Article: Twins Sign Dominican SS Wander Javier

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

that hasn't been the Twins' strategy though.......it has been 1 - 2 guys for more than $250K, and then a bunch of cheaper guys. You are calling for 5 guys in the top 20......they've only signed 1 most years, right?

 

Miguel Cabrera signed how many years ago? That's not even a real number now.

 

I'd be a bit careful working off of the top 20.  These kids aren't scouted quite like they are in the US.  Arcia was a 30k signing and then you have plenty of 1M plus guys who never make it.  I personally don't care too much about the top 20 and just care about the fact that they go get the guys that they feel are most likely to succeed.  That has equated to 1-3 guys the last few years who are top 20-30ish range with typically 1 guy over 1M and 2 more in the 500-900k range and a bunch of lower guys.  The important point is that they spend their money (which they have). 

 

That said, if they think Javier is the next Sano and aren't too impressed with everyone else, then by all means, go for Javier.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd be a bit careful working off of the top 20.  These kids aren't scouted quite like they are in the US.  Arcia was a 30k signing and then you have plenty of 1M plus guys who never make it.  I personally don't care too much about the top 20 and just care about the fact that they go get the guys that they feel are most likely to succeed.  That has equated to 1-3 guys the last few years who are top 20-30ish range with typically 1 guy over 1M and 2 more in the 500-900k range and a bunch of lower guys.  The important point is that they spend their money (which they have). 

 

That said, if they think Javier is the next Sano and aren't too impressed with everyone else, then by all means, go for Javier.

 

Given that some guys get millions, and others 100K.....it is clear that teams feel there are talents they are much more confident in. Given that those guys are usually the ones in and around the top 20 lists, I feel pretty good working off the lists. YMMV, of course.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm guessing the plan is to unload some of the near ready back of the rotation types in Rochester (Pat Dean comes to mind) for cap dollars.  Those guys are pretty valuable to a lot of teams and really won't have a shot here with the 7 MLB starters we currently have and the guys like Rogers, Berrios, and Duffey making a case to be included.

Pat Dean is valuable?  He's a 26 year old LHP with zero MLB experience and a career 5.4 K/9 in the minors.  I would think every team in the league has multiple Pat Dean in their organization.  And what benefit would they gain by trading for one?

 

Have there been any trades of that level of player for international bonus money?

 

Here's one I found, but for a 22 year old pitcher:

http://www.camdenchat.com/2015/5/18/8622599/orioles-news-chris-lee-trade-international-bonus-slots

 

Here's another one for 22 and 23 year olds from 2 years ago:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/angels-acquire-minor-leaguers-from-mets-for-international-money.html

Edited July 2, 2015 by spycake

[gunnarthor]

I think it really depends on the class.  If you really love a guy and want to spend most of your money on him, fine.  And some years it might make more sense to go the quantity route.

 

In any event, over the last several years a lot of prospect guys have said nice things about the Twins in Latin America so it seems like they are doing one or two things right.

[drjim]

It seems the Twins have spread their money around in a variety of different ways since the caps were installed. I generally like the plan of going for quantity over quality, but if they really like Javier, why not?

[h2oface]

Twins limit for the year = 3,948,500

 

INTERNATIONAL BONUS POOL PENALTIES
Overage
0-4.99%.......100% tax on overage
5-9.99%.......100% tax on overage   no bonus over $500,000 in next period
10-14.99%...100% tax on overage   no bonus over $300,000 in next period
15%+ .......100% tax on overage   no bonus over $300,000 in next two periods

 

My bet is the signing bonus reported is the limit and it is rounded up to 4 million.

Edited July 2, 2015 by h2oface

[jimbo92107]

Quick release from the glove, good stride into pitches. Hard line drives. From his small video clip on MLB.

 

Yep, he could be good. Lots of stuff to work on...looks like he might get considerably bigger. Is that really all it takes to get $4 million bucks from the Minnesota Twins? I want a lot more video.

[nicksaviking]

I'd like the Twins to blow their wad and take the penalty seeing as this whole flawed process will be redone in a couple years.

 

But only nine of the top 30 players remain unsigned and I haven't heard heard of the Twins connected to any of them. This is a process where if you're going to go for it you have to decide six months or maybe a year in advance, it's too late now. I don't think teams can swoop in and romance these kids if they don't already have a relationship.

Edited July 2, 2015 by nicksaviking

[gunnarthor]

 

Quick release from the glove, good stride into pitches. Hard line drives. From his small video clip on MLB.

 

Yep, he could be good. Lots of stuff to work on...looks like he might get considerably bigger. Is that really all it takes to get $4 million bucks from the Minnesota Twins? I want a lot more video.

Pretty confident that the Twins sent scouts to see him in person.

[drjim]

 

I'd like the Twins to blow their wad and take the penalty seeing as this whole flawed process will be redone in a couple years.

But only nine of the top 30 players remain unsigned and I haven't heard heard of the Twins connected to any of them. This is a process where if you're going to go for it you have to decide six months or maybe a year in advance, it's too late now. I don't think teams can swoop in and romance these kids if they don't already have a relationship.

 

My (probably naive) hope is that the Twins went a little big on Javier in order to establish relationships that will pay dividends next year.

 

From what I have read Atlanta and Philly are positioning themselves to go big next year, no reason the Twins can't join them. Have heard rumblings, but I'll believe it when it happens.

[bird]

 

Given that some guys get millions, and others 100K.....it is clear that teams feel there are talents they are much more confident in. Given that those guys are usually the ones in and around the top 20 lists, I feel pretty good working off the lists. YMMV, of course.

 

I agree, but it would be an interesting exercise to look at a BA list from five years ago and see how many of those prospects are Top 100 type prospects compared against the other international signees who are.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think the Twins are getting additional slot money. It looks like there has already been a half dozen slot deals, meaning teams had them in place prior to the International signing period. There aren't that many teams that can or will trade their slots, most will be the team's who can't spend big this year because they did last year.

Edited July 3, 2015 by nicksaviking

[2wins87]

 

I don't think the Twins are getting additional slot money. It looks like there has already been a half dozen slot deals, meaning teams had them in place prior to the International signing period. There aren't that many teams that can or will trade their slots, most will be the team's who can't spend big this year because they did last year.

 

There is money out there if they want it.  The Diamondbacks have the largest pool and are unable to sign guys for more than 300,000 (and they have no reported signings or trades thus far).  The Red Sox have signed 4 guys for thier 300k limit but still have over 2 million in their pool.  The Marlins, notorious for leaving money on the table have traded away $500k, but I wouldn't put it past them to trade away more.  The Yankees haven't been reported to be involved in any signings or trades yet.

 

In addition the Dodgers have realized that money is just a social construct that only has value because we collectively agree that it does and have traded away all of their slots after blowing through their limit.  Maybe the Cubs follow suit.

[AlwaysinModeration]

When it comes to 16 year olds it's about quantity. 3 is better than one.

As a general principle, I am not sure this is true. But when it comes to international baseball prospects, I would agree.

[brvama]

 

Uh, McDaniel is a former professional scout, and highly respected writer. I'm pretty sure he understands what he's typing.

 

Certainly he has the background. What I don't know is how much exposure he's had with actual scouting of these players. It seems to me that it'd be next to impossible to cover the US plus the international market. And unless things have changed w/in the last year, rating the international prospects is a difficult process, mostly b/c of the lack of info available.

 

I guess I put less importance on internatiional ratings as real valuable information, unlike US prospect ratings, at this time. That will change, but for now, I have to trust a teams individual scouting. And the Twins have done a fair to good job on this in the last few years.

Edited July 5, 2015 by brvama

[drjim]

 

 
 
Certainly he has the background. What I don't know is how much exposure he's had with actual scouting of these players. It seems to me that it'd be next to impossible to cover the US plus the international market. And unless things have changed w/in the last year, rating the international prospects is a difficult process, mostly b/c of the lack of info available.

I guess I put less importance on internatiional ratings as real valuable information, unlike US prospect ratings, at this time. That will change, but for now, I have to trust a teams individual scouting. And the Twins have done a fair to good job on this in the last few years.

 

Probably better to think of him as a compiler and not a scout when it comes to international players. No chance he gets enough looks at an individual player for a meaningful scouting report, but does have contacts throughout the game that feed him information, and enough of them that he shouldn't be overly influenced by self-serving contacts.

 

The issue with international rankings is not that they are bad, but that they are 16. Huge changes between then and the majors and lots of opportunities for later bloomers. Another good reason to go for quantity.

[brvama]

 

Probably better to think of him as a compiler and not a scout when it comes to international players. No chance he gets enough looks at an individual player for a meaningful scouting report, but does have contacts throughout the game that feed him information, and enough of them that he shouldn't be overly influenced by self-serving contacts.

 

The issue with international rankings is not that they are bad, but that they are 16. Huge changes between then and the majors and lots of opportunities for later bloomers. Another good reason to go for quantity.

Good points Doc.

 

I generally agree with quantity, except when there is that exceptional talent. In the case of Javier, the Twins apparently think as a SS he has a lot of potential for them. Back to the Future would be nice. Guess we'll have to wait for 5-6 years. That said, I'm ok with this signing.

[drjim]

 

 

Good points Doc.

I generally agree with quantity, except when there is that exceptional talent. In the case of Javier, the Twins apparently think as a SS he has a lot of potential for them. Back to the Future would be nice. Guess we'll have to wait for 5-6 years. That said, I'm ok with this signing.

 

I am happy with him too. If they like him go for it, then back fill the quantity with some of the lower cost guys.

 

I generally like the mixes of strategy they have used the best several years. Sometimes going big, sometimes lots of quantity, sometimes more of a mix.

[Minniman]

 

Well, it's not my money, so I'd say it's a great way to spend 4 million dollars.

 

If you watch games, buy tickets, eat at the ballpark, purchase merchandise, and pay taxes, sure it is your money. Not all of it, of course, but it isn't like this cash is coming out of a baseball trust fund from a long deceased donor.

[drivlikejehu]

In the draft, the more expensive picks are much more valuable than the less expensive picks. It's hard to compare that structure to the international free agents, but I think there's something to be said for maximizing the number of elite prospects in the system. Ultimately there will be an international draft anyway.

[kab21]

 

that hasn't been the Twins' strategy though.......it has been 1 - 2 guys for more than $250K, and then a bunch of cheaper guys. You are calling for 5 guys in the top 20......they've only signed 1 most years, right?

 

Miguel Cabrera signed how many years ago? That's not even a real number now.

this is a misreprensentation.  They have been signing one guy for 1-1.5M each year and at least a couple of guys in the 500+ range.  They haven't been spending their 4+M yearly int'l bonus pool mostly on cheaper guys.  They have been spending it on one reasonably priced top 30 guy (Minier, Diaz for example) and then a pile of 500-800K guys.

[DocBauer]

In general principal, I object to giving anyone 16yo anything close to $4M when they haven't really accomplished anything yet, and have barely reached legal driving age. For that matter, I don't like giving an 18yo that kind of money either. But such is the world of sports and entertainment we live in.

 

Generally speaking, year to year, I'd love for the Twin to spread their money around and sign several high quality prospects, say 4-5 or so. Quantity and quality both! However, the problem is, EVERYONE would like to spread their money around to various prospects and sign both quantity and quality.

 

I still don't quite grasp all of the ramifications of restrictions for teams next year. But it appears as though half the league will be restricted, leaving more financial maneuverability for us to play the quantity and quality game for real.

 

In regard to Javier, it is sooo hard to scout and project American high school kids, I don't know how on earth you accurately scout and project out an equivalent sophomore in a Latin country. But sometimes I can really appreciate the "go for it" mentality. If the Twins really believe in this kids potential, and really think they got in early on perhaps the top prospect available, (potentially), I'm kind of excited to the gamble and the aggressiveness shown. I dare say its a combination of belief, as well as recognition they may have less opposition next year in spreading a wider net.

[Mike Sixel]

In looking at BA.....

 

2010....one guy for more than 250K, as far as I can tell

2011....one guy for more than $400K, as far as I can tell

2012....one guy for big bucks, one guy for $500K, the rest under 250K

2013....one big guy, one guy for 550K

 

If they signed a "pile" of 500-800K guys every year, plus a big signing, they'd go over.....

[righty8383]

So will the Twins let this kid get his feet wet in the DSL or will they just wait till next year?

[kab21]

 

In looking at BA.....

 

2010....one guy for more than 250K, as far as I can tell

2011....one guy for more than $400K, as far as I can tell

2012....one guy for big bucks, one guy for $500K, the rest under 250K

2013....one big guy, one guy for 550K

 

If they signed a "pile" of 500-800K guys every year, plus a big signing, they'd go over.....

 

Sorry, I exaggerated since I remembered more 500K price tags for 200-300K guys like Barrie but they have been signing alot of 200-300K guys and it seems like they have done a pretty good job picking them.  One thing that is very strange (and frustrating) about the Twins is that they took an unusual path signing Sano, Kepler and Polanco in one offseason and then they cut back until 2012 when teams had bonus pools.  At that point they started spending more (pretty much their entire bonus pool).

 

I know the discussion was about 1 - 4M prospect vs 5 - 800K prospects but is there really a difference between a 200-300K prospects and 500-800K prospects?  Can they really be dismissed as cheaper guys?

 

2013 - Diaz 1.4M, Tapia 550K, Martinez 340K, Molina 300K, Barrie 250K, Balbuena 175K, Gomez 150K, Herrera 135K, Verkerk ?

2012 - Minier 1.4M, Thorpe 500K, Hu 220K, Silva 175K, Tovar 100K, Quezada 150K

2011 - Gonzalez 650K , Silva 370K, Perez 300K, Romero 260K, Jorge 330K

 

That is 5 interesting prospects that have recently ranked in the top 25 (on someone's list) out of two years of signings.  I am certainly not going to complain about these cheaper guys.

[DaveW]

These spending limits are ridiculous, they need to just hurry up and do an international draft.

[Secondary User]

 

These spending limits are ridiculous, they need to just hurry up and do an international draft.

 

Tell that to the players that won't get paid as much and will have no control over where they sign

[freshinthehouse]

 

Tell that to the players that won't get paid as much and will have no control over where they sign

 

Okay.

[blairpaul715]

 

Tell that to the players that won't get paid as much and will have no control over where they sign

Same as the amatuer draft that we have now, they dont have control either.

[drjim]

In my mind it is not the signing bonuses that are the problem (they should be higher both domestically and internationally), it is the absolute shadiness (to put it kindly) of the whole market. I think a draft could remedy some of that.