Article: Three-Bagger: Duffey's Debut, Struggling Starters & Catching Depth

[Nick Nelson]

How did Tyler Duffey's 2016 debut go? Are struggling starting pitchers on the hot seat? Did the Twins make their worst roster move of the year this weekend?

 

All covered below.* It came a bit later than expected, and might be a little more short-lived than expected (for now), but Tyler Duffey made his 2016 Twins debut on Sunday, starting in place of Ervin Santana who was sidelined by a sore back.

 

Duffey drew the tough assignment of silencing a red-hot Nationals lineup as the Twins looked for just their second road win in 11 tries. The Doof did his part.

 

He wasn't always hitting his spots, and batters were showing more of a penchant for laying off his curveball compared to what we typically law last year, but the right-hander nevertheless turned in a fine outing. He pitched into the fifth inning with only one run allowed before a comeback liner from Matt den Dekker nailed him in the pitching shoulder and forced him out of the ballgame.

 

Duffey didn't appear to be in great pain and his removal was said to be precautionary. Hopefully that's the case because he definitely made an impression.

 

* Duffey looked like he belongs. That, along with the resounding success of Jose Berrios and Alex Meyer in Triple-A, means that two Twins starters who might otherwise have lengthier ropes to work through early struggles could be on the hot seat.

 

The poor performances of both Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone over the first few weeks have been troubling, but less worrisome when you look at their track records.

 

Gibson, who is 0-3 with a 6.10 ERA through four turns, has issued 12 walks with 11 strikeouts over his first four turns. That's horrible, obviously, but not really out of character for him in the first month of the season:

 

April 2014: 29 IP, 15 K, 14 BB

April 2015: 22.1 IP, 6 K, 12 BB

April 2016: 20.1 IP, 11 K, 12 BB

 

In 2014, he rebounded from the poor start to finish with solid overall numbers, and last year he ended up being Minnesota's best starter. It's not really an excuse, just a fact: Gibson has routinely displayed poor command early on for the Twins and has routinely figured it out.

 

Milone's issues this year have conversely been extremely uncharacteristic. He has typically fared roughly the same against opposing lineups his first, second and third times through – one thing that makes him better suited for starting than relief.

 

That has not been the case this year, to say the least.

 

Tommy Milone, career

1st time through lineup: .270/.325/.443

2nd time through lineup: .265/.306/.417

3rd time through lineup: .270/.309/.433

 

Tommy Milone, 2016

1st time through lineup: .111/.111/.111

2nd time through lineup: .400/.423/.720

3rd time through lineup: .571/.700/1.571

 

Given the extreme nature of his splits in a small sample this month, and his career-long trends, I'm inclined to chalk this up as a fluke over three starts.

 

It's reasonable to expect that both Gibson and Milone will get on track quickly. But the Twins don't have the luxury of being all that patient given their awful start, not to mention the presence of rotation reinforcements in Rochester that are proving to be ready.

 

* We have our early favorite for most inexplicable Twins roster decision of 2016. Over the weekend, the team outrighted catcher John Hicks, presumably to open up a spot on the 40-man roster for an impending David Murphy call-up. Hicks was quickly claimed by the Tigers, so he's gone.

 

Murphy was cut by the Red Sox in spring training and hasn't done anything at Rochester since signing a minor league deal a couple of weeks ago. If the Twins want a veteran outfielder on the roster, that's fine. The question is why on earth they would whittle down what little catching depth they have in order to make room.

 

Hicks, claimed off waivers from the Mariners in the offseason, is a somewhat intriguing player. He's 26, has a good defensive rep, and has shown offensive potential at times. He was also the only backstop on the Twins' 40-man other than Kurt Suzuki and John Ryan Murphy. With neither of those players looking remotely good right now, it's befuddling to say the least that the Twins would let Hicks go when they have far more expendable 40-man players like Pat Dean, who is fifth in line among lefty relievers.

 

Maybe other moves are coming that will make this one a bit easier to understand. I hope so. But as the Twins and many other teams have learned, catching talent is tough to come by these days.

 

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[Madre Dos]

The catching help is playing AAA for the Brewers.  Pinto hit 2 doubles today and got a walk. I think it was a bad move to release him.   I am wondering if  Vavra   is doing his job as hitting coach. My two (Eddie and Miguel) need to take as much blame as the rest of the team.  Oswaldo is doing better than I expected.

[jimbo92107]

Duffey looks about the same as last season. Looks like he's trying to throw a few more change ups, but they're just get-me-over offerings, not corner-clipping heart breakers. His bread and butter still is his variety of curve balls. Even if batters are sitting on Duffey's curve, he throws them with enough variety and precision to make them pay. Meanwhile, if they sit on the curve too much, he can pop his so-so heater by them. It's a pretty good combination, certainly better than what Milone is doing these days.

[ND-Fan]

I hate to be pessimistic but I think this is lost year for the Minnesota Twins. They have dug themselves hole they are not going to dig themselves out of. I see three major problems for the Twins this year and I see no way they are going to get this corrected in time to save this season.

First is Sano has read to much of the press about himself that he has failed to prepare himself for this season and he may get there before the season is over but the Twins were counting on him to carry a big load for this team. He needed to come to season in better shape and he clearly has not done that. Also he will need to prepare himself better on pitchers he's facing and how they are going to pitch him. I do believe he will learn these are important parts of the game or else he will never live up to his potential. 

Second the Twins need to decide if they are going to keep this relief staff in place or are they going to take a risk and start bringing up some this talent. They have held on to many average relievers and have had to put them in high leverage positions where they are going to fail. If this season gets out of hand like I think it going to they need to look at there young talent start moving relief pitchers to give chance to these young relievers and if they don't pan out they will have to look at nest years free agents to fill there needs.

Three they are going to have to decide who of these young outfield candidates they are going to keep and who they are going to trade. I think they are going to need to trade these to fill some of their glaring holes in other positions. I think they are going to need to find a veteran catcher that can hit and my guess is they should bel looking lucroy from Brewers. I would think they would be interested in trading with the Twins like if they put up Arcia and couple low round pitching prospects because by time they are rebuilt he will to be old and will be free agent.

For the Twins fans that thought Tori Hunter didn't have much influence last year look at this year club. They need that leader that keep them on track and also doing little things to win ball games. I just see to many young players worrying about there statistics not doing the little things that wins games. Molly will blow a fuse before this year is over. But from a positive note this going to lay the seeds to these players on how to win in the future.

This going to be long season for us to watch a lot of mistakes and a lot of games that should have been won but lost. We could see this team approach a 90 loss season again unless things start turning around very soon. A number of players could be gone before the season is over like Plouffe, Arcia, Nolasco, Milone, Jepsen, several other relievers, and even more starting pitching. I know everyone thinks it early but were nearly done with a month in the season and if the Twins played 500 ball now till end of year they would have 86 losses. Now if they continue to loose for another couple of weeks like this it will take above 500 baseball to stay away from 90 loss season. So you see we could easily see even more slippage to 100 loss season I never thought this possible but this is situation they are facing. Its a young team that needs to learn how to win they have lots of talent but now they need to learn to do little things that determine winners.

[NoCal]

Playing the Nationals and the Royals is a good calibration for us fans. They are seriously competitive teams, for the post season and the World Series. Note that they do not have three or four virtual rookies in their lineups, and they have deep power pitching staffs. They did have those rookies in their lineups three and four years ago, so perhaps we need to readjust our expectations for this year's Twins. Patience is usually a virtue........

[nytwinsfan]

 

* We have our early favorite for most inexplicable Twins roster decision of 2016. Over the weekend, the team outrighted catcher John Hicks, presumably to open up a spot on the 40-man roster for an impending David Murphy call-up. Hicks was quickly claimed by the Tigers, so he's gone.

 

All you haters are going to eat your words when Pat Dean and J.R.Graham start dominating.

[Platoon]

Nice article, Nick. Duffey did benefit from some "at em" halls, more like rockets, but that is baseball. Your piece did point out the standard Twins conundrum. Too bad to win, too good to get rid of, not enough value to trade? Gibson and Milone are very bad right now. BUT, there historical numbers give us a view of better days to come. So two pitchers are really better than their recent numbers, one of whom is not suitable for the BP? And the other three have stifling veteran contracts? So change is coming how? This is not a critique of either you, or your article. It's an observation on how difficult it will be to substantially change the makeup of this roster. It really is a shambles!

[Platoon]

All you haters are going to eat your words when Pat Dean and J.R.Graham start dominating.

My sarcasm meter has went all the way to the WTF level!

[KGB]

Twins have 22 pitchers on the 40 man roster and Berrios who you would expect to be on the 40 man soon, so I don't see why they are removing catchers from the roster.  Looks like they need to make more decision on what pitchers they want and start clearing space through trades instead of just losing players through waivers.

 

I understand not wanting to keep a player like Kepler on the bench, so adding Murphy to the bench would help.  But if that is the reason, I think Mastroianni would have been better selection.  I pray they are not bring in Murphy with the plan to give him playing time and sitting the younger players.

[Thrylos]

I am not sure how can anyone said that Duffey did his job with just 4 innings pitched.

 

I understand the argument regarding Milone doing worse the second and third time facing a lineup.  If you check Duffey's numbers, you will found an even more pronounced discrepancy.   Thus using the same argument Duffey also belongs in a pen.

 

Duffey has not proven that he can pitch 6 innings in the majors yet.  And he will be an asset in the pen that is really hurting.

 

I would not trust Milone in a contender's pen.  Milone belongs to AAA.

Edited April 25, 2016 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

So, they are willing to lose what tiny little catching depth they have, so they can call up a 34 yo corner "OF"......who else are they going to lose as a result of this? Ugh. Just. Ugh. It's just terrible roster management, imo. 

[The Wise One]

 

I am not sure how can anyone said that Duffey did his job with just 4 innings pitched.

 

I understand the argument regarding Milone doing worse the second and third time facing a lineup.  If you check Duffey's numbers, you will found an even more pronounced discrepancy.   Thus using the same argument Duffey also belongs in a pen.

 

Duffey has not proven that he can pitch 6 innings in the majors yet.  And he will be an asset in the pen that is really hurting.

 

I would not trust Milone in a contender's pen.  Milone belongs to AAA.

wimp pitchers can't take being hit by the ball.  As bad as catchers who can't take bats bouncing off their heads.

[USAFChief]

So, they are willing to lose what tiny little catching depth they have, so they can call up a 34 yo corner "OF"......who else are they going to lose as a result of this? Ugh. Just. Ugh. It's just terrible roster management, imo.

 

At the least, terribly perplexing.

 

Now 39 on the 40 man roster. Only 17 position players.

[Mike Sixel]

 

At the least, terribly perplexing.

Now 39 on the 40 man roster. Only 17 position players.

 

And, they refuse to call up any pitchers, so, um, why do they care if they lose the marginal ones?

[lukeduke1980]

Maybe we're going to trade for another catcher.  AJ?  How low can JRM's batting avg get?

[USAFChief]

Maybe we're going to trade for another catcher.  AJ?  How low can JRM's batting avg get?

We don't do math in public around here, friend.

[Lefty]

I'd like to see some of the young guys step up and turn into a leader instead of wishing we still had someone like Torii Hunter back.  They need to find their identity, and get fed up with losing.  Wishing guys would step up like A.J., Koskie, Dougie baseball, and Torii did back in the day.  These guys are in the same position as those guys were 15 years ago and they need to grind through this mess and find a way.  I don't see how this pitching will get it done.  Need starters deeper into games to save this bullpen.  Being okay with the slow starts of Gibson and Milone is only accepting losing.  They need to be sharp.  All we've done is dug a hole and accepted the fact that it's okay because they did the same last year.  Had they showed up ready to play last year and won a few early we would have made the playoffs.  NEW CULTURE NEEDED.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

At the least, terribly perplexing.

Now 39 on the 40 man roster. Only 17 position players.

 

When you have the kind of firepower and production coming from this lineup, who needs a ton of position players on the 40-man?

 

THERE IS NO PLAN!!! This is becoming ever more apparent.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd like to see some of the young guys step up and turn into a leader instead of wishing we still had someone like Torii Hunter back.  They need to find their identity, and get fed up with losing.  Wishing guys would step up like A.J., Koskie, Dougie baseball, and Torii did back in the day.  These guys are in the same position as those guys were 15 years ago and they need to grind through this mess and find a way.  I don't see how this pitching will get it done.  Need starters deeper into games to save this bullpen.  Being okay with the slow starts of Gibson and Milone is only accepting losing.  They need to be sharp.  All we've done is dug a hole and accepted the fact that it's okay because they did the same last year.  Had they showed up ready to play last year and won a few early we would have made the playoffs.  NEW CULTURE NEEDED.

 

the young guys aren't likely to step up when the SP are mostly long time veterans, as is all but one of the infielders. Until they turn over the roster, this is the leadership you have. the leaders they loved so much, they went out and signed a guy to be a leader last year.

[laloesch]

Time to start turning over the starting staff.  It's simply unacceptable to have slow starting starters year end year out.  Let's give Berrios and Meyer a shot and see what they can do even if the offense doesn't produce.

[markos]

 

 

Duffey drew the tough assignment of silencing a red-hot Nationals lineup as the Twins looked for just their second road win in 11 tries. The Doof did his part.

He wasn't always hitting his spots, and batters were showing more of a penchant for laying off his curveball compared to what we typically law last year, but the right-hander nevertheless turned in a fine outing. He pitched into the fifth inning with only one run allowed before a comeback liner from Matt den Dekker nailed him in the pitching shoulder and forced him out of the ballgame.

Duffey didn't appear to be in great pain and his removal was said to be precautionary. Hopefully that's the case because he definitely made an impression.

Duffey looked mediocre at best. Yes, the Nationals have a good record, but their overall offense is pretty mediocre - their team OPS+ (91) is actually lower than the Twins (95). And their offense is particularly weak when Harper isn't in the lineup, as was the case on Sunday. Duffey ended up with only 1 strikeout, just 5 swinging strikes, allowed 37% of batters to reach base, and gave up a lot of hard contact. 

[clutterheart]

Its time to rip the band aid off and end the pain of 2016.

 

Call up everyone!

Turner, Walker, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Meyer, The Bullpen prospects

Trade/Cut Everyone else!

Fien, Perkins, Jepsen, Suzuki, Dozier, Plouffe, Mauer, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Milone

 

Fire fire fire, trade trade trade

 

Then take the rest of the summer off.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Its time to rip the band aid off and end the pain of 2016.

 

Call up everyone!

Turner, Walker, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Meyer, The Bullpen prospects

Trade/Cut Everyone else!

Fien, Perkins, Jepsen, Suzuki, Dozier, Plouffe, Mauer, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Milone

 

Fire fire fire, trade trade trade

 

Then take the rest of the summer off.  

 

Can't tell if serious........

[nicksaviking]

 

At the least, terribly perplexing.

Now 39 on the 40 man roster. Only 17 position players.

 

I'm comfortable with 17 since we still have Milone. He's basically #18 as he's now a better offensive option than a pitching option.

[nicksaviking]

 

Duffey looked mediocre at best. Yes, the Nationals have a good record, but their overall offense is pretty mediocre - their team OPS+ (91) is actually lower than the Twins (95).......... Duffey ended up with only 1 strikeout

Well yeah, but had Duffey been facing the Twins he would have had double digit Ks despite not even going 5 innings.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Duffey looked mediocre at best. Yes, the Nationals have a good record, but their overall offense is pretty mediocre - their team OPS+ (91) is actually lower than the Twins (95). And their offense is particularly weak when Harper isn't in the lineup, as was the case on Sunday. Duffey ended up with only 1 strikeout, just 5 swinging strikes, allowed 37% of batters to reach base, and gave up a lot of hard contact.

 

I think it's fair to say Duffey did the job. The larger pattern from Duffey yesterday was the same we've seen from other starters: a rocky inning early, followed by scoreless innings. Is that Fangraphs pitch data you are using?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm comfortable with 17 since we still have Milone. He's basically #18 as he's now a better offensive option than a pitching option.

 

or than about 1/3 of the current "hitters".....

[tobi0040]

On my list of worries right now about the Twins, catcher depth is somewhere between 30 and 40. 

 

Catcher talent is in the top ten. If we need to find someone that can match the output of Murphy or Suzuki, we can probably find them.

[Mike Sixel]

 

On my list of worries right now about the Twins, catcher depth is somewhere between 30 and 40. 

 

Catcher talent is in the top ten. If we need to find someone that can match the output of Murphy or Suzuki, we can probably find them.

 

That doesn't make losing him a good idea, in and of itself. The mistakes pile up over time, that's the problem here, imo. Too many mistakes piling up. 

[markos]

 

I think it's fair to say Duffey did the job. The larger pattern from Duffey yesterday was the same we've seen from other starters: a rocky inning early, followed by scoreless innings. Is that Fangraphs pitch data you are using?

I used Baseball-reference, though I relied on my own observations about the hard contact.

 

Within the limited scope of a AAA emergency starter making a spot-start, I completely agree that Duffey did the job. However, I took from Nick's article that he thought Duffey showed something more in the start, so much so that he should be considered for a permanent call-up. That was the point I was trying to counter. He might (might!!) be better than Milone going forward, but that's almost entirely based on Duffey's performance from last year, not his 1 strikeout, lots of contact outing from yesterday. And I don't think he showed anything from this start that would justify putting him ahead of Berrios (or even Meyer?) in the promotion queue. (Though I've been a pessimist with Duffey from the beginning, so I'm probably a little biased here.)