The more I read about the Twins finishing last ...

[Monkeypaws]

the more I think these people know nothing about the Twins. The main culprits:

 

•terrible defense - in the infield, no way. Our infield is solidly above average around the horn. Outfield? Schafer is good, Torii and Oswaldo, meh, but overall, the whole nine is average at least.

 

•starting pitching - well, we have progressed from Kevin Correia as opening day starter. Hell, Hughes, Santana, Gibson, that sounds like a pretty good top 3 to me. If Nolasco and Milone attain career average, you need to go back to the 60s-70s to find a Twins rotation with such depth, not to mention studs and such in waiting.

 

•power - potential, to be sure, but there are a number of guys capable of 20+ pops on this team. Guys who have hit 20+ : Dozier, Pouffe, Arcia, Mauer, Hunter. Vargas is easily capable. There could be some serious lumber going on here.

 

I also think a Molitor will help overall in attention to minor things: baserunning for sure, but also defense. Kelly was a stickler for detail, Gardy not so much. 

 

This team has depth options at key positions that also go beyong AAA filler, except at outfield and perhaps catcher: bullpen and infield look good. But if Buxton gets off to a good start, and Rosario thumps in the minors, it could turn around quickly.

 

I expect, even as a pessimist, that the Twins will not finish last, and will be at least near even in win loss this season.

[jimmer]

The team overall defense is every bit as bad as advertised.  2nd to last in DRS., easily the worst FIP-ERA rate,  25th in UZR. Then they add a almost 40 year old RF, move their RF to LF, and perhaps downgrade their shortstop defense.  Not even close to average, not as constructed right now.

[Monkeypaws]

 

The team overall defense is every bit as bad as advertised.  2nd to last in DRS., easily the worst FIP-ERA rate,  25th in UZR. Then they add a almost 40 year old RF, move their RF to LF, and perhaps downgrade their shortstop defense.  Not even close to average, not as constructed right now.

I don't even understand your post - advanced metrics work up to a point, but traditional stats still have meaning too. The Twins FME is well over the average of the AL Centrals GTR.

[jimmer]

 

I don't even understand your post - advanced metrics work up to a point, but traditional stats still have meaning too. The Twins FME is well over the average of the AL Centrals GTR.

I can't help that you don't understand metrics that have been around for quite some time.  Which traditional stats do you want to use for defense?

 

Oh, and the eyes themselves were easily able to see that the defense was horrendous last year too.  Slow OF, bad routes, lackadaisical play, players playing out of their actual positions (like IF in the OF) and nothing done this offseason improved that, except the move of Santana to shortstop, which may have downgraded shortstop defense.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't know about not understanding them per say, but there's a ton of debate on whether or not they are actually accurate in what they claim to represent, and there are plenty of well reasoned individuals who remain skeptical for that reason alone...  

 

And when the creators come right out and say you need multiple years worth of data for them to be considered accurate, well let's just say I'm even more skeptical. 

 

I think we all agree that the Twins OF was pretty bad last year.  Eye test, metrics, whatever, it was bad.  The question is how many runs did it cost us, and how many will be saved by upgrading Hammer with Torii and 2014 Arcia with a hopefully improved 2015 Arcia. 

[Paul Pleiss]

Finishing last but still trying hard is the hipster way of winning. Joe Mauer just wants to be a hipster despite his all american Joe Coolness.

 

Hipsters get to wear cool hats, shirts with animals wearing glasses and dirty jeans. And they get to drink cheap beer. Which, I mean, I sort of like cheap beer (Pabst, Rainier, Coors Original), but I mean, we're becoming a hipster baseball club.

[Thrylos]

 

I expect, even as a pessimist, that the Twins will not finish last, and will be at least near even in win loss this season.

 

Alright.  I give you that (and somewhat agree, as a matter of fact.)

 

But but but

 

What if they do?  Would you ask for Ryan's head on a platter?  Molitor's?  St. Peter's (he has the key, allegedly?)

 

Cannot say "expect something" without asking for accountability if it does not happen...

[jimmer]

'I don't know about not understanding them per say,'

 

He said he didn't understand my post not that he disagrees with the way the metrics are created or their accuracy or anything like that.  And they say it takes multiple years to determine a players actual talent, but that doesn't mean what was put out there as what the players did was wildly wrong or anything.  It still tells us what happened last year, more or less.  All the teams are evaluated the same, so even if one doesn't trust the methods, the rankings should still matter.

 

And I'm not sure how much of an upgrade Hunter will be over Arcia or Arcia will be over Hammer.  Hunter has been really bad the last couple years.  And we have to wonder about how much shortstop will be downgraded.

[jimmer]

 

Alright.  I give you that (and somewhat agree, as a matter of fact.)

 

But but but

 

What if they do?  Would you ask for Ryan's head on a platter?  Molitor's?  St. Peter's (he has the key, allegedly?)

 

Cannot say "expect something" without asking for accountability if it does not happen...

I wonder how he can call himself a pessimist after what he wrote in the rest of his post. Post was very optimistic.  Overly so, some might say.  Certainly not pessimistic.

 

At least an average defense.

A pretty good top 3 with depth.

Quality depth as opposed to AAA filler.

At least near an even win/loss record.

[Monkeypaws]

Exactly

 

I wonder how he can call himself a pessimist after what he wrote in the rest of his post. Post was very optimistic.  Overly so, some might say.  Certainly not pessimistic.

 

At least an average defense.

A pretty good top 3 with depth.

Quality depth than AAA filler.

At least near an even win/loss record.

Exactly! I am optimistic in life, but not with the Twins.

 

I like this team, and this coaching staff.

 

I am looking at crap like Big League Stew and other "experts" that are writing the Twins off out of habit.

 

Hey, our starting rotation looks as good and deep as I can remember. That is what I am talking about.

 

If Hughes comes close to his numbers of last year, with a changeup, add in Santana, an improved Gibson, that alone kicks buns over the these 90 loss seasons. 

 

If Nolasco and Milone come close to career average, hey what? If they don't, Mays and Meyer await, or even Pelfrey or Berrios are there.

 

There is a lot of prospect depth as well that goes beyond the usual AAA filler. OF is weak, but even there there is a future.

 

Okay, hope springs eternal, but this post was meant as a counterpoint to conventional wisdom. There is much ignorance about our cellar-dwellers.

[ashbury]

 

Finishing last but still trying hard is the hipster way of winning.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Z8TaKMA66sY/Td8S1QIhhII/AAAAAAAAAPc/FK5TXySMVjo/s1600/k6.png

[Mike Sixel]

Who will the Twins finish ahead of in the division?

[Dantes929]

 

Who will the Twins finish ahead of in the division?

EVERYONE!!!

[twinsfaninsaudi]

I keep seeing people say that adding Torii is a negative. Can someone please draw out why replacing Kubel/Willingham with Hunter is a net less? When I look at the defensive and offensive numbers I see a net gain. Those two are who he's replacing if you want to talk about adding/subtracting from the 2014 team

[Dantes929]

I don't like the blanket comments that our defense is lousy.    I don't trust any metric that says our infield defense was anything but good.     Our outfield defense is bad and concerns me more than the starting pitching, catcher framing and relief pitching.   .  

BTW, I was mostly kidding about the comment above.    Mostly because I would never give up on a team before the season began and while I can imagine a 90 loss season I can imagine things going well also.    

[Shane Wahl]

All five teams could win 75+ games, but I don't know who the Twins would finish ahead of except for Cleveland if something goes wrong for that team. 

 

 

[bird]

 I can "accept" that:

 

1. The outfield defense was bad, really really bad, last year.

2. The outfield defense, when Arcia and Hunter both play, will be bad this year.

3. All the other teams in the AL Central are better on paper today than the Twins are on paper today.

4. The starting rotation will be better this year, with a ceiling probably of being MLB average.

5. The team will win more games this year than last, and be more fun to watch in the process.

6. The roster will be different, about 20% different at least, by year-end. And better too.

[Craig Arko]

The more I read about the Twins finishing last ...

 

The more I appreciate that other peoples' opinions are irrelevant to my enjoyment of the game.

[Oxtung]

You know it's spring training when we get posts saying people expect the Twins to [insert positive comment here].

[Platoon]

There are an awful lot of "ifs", instead of "shoulds" involved for the Twins to not finish last. But if you put both words in the same sentence it could be this: IF the Twins players who had career years have another career year, the team SHOULD finish above last place. While that sentence can be picked apart, or perish the thought even critiscised, the following cannot. It saddens me to see that the criteria for a successful Twins season has been reduced to finishing anywhere out of last place!

[teekz]

I honestly expect the Tigers to take a Twins 2011 nose dive. I think we finish ahead of them and possibly the Royals. I believe the Indians are the team to beat in our division this year.

[Thegrin]

If the Twins have a 10+ game improvement in 2015, then the 5 AL Central teams are all going to be "pretty good". Then they will probably beat up on each other and the winner of the Division will only win about 90 games.  That means the Twins can be playing meaningful games in September. That is all we can ask for.  We can look forward to a pennant race and the introduction of Buxton, Sano and Rosario into the lineup and a pennant race.  Won't that be fun ? 

[jimmer]

 

 I believe the Indians are the team to beat in our division this year.

I agree.

[iTwins]

I think the experts consistently picking the Twins to finish last is less an indictment on their overall quality and more an endorsement on the division as a whole.

 

Simply put, yes - the Twins are better - but nearly every other team in the division improved as well. I think it's less "we're being overlooked" and more "everyone improved".

 

That being said - it seems that whenever the baseball world has reached a consensus, the opposite tends to happen. So - go ahead, keep picking the Twins to finish last. It'll make it more fun when we're competing for the division at the end of the year.

[big dog]

The Tigers fall apart, the Royals quit overachieving, the White Sox beat themselves, the Twins surprise everyone and a meteor (or 2 Tommy Johns) hits the Cleveland pitching staff.  Hey, we got a chance!  I'm good with that.

[mikelink45]

Sorry - I can only think this was written on April Fools day.

[Dantes929]

 

There are an awful lot of "ifs", instead of "shoulds" involved for the Twins to not finish last. But if you put both words in the same sentence it could be this: IF the Twins players who had career years have another career year, the team SHOULD finish above last place. While that sentence can be picked apart, or perish the thought even critiscised, the following cannot. It saddens me to see that the criteria for a successful Twins season has been reduced to finishing anywhere out of last place

Twins used to be considered overachievers in winning divisions and now the worst is expected.    I don't think it takes career years to compete but certainly we need more guys to have good years.   Two players had career years if you want to call it that in Hughes and Santana.     Hughes ended up with a .3.65 ERA which I do not consider unbeatable for him.     Plouffe, Arcia, Mauer, Gibson, Nolasco, Vargas and Milone "should" improve.    Teams can improve tremendously from players having good or even average years rather than bad years.   Think what it could mean for Mauer, Nolasco and Milone, and E Santana just to have an average year.    With young guys we don't know what average, good and career year means.    I have no problem expecting Arcia, Gibson and Vargas to do well.   I consider myself a realistic optimist.    I think the Twins will be better this year.   Realist part says they should be ranked where they are but optimistic, while still realist, says it won't be a miracle in my eyes to see them make good strides this year.   I won't put a ceiling on that.

[adorduan]

 

I don't know about not understanding them per say, but there's a ton of debate on whether or not they are actually accurate in what they claim to represent, and there are plenty of well reasoned individuals who remain skeptical for that reason alone...  

 

And when the creators come right out and say you need multiple years worth of data for them to be considered accurate, well let's just say I'm even more skeptical. 

 

I think we all agree that the Twins OF was pretty bad last year.  Eye test, metrics, whatever, it was bad.  The question is how many runs did it cost us, and how many will be saved by upgrading Hammer with Torii and 2014 Arcia with a hopefully improved 2015 Arcia. 

 

What makes you think the 2015 Arcia will be any better than the 2014 version?  He sure didn't look any better defensively in spring training than he did last year....

[Dantes929]

 

I think the experts consistently picking the Twins to finish last is less an indictment on their overall quality and more an endorsement on the division as a whole.

 

Simply put, yes - the Twins are better - but nearly every other team in the division improved as well. I think it's less "we're being overlooked" and more "everyone improved".

 

That being said - it seems that whenever the baseball world has reached a consensus, the opposite tends to happen. So - go ahead, keep picking the Twins to finish last. It'll make it more fun when we're competing for the division at the end of the year.

Except I think the Twins are improved    I also think the White Sox definitely and maybe the Indians are improved while the Tigers and Royals lost some of their best players.   In other words the top two from last year regress and the bottom three progress which makes for more balance and makes it more likely for the Twins to be relevant.

[Dantes929]

 

What makes you think the 2015 Arcia will be any better than the 2014 version?  He sure didn't look any better defensively in spring training than he did last year....

Defensively I don't think he will be better.   I do believe Hunter is an upgrade defensively (and offensively) over last year's Willingham.    That makes for a better but still very bad outfield defense which will not be changed until Buxton and or Rosario make their appearance.   The good news is that the appearance of Buxton and Rosario if it ever happens can instantly transform that outfield from very bad to above average.