Article: Bullpen Strategy: What Would You Do?

[Shane Wahl]

In Rochester, Achter sets up for Meyer. I think pushing Meyer into that role might be good for him.

[rico7961]

I would try to fortify the bullpen by acquiring 1 arb-prearb reliever through trade (Will Smith or Ken Giles). Then I would sign a Ryan Madson, Tony Sipp, Matt Thornton, Tyler Clippard, or Joakim Soria in FA.   I would try to get one righty and one lefty. This would really stabilize a pen with Perkins, Jepsen and May already in it and let you bring up the young guns and start them out in low leverage situations throughout the season. Plus, you aren't breaking the bank by only signing 1 FA.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not trying to be picky (although I know that I am ), I just think there are very interesting names in the multi-year FA reliever market that I'd like to see discussed and debated, and over-estimating their cost tends to preclude that discussion.  The only one you mention in the article is O'Day, for example, when I think the entire group of eight I listed above is worthy of discussion.

 

EDIT: I do see you also mention Mark Lowe, albeit very briefly and presumably on the assumption he'd sign a one-year deal.

 

in the handbook, we had Lowe with a two-year deal, but maybe he takes one. And, the purpose of this article isn't to say that I'm right and everyone is wrong. I look at it as an area to debate the current makeup, guys we believe have a future with the organization (or not), and based on that, the merits of signing guys to one-year deals OR going out and getting the big name relievers. That's all in play when the article says, What would you do? I don't pretend my theory is right, or wrong... 

 

So, let's keep the discussion going.

[Seth Stohs]

 

If you don't like 3 year deals for relievers, why wouid you consider extending Jepsen?

 

I'm not advocating it, just saying that it's worth discussion. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

But do you maybe smell something different here, Seth? I think Rogers can be successful as a starter, and most of 2015 demonstrated that. I wonder if there is something brewing trade-wise from the current rotation (Gibson, namely). Berrios and Rogers, then, would be the backup plan for Hughes-Santana-Nolasco-May-Duffey (Milone coming back seems unlikely to me).

 

I think Rogers needs a better changeup, to help him get RHB out... Otherwise, dominant bullpen guy.,

[mikelink45]

I like a simple approach - find out what we have - keep rotating the young players until their role is determined.  No FA, no multi-year contracts.  We have enough clogging the pipeline and a barely over 500 record is not sufficient to move from our internal options. 

[kab21]

Adding to the bullpen really depends on other moves that the Twins make due to cash available and May being in the rotation or bullpen. 

 

Let's assume that the Twins have made their big moves and keep May in the bullpen (not what I want).  Based on that I sign the best guy that will take 2/12 (ballpark).  I might also look at signing a cheaper LOOGY.  That gives the Twins a pretty deep bullpen with potential in AAA/AA although it isn't necessarily dominant at the backend.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I would sign one FA RP, whichever you can get for 2 years you like the most.

 

I would move Rodgers to the bullpen as my LOOGY and sometimes more.

 

I would move Milone to RP, as a guy that pitchers 1-2 innings fairly often, to bridge from the 3rd time through a batting order to the shorter RPs.

 

I would like May more as a starter, but I don't see a clear path to that......

[Platoon]

I think May has the stuff to be either a successful starter, or reliever. My only question with him as a reliever is health. He seemed to struggle with that issue in the pen last year. Plus I think deep down he doesn't want to relieve. I realize that is not necessarily his call, but it's still a factor.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

in the handbook, we had Lowe with a two-year deal, but maybe he takes one. And, the purpose of this article isn't to say that I'm right and everyone is wrong. I look at it as an area to debate the current makeup, guys we believe have a future with the organization (or not), and based on that, the merits of signing guys to one-year deals OR going out and getting the big name relievers. That's all in play when the article says, What would you do? I don't pretend my theory is right, or wrong... 

 

So, let's keep the discussion going.

No problem.  I am not arguing your personal theory, but your article asks multiple questions and the framing of those questions matters.  From reading your article, one might conclude that there are no options between $20+ mil guarantees and one year deals, as you really don't lay any of those out for the community to discuss.

 

Fortunately I am here with an absurd volume of posts on the topic to fill the void though!    Thanks for getting the ball rolling, bullpen is obviously a great topic.

[DJL44]

Kevin Jepsen might be interested in a two-year $10M contract when settling his arbitration case.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So what does the community think of these FA options, on these MLBTR predicted contracts?  (Lowe's contract I actually just inferred from his MLBTR rank.)

 

O'Day 3/22.5
Soria 3/18
Clippard 3/18
Bastardo 3/15
Madson 3/15
Kelley 2/12
Sipp 3/12

Lowe 2/10

 

Personally, I like Sipp and Lowe, although almost any of these would be justifiable and easily affordable offers in my book.

 

Given the rumored demands around O'Day and Soria right now, and the resulting delay as they wait out the market, I'd probably also offer Madson too, and possible Kelley and Bastardo, in an effort to get someone locked in quickly.

Edited November 20, 2015 by spycake

[DJL44]

I think converting Nolasco to relief has real potential. At least it seems to have more potential than continuing to use him in the rotation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kevin Jepsen might be interested in a two-year $10M contract when settling his arbitration case.

That's not bad, but if you are looking to guarantee that money for a reliever in 2017 anyway, I'd rather get an extra arm of that caliber for 2016 in the process while we wait for some of these internal options to actually arrive (none are likely ready to contribute to the MLB pen from day 1 in 2016).

 

Actually, I'd be tempted to lock in Jepsen to 2/10 now and still get another multi-year FA from my list above.  Even if some internal options emerge so we don't necessarily need him, having Jepsen on effectively a 1/5 deal for 2017 would be an asset that we could likely trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think converting Nolasco to relief has real potential. At least it seems to have more potential than continuing to use him in the rotation.

Lots of things have more potential than continuing to use Nolasco in the rotation.

[TheLeviathan]

I really like Lowe at 2/10, I'd pounce on that.

[DocBauer]

What does the bullpen need? It needs 2 guys, RH and LH. We have some really good young bullpen arms over the next season or two...we all know the names...but unlike last season, I, as the GM would not just sit still waiting for these youngsters to arrive. (which is what I think TR did last season)

 

Assuming Nolasco is moved...and I think he will be...and assuming Berrios will initially begin the season in AAA...possible but not certain...I would sign one high quality RH FA for the pen. I would prefer a 1 or 2 year deal, but for someone like Soria or O'Day I'd seriously consider a third. There are various options, not going to go in to all of the various possibilities.

 

Bullpen:

 

Perkins

Jepsen

FA TBN

Tonkin (deserves a shot, Pressly has an option)

Fien (healthy, removed from high pressure 8th inning work, I like him still)

Milone (I am liking the idea of him being a multi-purpose swing man)

Runzler (bit of a fingers crossed here-but hopeful)

 

When Berrios arrives, barring injury, someone has to move to the pen. Probably May or Duffey. (at least for the remainder of this season-unless you move someone) The team will have the option of trading/moving the weakest link in the bullpen at this time. Or, for once, trade from a surplus.

 

 

 

 

[Willihammer]

This isn't a very sabermetric answer but I've seen Thornton meltdown against the Twins in big games for the Sox so I wouldn't want him on the roster if I had WS ambitions.

 

edit: Thornton is also 39 and doesn't strike anyone out so there's a more sabermetric / rational objection.

Edited November 20, 2015 by Willihammer

[Vanimal46]

 

So what does the community think of these FA options, on these MLBTR predicted contracts?  (Lowe's contract I actually just inferred from his MLBTR rank.)

 

O'Day 3/22.5
Soria 3/18
Clippard 3/18
Bastardo 3/15
Madson 3/15
Kelley 2/12
Sipp 3/12

Lowe 2/10

 

Personally, I like Sipp and Lowe, although almost any of these would be justifiable and easily affordable offers in my book.

 

Given the rumored demands around O'Day and Soria right now, and the resulting delay as they wait out the market, I'd probably also offer Madson too, and possible Kelley and Bastardo, in an effort to get someone locked in quickly.

 

I'm with you on both Sipp and Lowe. Offer them both 2 year contracts and fill the rest with minor league contracts to see which RP rises to the occasion. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This isn't a very sabermetric answer but I've seen Thornton meltdown against the Twins in big games for the Sox so I wouldn't want him on the roster if I had WS ambitions.

 

edit: Thornton is also 39 and doesn't strike anyone out so there's a more sabermetric / rational objection.

Also Thornton looks like he's been a pretty strict LOOGY the past few years.  Not a bad thing to have, but hard to be a difference-maker in that role.

 

If you are willing to guarantee $4 million for one year of that (particularly at age 39 with the collapse risk that entails), why not just add $6 mil and get 2 years of Lowe, or $11 mil and get 3 years of Madson?

 

Our safest bets for immediate internal bullpen upgrades right now would probably be Rogers or O'Rourke emerging in a strict LOOGY role anyway.

 

Judging by his age and own trade history, Thornton might prove more difficult to move midseason than the above FA names too.

[Kwak]

Nolasco/Milhone is the 5th starter and the other is the long-relief/spot starter.  These two two might flip-flop through the season.

 

Late inning relief specialists:  Jepsen, Perkins, May.

 

Three guys for extra-innings, mop-ups, and all else:  from the RP pool and already on the team.  These guys have options--so use those options.  Those RPs that succeed stay, others get replaced--pretty much what everybody else in baseball does with the marginal players.  

 

Spend a ton of money on a RP?  Huh?  They pitch 60-80 innings a year.  Use that money (plus the rest of the FA budget) to acquire someone who will contribute much more.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Spend a ton of money on a RP?  Huh?  They pitch 60-80 innings a year.  Use that money (plus the rest of the FA budget) to acquire someone who will contribute much more.

I don't know what our FA budget is exactly, but a single ~$5 mil AAV commitment for the next 2-3 years probably doesn't materially affect it.  While they don't pitch many innings, 2015 showed us how important they are and how difficult it can be to add outside upgrades midseason.

[James Richter]

 

 

Spend a ton of money on a RP?  Huh?  They pitch 60-80 innings a year.  Use that money (plus the rest of the FA budget) to acquire someone who will contribute much more.

Considering that 2 of those guys can be had for Nolasco money and then deployed only in high-leverage situations, I think the cost-benefit is pretty good. And read this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-extra-value-of-having-an-elite-bullpen/

[USAFChief]

I don't know what I WOULD do, but what I wouldn't do is count on internal options to provide a playoff worthy bullpen in 2016.

[Dr. Evil]

Aroldis Chapman end of problem.

[jorgenswest]

I think Meyer will be a contributor. I think we will see an AFL guy or two by midsummer. They need to get one more solid reliever to start the season. Fien is no longer reliable and doesn't have upside. I think they can get a solid younger reliever for Plouffe to add to May, Jepsen and Perkins innings 7-9. Maybe someone like Smith from the Brewers.

 

 

[kab21]

 

I think converting Nolasco to relief has real potential. At least it seems to have more potential than continuing to use him in the rotation.

this is the answer that everyone wants and yet everyone expects that Nolasco will at a minimum have a tenuous hold on a rotation spot somehow. 

[stringer bell]

Of the current options, I like May in the bullpen and Milone in the rotation. Milone was quite effective and also is the only left handed candidate for the rotation. We all know that Milone doesn't throw hard and I would like to see velocity in the Twins' relievers. As a starter, Milone struggled often for the first inning or two before settling down, not optimum for a reliever.

 

May has good stuff as a starter, but devastating stuff as a reliever. He would figure as a late-inning, high leverage guy, exactly what the Twins need. Some guys stuff really "play up" in the bullpen, and that is what I see in Trevor May.

 

I'd like to see the Twins add one good arm through free agency or a trade and go with Perkins, Jepsen, May for the late innings, plus Pressly and Tonkin and a starter refugee to fill out the bullpen.

[old nurse]

Axford or Boyer?  Colorado DFA Axford, so he is available. He made 2.6 million last year. and is arb eligible.  2.7 road era, so escaping Colorado is a plus.

I should add he is 6'5" so he fits the Ryan mold of tall pitchers

[Otto von Ballpark]

Doogie Wolfson tweets that the Twins don't have interest in Thornton:

 

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/668453949855285248