Should we be worried about Twins starting pitching ?

[Thegrin]

Since the All-Star Break the Twins have lost 3 straight series.  Is this a cause for concern ?

 

Sun July 26 vs NYY @ MN - Gibson allowed 5 earned runs in the 6th inning.
Sat July 25 vs NYY @ MN - Milone allowed 3 earned runs in the 7th inning.
Fri July 24 vs NYY @ MN - Hughes allowed 0 earned runs through the 7th inning.

Thur July 23 vs LAA @ LA - Santana allowed 0 earned runs through the 8th inning.
Wed July 22 vs LAA @ LA - Pelfrey allowed 4 runs (2 earned) in 6 innings.
Tue July 21 vs LAA @ LA - Gibson allowed 4 earned runs in the 5th inning without recording an out. (6 earned runs total)

Sun July 19 vs OAK @ OAK- Milone allowed 7 runs (5 earned) in 2.2 innings.
Sun July 18 vs OAK @ OAK- Hughes allowed 1 run in 7 innings.
Sun July 17 vs OAK @ OAK- Santana allowed 0 runs in 7.1 innings.

 

Should we be worried ?

[jorgenswest]

No more cause for concern than before the break.

 

The Twins find themselves without a number 1 or 2 starter necessary for any playoffs. The Twins have invested heavily in three pitchers and two in decline in Nolasco and Santana. As expected Hughes has regressed towards his career line. They invested in Pelfrey. None are top of the rotation pitchers.

 

They really have to hope on May and Berrios to eventually lead the rotation. They can't do that if they can't get starts at the major league level to develop.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No more cause for concern than before the break.

The Twins find themselves without a number 1 or 2 starter necessary for any playoffs. The Twins have invested heavily in three pitchers and two in decline in Nolasco and Santana. As expected Hughes has regressed towards his career line. They invested in Pelfrey. None are top of the rotation pitchers.

They really have to hope on May and Berrios to eventually lead the rotation. They can't do that if they can't get starts at the major league level to develop.

On top of that, it seems to me like the bullpen is killing the rotation. I haven't looked up the stats to confirm this but if a starter leaves a runner on base, it feels almost automatic the bullpen is going to allow that runner to cross home plate.

 

Gibson should have finished the game with a 5.1 IP, 4 ER line yesterday. That's bad but not impossible to overcome on a day when your best starter wasn't on his game and couldn't find the strike zone.

 

So what happened? The bullpen came in and finished the inning with seven runs on the board. That's the type of outing we've come to expect and it's unfair to pin all those issues on the rotation.

 

With that said, the rotation is acceptable but far from dominant. Also, May should be in it.

[Thegrin]

It seems like Santana and Hughes are pitching like ace's, but what should we do if Pelfrey gives us another bad game ?

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

It seems like Santana and Hughes are pitching like ace's, but what should we do if Pelfrey gives us another bad game ?

 

I have no clue how Pelfrey is still in the rotation. I do not think that many people honestly believed in his successful ERA stretch, but it was nice while it lasted. In the last month he has been Mike Pelfrey again. A change should have been made after 3 bad starts, with the knowledge that his success was smoke and mirrors. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A change should have been made after 3 bad starts, with the knowledge that his success was smoke and mirrors.

Maybe Pelf just needs to borrow Torii's fog machine and disco ball!

[Blackjack]

 

I have no clue how Pelfrey is still in the rotation. I do not think that many people honestly believed in his successful ERA stretch, but it was nice while it lasted. In the last month he has been Mike Pelfrey again. A change should have been made after 3 bad starts, with the knowledge that his success was smoke and mirrors. 

I think the Twins were hoping that he'd have a couple good starts and then they could trade him at the deadline to some sucker in need of a starter.  Not going to happen now.   Will be interesting to see what happens to him after July 31. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the Twins were hoping that he'd have a couple good starts and then they could trade him at the deadline to some sucker in need of a starter.  Not going to happen now.   Will be interesting to see what happens to him after July 31. 

There was no way we were going to be able to sucker anyone on Pelfrey, I doubt the front office was thinking that.  Maybe if the peripherals supported his renaissance, like Esteban Loaiza circa 2003, Pelfrey's run was brief and unsustainable.

 

I am pretty sure it was just a matter of not seeing much immediate difference between him and May, and giving the veteran preference (at least until someone else is willing to take his salary and perhaps also give him a chance to start, perhaps in August?).

 

"May as setup man" was another factor, but given the evidence thus far, I think it was the smaller factor.

 

[twinsnorth49]

Wait.......you mean there was a time we weren't worried about the starting pitching?!!

 

When was this?

[jimbo92107]

First fix is to swap Mike Pelfrey for Trevor May. Pelfrey's stuff isn't fooling people anymore, where May's stuff was noticeably improving when he was sent to the pen. This simple move would help May keep developing while easing off on Pelfrey's work load. Down the stretch this will help both men.

 

Second fix is just as obvious. Tonkin to replace Fien, and Berrios to replace Boyer. The middle inning relief situation is just caving in too much.

 

As for the starters, we should keep in mind that Pelfrey and Milone are 4th and 5th level starters. Guys like that can dominate weak offenses, but they can get hammered by good ones. Gibson is more of a 3rd level starter, so he's right in the middle. Hughes and Santana are 2nd level starters, and the Twins have no ace. This puts the team right in the middle of starting rotations around the league, which is a big step up from the last four years, but nowhere near good enough to really contend.

 

Once again, in a transitional season like this, there is no reason to stand pat on making adjustments. The Twins might as well use this season to try out guys in their own system, so they can find out who the real players are.

[jimmer]

 

Wait.......you mean there was a time we weren't worried about the starting pitching?!!

 

When was this?

thank you.  this team hasn't come close to fixing the rotation regardless of our hot start.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Wait.......you mean there was a time we weren't worried about the starting pitching?!!

 

When was this?

OUCH!!  Reality hurts...

[Mike Sixel]

I'd be less worried if May was in there, and Peflrey was in the bull pen.

 

I'd be more excited if Milone would just never face a time for a third time through the order. Just pitch him 5-6 innings, and enjoy life.

[Danchat]

 

I'd be less worried if May was in there, and Peflrey was in the bull pen.

 

I'd be more excited if Milone would just never face a time for a third time through the order. Just pitch him 5-6 innings, and enjoy life.

You mean pitch 5-6 innings and then watch our horrid bullpen fall into complete disarray?

 

Without a solid 7th/8th inning pitcher, we need our starters to be going longer. And in those late innings the starters have been giving up runs.

 

The solution? Fix the bullpen, already!

[DiscGolfer]

Considering what this starting staff looked like the last 4 years I'm not overly concerned.  It's not perfect by any stretch of the imagination but it's getting better.  With plenty of prospects in the system working their way up the staff should continue to improve.

 

On the Pelfrey/May situation I'm ok with May in the bullpen for now.  The pen needs more help than the rotation, I think May helps in the pen more then Pelfrey.  Pelfrey would be just another long reliever and we have plenty of those.  Early in the season I was hoping Pelfrey would pitch well enough to be traded for something helpful, don't think that's going to happen now.  Maybe after the non-waiver deadline they can trade him for a bag of baseballs or another smoke machine. Or pay for soda in the vending machine for a year.  I don't think there would be any problem of him making it through waivers.  After that get May back in the rotation.

[jimmer]

 

On top of that, it seems to me like the bullpen is killing the rotation. I haven't looked up the stats to confirm this but if a starter leaves a runner on base, it feels almost automatic the bullpen is going to allow that runner to cross home plate.

 

 

Only one bullpen allows a higher % of inherited runners to score.  Only one team has allowed more actual inherited runners to score. (no, it's not the same team in front of the Twins in both categories).

[Seth Stohs]

Worried about the rotation? Not really?

 

Worried about Hughes and Santana? Not at all.

Worried about Gibson and Milone? Nope.

Worried about Pelfrey? Sure. 

[h2oface]

In answer to the headline question......... definitely. Most definitely. But then, what else is new?

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I have no clue how Pelfrey is still in the rotation. I do not think that many people honestly believed in his successful ERA stretch, but it was nice while it lasted. In the last month he has been Mike Pelfrey again. A change should have been made after 3 bad starts, with the knowledge that his success was smoke and mirrors. 

 

We have all posted about how bad he ACTUALLY is, regardless of some decent games of not giving up runs through luck. Crappy thing is that the Twins have lost so much lately, BUT of course he pitched one of the only good games in there. So, inevitably he will get a months worth of terrible games and still stick in the rotation. Two more games like tonight, and the FO or Moliter still won't be talking about a change. One good, or decent start, buys guys like him like 3-5 meh starts.

[jimmer]

 

We have all posted about how bad he ACTUALLY is, regardless of some decent games of not giving up runs through luck. Crappy thing is that the Twins have lost so much lately, BUT of course he pitched one of the only good games in there. So, inevitably he will get a months worth of terrible games and still stick in the rotation. Two more games like tonight, and the FO or Moliter still won't be talking about a change. One good, or decent start, buys guys like him like 3-5 meh starts.

Plenty of people have suggested he: 

 

A: hasn't been bad at all.

B: has been somewhat good.  

C: At minimum, has been a pleasant surprise.

 

Before you say, it, yeah, I know :-)

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Plenty of people have suggested he: 

 

A: hasn't been bad at all.

B: has been somewhat good.  

C: At minimum, has been a pleasant surprise.

 

Before you say, it, yeah, I know :-)

 

I know, and depending on you look at it or frame it, they all could be right I guess. It is perspective. Is it that he's been better than what we've had the past several years? Or, is he better than we expected him to be? Or, better than some of the others in our rotation? Or, better than our other options in the minors and bullpen? 

 

I think he has been a pleasant surprise too, but only from what I expected out of him, and only from time to time. I have never once believed in his ERA as being backed by skill. He was hard to watch tonight, but he's often hard to watch even when the balls are falling in gloves or in the infield. Even with his decent surprise outings, he still looks lackluster as a whole when compared to the what one would expect out of decent to good starter. 

 

Yes, the guy has what it takes to luck into some soft contact outings where the ball lands in favorable spots for us, but we are always playing with fire and luck with this. Blackburn had good starts like Pelf's last one too, but was more often like tonight. 

 

So, one thinking Pelfrey has been pleasant, are simply people with very low expectations, and or just go along with the teams decisions. I am just getting tired of the glaringly obvious moves and decisions taking forever for to be made by the team, even with idiots like myself pointing them out for weeks or months, only for the fans to be right, but the move coming to late. 

 

I just don't understand why sunken costs should ever come into play with a decent to good team, or any team. 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

We got 2 and a half months of good Pelfrey, another half month of okay Pelfrey, now he needs to go.

[jorgenswest]

The worry about the Twins starting pitching hasn't changed. They have several years and dollars invested in pitchers that project to be bottom of the rotation or worse pitchers as they decline. Instead of rebuilding they have tried to patch and they could be paying for the 2014-15 patch through 2018.

 

The younger pitchers need time to struggle and adjust to the major leagues. It might take 50 starts. The young starting pitchers are not very far along that path.

[shs_59]

Hopefully Duffey Gets another shot fairly soon.

[Jham]

 

The worry about the Twins starting pitching hasn't changed. They have several years and dollars invested in pitchers that project to be bottom of the rotation or worse pitchers as they decline. Instead of rebuilding they have tried to patch and they could be paying for the 2014-15 patch through 2018.

The younger pitchers need time to struggle and adjust to the major leagues. It might take 50 starts. The young starting pitchers are not very far along that path.

 

Wait, wait, wait.  Who exactly should the Twins called up to get experience over the last 2 years?  What would your rotation have been last year and this year?  May has been up.  Gibson.  Berrios has been on the fast track, likely to go through 3 levels by the end of the year.  Sorry if I don't see Duffey and Rogers, and... and....  as guys I can count on this year, while we're still in a playoff hunt let alone 2 or 3 years out or however long it would take fringe major league starters to accumulate the 50 starts you want them to accumulate to reach their full potential as bottom of the rotation guys.  I'm fine with them filling in in a few years if Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May, Nolasco, Berrios or the significant upgrade we should be trying to acquire fall that far.  I don't think it will happen in the next couple years such that we should waste time allowing projects to struggle with the big club vs. honing their craft in AAA.

 

Hopefully Duffey Gets another shot fairly soon.

 

Yeah, who doesn't want to see more Duffey...  I hope he gets a shot to compete for bull pen spot next spring where he'd have a legit chance of helping the team.  If he's truly an MLB ready prospect arm, we should deal him as he'd be unlikely to contribute for several years for us.

[jorgenswest]

I don't commit four years to two pitchers who had a below league average adjusted ERA through prime ages 26-31. If you are below average in your prime, you pitch poorly from 32-35 unless you are Dennis Martinez. Everyone else declined significantly.

 

I don't extend Hughes into his decline following one good season. It was foolish to do so. They had two more years in his prime at a very good number.

 

These kind of decline phase moves guarantee a cycle of meciocrity.

[Rosterman]

Again, quite frankly, the Twins need to worry about putting butts in the seats, or so they think they need that worry.

 

Most fans have no idea what is going on except that Torii Hunter returned, the Twins are winning, the pitching looks overall better than ever, the Twins did spend money, and some bearded guy is playing first base and is not Joe Mauer. But who cares, the Twins are (were) winning and the seats are full and the lines at concessions are long and people are buying all those Aaron Hicks shirts that don't need to go in a remainder bin.

 

But the team IS fielding quite a few guys who no one currently wants on their own team, no matter the price. And these guys won't be contributing next year...and truth be told...are barely contruibuting this year except they are on payroll with guaranteed contracts and "what the hey" we need to get our money's worth as long as we can. We jettisoned Stauffer so he could play indy ball for a dime and dwell in the Mets minors while the Twins pick up us modest bill. We are paying Nolasco for a sceond year of no production. We forget that Pelfrey has ate well for two seasons and is doing nothing to prove to any other team that he is deserving of a contract similar to what the Twins gave him. 

 

We hjave at least one guy in the bullpen that didn't deserve arbitration and another who should have been moved when he was actually very good. 

 

There are a dozen guys on the 40-man roster that were put there for some reason, I would imagine, but the Twins don't see any reason to play them in the majors, so go figure. One guy they removed and he was snatched by a team...over two others that could've easily passed thru waivers (Thompson, Wheeler...maybe even Darnell). Passed thru waivers. Says a lot for guiys on your 40-man protected list. Why protect them if no one wants them, yet you choose the one guy (at times) that another team will take off your hands. Not that I am crying about the loss of Thielbar.

 

Of course, if you basic philosophy is to remain competitive and put people in the seats, the Twins are doing a-ok. They are better than anyone imagined, they did bring in Hunter which did perk up the fan base. The team seems to pitch better than last year and even though the offense was dismal of late, it has been all-around solid with everyone contributing, but no one taking the lead as a star.

 

But the prospects are hungry. They need to get their feet wet. Achter was nervous and gave up a home run. But he also struck out the side. Which is what we need in the bullpen. Oliveros, a favorite of mine, would probably pitch in a similar fashion and if he listens to the coaches, well, we could have a could of strikeout guys in the bullpen, something we don'tsee until Perkins comes out.

 

Hopefully someone bites on our waiver wire guys. If they do, well as that great comedian once said: Take My Players, please!"