The more I read about the Twins finishing last ...

[James]

 

The Tigers fall apart, the Royals quit overachieving, the White Sox beat themselves, the Twins surprise everyone and a meteor (or 2 Tommy Johns) hits the Cleveland pitching staff.  Hey, we got a chance!  I'm good with that.

I don't think the Tigers are going to quite drop that quickly.  I do think this is their last season of being a good team though.  After this year, I think they're going to be in the cellar for quite a while again.  

 

I think they Royals will be very similar to last year, but probably lose a few more games, but will be in contention with Cleveland all year.  I think the White Sox are going to be incredibly mediocre, much to the chagrin of many Chicago fans.  This opinion could be a little biased, but I think they still have some holes in the lineup, and I don't think Samardzija will be as good as people think (especially when he gets knocked around in the Cell).

 

I think the Twins will turn a few heads this year and people will start to realize that they are an up and coming team.  That doesn't mean that they won't end up last in the division though.  I'm hoping for a record around .500 or better, but realistically thinking they'll win about 75.  But overall, it's going to be much more fun to watch.  I hope I'm wrong and the Twins kick the crap out of everyone and win the world series, but I just don't think that is super likely.

[Winston Smith]

The real sad thing is that after 4 90+ loss seasons we are still talking about getting out of last place.

[Tibs]

I'm just excited for baseball to begin

[jimmer]

 

I do believe Hunter is an upgrade defensively (and offensively) over last year's Willingham.    That makes for a better but still very bad outfield defense which will not be changed until Buxton and or Rosario make their appearance.   

Here's what a guy from Fangraphs said in his organizational rankings for RF about Hunter:

 

'In one sense, bringing Torii Hunter home for a curtain call in Minnesota is probably good for business. The fans will enjoy it and Hunter and Twins seem to get along pretty well. But in another sense, it will make for some very annoyed pitchers. Hunter has some life left in his bat, but Jason Heyward could probably out-defend Hunter if he had to use his cap instead of a glove.'

 

And this isn’t just the metrics talking (-28 DRS, -22 UZR since 2013), I watched nearly every inning he played while in Detroit and I was constantly explaining to my newly adopted dog that most teams have right fielders that can get to routine fly balls.' :-)

[teekz]

Here is the thing with Detroit. Their two top offensive guys sat out all spring except the last week or so with injury. Their 2nd best starter is starting the year on the DL. They lost their staff ace. Their starting SS sat out all last year with injuries. Their bullpen is still as bad as it has been the last 6+ years. That team is poised to fall hard and fast.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't even understand your post - advanced metrics work up to a point, but traditional stats still have meaning too. The Twins FME is well over the average of the AL Centrals GTR.

 

 

I can't help that you don't understand metrics that have been around for quite some time.  Which traditional stats do you want to use for defense?

 

I find using FICO scores are the most accurate.  Have you seen them?  Not pretty.

[ashbury]

 

The real sad thing is that after 4 90+ loss seasons we are still talking about getting out of last place.

Sad would be talking about staying there.

[ashbury]

 

I find using FICO scores are the most accurate.  Have you seen them?  Not pretty.

Fair to say nobody's giving Torii Hunter any credit on defense.

[diehardtwinsfan]

What makes you think the 2015 Arcia will be any better than the 2014 version?  He sure didn't look any better defensively in spring training than he did last year....

Key word was 'hopefully'

 

I'd like to believe at that age he's still improving there, but who knows.

[jimmer]

 

Fair to say nobody's giving Torii Hunter any credit.

Hunter and his agent were able to convince a team to pay him 10M this year.  He deserves a bunch of credit just for that alone.

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

'In one sense, bringing Torii Hunter home for a curtain call in Minnesota is probably good for business. The fans will enjoy it and Hunter and Twins seem to get along pretty well. But in another sense, it will make for some very annoyed pitchers. Hunter has some life left in his bat, but Jason Heyward could probably out-defend Hunter if he had to use his cap instead of a glove.'

 

 

I think I accept that about Hunter perhaps from your comments in the past.   What does the fangraphs guy say about Willingham?.   I just can't believe Hunter is slower than Willingham or that he takes worse routes.    Mostly what I have been saying is that Hunter is an upgrade over Willingham.   Perhaps this turns our really, really, really bad outfield into just a really, really bad outfield.   Which would you rather have?     Especially since Willingham had a pretty lousy offensive year also.  Teams don't get better just by replacing lousy guys with all stars.   They also get better by replacing guys with slightly better guys.  None of this is to endorse the defensive outfield.    I can live with Hunter OR Schaefer OR Arcia.   Don't really care for any two of the three together much less all three but still prefer it to Willingham, Schaefer and Arcia.

[TKGuy]

The starting pitching doesn't include Correia, DeVries and the ilk, that to me makes me optimistic.  I think offensively we should be at least as good with better years from Mauer and Arcia, even if Santana and Vargas digress somewhat

[jimmer]

 

I think I accept that about Hunter perhaps from your comments in the past.   What does the fangraphs guy say about Willingham?.   I just can't believe Hunter is slower than Willingham or that he takes worse routes.    Mostly what I have been saying is that Hunter is an upgrade over Willingham.   Perhaps this turns our really, really, really bad outfield into just a really, really bad outfield.   Which would you rather have?     Especially since Willingham had a pretty lousy offensive year also.  Teams don't get better just by replacing lousy guys with all stars.   They also get better by replacing guys with slightly better guys.  None of this is to endorse the defensive outfield.    I can live with Hunter OR Schaefer OR Arcia.   Don't really care for any two of the three together much less all three but still prefer it to Willingham, Schaefer and Arcia.

Those aren't my quotes though, those are Fangraphs.

 

But I will say that Arcia is replacing Willingham and Hunter is replacing Arcia. Arcia is playing a new position (and is really bad out in the OF) and the soon to be 40 year old is taking RF. That almost 40 year old's defense is in big decline, like one would expect from someone his age.  I don't think it's any kind of improvement honestly.  I think if we didn't have in our mind how Hunter used to be, if that bias didn't exist, there would be less debate about it. Like the guy said, he saw almost all of Hunter's play while he was with the Tigers and he was very bad.  That's what I saw too.

 

And I have no idea what the author of that piece says about Willingham.  Where is he playing? Is he even on a team? Edit: he's retired.

[Dantes929]

I guess I saw much of Willingham and thought it was brutal.   I also saw a lot of Arcia and thought it was brutal.  However, it did look to me like  a lot of Arcia's problems were with the corner. which somehow doesn't seem to be quite as hazardous in left and again, I do believe Arcia is faster than Willingham.    I don't know how to measure it but if last year's defense gave up 50 extra runs and this year's outfield defense gives up 30 extra runs it won't be all that noticeable but should still be worth a couple games.   Just throwing around numbers.    I wasn't really debating Hunters worth as an outfielder.   You have commented about how bad it was and the fangraphs guy has commented on how bad it is and I believe you.    I accept he is bad    But unless you tell me he is worse than Willingham was last year I will believe otherwise..    Do you agree that there are degrees of how bad a person is?

[ashbury]

Arcia has a built-in advantage over the Hammer in that he does not have a chronic bad back and will at least leave his feet when it's necessary to catch a humpback liner that would drop in.

[jimmer]

Yeah, he was brutal with us, but he only played 1/3 of the season with us in the OF and our OF defense still managed to be horrible without him when he got replaced. And he was hurt/had a bad back.  Hunter is just bad now because he is.  And at almost 40, you would expect him to be :-)

[Mike Sixel]

Who do you expect the Twins to beat in the division? i expect them to be last. Even if they are 5 games better, they are still likely last.

[GP830]

Quick question. I've noticed some heavy criticism aimed at the Twins for singing a nearly 40 year old Right Fielder with declining range and power.

 

I know a lot of people believe that intangibles are over-rated. My question is: What would you have preferred the Twins do to address their lack of outfield depth? Young players with high upside and ascending value do not materialize on the open market, or even by development. Were there free agents you wish they would have signed instead of Torii? Does the irritation stem from the fact that Torii is taking potentially valuable AB's away from Rosario?

 

With the understanding that the outfield is still a work in progress, and with a serious lack of vocal veteran leadership on the team (DISCLAIMER: Even if you disagree with this statement about a recent lack of veteran leadership, none of us are privy to what the front office sees as strong leadership, so this is just my opinion), what is the negative? The front office feels warm and fuzzy about Odysseus returning home to tell all of the youngsters (who may one day become incredibly expensive) about how special it is to be a Twin, and how much he missed the TC when he was gone. Right, wrong, or indifferent: There is significant value to what Torii brings to the table. 

 

Yes he's old. No, he's not 2002, or 2007 Torii. But signing Torii was an investment made in Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and Arcia (among others). And  let's be real: it's not like Trout or Stanton were available for peanuts and they decided to go with Torii instead. This was a strategic, cost conscious, investment made for the future, as well as a tip-of-the-cap to the past (and let's be real: fans love tip-of-the-caps to the past).

 

 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

Sign Aoki and trade for Bourjos.

 

You can't keep harping on bad pitching and then continue putting out poor fielding teams. I think guys like May, Gibson, Hughes, and Meyer should be given the best defense possible.

[Reider]

In order for the Twins to win half of their games, I think the pitching is going to have to come through. I am confident in the potential of the starting pitching, it's the bullpen that has a lot of question marks.

 

Defensively, the Twins will be quite solid in the infield. Suzuki is a veteran behind the plate, Joe Mauer showed improvement in the second half of the season last year, Plouffe has established himself defensively, Dozier has the ability and often does make spectacular plays. He's fantastic to watch. And Santana has a good tool set. Good range and a strong arm. If he can make the routine plays, he should be fine.

 

It's mainly the corner outfielders that are a question mark for me, defensively. Schafer has some wheels and can cover ground. Hopefully Arcia and Hunter can make good decisions to make up for their lack of ability to cover ground quickly.

 

One thing that people don't seem to be talking about a whole lot is the Twins' offensive abilities. Power was specifically mentioned, which was great, but I think in general this team has the potential to score a lot of runs and will in the future as well.

 

Does anyone recall last year when the Twins scored 42 runs (iirc) against Detroit later in the season, during a 3 or 4 game set? This was the set that made Torii Hunter into a believer. I believe the Twins' scoring ability will only improve if / when guys like Arcia, Vargas, Sano, and Buxton etc.. continue to improve and establish themselves at the MLB level.

 

I'm not sure how well the Twins will do this year because there are so many variables, but I am definitely feeling optimistic about the future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think we all agree that the Twins OF was pretty bad last year.  Eye test, metrics, whatever, it was bad.  The question is how many runs did it cost us, and how many will be saved by upgrading Hammer with Torii and 2014 Arcia with a hopefully improved 2015 Arcia. 

Willingham played 10% of our OF innings in 2014.  Willingham + Parmelee + Kubel + Colabello innings combined still didn't equal a full-time OF spot in 2014.  And given our depth chart, barring injury, Arcia will see more innings than he did in either 2013 or 2014.

 

And as a further variable, we've actually subtracted our three best defensive performers from our 2014 outfield too (Fuld, Santana, and Hicks).

[jimmer]

 

Willingham played 10% of our OF innings in 2014.  Willingham + Parmelee + Kubel + Colabello innings combined still didn't equal a full-time OF spot in 2014.  And given our depth chart, barring injury, Arcia will see more innings than he did in either 2013 or 2014.

 

And as a further variable, we've actually subtracted our three best defensive performers from our 2014 outfield too (Fuld, Santana, and Hicks).

I keep hearing about how there is too much negativity on this site lately.  Seems to me that after we've endured 4 seasons like we have the last 4 seasons and see the team go into this season with the roster they have, it's hard to see the positive unless we only want to talk about how the kids in the minors might do if/when they arrive.

 

I imagine most team sports sites are way more positive when a team is very good and they have been winning and when that time comes for the Twins, the negative to positive comment ratio should tilt to positive.