Speculation: E. Santana to the Red Sox and Ricky Nolasco to the Orioles...

[Thrylos]

according to this Dave Cameron piece at fangraphs. 

 

That would be excellent, but I think that more players than he lists will move...

[diehardtwinsfan]

That's just click bait

 

I was all excited about shedding Nolasco.  The Red Sox are a bit more aggressive, so getting a decent prospect from them might be doable.  I'd be fine keeping Santana, but I want Milone and Nolasco off the roster.

[Vanimal46]

Dang it, this title was a tease. Only trade rumors, carry on. 

[Willihammer]

Booo

[bluechipper]

"Rumors or Predictions" in the title would be helpful.

 

I'm glad Dave Cameron thinks Nolasco is movable.

[jorgenswest]

Santana mentioned to Royals here among a group of several pitchers.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-royals-should-be-buyers-sort-of/

 

His appeal is that his lack of up will result in a lower prospect cost. Yes. The Twins could offer to pay part of the contract to drive up the return but in that case why not go after a pitcher with upside when giving up the better prospect.

 

"Santana is 33 years old and owed $27 million over the next two seasons. His upside is non-existent but he does provide value as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater and did have some success with the Royals when he was with them in 2013, for whatever that’s worth. Also, as a result of his contract status and age, the asking price for Santana will likely be the lowest among this group of pitchers."

[HitInAPinch]

So what we're saying here is FanGraphs is cranking a Friday Dump to get more reads.  Got it    

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Still, if Antony hasn't called Baltimore by now to see what's up with that, then that's a fail!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That would be excellent, but I think that more players than he lists will move...

Huh?  Cameron lists 28 notable players changing teams.  That would be pretty active for the next 10 days.

 

If he's predicting that Ricky Nolasco will get traded before the non waiver deadline, he is almost certainly predicting an overly active trade market.

[Mike Sixel]

Those aren't predictions,

 

"Just for the fun of it, let’s wildly speculate on where the biggest name guys might go before August 1st. Keep in mind that no one really knows what is going to happen, so this is more of an exercise in frivolity than a serious attempt at forecasting the deadline moves. Let’s see how many wild guesses I can get right."

[kab21]

 

Santana mentioned to Royals here among a group of several pitchers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-royals-should-be-buyers-sort-of/

His appeal is that his lack of up will result in a lower prospect cost. Yes. The Twins could offer to pay part of the contract to drive up the return but in that case why not go after a pitcher with upside when giving up the better prospect.

"Santana is 33 years old and owed $27 million over the next two seasons. His upside is non-existent but he does provide value as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater and did have some success with the Royals when he was with them in 2013, for whatever that’s worth. Also, as a result of his contract status and age, the asking price for Santana will likely be the lowest among this group of pitchers."

And that is the reality of Ervin Santana trade market. He basically has no value. Either you pay him (part of his salary) to pitch for someone else (and still not get much back) or get a lesser prospect.

 

I get neither excited about Ervin being gone or angry about Ervin coming back next year. Right now the Twins don't have 5 young pitchers that are better than him. I would rather see Ervin than Pat Dean next year.

 

Nolasco however has negative value. I would be excited if he was gone tomorrow and I would be angry if he was back next year. I would rather see Pat Dean (or literally anyone) than Nolasco next year.

[tlkriens]

Ricky Nolasco has a 5.41 ERA in 311 innings with the Twins. 2nd highest ERA in team history, minimum 300 innings. Pat Mahomes, 5.82 ERA.

[Mr. Brooks]

Ricky Nolasco has a 5.41 ERA in 311 innings with the Twins. 2nd highest ERA in team history, minimum 300 innings. Pat Mahomes, 5.82 ERA.

Well it looks like we were able to trade Pat Mahomes to Boston for a PTBNL (Brian Looney), so I guess anything is possible.

[mudcat14]

Santana and Dozier to Bosox for Moncada.  Brian could play 3B and put a lot of dents in the monster.  Shaw and Holt are butchers at third, maybe Boston would go for it.  Okay, Pipe Dream.

[old nurse]

 

Santana and Dozier to Bosox for Moncada.  Brian could play 3B and put a lot of dents in the monster.  Shaw and Holt are butchers at third, maybe Boston would go for it.  Okay, Pipe Dream.

Dozier did not have the arm for SS, much less 3b

[old nurse]

 

 

Well, Mahomes was only 26 years old at the time, cheap, and had shown some potential in the bullpen. Also I am curious what their rrpsective adjusted ERA- figures were...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mahompa01.shtml

[old nurse]

 

 

Ricky Nolasco has a 5.41 ERA in 311 innings with the Twins. 2nd highest ERA in team history, minimum 300 innings. Pat Mahomes, 5.82 ERA.

David Price this year is making Nolasco look like a cheap player

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well it looks like we were able to trade Pat Mahomes to Boston for a PTBNL (Brian Looney), so I guess anything is possible.

Well, Mahomes was only 26 years old at the time, cheap, and had shown some potential in the bullpen. Also I am curious what their respective adjusted ERA- figures were...

 

Whoa, Nolasco wins easily. 138 ERA-, Mahomes is at 125 (lower is better).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=300&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=1961&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d

[mudcat14]

 

Dozier did not have the arm for SS, much less 3b

 

My coach's always said the throw was further from SS than 3B.

[DocBauer]

After another horrible start from Nolasco yesterday, I'm just not sure there is a market for him. I'd love to eat some contract and move him to a NL team willing to give up SOMETHING for a flyer because they need help, his career has been spent in the NL, and a change of scenery may turn him around. But at this point, whatever it takes, the Twins just need to move on, and so does Nolasco.

[Monkeypaws]

 

After another horrible start from Nolasco yesterday, I'm just not sure there is a market for him. I'd love to eat some contract and move him to a NL team willing to give up SOMETHING for a flyer because they need help, his career has been spent in the NL, and a change of scenery may turn him around. But at this point, whatever it takes, the Twins just need to move on, and so does Nolasco.

 

Rochester?

[laloesch]

 

After another horrible start from Nolasco yesterday, I'm just not sure there is a market for him. I'd love to eat some contract and move him to a NL team willing to give up SOMETHING for a flyer because they need help, his career has been spent in the NL, and a change of scenery may turn him around. But at this point, whatever it takes, the Twins just need to move on, and so does Nolasco.

 

 

I don't understand the FO.   Why is Ricky given start after start after start when we have Berrios waiting for a second chance in AAA?  It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever UNLESS......they are hoping to keep him in the rotation through the trade deadline in order showcase his awesome skills before dealing him to some AL team where he will instantly become ACE and win the CY young award in 2017.

[Rosterman]

If the Twins CAN'T move any pieces between now and September first, even taking the waiver wire no-return bath, then the front office we see just how valuable all these contracts are in the eyes of other teams and how badly TR and Co. overpayment for players that no other teams wants.

 

But in the case of Santana, you have to ask: If he was a free agent in 2017...would a team offer him $25-30 million with an option to pitch for them?" You have to ask that question on all players. What will Suzuki draw in salary interest as a fee agent. Would any other team offer Plouffe an arbitration win of $10+ million. Is Nolasco worth a $10+ million gamble for one year of back-of-the-rotation. Do we really need to part with a prospect for Nunez, Abad, Kintsler or any other Twin or just bring a guy up from the minors. 

 

Will any of the players the Twins want to shed add to a team, and they can't find a suitable player elsewhere.

 

 

[howieramone2]

TR didn't overpay for Nolasco and Santana. They both had other suitors. Remember, in free agency you pay market price, right?

 

Also, I just listened to Rob Antony on Inside Twins. If the deal is favorable, they will make it. But there is no gun to their head to shed anyone.

[Rosterman]

 

TR didn't overpay for Nolasco and Santana. They both had other suitors. Remember, in free agency you pay market price, right?

 

Also, I just listened to Rob Antony on Inside Twins. If the deal is favorable, they will make it. But there is no gun to their head to shed anyone.

I listened to Anthony, too. First off, seems Terry fell on his sword to give his protege a chance to be a general manager for a major league baseball team. Good for Terry. Anthony appears to have the desire and possibly the chops, too bad it was to step up into the Twins general manager chair rather than be one of the top candidates another team would woo when such a position opens on a baseball team. Big difference. He may show some stuff in his two months, but it is a short window. But he will be a Twins general manager in the record book.

 

He also mentioned about not giving guys away and getting something back in return. Now remember, getting something back in return can be as little as just salary relief.A

 

And, again, when you are a floundering team, there is no reason to keep potential free agents if you aren't willing to reach an agreement with them today. Wait until the offseason and you see Nathan, Cuddyer and Kubel take offers elsewhere. The hometown discount is gone. Get what you can for Suzuki. If you aren't going to sign Plouffe to a longterm, let him walk since he has an arbitration year and let the other team make that decision. If you feel they will let him walk, too, then Plouffe is a free agent and you can go after him again for a lesser amount...maybe.

 

If anyone is willing to take a long term contract off your hands with an August claim, you consider. Even Mauer (if it is the right club). Even Hughes and Perkins (you can claim a dl'ed guy, right?). 

 

Except that money is seldom banked and saved for a rainy day, so in some ways...if you hve salary space, I guess why not keep the guy and pay them next season to do little or nothing (shades of Nick Blackburn), right? Of course, they may increase their value, which makes everyone giddy and the situation gooder!

 

 

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I listened to Anthony, too. First off, seems Terry fell on his sword to give his protege a chance to be a general manager for a major league baseball team. Good for Terry. Anthony appears to have the desire and possibly the chops, too bad it was to step up into the Twins general manager chair rather than be one of the top candidates another team would woo when such a position opens on a baseball team. Big difference. He may show some stuff in his two months, but it is a short window. But he will be a Twins general manager in the record book.

 

He also mentioned about not giving guys away and getting something back in return. Now remember, getting something back in return can be as little as just salary relief.A

 

And, again, when you are a floundering team, there is no reason to keep potential free agents if you aren't willing to reach an agreement with them today. Wait until the offseason and you see Nathan, Cuddyer and Kubel take offers elsewhere. The hometown discount is gone. Get what you can for Suzuki. If you aren't going to sign Plouffe to a longterm, let him walk since he has an arbitration year and let the other team make that decision. If you feel they will let him walk, too, then Plouffe is a free agent and you can go after him again for a lesser amount...maybe.

 

If anyone is willing to take a long term contract off your hands with an August claim, you consider. Even Mauer (if it is the right club). Even Hughes and Perkins (you can claim a dl'ed guy, right?).

 

Except that money is seldom banked and saved for a rainy day, so in some ways...if you hve salary space, I guess why not keep the guy and pay them next season to do little or nothing (shades of Nick Blackburn), right? Of course, they may increase their value, which makes everyone giddy and the situation gooder!

I could be wrong but I don't think a player on the DL can be placed on trade waivers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I listened to Anthony, too. First off, seems Terry fell on his sword to give his protege a chance to be a general manager for a major league baseball team. Good for Terry. Anthony appears to have the desire and possibly the chops, too bad it was to step up into the Twins general manager chair rather than be one of the top candidates another team would woo when such a position opens on a baseball team. Big difference. He may show some stuff in his two months, but it is a short window. But he will be a Twins general manager in the record book.

What makes you think Antony might have the chops to be a GM?

 

Terry Ryan, for all his faults, was an adept evaluator of talent. He had a scouting background. He knew how to hire other scouts, likely due to his scouting background. 

 

Scouting was the backbone of Ryan's tenure, for all the good and bad that came with it. Ryan was, quite literally, a "baseball guy".

 

Antony was raised in this environment but without any of Ryan's pre-GM background in evaluation. He doesn't have the knack for talent evaluation because he hasn't done the legwork to acquire that skill first-hand.

 

And, because he spent his career under Ryan, Antony certainly doesn't have experience with the new side of baseball, either. He's not a young up-and-comer with a forward-thinking organization, ready to burst onto the scenes with new ideas and piles of data to back them up.

 

So what does he bring to the table, exactly? He strikes me as middle management; not trained to be the guy in the head chair but not skilled at the down-and-dirty work of every day tradespeople, either (where Ryan got his start).

 

And I don't want that guy as the Twins' GM.

 

[nicksaviking]

TR didn't overpay for Nolasco and Santana. They both had other suitors. Remember, in free agency you pay market price, right?

 

Also, I just listened to Rob Antony on Inside Twins. If the deal is favorable, they will make it. But there is no gun to their head to shed anyone.

Both of those are speculation. Stating these things as fact are how arguement a start.

[nicksaviking]

What makes you think Antony might have the chops to be a GM?

 

Terry Ryan, for all his faults, was an adept evaluator of talent. He had a scouting background. He knew how to hire other scouts, likely due to his scouting background. 

 

Scouting was the backbone of Ryan's tenure, for all the good and bad that came with it. Ryan was, quite literally, a "baseball guy".

 

Antony was raised in this environment but without any of Ryan's pre-GM background in evaluation. He doesn't have the knack for talent evaluation because he hasn't done the legwork to acquire that skill first-hand.

 

And, because he spent his career under Ryan, Antony certainly doesn't have experience with the new side of baseball, either. He's not a young up-and-comer with a forward-thinking organization, ready to burst onto the scenes with new ideas and piles of data to back them up.

 

So what does he bring to the table, exactly? He strikes me as middle management; not trained to be the guy in the head chair but not skilled at the down-and-dirty work of every day tradespeople, either (where Ryan got his start).

 

And I don't want that guy as the Twins' GM.

I agree, had Anthony started in a larger organization where top employees don't appear to have to focus on multiple responsibilities and jobs appear more streamlined, Anthony would more likely be an underling of St Peter on the business side, not Ryan.

 

Good for Anthony, he has surely worked hard to get his promotions, but his background seems ill suited to his current job.

[ND-Fan]

Everybody is looking to blow this team up and yes they need changes but what is the plan to get to successful season. I hear all people on the web sites we need to trade all these players but bigger question is who are we going to replace them with. Especially pitching at the major league level. We just went through 4 years with hhiring lower tier pitchers to fill spots. Now we have several pitchers that fall in middle tier of pitching. I look at the farm system we have Berios that could come up to pitch at major league level but will need seasoning before he's quality major league pitcher. From there we have Gibson and May that could pitch at major league level. So who do we fill in those last two sports for next year. We may have Hughes back from major surgery but its unknown if this will return him from Two years ago.

If we get rid of Santanna, Nolasco, and Milone who's going fill that last spot in the rotation and who will be our depth. Are we going out again and sign another free agent pitcher that will be hard to do with ownership already feeling the pain of previous signings and high risk now in signing free agent pitchers. To trade for top pitching your looking at trading some of very best young talent probably trading of Buxton or Sano to with couple of veterans to get number of young pitchers. Now you see the what Twins management has been facing with new baseball its nearly impossible to trade with teams to acquire front line pitching unless your willing to give up huge chunk of your young stars. Going free agent route your going to get aging player past his prime with injury possibilities likely hood. That has been Twins failing of current Twins staff in that their pitching selections have failed to make it to major leagues as starters. To name a few is Wimmers, Myers, and several others putting pipeline very bare in near future. They do have pitchers down in A and some moving to Double a but they are still a couple years away from improving this team. Like I say to get this team to be contender they are going to need pitching and that is not easy task to do in short period. It going to take a lot of money and giving away lot of their positional talent to get there so we could see team that may have pitching but will struggle to develop offense.

Also if we get new GM from outside the Twins are going to see significant increase in operating costs if they are going to be like a lot of the clubs today. They will need to create whole metrics department that can coordinate with scouting department. They are going to have to create whole medical staff and conditioning staff fro players from major league level all way down to their minor league level. So Pohlads are going to be in sticker shock when they see how much more overhead is going to be needed. Also they going to be asked for higher salary range if they are going to start winning now. This is where I think all this gets interesting because this is when high rate of returns they have had are going to go other way and for them to even cover this they are going to have to win right away and even if you do this there is will be sure thing to winning. I will like to see what all you experts will say if this doesn't work and were back to where we were when we were in the metrodome being low revenue team and ownership wanting to minimize there risk and putting a team together again on long term by development. I still believe that ownership sets how team operates in long run and this ownership is willing to only go so far in what they will do. If you look what they said they could spend on players when they first moved into Target field by how they set payroll in Metrodome the Twins Could have increased their pay roll to some where around 130 million. If the Twins had done that invested it in pitching with what they have spent they could have had likes of Price and Greinke both pitching for them with even Santanna what would that have done for the Twins. I have been around to long this turn around is still aways away and may take whole new round of picks again to get back to be a winner. It takes a little luck in finding pitchers and getting them to majors so far Twins have had not much of that lately.