Article: Roster Cuts Narrow Bullpen Competition

[Vanimal46]

 

I'll ask again, where does Darnell fit? He's had a good spring.

IIRC, he was removed from the 40 man and Pat Dean took his place. I don't believe he has a clear path to the majors either. Lots of fringe guys to sift through for our favorite ball club. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think we are too assumptive that Fein is a lock due to his veteran status.

Fien is a lock because he is guaranteed $2.28 million.  We're past the point where we can cut arbitration eligible players for one month termination pay.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Abad is a lock.  By B-Ref's Opposition Quality measure, he's at 8.8, equal to Perkins and third highest among all Twins pitchers.  He was in the pole position before spring training started and has done nothing to lose that spot (and nobody has clearly overtaken him).

 

Runtzler is 7.7, O'Rourke at 6.8.

 

Holy Weird Stat which tells us pretty much nothing. Ha!

 

Is that in the big leagues or is that spring training? Because O'Rourke only has like a half-season. Runtzler was up a bit, but that was about 4-5 years ago. 

 

Just saw the later comment when you mentioned it was for the Spring. Then I'd say that it's also not too strong of a stat because they can only face the batters they're sent in to face. That's up to the manager, and the plan for the day.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Holy Weird Stat which tells us pretty much nothing. Ha!

 

Is that in the big leagues or is that spring training? Because O'Rourke only has like a half-season. Runtzler was up a bit, but that was about 4-5 years ago.

You can read up on it at B-Ref. It is who they are facing in spring training, what level those guys were at last year. A nice shortcutt look at who is get priority reps in ST.

 

Actually does a darn good job of predicting the 25 man roster in most cases.

[bluechipper]

 

Holy Weird Stat which tells us pretty much nothing. Ha!

 

Is that in the big leagues or is that spring training? Because O'Rourke only has like a half-season. Runtzler was up a bit, but that was about 4-5 years ago. 

 

Just saw the later comment when you mentioned it was for the Spring. Then I'd say that it's also not too strong of a stat because they can only face the batters they're sent in to face. That's up to the manager, and the plan for the day.

It's just for spring training. 10 for facing MLB players, 8 for AAA, and on down to 1 for rookie ball. I don't know how useful it really is though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just saw the later comment when you mentioned it was for the Spring. Then I'd say that it's also not too strong of a stat because they can only face the batters they're sent in to face. That's up to the manager, and the plan for the day.

Seth, that is the whole point. If the manager is only sending a guy out to face scrubs, that tells us something about their evaluation of the player.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

 

Graham & Pressly - both rule 5 draft guys who stayed on the 25 man roster at the expense of the MLBt eam are now considered as bullpen only guys?

 

Yeesh.  If thats right, that seems pretty poor.  Hopefully they will keep Graham at least as a Starter in AAA.

 

They were bullpen-only guys by the time they reached the Twins organization. The expectations for Rule V picks are not that high (the occasional Johan Santana gold-strike notwithstanding); if a team gets a good bullpen arm for multiple years from the Rule V, that's a relative success.

And where's the starting spot they need one of those guys to fill?

[USAFChief]

Fien is a lock because he is guaranteed $2.28 million.  We're past the point where we can cut arbitration eligible players for one month termination pay.

I think he was pretty close to a lock even before that date.

[DocBauer]

Pressly. He's earned it. IMO. If he doesn't get hurt last season, are we even talking about Tonkin?

 

Been rooting for Tonkin. I think he's been yo-yo'ed way too much between Rochester and the Twins. But for the most part, the consistency hasn't been there, and isn't there this spring either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Graham & Pressly - both rule 5 draft guys who stayed on the 25 man roster at the expense of the MLBt eam are now considered as bullpen only guys?

When the team is winning less than 70 games a season, does it matter?

 

I'm not in love with either player but stashing a Rule V guy on the 25 man is the kind of move bad teams should make. It's not like they have anything to lose, really.

 

Though obviously I question whether holding on to Graham once the Twins became competitive last season was the smart move. But Pressly, yeah, whatever. It didn't matter.

[bluechipper]

 

Seth, that is the whole point. If the manager is only sending a guy out to face scrubs, that tells us something about their evaluation of the player.

Does it though? It seems kind of random to me, as most bullpen guys are in the 7-8 range. Is there really that much of a difference between 7.8 and 8.3?

[REPETE]

 

When the team is winning less than 70 games a season, does it matter?

 

I'm not in love with either player but stashing a Rule V guy on the 25 man is the kind of move bad teams should make. It's not like they have anything to lose, really.

 

Though obviously I question whether holding on to Graham once the Twins became competitive last season was the smart move. But Pressly, yeah, whatever. It didn't matter.

KEEP GRAHAM!  Even if he pitches lousy, he's got the socks!!!  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Does it though? It seems kind of random to me, as most bullpen guys are in the 7-8 range. Is there really that much of a difference between 7.8 and 8.3?

I didn't say it meant a ton, but it is probably the most useful quantitative measure in ST.

 

Abad is a lock, and his 8.8 represents that. Like any measure, its relative usefulness lessens as the gap narrows, but it can still be useful even if isn't definitive.

[dgwills]

 

He won't be released, but he would go on waivers. It'd be interesting to see if he gets claimed. I would think someone might, and that's fine. If he isn't claimed, he can go to Rochester.

If history has taught us anything he will be claimed by another team and then put back on waivers. He should go through about 3 or 4 teams and be pitching by the all star break. My money is on him ending up on the Toronto AAA affiliate.

[jimbo92107]

 

Graham & Pressly - both rule 5 draft guys who stayed on the 25 man roster at the expense of the MLBt eam are now considered as bullpen only guys?

 

Yeesh.  If thats right, that seems pretty poor.  Hopefully they will keep Graham at least as a Starter in AAA.

I'd like to see JR Graham stretched out as a starter. He's got such a live arm, and a good mix of starter-quality pitches. 

[Ben G]

Fernando Abad is 30 years old.  I don't think he is a rule 5 pick.  The Twins signed him to a minor league deal and I don't think he's on their 40 man roster as of today.

 

Ryan O'Rourke has pitched well this spring and is tough on lefty's.

[DiscGolfer]

I think Tonkin would be cut already if he had options left, not sure if we lose him when he does get cut.

 

I think Pressley makes the cut, O'Rourke seems close but not quite there yet if he gets some consistency at AAA he could be a valuable role player.

Edited March 23, 2016 by DiscGolfer

[lukeduke1980]

If Liam Hendricks can go elsewhere and start throwing 95, could Tonkin go elsewhere and throw 102?

[ThejacKmp]

 

Does it though? It seems kind of random to me, as most bullpen guys are in the 7-8 range. Is there really that much of a difference between 7.8 and 8.3?

 

I think the other issue is that there are two managers. A manager could set up a guy to face the heart of the other team's order only for the other team to start subbing in different guys. It seems like an interesting tool for some insight but not something to make a call on?

[DiscGolfer]

If Rogers goes to AAA to start he could be an insurance options as another LH starter if something were to happen to Milone.  He's no where near the front of the line as a call up to start but developing another LH starter could be a good thing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the other issue is that there are two managers. A manager could set up a guy to face the heart of the other team's order only for the other team to start subbing in different guys. It seems like an interesting tool for some insight but not something to make a call on?

There is a pretty well established order in spring training that most managers follow. It is not super precise, there will be times when a starter comes out early or an unexpected scrub makes an early appearance, but over a month it is probably a pretty good indicator.

 

And I am not suggesting making a call on this data -- it is simply a rough quantification of decisions/priorities already made. I'd use it to say that Kintzler is probably more likely to make the club than his non-roster status would suggest, and that O'Rourke is probably the reverse. But certainly multiple ways this could play out among that group.

[Willihammer]

The OPQual stat has been around for a few seasons at least. I hadn't thought of interpreting it as a measure of the team's own evaluation of the player but it makes perfect sense.

[stringer bell]

Don't count Nolasco out of the rotation. Today: 6 IP   3 H    0 R     0 ER    2 BB     7 K.

 

The battle has been joined.

[DiscGolfer]

Announced during game, Mike Strong sent down and removed from 40 man, 1 open spot now for somebody.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If Rogers goes to AAA to start he could be an insurance options as another LH starter if something were to happen to Milone.  He's no where near the front of the line as a call up to start but developing another LH starter could be a good thing.

 

i'd rather have a better RHP, than a guy just because he's a lefty. I don't think the Mets are worried that too many of their starters are righties......

[Mike Sixel]

 

Don't count Nolasco out of the rotation. Today: 6 IP   3 H    0 R     0 ER    2 BB     7 K.

 

The battle has been joined.

 

Against a AAA lineup, right? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The OPQual stat has been around for a few seasons at least. I hadn't thought of interpreting it as a measure of the team's own evaluation of the player but it makes perfect sense.

Yeah. You can use it to help explain good/bad spring performances, but as we all know there is so much noise in those numbers anyway, it is hard to adjust them to anything too meaningful.

 

So instead I look at it less as another "stat" and more as a record of opportunities/priorities.

[Platoon]

Seth, that is the whole point. If the manager is only sending a guy out to face scrubs, that tells us something about their evaluation of the player.

Or that the manager (FO) is setting the table?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Or that the manager (FO) is setting the table?

Not sure what you mean? Isn't that what I said? They usually use their preferred guys against the other team's preferred guys.

[gopherman23]

Against a AAA lineup, right?

Duffey also faced a AAA lineup and got lit up.