Berardino: Ervin Santana Clears Waivers

[Seth Stohs]

According to Mike Berardino, RHP Ervin Santana has cleared waivers. As we know, that means that he can be traded to any team the rest of the season. 

 

It's somewhat surprising with the combination of 1.) how well he's pitching and 2.) a very reasonable two years and $28 million remaining on his contract. 

 

With a weak free agent starting pitcher market this offseason, the Twins should be able to ask for - and maybe get - a big return for Santana. 

[laloesch]

Interesting.  I wonder if anything is in the works.

[Jham]

I would guess any interested team already kicked the tires and found the asking price too steep.

[bluechipper]

I wonder why a team wouldn't just claim him to block a trade to some other team. The Twins wouldn't have just let him go for nothing.

[gunnarthor]

 

I wonder why a team wouldn't just claim him to block a trade to some other team. The Twins wouldn't have just let him go for nothing.

Generally, there is a gentleman's agreement between GMs to not nab guys just to block them.  Occasionally, it's ignored (Steve Phillips was notorious for it) but I suspect that was a big reason. 

 

Additionally, a team would have to at least accept the possibility that the Twins would just drop Santana's salary on them, if claimed.  I think it's unlikely but with an interim GM and cheap ownership ...

 

And, of course, Santana might not be as well viewed as we hope.

[Craig Arko]

Presumably Plouffe will be next.

[darin617]

This is the type of thing the Twins should be doing if another player like Santana is placed on waivers claim em. When I saw Carlos Ruiz cleared waivers I was shocked the Twins didn't put a claim in for him. Around $6.5M for rest of year and next year for a solid veteran catcher to pair up with Garver next season.

[Thrylos]

 

This is the type of thing the Twins should be doing if another player like Santana is placed on waivers claim em. When I saw Carlos Ruiz cleared waivers I was shocked the Twins didn't put a claim in for him. Around $6.5M for rest of year and next year for a solid veteran catcher to pair up with Garver next season.

 

Um. No.  He is in his last legs.  For real.  Nothing solid about Chooch these days.  Only 48 games in Philly because of injuries. 

[Thrylos]

I laughed at that headline:

 

 

 

Minnesota Twins ace Ervin Santana clears waivers

 

Ace?

 

If Antony views him as that, nothing is going to happen.  Santana is a decent number 3 or 4, on the declining part of his career, with a chronic UCL issue and a drug suspension behind him.  AKA: a ticking time bomb.

A smart GM will get rid of him as soon as possible.  Desperation makes trades, and the opportunity is higher now than the off-season, when teams can actually do some planning.

[Rosterman]

Wonder what scares people about Santana. No one grabbed him before the trading deadline. Yes, he might have cost 3-4 solid prospects. But most teams CAN afford that, if they know what they have in their non-broken down system. His pitching this season has been exceptional. He is cost effective for two more seasons with an option. He would still be a tradeable asset next season (or during the offseason) depending on continued production.

 

The Twins asking too much (shades of the other Santana). 

 

There is nothing wrong with keeping Ervin. He is a solid pitcher, takes you late into the games, doesn't seem to be crying about being on the losing end of some tough decisions (yet).

 

He has about six solid starts left. Would he be better than the 4th or 5th guy on ANY of the contending teams? If he is better than the 4th, then you aren't really blocking a future prospect, yet.

 

And nothing happening with Suzuki? Pity. They haven't been playing him as much, and I would like to see Murphy just play in September because...it probably won't matter much as the Twins spiral towards 100 and he, at least, has to learn to catch some of the arms that will remain next year.

 

 

[Danchat]

I don't think Santana will be moved within the next few days, but I could be wrong. If the Twins are going to trade Santana, my hunch is that they'll do it over the offseason instead of within the next 5 days.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Generally, there is a gentleman's agreement between GMs to not nab guys just to block them. Occasionally, it's ignored (Steve Phillips was notorious for it) but I suspect that was a big reason.

 

Additionally, a team would have to at least accept the possibility that the Twins would just drop Santana's salary on them, if claimed. I think it's unlikely but with an interim GM and cheap ownership ...

 

And, of course, Santana might not be as well viewed as we hope.

I thought the gentlemen's agreement was more like, don't claim unless you think a trade is likely or unless you are blocking another team from making a likely deal? And if the Twins asking price is known to be high, no deal for Santana is likely and thus a claim would be meaningless and not be made.

 

For an extreme example, would anyone bother claiming Mike Trout?

[The Wise One]

 

I laughed at that headline:

 

 

 

 

Ace?

 

If Antony views him as that, nothing is going to happen.  Santana is a decent number 3 or 4, on the declining part of his career, with a chronic UCL issue and a drug suspension behind him.  AKA: a ticking time bomb.

A smart GM will get rid of him as soon as possible.  Desperation makes trades, and the opportunity is higher now than the off-season, when teams can actually do some planning.

A lot of teams must have pitchers must be having down years because other than by wins and losses  the numbers seem to say Santana is a  high 2 and thus a valuable commodity for a win now team

[The Wise One]

 

I thought the gentlemen's agreement was more like, don't claim unless you think a trade is likely or unless you are blocking another team from making a likely deal? And if the Twins asking price is known to be high, no deal for Santana is likely and thus a claim would be meaningless and not be made.

For an extreme example, would anyone bother claiming Mike Trout?

Yes they would claim Trout. They might pass on Puig.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I laughed at that headline:

 

 

 

 

Ace?

 

If Antony views him as that, nothing is going to happen.  Santana is a decent number 3 or 4, on the declining part of his career, with a chronic UCL issue and a drug suspension behind him.  AKA: a ticking time bomb.

A smart GM will get rid of him as soon as possible.  Desperation makes trades, and the opportunity is higher now than the off-season, when teams can actually do some planning.

Ace may not be the right term, but the league average ERA for starters is 4.36 (4.21 for all pitching).  That includes, I might add, the NL where pitchers are graced with a free out at the bottom of the order. 

 

Santana currently sits at 3.54.  I'm not sure how that qualifies as a decent 3/4 as that puts him pretty solidly in the top half of starting pitchers, a feat that he's managed to maintain for all but one season since 2010.  I won't necessarily argue the UCL/steroid point, I agree there's risk there, but if that's the definition of a 3/4, then there aren't a whole lot of 1/2s anywhere.

[Thrylos]

 

Ace may not be the right term, but the league average ERA for starters is 4.36 (4.21 for all pitching).  That includes, I might add, the NL where pitchers are graced with a free out at the bottom of the order. 

 

Santana currently sits at 3.54.  I'm not sure how that qualifies as a decent 3/4 as that puts him pretty solidly in the top half of starting pitchers, a feat that he's managed to maintain for all but one season since 2010.  I won't necessarily argue the UCL/steroid point, I agree there's risk there, but if that's the definition of a 3/4, then there aren't a whole lot of 1/2s anywhere.

 

There was something missing: "in a post-season team".   If you look at his rankings among qualified pitchers

 

WAR: 33/84
FIP: 34/84
ERA: 33/84

 

He ranks right where a 3 in a winning team should rank.  League average teams and non-competing teams are not going to be after Santana now, so league average is a bit irrelevant about his possibilities of getting traded.

 

Is overall an above average pitcher?  For sure.  But winning teams have above averages 3s and 4s...

[Shaitan]

They also have to receive players who cleared waivers in return (or PTBNL), right?

 

I can't think of a post-deadline trade that's been more than a salary dump from the non-contender's POV.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

They also have to receive players who cleared waivers in return (or PTBNL), right?

 

I can't think of a post-deadline trade that's been more than a salary dump from the non-contender's POV.

Only 40-man roster players would be subject to trade assignment waivers, so a team could trade lower level prospects if they wanted.

 

Of course, as you note, it still rarely happens that anything worthwhile is sent back in an August deal. Hollins for Ortiz was an August trade many years ago, but of course no one trades prospects that recklessly anymore.

[mudcat14]

The Jays were rumored interested before.  I assume any deal with them would start with Reese McGuire.  Any interest at all in having Liriano return, with salary relief?  I always heard the Twins liked his attitude.  Could he be a mentor to young hurlers?

[jorgenswest]

They also have to receive players who cleared waivers in return (or PTBNL), right?

 

I can't think of a post-deadline trade that's been more than a salary dump from the non-contender's POV.

Some would see the Twins dumping salary. It would be different than dumping Morneau though.

 

The Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez and took in a lot of salary. From the Dodgers point of view, Gonzalez was a long term solution. They gave up some significant prospects. Santana isn't in the same class, but teams would see him as a solution this year and next. Good prospects can move in August.

[ashbury]

They also have to receive players who cleared waivers in return (or PTBNL), right?

Not for players not on a 40-man roster, I believe, which would be the basis for any knock-me-over trade I would be interested in.

 

The Twins rotation has not gone the way it was planned when the three veterans were signed to their contracts to bridge to the next generation of pitchers, and by now I feel as though ESan needs to stay with the team lest we resign ourselves to another horrible year. Yes, trade him if doing so brings back significant prospects, but don't just trade him for salary relief and 40-man roster flexibility; we don't have enough MLB-ready starters to need 40-man flexibility.

[Thrylos]

 

Not for players not on a 40-man roster, I believe, which would be the basis for any knock-me-over trade I would be interested in.

 

The Twins rotation has not gone the way it was planned when the three veterans were signed to their contracts to bridge to the next generation of pitchers, and by now I feel as though ESan needs to stay with the team lest we resign ourselves to another horrible year. Yes, trade him if doing so brings back significant prospects, but don't just trade him for salary relief and 40-man roster flexibility; we don't have enough MLB-ready starters to need 40-man flexibility.

 

Just to play devil's advocate: Who would you rather have for the next 3 seasons (with the same $) :

Ervin Santana or Jeremy Hellickson (who is 4 years younger, free agent this off-season, and on the upswing - and from Des Moines) ?

[howieramone2]

 

Just to play devil's advocate: Who would you rather have for the next 3 seasons (with the same $) :

Ervin Santana or Jeremy Hellickson (who is 4 years younger, free agent this off-season, and on the upswing - and from Des Moines) ?

We have room for both. 

[jorgenswest]

Just to play devil's advocate: Who would you rather have for the next 3 seasons (with the same $) :

Ervin Santana or Jeremy Hellickson (who is 4 years younger, free agent this off-season, and on the upswing - and from Des Moines) ?

I would want Santana for next year and probably neither for three years. I would be very cautious signing a pitcher for three years based on one season. I certainly am not projecting forward three without looking back three. His strike out rate is up since his time with the Rays but he is pitching in the NL.

 

I am scouting by stat line (which I acknowledge in isolation is useless) so maybe his addition of a slider (according to fangraphs) and significant drop in use of four seem fastball has led to better results. It probably also increases the likelihood of injury.

 

Can I choose not to commit to either for the next three?

[ashbury]

We have room for both. 

Yeah, I think I'm going to take this route, and say that the money freed up by trading Nolasco and then non-tendering Santiago can be applied toward improving on what we have. I look forward to the day we trade a veteran FA we signed, due to prospects beating the door down.

[The Wise One]

 

There was something missing: "in a post-season team".   If you look at his rankings among qualified pitchers

 

WAR: 33/84
FIP: 34/84
ERA: 33/84

 

He ranks right where a 3 in a winning team should rank.  League average teams and non-competing teams are not going to be after Santana now, so league average is a bit irrelevant about his possibilities of getting traded.

 

Is overall an above average pitcher?  For sure.  But winning teams have above averages 3s and 4s...

The Dodgers have no current qualified starters with a WAR better than Santana, Kershaw is injured and below the cutoff, Madea is behind for the moment.

The Orioles have no one,

Cleveland only has Kluber

Texas has Hamels

 

So on 4 out of 10 teams currently in the playoffs Santana would be their second best starter by WAR