Escobar, Dozier and Plouffe: Extension talk

[jorgenswest]

So much has been discussed about possible extensions to Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe. Extensions though the Twins had them under control into their 30s.

 

Eduardo Escobar enters the last weekend of the season matching Brian Dozier's OPS at 757. He matches him despite being 2 years younger. He is doing it at a more premium position. Unlike Plouffe and Dozier, the Twins do not have team control through his prime (ends at 29).

 

Should the Twins try to extend Escobar this winter and buy his first two free agency seasons? What might that extension look like?

 

Are his age 25 and age 26 seasons an aberration? They are far superior to the age 25/26 seasons put up by Plouffe and Dozier.

[Linus]

Nope. A perfect situation for the Twins. Keep him year to year for a couple years and deal him when Gordon or Vielma are ready. He's not special enough to commit long term to.

[DuluthFan]

Escobar has three years of arbitration coming up. He has yet to play a full season at shortstop. There are several prospects working their way through the minors. It is not yet time to consider offering him a guaranteed multi-year contract.

 

And IF he is offered a multi-year deal, you would also have to then consider moving Polanco and Santana since they would not have clear paths to the majors. Are you ready to make decisions on Polanco and Santana right now? Signing Escobar to a long term deal would mean decisions would also have to be made on them as well.

[darin617]

Dozier is signed through 2018 4yr $20M.

[DaveW]

No point, Ryan aparently isn't a fan of buying out free agent years anyways, he'd much rather just guarantee the arb years for some bizzarre reason.

[jorgenswest]

Dozier is signed through 2018 4yr $20M.

He was not extended. They already had him under team control through 2018. Escobar will hit free agency at a younger age. He has been more productive through age 26. He might be a better candidate to buy years of free agency.

[kab21]

The difference is track record.

 

Escobar has 900 good MLB AB's the last 2 seasons and everything before that is rather underwhelming.  His isoP this season looks like a complete fluke.  He has however done enough to go into next season as the starter. 

 

If the Twins started handing out extensions to every player that had 2 seasons that were far above expectations then they would have a roster clogged with mediocre players that regressed but were signed to long term contracts.

[Shane Wahl]

The Twins should always wait until the year before they have to actually touch these contracts to do something.

[TheLeviathan]

Sweet Jesus....more unnecessary extensions.

[Kwak]

Place Escobar under a multi-year contract--@##$$% NO!!  He is a marginal SS, who might well revert to a liability next year.  He's not going anyplace anyway.  KC's Escobar is a far better candidate for [them] to contract than MN's Escobar.

[jorgenswest]

I am not sure it is appreciated how rare it has been for a Twin shortstop to put up an OPS+ above league average. Twin shortstops with an OPS+ over 100

 

Smalley 4 (76,78,79,80)

Versalles 2 (64,65)

Cardenas 2 (68,71)

Escobar 2 (14,15)

Guzman 1 (01)

 

In the 33 seasons between Escobar and Smalley there was one of those seasons. That performance has to at least deserve a little consideration for an extension. 

[Lonestar]

 

KC's Escobar is a far better candidate for [them] to contract than MN's Escobar.

Help me understand that.

[blindeke]

 

 

 

If the Twins started handing out extensions to every player that had 2 seasons that were far above expectations then they would have a roster clogged with mediocre players that regressed but were signed to long term contracts.

 

like that would ever happen...

[Lonestar]

 

 

Escobar has three years of arbitration coming up. He has yet to play a full season at shortstop. There are several prospects working their way through the minors. It is not yet time to consider offering him a guaranteed multi-year contract.

I would wait at least 1 more year.  I could wait 2.  But Gordon coming out of A ball and Velma coming out of A+ ball are not the reasons not to extend.

[Lonestar]

 

 

And IF he is offered a multi-year deal, you would also have to then consider moving Polanco and Santana since they would not have clear paths to the majors. Are you ready to make decisions on Polanco and Santana right now? Signing Escobar to a long term deal would mean decisions would also have to be made on them as well.

The Twins have to make a decision on Santana anyway.  He will be out of options.  Is he good enough to be the utility infielder on a team competing to go to the World Series?

 

I'm not sure what Polanco does that's better than Escobar.  I'm pretty sure it's not play shortstop.  Polanco is ticketed for AAA so he is not yet blocked.  He is more likely blocked by Dozier than Escobar.  Is he really blocked by Dozier in terms of true talent?

 

I think Dozier is very tradeable, but that would make an interesting discussion now.  I suspect that Escobar would be very tradeable, but I can afford to wait a year to find out/commit.

[kab21]

 

I am not sure it is appreciated how rare it has been for a Twin shortstop to put up an OPS+ above league average. Twin shortstops with an OPS+ over 100

 

Smalley 4 (76,78,79,80)

Versalles 2 (64,65)

Cardenas 2 (68,71)

Escobar 2 (14,15)

Guzman 1 (01)

 

In the 33 seasons between Escobar and Smalley there was one of those seasons. That performance has to at least deserve a little consideration for an extension. 

 

The problem is that there is literally nothing in his past that says that he can maintain this level of play.  He should be solid but before I propose handing out extensions I want to be sure that this is his true talent level.  He could very easily hit .255/.295/.355/.650 with below avg defense next season.  That isn't dreadfully awful at SS but that isn't a guy that I think should be locked up.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Help me understand that.

EE is not supposed to be this good, therefore, logic.

 

I don't support an extension, but I also don't support EE being a fluke.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the obvious decision is to make Escobar actually play an entire season at short before even considering an extension.

[darin617]

 

The Twins should always wait until the year before they have to actually touch these contracts to do something.

This strategy worked out good for the wins with Joe Mauer.

[jorgenswest]

 

I think the obvious decision is to make Escobar actually play an entire season at short before even considering an extension.

Maybe they get a contract that is reasonable even if he fills a utility role. It seems he would be valuable to the team in that role beyond team control at 29.

 

 

[howieramone2]

 

No point, Ryan aparently isn't a fan of buying out free agent years anyways, he'd much rather just guarantee the arb years for some bizzarre reason.

Can you provide specific examples? In TR's many years of service to our favorite team, I can not think of anything that even remotely qualifies as being bizarre.

[jorgenswest]

At the time of the trade, the context of Escobar's minor league numbers were very misunderstood among Twin followers. He was 4.8 and 3.5 years younger than league in his previous two minor league levels. That misunderstanding carries through to today. Trading two months of Liriano for a young up the middle player was a good trade. The upside of his young age at advanced levels provided value that few acknowledged.

 

He was excellent in Rochester in 2013 though 4.5 years younger than league. He has been an above league average hitter at SS in 2014 and 2015.

 

The extended contract as he enters his first year of arbitration should be reasonable. If not, they don't need to do it.

[notoriousgod71]

 

The difference is track record.

 

Escobar has 900 good MLB AB's the last 2 seasons and everything before that is rather underwhelming.  His isoP this season looks like a complete fluke.  He has however done enough to go into next season as the starter. 

 

If the Twins started handing out extensions to every player that had 2 seasons that were far above expectations then they would have a roster clogged with mediocre players that regressed but were signed to long term contracts.

 

Don't they?

[SwainZag]

 

Don't they?

 

Considering the only homegrown players on the roster with more than a 1 year contract at this point are Mauer, Perkins and Dozier......I would say no.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not really in favor of extensions for these guys.

 

On the other hand, Escobar's lack of track record might make an extension pretty cheap. If he does in a full season what he just did in two half seasons, any chance at a reasonable deal will be gone simply because he's a shortstop.

 

I'm good going year-to-year, though it absolutely should not be because the team thinks upgrades are on the way. As mentioned, the Twins history with SS's is terrible, the odds that anyone in the pipeline is better than Escobar is slim, even if Escobar ends up being merely average.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I think the obvious decision is to make Escobar actually play an entire season at short before even considering an extension.

I think you mean  allow  , right?  I believe, after what he's shown in the last 2 seasons, that he deserves that shot.  To early for an extension.

[DocBauer]

No on Escobar at this point. I actually think what he's done last season and this season is real. I believe in him, and never bought in to the whole "he's only a utility infielder" because he was way, way too young when promoted and then traded to carry a label like that. That being said, he not only has 3 years of arbitration available, but as Brock stated, let him play a (another?) full season as the starting SS before making that move.

 

Dozier is a moot point.

 

I'd be in favor of Plouffe being signed to something fair but not outlandish. Something that works for and protects both parties. But if the Twins are legitimately thinking of trading him this offseason or next season for help elsewhere then no. Let his next employer make that choice.

[SwainZag]

 

No on Escobar at this point. I actually think what he's done last season and this season is real. I believe in him, and never bought in to the whole "he's only a utility infielder" because he was way, way too young when promoted and then traded to carry a label like that. That being said, he not only has 3 years of arbitration available, but as Brock stated, let him play a (another?) full season as the starting SS before making that move.

 

Dozier is a moot point.

 

I'd be in favor of Plouffe being signed to something fair but not outlandish. Something that works for and protects both parties. But if the Twins are legitimately thinking of trading him this offseason or next season for help elsewhere then no. Let his next employer make that choice.

 

The Twins are in a pretty good position with Escobar right now.  I doubt he gets that much in arbitration this offseason.  If he continues to improve next season they could think about an extension and if he falters, you aren't tied up in a contract.

 

Plouffe will be interesting.  At this point I can't imagine they give him an extension and let him go to his last year of arbitration.  Then again I could be wrong.

[Kwak]

 

This strategy worked out good for the wins with Joe Mauer.

The Twins did sign Mauer to a four-year contract which included the year he would have been a free-agent.  When that contract expired Mauer was RICH, and had such a strong negotiating position "that he held the  Aces".

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think you mean allow , right? I believe, after what he's shown in the last 2 seasons, that he deserves that shot. To early for an extension.

Allow, make, whatever. I think most of us can agree Eduardo should have considerably more 2015 plate appearances than he does today.