La Velle E Neal: Molitor Leaning Towards Having May in Twins Bullpen

[Rosterman]

I see May fulfilling the function of a...Swarzak. Still getting 100+ innings in the season. Able to move into the rotation if necessary. What it ultimately does to his career...starter or bullpen...is how he performs. He may become the lights out closer of the future with Perkins moving back into setup as he ages (or becomes tradebait).

 

Right now, if May wants a guaranteed roster spot, he HAS to work out of the bullpen. Nolasco, no matter how bad he pitches, will be given more opportunities than he deserves to fail. Milone is a lefty. Duffey will start in the wings at AAA. Rogers may make it as a Duensing replacement (when Duensing was long relief). 

 

Again, if May WANTS to pitch in the majors, today, he has to do it out of the bullpen!

 

 

[jimmer]

 

FIP is a terrible stat to use for Hughes. His peripherals have radically changed. He went from a 2.5 BB/9 to a sub-1.0 BB/9. Previous to 2015, he was an 18-19 K% guy. He dropped to 14.4% in 2015, which coincided with a drop in fastball velo. He went from an extreme hitters park to the relative comfort of Target Field (not to mention switching divisions) and enjoyed extreme HR luck in 2014 and extreme not-luck in 2015.

 

The numbers look the same but it's white noise. How Hughes got there is so radically different the number is basically meaningless. Hughes could be regressing or he could have been injured but the fact that his 2015 FIP was similar to his 2013 FIP means little.

The extreme not-luck you mention in regards to HR in 2015 was 1.68 HR/9 IP.  

 

In 2012 his HR/9 IP was 1.65 and in 2013 it was 1.48.  All seem pretty close.  Almost as if this is a guy who gives up HR and he just went back to doing so in 2015.

 

The one that doesn't is, of course, 2014 when he went way out of character with his 0.69 HR/9 IP.

[bird]

 

"Moving Wade Davis to the bullpen is a waste of 130 innings from a major league starter", said someone somewhere in the KC Royals universe.  

 

Innings are an irrelevant statistic, quality innings that impact wins and losses matter much more.  If May can lock down the 8th inning virtually every night for the Twins this season, then the number of innings he pitches is irrelevant.  

 

Beautifully stated. How many times did we hear and believe that for KC, the game was in the bag if they forged a lead before the 7th inning?

 

It also needn't be a permanent thing. St. Louis has transitioned guys as good or better than Mays from a relief role to the rotation when an opening presented itself.

 

This "decision" is reversible at any time. And it doesn't let Ryan off the hook. Regardless, we need a stellar late-inning reliever from outside the organization. 

[jimmer]

Having May fill Swarzak's role would be the worst thing for him.  Bad enough if he isn't starting like he should, but if he's not going to start, use him in the 7th or 8th.

[tobi0040]

Bird,

 

I don't think this is an easily reversible decision. We kept hearing may was not stretched out so we went to AAA for depth. If he is the long reliever yes. But if he starts as the 8th inning guy in April I think that is where he stays, especially after TR keeps up the dumpster dive approach to the pen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The extreme not-luck you mention in regards to HR in 2015 was 1.68 HR/9 IP.

 

In 2012 his HR/9 IP was 1.65 and in 2013 it was 1.48. All seem pretty close. Almost as if this is a guy who gives up HR and he just went back to doing so in 2015.

 

The one that doesn't is, of course, 2014 when he went way out of character with his 0.69 HR/9 IP.

That was one point of many used to illustrate how Hughes' FIP isn't relevant.

 

And you don't think it's a bit problematic that a guy puts up a career high HR rate in TF after pitching in Yankee Stadium his entire career?

 

FIP is a useful stat but it's not useful in comparing Phil Hughes' 2013 and 2015 seasons. The guy is either in decline or was injured. I think it's the latter but that doesn't validate a FIP comparison to his career norms.

[SwainZag]

 

Why do so many posters want May in the rotation instead of Berrios on Opening Day?
Berrios is the Twins #1 pitching prospect and May was NEVER that.
Berrios is considered MLB-ready, far beyond his age.
IMO, keep May in the pen until Burdi, Chargois, Rogers, Reed and ? arrive. Rotation should be Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Duffey and Berrios, until May can be moved in from the bullpen to replace one of the above.

 

I just think that most Twins fans already know that Berrios won't come out of the gate with the Twins with all the other options on the club and under contract.  I'd love to see him start the season in the rotation, but do believe there's a tiny chance at it actually happening.

[Halsey Hall]

 

I see May fulfilling the function of a...Swarzak. Still getting 100+ innings in the season. Able to move into the rotation if necessary. What it ultimately does to his career...starter or bullpen...is how he performs. He may become the lights out closer of the future with Perkins moving back into setup as he ages (or becomes tradebait).

 

Right now, if May wants a guaranteed roster spot, he HAS to work out of the bullpen. Nolasco, no matter how bad he pitches, will be given more opportunities than he deserves to fail. Milone is a lefty. Duffey will start in the wings at AAA. Rogers may make it as a Duensing replacement (when Duensing was long relief). 

 

Again, if May WANTS to pitch in the majors, today, he has to do it out of the bullpen!

Why do you say Duffey will start in AAA, when TR has already said he'd be in the Twins rotation?  And he's earned that spot.  He'll start there until he shows he doesn't belong there, which may be never.

[kellyvance]

I kind of like having a May Day reliever.

[stringer bell]

The problem for the Twins is three big contracts to starting pitchers nearing or past 30, where they can be expected to decline (Thank you Captain Obvious). None of those guys is an ace or even close, unless Hughes 2014 can be replicated. After those three guys there are two guys in their late 20s that have had some success (Milone and Gibson). In my book (but not my preference) that is the five starters that start 2016 for the Twins. Duffey and May could both end up in the bullpen, although I think Duffey could and should be in the rotation. 

 

We've had discussions on upside in other threads. I believe May, Duffey and Berrios could be better than any of the five more veteran starters. I agree that Berrios is a near lock to start 2016 in upstate New York and I don't think that's a totally bad thing. How do you clear a path for the best arms and still have the needed depth? I expect one starter will be a long man and starter-in-waiting (no Rule V guys to hide) and I think Trevor May has an important late-inning role in the bullpen. My opinion based mostly on observation is that he is no more than marginally better than anyone else in the rotation and can be a real weapon in the 'pen. It's too early to say for sure, but he may be another guy like Nolasco that underperforms vs. his FIP, for whatever reason. Despite the big, strong body I also recall too many starts where he struggled to get through the sixth.

 

May was close to unhittable in several of his relief appearances. Having him be a tag team with an undetermined quality lefty, Jepsen and Perkins could be pretty dynamic.

[Shane Wahl]

 

As of today, this would be my rotation:

 

Hughes - Lock, Written in Pen

Gibson - Lock, Written in Pen

Santana - Lock, Written in Pen

 

May - Lightly Penciled

Duffey - Lightly Penciled

 

Milone and Nolasco would enter camp looking in from the outside. If one or more of those guys are injured/out of shape/whatever in mid-February, then you alter plans as necessary.

 

This rotation needs upside. Those guys bring a mix of upside and consistency. If the first three guys pitch to something resembling career norms and the latter two guys pitch as they did in 2015 - or something close to it - that's a solid rotation. It won't win any awards but it's the kind of rotation that can keep a team in contention through a season (never mind the possible addition of Berrios).

 

This. No argument can be rationally conceived against it!

[sane09]

This. No argument can be rationally conceived against it!

Since when has rationality been a requirement? or even a goal?

[Shane Wahl]

I don't even understand how Milone hasn't been traded already.

 

The range of the potential staff at least early, if not at the beginning (barring new additions, I know it is early):

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

Milone

Nolasco

Graham

Pressly

Fien

Boshers

May

Jepsen

Perkins

 

to

 

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

May

Duffey

Graham

Pressly

Rogers

Chargois

Burdi

Jepsen

Perkins

 

My guess is that something in the middle happens: Nolasco to the bullpen, May in the bullpen, O'Rourke/Boshers instead of Rogers, Fien, Graham, and Pressly are competing for two spots in the bullpen, etc.

[magiklair]

 

Its not fun to think about May in the bullpen

Its more fun to think of a Rotation that looks like:

Santana

Hughes

Duffey

May 

Berrios

 

I like probably the best

 

[Riverbrian]

May as a starter or a reliever is an interesting discussion. I understand age and potential but I thought May did a super job out of the pen. I liked him as a starter at times but there was some inconsistency.

 

I'm OK with May in the Pen and I still want Terry Ryan to get a couple more top end relievers and I'm OK trading some farm to get them. Just to join Mr. May in the pen... just to make the pen real strong. 

 

I have to admit that I'm puzzled at the attitude of some toward Milone. 

 

Milone was one of our top starters last year. Yes that's an indictment on the overall SP rotation strength but Milone was pretty alright. 

 

Duffey was also a godsend in the rotation... He needs to start the season in the rotation just to see if he can keep doing that thing with his curveball. 

 

Santana

Hughes 

Gibson

Duffey

Milone 

 

 

 

Bullpen

 

Perkins

Jepsen

May

Big Name Trade Target

Big Name Trade Target

Best of who else we got

Long relief -- Nolasco

 

That's what I got

[sane09]

Big Name Trade Target

Big Name Trade Target

Suggestions:

Michael Theofanopoulos and Trevor Hildenberger.....TWO BIG NAMES!

[h2oface]

Phil Hughes (and even in 2014) is historically horrible the first month of the season. Always. (Maybe there was one year with the Yankees he was not?) Why not let Hughes start the season in the pen for the opening month. He can step in the rotation when the first pitcher goes down. He can get warmed up in the pen, because he never is ready to start the season. To keep having him pitch horribly in April is repeating something that doesn't work, and is just not smart. You could miss the playoffs by a game or two, and those games in April could be the games you needed. Last year, Hughes was not only horrible in April, but he had to pitch against the other teams' top starters. What a mess. May as well bang your head against the wall. 

 

Since the Twins don't have anything close to a #1, why even start the top of the rotation against one at the beginning of the season. Let Duffey start the first game, and line up Santana and down the line against other clubs lessor pitchers. It is a simple way to maximize favorable match ups for the start of the season. Perhaps sacrifice the opening game (and you could get lucky) and line up favorable pitching match ups. The marathon doesn't need to be approached like a short post season series. It would be a benefit throughout the whole first month, especially since the Twins' rotation is 3's (maybe), and 4s and 5s. And after the first month, maybe Hughes will be ready to pitch, because he never is in April.

 

I don't really care where they put May. I see benefits from both. With the rotation Ryan has assembled, I think a shut down pen is very important, and I think Perkins will be toast by June this year. Meyer should start the season in the pen.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't even understand how Milone hasn't been traded already.

 

 

I'm not surprised, the last of the big time pitchers just signed in Johnny Cueto. The Twins may have to wait until they see which teams miss out on the likes of Leake, Gallardo, Chen and Kazmir.

 

Of course there's also the distinct fear that the Twins still believe they need a token lefty in the rotation. 

[markos]

 

I think you are really digging too deeply into splits- every pitcher is going to be worse with runners on, and moreso for starters than relievers. But I'll indulge you. We really aren't comparing May to the general MLB population, are we? We are discussing whether or not he belongs in the Twins rotation. If I had to guess, that isn't exactly a Twins' pitch to contact (i.e.,try to induce double plays avoid walks and passed balls/wild pitches) philosophy. So I would expect to see other pitchers the Twins developed with the same problem and also the players the Twins brought in to have that gap expand after they've been indoctrinated. 

This split is something that has plagued May since his days with the Phillies. 

 

Regardless, we are kind of getting in the weeds here. The point I was trying to get across is that I don't think it is an open-and-shut case that May is one of the top-5 starters on this team, much less the best that his 3.35 FIP might indicate. Some of May's particular outliers (men-on-base splits, high BABIPs) that he has consistently demonstrated over the past 8 seasons will cause his FIP to overstate his actual run-prevention abilities. Not by a lot, but by enough that the gap between him and someone like Milone isn't as large as it might seem.

 

Other stats back this up. Baseball Prospectus's DRA ranked May as only their 5th best starter last season:

 

Santana 3.79
Gibson   3.88
Duffey    3.99
Milone    4.03
May        4.43
Pelfrey   4.54
Hughes  4.98

 

Further, as we project next season, we should really be looking at xFIP rather than FIP. And xFIP isn't nearly so kind to May (3.96 as a starter last year), and the gap between May and Milone is pretty tiny -just 0.26, or basically 5 runs over the full season.

 

We will know more once more projection systems release their numbers for next year (ZIPS, PECOTA, etc). Right now we only have Steamer on Fangraphs, and unfortunately they only project May's numbers as a reliever. 

 

Right now, my personal 'best rotation' would be:

 

Hughes (assuming full health)

Gibson

Santana

Berrios

Duffey

 

I have May and Milone as my #6 and #7, with Duffey, May and Milone all very close.

 

 

[kab21]

 

May has 25 starts, he shouldn't be shunned to the bullpen at this point.  

 

The Twins mistakes are compounding now: no reliever signed so now we shuffle May down.  2016 should be about seeing just what May's ceiling really is as a starter.

So if this was the team that you were dealt (no significant RP additions) you would still roll with Fien as the 7th inning guy and an uncertain Perkins as closer?  I don't like it but this is how the pieces fit together for this roster.  There is a lot of rotation depth and nothing in the bullpen.

 

The frustrating thing is the Milone is going to cost 4ish M in arb this year (more next year) and he doesn't really have a solid place on the team (5th/6th starter with Berrios coming up).  A solid RP would only cost 3/20 (or so).

[ThejacKmp]

 

On the May topic, I don't have any problem with this.

 

In my opinion, he can be an average major league starter, probably a four, with a chance to be a three. There's value in that. But, he also has a better chance of being a dominant 8th (or 9th) inning guy and soon. 

 

I think that the Twins are now in Win-Now mode, as opposed to building, so I think this is the right plan for the 2016 Twins. It also is likely the best move for Trevor. 

 

Santana is a given, and rightfully so.

Hughes is a given, and rightfully so. Obviously he's going to have to show that 2015 was an off year and that 2014 was closer to what he can be. We'll see.

Gibson is a given, and rightfully so.

Duffey SHOULD BE a given for opening day. I think he earned that.

Milone is a given, unless he's traded.

Berrios should be up soon. 

Nolasco isn't a given for anything. I think they're past caring about the contract at this point.

 

Easy choice... 

 

I very much hope that they are willing to put Nolasco in the pen. I don't think he has a lick of trade value and there's a chance he could be a nice middle innings guy in the pen. He throws 91-92 MPH so if he can add a bit from the pen he could be okay. He provides some nice starting depth as well and if he's decent as a reliever, maybe he has some trade value next season? It's a big contract but stranger things have happened.

 

I also don't think we'll get a Pelfrey meltdown from him either - say what you will about Old Rick but he showed a ton of character last year when he rehabbed hard down the stretch just in case the Twins needed him. Not everyone would do that. He's not going to love being in the pen but I think he'll handle it gracefully.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I just think that most Twins fans already know that Berrios won't come out of the gate with the Twins with all the other options on the club and under contract.  I'd love to see him start the season in the rotation, but do believe there's a tiny chance at it actually happening.

 

Best case scenario is that Berrios gets the first three to four weeks in AAA for service time considerations (which is the right thing to do) and then slots in for whoever is injured/ineffective first. Even if he is insanely lights out in spring training, it still makes no sense not to preserve that extra year of team control since the difference over three or four starts between Berrios and even Nolasco is so minimal.

 

My call:

 

Santana

Hughes

Duffey

Gibson

Milone

 

May and Nolasco in the pen and Berrios warming in the minors.

 

Only difference I could see is if the Twins move Milone, in which case Nolasco is in the rotation with a super short leash. That actually might be preferable if your goal is for Berrios to debut ASAP.

[Willihammer]

All I know is if May is going to relieve then TR has to surround him with more talent or Molly is going to burn him out. May should never be pitching back-to-back-to-back days, and not back-to-back either if it can be helped.

[h2oface]

Putting Santana.... Johan... in the pen for a while at the start of his career sure didn't hurt his ability to start. You never know what will happen. Maybe Sano can pitch from the pen. He has a great arm, right? And he is in his second year out from Tommy John, so his arm is ready to perform the best it ever has. He won't even have far to go from the outfield to get warmed up. I mean, sure, he has never pitched before, but he is athletic enough, and it will just give him something else to try that he has never done before and help the team fulfill a need. We certainly have a need for a good arm in the pen. May as well start doing it in the Majors, too. Anything to get him in the game. Trevor May will be there to give him pointers.

[sane09]

I mean, sure, he has never pitched before, but he is athletic enough,

]

What does "athletic" have to do with pitching?

I have two words for you............Bartolo Colon.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't even understand how Milone hasn't been traded already.

 

My conclusion is that the Twins wrongly believe there is an MLB rule that you must have a lefty starter in your rotation.  Only thing I could come up with.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Was May's back trouble last year blamed somewhat on his reliever routine?  Maybe that's coming from the player and his perspective is skewed on it, but he often wasn't available down the stretch.  Maybe that will get better, but it suggests he might be more limited in the pen than we would like from our potential bullpen ace.

[bird]

 

Maybe that's the angle, maybe not.  Molitor was pretty outspoken back in his playing days, so he could be spilling the insider beans so to speak.  Terry Ryan however is a double talker so I take what he says with a grain of salt.

 

Ryan is as straight a shooter as you'll find in a GM. Could be a comprehension issue for the listener here.

[bird]

 

Bird,

I don't think this is an easily reversible decision. We kept hearing may was not stretched out so we went to AAA for depth. If he is the long reliever yes. But if he starts as the 8th inning guy in April I think that is where he stays, especially after TR keeps up the dumpster dive approach to the pen.

 

Yeah, probably so mid-season. I was thinking more about between now and February, and about the following season when a rotation spot might open for him and some of the relief prospects are ready to contribute.

[Willihammer]

My conclusion is that the Twins wrongly believe there is an MLB rule that you must have a lefty starter in your rotation.  Only thing I could come up with.

I think there is someothing to that. Just going from memory its hard to think of a team that hasn't had a lefty jammed into it. Albers, Pedro Hernandez, Duensing, Perkins, Diamond, 41 y/o Terry Mulholland, etc. Obviously a couple of (big) hits too.

And I know I have read Ryan say something to the effect of "being a lefthander gives ____ an advantage to make the rotation in my book."

If I get time I'll maybe look up the stats or LH vs RH starters over the years and blog the results.