 4 HR, zero walks.

2016 overall stats: .279/.350/.576.(.926 OPS).

[Doomtints]

 

A lot of research on lineups indicates that the roles we focus on are immaterial. Any sequencing advantage is lost after the first inning and you run the risk of not getting as many at bats for your best hitters as possible. If Dozier bats first, he bats more often.

 

 

"The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on base."

 

-- Bill James

 

I'm unaware of any credible research that suggests that Bill James is wrong.  About anything, actually.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They call up Murphy and he catches the first game. How does he do? 3/4, very well and he throws out a runner stealing. The next day they call up Berrios to start the and of course they also start Murphy again because he's the catcher with whom Berrios had all his good starts in Rochester. Simple, yes!

NO! They break 'em up and start Centeno. The bewildering management of this team is beyond explanation.

I wouldn't pick on them too much for sitting Murphy after a good day at the plate, but pairing the Hispanic pitcher with the Hispanic catcher again suggests that perhaps development and team-building is not a strong suit of this management team...

[DaveW]

Honestly I think Molitor either:

 

-Doesn't care at this point

-never thought this far ahead/deep when putting together a lineup.

-Takes a page out of the TK book on how to bury rookies in favor of "gritty replacement level veterans"

 

Frankly, Molitor has been grossly over matched in his time as a major league manager, hopefully this nightmare ceases to be after the season.

[Obsvr]

 

A wrinkle, not sure how important it is:

 

Suzuki is a free agent playing for his next contract - he wants to have the ABs and playing time to showcase his skills. If the Twins just bench him (clearly in their best self interest), he doesn't get to do that. That in turn hurts the Twins reputation with free agents. I work in banking and every bank has it's own reputation and it does affect where people choose to work. The Twins don't want the reputation of being a team that will hurt a free agent's leverage for the next deal - otherwise guys will have a disincentive to sign with the Twins because they're seen as a team that doesn't shoot straight.

 

Now I'm not sure how much Suzuki alone matters but my point is more that this isn't just a black-and-white what's best for the Twins thing. There are a lot of factors involved as far as reputation goes. This is why it was criminal not to trade Suzuki. Even if they got nothing for dumping him, they would free up PT without potentially hurting their reputation.

 

No.

 

An incoming FA isn't worrying about how many at bats he is going to get in the last few weeks of the last year of his new contract.

 

lol.

[ThejacKmp]

 

"The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on base."

 

-- Bill James

 

I'm unaware of any credible research that suggests that Bill James is wrong.  About anything, actually.

 

When he talks about that, he isn't talking about the leadoff man in the lineup, he's talking about the leadoff man in the inning. Other than the first inning, the leadoff man is no more likely to be the guy leading off an inning than anyone else in the lineup*.

 

* I guess that's not entirely true in the NL, where whoever bats after the pitcher probably leads off more innings because the pitcher is more likely to make a 3rd out. But you get my point.

[ThejacKmp]

 

No.

 

An incoming FA isn't worrying about how many at bats he is going to get in the last few weeks of the last year of his new contract.

 

lol.

 

Yes.

 

Kurt Suzuki is absolutely worried about how many at bats and counting stats he gets - that's how he and his agent sell him for next season. The dawn of advanced stats lessens this a little bit but those numbers still matter in getting another deal. Suzuki sitting down the stretch makes him less marketable for next year. If he is less marketable, that negatively affects the Twins reputation. You can certainly argue a matter of degree (again, advanced stats make pure counting stats less valuable) but this is certainly a factor.

[alarp33]

 

Yes.

 

Kurt Suzuki is absolutely worried about how many at bats and counting stats he gets - that's how he and his agent sell him for next season. The dawn of advanced stats lessens this a little bit but those numbers still matter in getting another deal. Suzuki sitting down the stretch makes him less marketable for next year. If he is less marketable, that negatively affects the Twins reputation. You can certainly argue a matter of degree (again, advanced stats make pure counting stats less valuable) but this is certainly a factor.

 

Since sitting Suzuki down the stretch would negatively affect the Twins reputation and ability to sign free agents, can you provide examples of this happening to a team.  

[Doomtints]

 

When he talks about that, he isn't talking about the leadoff man in the lineup, he's talking about the leadoff man in the inning. Other than the first inning, the leadoff man is no more likely to be the guy leading off an inning than anyone else in the lineup*.

 

* I guess that's not entirely true in the NL, where whoever bats after the pitcher probably leads off more innings because the pitcher is more likely to make a 3rd out. But you get my point.

 

He is talking about the person who "bats leadoff" or the #1 person in the batting order.  

 

Of the entire history of baseball -- this theory is only off as far as predicting runs scored by 4%.  That's incredible.

[Obsvr]

 

Yes.

 

Kurt Suzuki is absolutely worried about how many at bats and counting stats he gets - that's how he and his agent sell him for next season. The dawn of advanced stats lessens this a little bit but those numbers still matter in getting another deal. Suzuki sitting down the stretch makes him less marketable for next year. If he is less marketable, that negatively affects the Twins reputation. You can certainly argue a matter of degree (again, advanced stats make pure counting stats less valuable) but this is certainly a factor.

 

No.

 

Of course Kurt is worried about his AB's.  That's not the issue.

 

 It was posited that the Twins "reputation" might be hurt if they don't play him much the rest of the way and that would somehow affect a future free agent's decision to come here.

 

 As I said before, any incoming FA doesn't care about how they handled Kurt Suzuki's final three weeks nor is he concerned with what would be the final month of his contract, whenever that might be.  Nothing happens in a vacuum in baseball, every players situation is different.  

 

A light hitting, terrible defensive catcher who probably won't have job next year isn't going to have any effect on somebodies decision to sign here or not.

 

 

[beckmt]

I do not see a reason to give Suzuki AB's the remainder of this year.  This is a talent evaluation period, not a help an old vet period.  Zuke and his rep must understand this.  It could also be part of the do we offer a contract to Zuke next year because we are not happy with our options.  All this figures in, but you cannot make decisions without some knowledge how other players are playing.

[laloesch]

 

Honestly I think Molitor either:

-Doesn't care at this point
-never thought this far ahead/deep when putting together a lineup.
-Takes a page out of the TK book on how to bury rookies in favor of "gritty replacement level veterans"

Frankly, Molitor has been grossly over matched in his time as a major league manager, hopefully this nightmare ceases to be after the season.

 

Yeah, i'm not a fan of his either.  Should have been Lovullo or Mientkiewicz.

[Doomtints]

 

Honestly I think Molitor either:

-Doesn't care at this point
-never thought this far ahead/deep when putting together a lineup.
-Takes a page out of the TK book on how to bury rookies in favor of "gritty replacement level veterans"

Frankly, Molitor has been grossly over matched in his time as a major league manager, hopefully this nightmare ceases to be after the season.

 

Let's be fair here.  Gardenhire was really the guy who mishandled rookies throughout his career, but he largely got away with it in the 00s.

 

TK had some great veterans AND some great rookies before Ryan came along.  When Ryan came in, both the rookie and veteran avenues dried up for TK and he did the best he could with what he was given, as Gardenhire had to do after 2011.  In the two Ryan eras where there was little talent on the team, the results were not good for either manager.

 

To be 100% fair it's thus difficult to judge Molitor because neither Gardy nor TK did great jobs on teams bereft of talent.  However, Molitor seems to make bad decisions during games at a level that I don't remember TK or Gardy doing, and I think everyone agrees that a clean slate is in order.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 As I said before, any incoming FA doesn't care about how they handled Kurt Suzuki's final three weeks nor is he concerned with what would be the final month of his contract, whenever that might be.  Nothing happens in a vacuum in baseball, every players situation is different.  

I see you are new here.  This was hashed out in a recent Suzuki thread.  I think it would affect the Twins.  Players absolutely do not like to be promised starting jobs, then get benched for reasons mostly outside their control.  And other players would not look past such a thing -- players are pretty tight-knit in this respect.

 

That was why it was critical to trade Suzuki, even if it meant eating his remaining salary and accepting virtually nothing in return.  (I guess they still could if some contender wants a third catcher for the last few weeks?)

[Mike Sixel]

 

I see you are new here.  This was hashed out in a recent Suzuki thread.  I think it would affect the Twins.  Players absolutely do not like to be promised starting jobs, then get benched for reasons mostly outside their control.  And other players would not look past such a thing -- players are pretty tight-knit in this respect.

 

That was why it was critical to trade Suzuki, even if it meant eating his remaining salary and accepting virtually nothing in return.  (I guess they still could if some contender wants a third catcher for the last few weeks?)

 

We have zero idea if this matters to potential FAs or not. We can guess, but I doubt anyone here knows.

[old nurse]

Suzuki playing much for a month is neither going to help or hurt him in free agency.  10 years of data shows him for his good times and bad. Those 10 years should by now have shown him nothing is certain for starting. Starting is not a promised thing. Someone pretty much batting in the 8 hole all season could figure out the team is not expecting much out of their bat. The free agents similar to Suzuki at any position are going to look for what are their chances. They will not be concerned or even be aware of Suzuki..  I think if a player is bothered by how the Twins handled Suzuki's last month that they might not be confident enough in their talent.  You don't need that on your team.

 

In regards to Murphy, a sample size of one game now offsets the other 90 he played in.