Gladiator Showdown: Aaron Hicks vs John Ryan Murphy

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, this trade is turning out a lot like many people expected... Yes, it's early and yes, a lot can change but I thought it'd be fun to track these two over the course of the season because important things are important.

 

I'm going to use BB-Ref for simplicity's sake. As of 4/16:

 

Hicks:

13 PAs, .083/.154/.083/.237, -29 OPS+, -0.4 WAR

 

Murphy:

11 PAs, .091/.091/.182/.273, -23 OPS+, 0.0 WAR

 

Not a lot of data points but I'm declaring a winner none-the-less. While Hicks is dominant with his .071 isoD, Murphy is raking the ball to all fields with his .099 higher slugging. Despite Hicks' bird-of-prey eye from both sides of the plate, it's pretty clear Murphy has taken an early and possibly commanding lead with a keen power stroke, led by his -23 OPS+, a full -6 OPS+ higher than Hicks' early effort.

 

Our inaugural champion, wearing the white shorts with red and gold piping:

http://d3k2oh6evki4b7.cloudfront.net/req/201604090/images/headshots/0/09077946_mlbam.jpg

[diehardtwinsfan]

You know what would really be nice?  Actually playing Murphy for a few games.  I'd like a backup that actually spells Suzuki and keeps him fresh.  I'd like to see if Murphy can get into a rhythm.

 

I'd actually like to see the team play Arcia  more too... 

 

And I'd actually like to see the team win some games. 

 

I'm probably asking too much

[USAFChief]

More of a cage match than gladiator showdown, no?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

More of a cage match than gladiator showdown, no?

Bah, lay down all the snark you want, Murphy has taken Hicks to the mat and won't look back all season.

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_KoqL_iOR5hg/TGG16MsULNI/AAAAAAAAAAk/Ya3xwxNhDgo/s1600/Intense_Kids_Wrestling.jpg

[TheLeviathan]

Hicks isn't very good.  People are going to have to accept that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Hicks isn't very good.  People are going to have to accept that.

Which is why I wasn't down on the trade. I wasn't particularly fond of it, either. The trade was a few moments of head-scratching, consideration, and then a resounding "meh" after it happened.

 

Both Murphy and Hicks have modest upside (Hicks more than Murphy, probably) but that upside is probably a pipe dream at this point. Whatever Murphy gives to Hicks in upside, he makes up with floor. It was a fair trade of talent... Underwhelming talent.

 

But I'd still like to see Murphy play a lot more than he has this season. May as well find out what you have in him.

[Platoon]

Gladiator fight? More like a pillow fight between two of my Grand Kids. Since neither one is playing that much, apparently both clubs are equally satisfied by the trade!

[TheLeviathan]

 

Which is why I wasn't down on the trade. I wasn't particularly fond of it, either. The trade was a few moments of head-scratching, consideration, and then a resounding "meh" after it happened.

 

 

I actually kind of liked it.  Then again I thought he'd be the 1A in the catching rotation.  I fully admit to that being a fool's hope, but I knew we wouldn't miss Hicks.

 

We're worried about Buxton, Hicks has hundreds of futile at-bats to prove his true talent.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I actually kind of liked it.  Then again I thought he'd be the 1A in the catching rotation.

I still think we'll get to that point, though I'm sure it will take longer than any of want to see.

[Dantes929]

I thought Hicks had a lot of value as a platoon and 4th outfielder.    He has a near .800 OPS against lefies and Arcia has near .800 OPS against righties.     The greatest mistake with Hicks wasn't bringing him up too early but rather letting him pursue switch hitting.     Never made sense to me.   The best I would ever hope for from his left side is the same decrease in splits most batters have facing the same side pitching so the greatest upside was what Hicks would probably have done batting right against righties anyway.   The downside is what has actually happened.    Great value as a platoon/ late inning defense corner outfielder but since no one is using him that way I am fine with the trade.   

[Brock Beauchamp]

I thought Hicks had a lot of value as a platoon and 4th outfielder.

The problem with this statement is that it's damned near impossible to have "a lot" of value when playing the short side of a platoon. That player is useful one, maybe two, times a week for six innings at a time. After that, he will face a righty. Every. Single. Time.

 

Every bullpen in baseball has a righty available at any point in the game. Add in the fact that only ~30% of starters are left-handed and you have a player that gets *maybe* 125 useful PAs in a full season.

[Comrade Bork]

This. This is an elite take. Please update appropriately

[twinsnorth49]

Hicks isn't very good. People are going to have to accept that.

I've certainly made my peace with that, especially now that he plays for the Yankees.

[bird]

Brock, I think you should set up a betting pool for TD members that calls for winners and losers along these lines: Base the thing on some metric that can't be disputed like that WAR thingy. Use a reasonable time period, like maybe May 7th or 8th. Then, collect a dollar from all those who trashed the trade and called for Ryan's immediate ouster. Collect twenty dollars from the six people who lauded the trade. You know, to even the pot just a little. And collect two dollars from yourself, and everyone else who went "meh" or refused to render an opinion based on some goofy notion that they don't know what they're talking about. Distribute that cash immediately so the opinionated members aren't exposed to such a large bet. This might keep the interest up as we go through the next 1-9 stretch.

[jokin]

 

 Base the thing on some metric that can't be disputed like that WAR thingy.

 

 

Did you forget to end this sentence with that /SARC thingy?

[Linus]

The problem with this statement is that it's damned near impossible to have "a lot" of value when playing the short side of a platoon. That player is useful one, maybe two, times a week for six innings at a time. After that, he will face a righty. Every. Single. Time.

 

Every bullpen in baseball has a righty available at any point in the game. Add in the fact that only ~30% of starters are left-handed and you have a player that gets *maybe* 125 useful PAs in a full season.

This a thousand times. Hicks is only a valuable player if he learns to hit lefthanded. Since I don't think that will happen I am fine with the trade. I just wish they would play Murphy

[bird]

 

Did you forget to end this sentence with that /SARC thingy?

 

 

And what's that other one with a name like Grandma's car? DeSoto or something? Brock should use that.

[jimbo92107]

Given the team's performance so far, I see no harm in having Murphy catch 50 percent of the games. Just let Suzuki and Murphy take turns going once through the five-man rotation. We need to find out if Murphy is a good defensive catcher, and keeping Suzuki relatively fresh through the season was the main rationale for this trade, wasn't it?

[Dantes929]

 

The problem with this statement is that it's damned near impossible to have "a lot" of value when playing the short side of a platoon. That player is useful one, maybe two, times a week for six innings at a time. After that, he will face a righty. Every. Single. Time.

Every bullpen in baseball has a righty available at any point in the game. Add in the fact that only ~30% of starters are left-handed and you have a player that gets *maybe* 125 useful PAs in a full season.

Yeah, I realize that but it would still allow Arcia to face mainly righties and have value as a late inning defense guy for Arcia.      .    Just Arcia gets you a worse outfielder and .600 split against lefties.    Just Hicks gets you bad ops against righties.    As a combo you mitigate some defense liability while combining for an..800 OPS.   .     It brings more value to the 4 outfielder spot who usually gets fewer than 125 at bats anyway.   Just my opinion.    I never thought Hicks was mishandled by bringing him up.   I thought he was mishandled by letting him switch hit from the start. 

[DocBauer]

The simple truth is, not every quality/prospect succeeds. And for whatever reason Hicks has struggled, with the exception of a month or so, at the ML level. Where or if there is blame may be irrelevant at this point. Tough to hate this trade no matter the early returns.

 

The problem is not the trade itself, it's what the Twins are doing with it. I get that the primary responsibility of a catcher is calling a game, working with the pitchers, making them comfortable, and being a solid target. And Suzuki seems solid at this, always has been, and has the respect of his manager and his pitchers. He always has. And I get that Murphy is the "new kid in town". But sooner or later, HE HAS TO PLAY. I've heard nothing negative from the Twins, or the broadcasters, in regards to his receiving skills. In fact, I've heard he has very soft hands.

 

I love that Turner has been held back in AA for now, I think he needed it. And I dont think Garver should be discounted after a slower '15. I still like this pair as future back stops for the Twins, but wanting and wishing is not the same as being ready. And they are each probably a good year away. And someone will have to be acquired to play with Murphy for 2017. But for this season, "champion" Murphy needs to be playing. Molitor and the staff need to start trusting him sooner rather than later.

[PseudoSABR]

Well done, Brock.

[Mike Sixel]

Great post. The problem with the trade was that it kept them from finding a real catcher. Aim low. Go low.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Great post. The problem with the trade was that it kept them from finding a real catcher. Aim low. Go low.

i give TR credit for blowing up the AAA and big league catching group. He realized how bad that situation was and made changes. None of the changes are step change improvements, nor are they large enough investments to impede a bigger acquisition.

 

The biggest impediment to a significant improvement is cost, and this is exactly the way TR would solve that, by waiting for the farm. It's the catching equivalent to the rotation. JR Murphy doesn't impede anyone but could be an ok stopgap and good bench catcher.

 

I'm with you, I'd rather have a real good catcher over a plethora of mediocre ones, but that wasn't going to happen

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Great post. The problem with the trade was that it kept them from finding a real catcher. Aim low. Go low.

 

What about Murphy is aiming low?  He has a career .733 minor league OPS while being significantly younger than his competition and put up the same number last year in the majors in his age 23/24 season.  That's well above average for a catcher. I suspect we are a bit spoiled by some guy named Mauer if we think this is aiming low.

 

Look, he may not have a Hicks ceiling with the bat (and as others said, at this point that ceiling is pretty questionable), but you're talking about a guy who can be a legitimate above average starter.

[jimmer]

that OPS last year in the majors was helped by a BABIP that is VERY likely unsustainable (.357).  Even if he could sustain a league average BABIP, that very likely puts him in the high .600 OPS range.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

that OPS last year in the majors was helped by a BABIP that is VERY likely unsustainable (.357).  Even if he could sustain a league average BABIP, that very likely puts him in the high .600 OPS range.

Which puts him right around league average, which is around the ceiling I had on the guy. I never expected an OPS well into the 700s.

 

Given his apparent defensive acumen, a league average bat makes him a competent player.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

that OPS last year in the majors was helped by a BABIP that is VERY likely unsustainable (.357).  Even if he could sustain a league average BABIP, that very likely puts him in the high .600 OPS range.

 

This isn't Danny Santana who posted a BABIP over .400. The ML average is right around .300 and many players can get that consistently into the .320/.330 range.  I agree that .357 a bit high, but that doesn't justify the idea that Terry Ryan was aiming low (which is what I was responding to).  Regression may happen, but it isn't likely going to crush him like it did Santana last season.  Considering also that you're talking about a guy who posted those numbers at age 24 in the majors, who has shown the ability to put up similar numbers in the minors while being quite a bit younger than his competitors, and a guy who is still yet in his prime, an OPS hovering around .750 is a very real possibility, and it's well above average for a major league catcher. 

 

Bottom line is this, Murphy was not some mediocre low upside pickup.  He's got a very realistic shot at being an above average starter at a position of need for the next 4 years or so.  This is a pickup similar to Eduardo Escobar, not Pedro Florimon.  While the results may not end up as good as EE has been, Murphy will very likely contribute better than the league at his position.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Given his apparent defensive acumen, a league average bat makes him a competent player.

 

Which, given the fact that Aaron Hicks can't hit, makes it an interesting option to explore to solve the catching issue.

 

I agree that there were better options over the last few years, but we have more upside in this trade if you can just accept that Hicks isn't any good.

[jimmer]

 

This isn't Danny Santana who posted a BABIP over .400. The ML average is right around .300 and many players can get that consistently into the .320/.330 range.  I agree that .357 a bit high, but that doesn't justify the idea that Terry Ryan was aiming low (which is what I was responding to).  Regression may happen, but it isn't likely going to crush him like it did Santana last season.  Considering also that you're talking about a guy who posted those numbers at age 24 in the majors, who has shown the ability to put up similar numbers in the minors while being quite a bit younger than his competitors, and a guy who is still yet in his prime, an OPS hovering around .750 is a very real possibility, and it's well above average for a major league catcher. 

 

Bottom line is this, Murphy was not some mediocre low upside pickup.  He's got a very realistic shot at being an above average starter at a position of need for the next 4 years or so.  This is a pickup similar to Eduardo Escobar, not Pedro Florimon.  While the results may not end up as good as EE has been, Murphy will very likely contribute better than the league at his position.

Even in the minors, his best BABIP was .327, and that was in A ball.  One more time in the minors he was over .300 (.304).  He mostly sat in the .250-.290 range. He doesn't hit the ball particularly hard nor does he have a lot of speed, so it's unlikely he'll consistently be in that .320/.330 range.  Very unlikely he'll end up being a .750 OPS guy.

 

He has a much better chance of being a career backup than anything close to well above average catcher.  Of course, with our catching situation, he may take a starter spot.

 

And as good as Escobar has been, he posted a 1.5 WAR last year and a 2.4 WAR the year before.  He's on the borderline of being a role-player/solid starter himself, below league average for a shortstop. Now if Murphy doesn't end up working out as well as that, yeah that's not good and not better than league average at his position.

[TheLeviathan]

If we get a 2-2.5 WAR player we already won the trade.