Ten worst contracts

Twins7 · February 9, 2015

Jonah Keri of Grantland gives his take on the ten worst contracts in the mlb, plus some honorable mentions.

http://grantland.com/features/worst-mlb-contracts-2015-alex-rodriguez-ryan-howard-prince-fielder/

I know that many see Joe Mauer's contract as a pretty bad contract at this point, with his lack of production last year, particularly the first half of the year. I know Parker wrote about his struggles recently, and there's been a lot of discussion on that thread about mauer; sorry if this is has already been discussed on that thread, I haven't read it through.

I do think it's an interesting debate, though. Mauer isn't listed by Jonah, not even as a (dis)honorable mention. Here is the only mention of Mauer (in the reasoning for listing Pujols where he is):

'It’s worth debating whether there’s more value in a player like Howard, who has pretty much zero meaningful impact at this stage of his career but will only haunt Phillies accountants for two more seasons, or a player like Pujols, who still contributes but is nowhere near the talent he used to be and is on the books for seven more seasons. Let’s hear what a couple of high-ranking baseball ops folks think:

“I think that the contracts where you’re essentially getting zero production or, even worse, you’re better off just dumping the guy rather than letting him hurt your team are the worst, regardless of money owed. Mauer and Votto and Cabrera are overpaid/well above their market value, but if you take the money out of the equation, at least you’re not making your team worse by having them. [b.J.] Upton, Ethier, and Howard, on the other hand, are complete sinkholes.”'

I think that that's a pretty reasonable argument. I also wouldn't list Mauer among the leagues worst contracts. I also wouldn't say the twins got their money's worth, at this point. Although, the argument could be made that they received a surplus of value during Mauer's prime years, when he wasn't being payed 23mil a year, making it sort of a wash. Not that it was necessarily the Twin's obligation to pay Mauer for that production, though.

diehardtwinsfan · February 9, 2015

I'd say with Mauer, his presence on this list will have a lot to do with how he does this year. Another injury riddled year with some ineffectiveness, and he's on it. If he produces closer to career norms, he certainly will get flack for the lack of power, but he'll still be productive.

big dog · February 9, 2015

I thought it was interesting to see how many of the worst contracts went to people that were being discussed as good targets for the Twins the last couple of years (and maybe they would have been good contracts at a reasonable price, though the outcome in many cases isn't worth much).

Nick Swisher

Michael Bourn

Edwin Jackson

Bronson Arroyo

Ubaldo Jiminez- the one-word description is "Oy".

Keri gives Texas the 2nd, 4th, and 5th worst contracts, plus a dishonorable mention.

gil4 · February 9, 2015

Keri gives Texas the 2nd, 4th, and 5th worst contracts, plus a dishonorable mention.

Which means plenty of good seats should be available for me when the Twins head that way... time to check the schedule

twinsajsf · February 9, 2015

The bottom line here is that the majority (ca. 70%) of big free agent contracts end up somewhere on the "bad" continuum. The fact that Mauer's contract, while bad, is not nearly as bad as a couple of dozen others' illustrates this point nicely. That is, Mauer's contract only looks really bad until you view it in the full context of the ridiculous nature of baseball contracts generally.

twinsfan34 · February 9, 2015

Mauer had one bad year...and it was after a concussion/injury riddled season.

2004 - knee - returned in 2005 to hit .294

2007 - quad - returned to hit .328 in 2008

2009 - lower back - returned to hit .365

2011 - bi-lateral leg - returned to hit .319

As we stand, Mauer is still trying to recover from the 2013 concussion. Most players who have a major concussion have shown they don't recover until the 2nd year.

Salvador Perez is another who hit .294 then got a concussion (not nearly as bad as Mauer's) and then hit only .260 at age 23 the following season. Alex Avila did worse from his concussion in 2013 to 2014...only to sustain 2 more in 2014.

But it looks like the season immediately following a concussion is always down and if the player recovers, the season after that they start to return to pre-concussion like production. For Mauer, his history shows he's been great at bouncing back and the concussion cycle would say he would bounce back this year as well, however, the other variable, age 32 is the wild card. So we could perhaps see what Mauer's age regression factor might be in 2015.

gunnarthor · February 9, 2015

Man, Twins never win anything.

nicksaviking · February 9, 2015

This list doesn't really appear to do this, but in my opinion, bad contracts should also be evaluated on how they affect the team. Even if Mauer's contract was terrible, it's not prohibiting the team from adding payroll.

Brock Beauchamp · February 9, 2015

Twins fans get too riled up about the Mauer contract. Yeah, it hasn't come up roses for the Twins but Mauer is still somewhat productive and can hopefully rebound in 2015.

Look at some of those other contracts to see some truly tear-inducing decisions made around MLB.

USAFChief · February 9, 2015

Joe Mauer! Not as bad as Ryan Howard!!

Steve Lein · February 9, 2015

In Mauer's case, I don't think it's there because it literally does not hurt their payroll. Sure it's a large percentage of it, and you would hope for production better than last years at that price, but you also have to consider that the Twins have been spending more money on FA's then they ever have the past few seasons, all while his contract was part of it.

Granted, you can say "well that's because they never spent such money" and I think you have a point, but it has not been an albatross preventing them from doing anything like some would like you to think.

dxpavelka · February 9, 2015

Jonah Keri of Grantland gives his take on the ten worst contracts in the mlb, plus some honorable mentions.

http://grantland.com/features/worst-mlb-contracts-2015-alex-rodriguez-ryan-howard-prince-fielder/

I know that many see Joe Mauer's contract as a pretty bad contract at this point, with his lack of production last year, particularly the first half of the year. I know Parker wrote about his struggles recently, and there's been a lot of discussion on that thread about mauer; sorry if this is has already been discussed on that thread, I haven't read it through.

I do think it's an interesting debate, though. Mauer isn't listed by Jonah, not even as a (dis)honorable mention. Here is the only mention of Mauer (in the reasoning for listing Pujols where he is):

'It’s worth debating whether there’s more value in a player like Howard, who has pretty much zero meaningful impact at this stage of his career but will only haunt Phillies accountants for two more seasons, or a player like Pujols, who still contributes but is nowhere near the talent he used to be and is on the books for seven more seasons. Let’s hear what a couple of high-ranking baseball ops folks think:

“I think that the contracts where you’re essentially getting zero production or, even worse, you’re better off just dumping the guy rather than letting him hurt your team are the worst, regardless of money owed. Mauer and Votto and Cabrera are overpaid/well above their market value, but if you take the money out of the equation, at least you’re not making your team worse by having them. [b.J.] Upton, Ethier, and Howard, on the other hand, are complete sinkholes.”'

I think that that's a pretty reasonable argument. I also wouldn't list Mauer among the leagues worst contracts. I also wouldn't say the twins got their money's worth, at this point. Although, the argument could be made that they received a surplus of value during Mauer's prime years, when he wasn't being payed 23mil a year, making it sort of a wash. Not that it was necessarily the Twin's obligation to pay Mauer for that production, though.

Totally agree with your points that maybe the Twins haven't gottne their money's worth on the contract and that they may have gotten a surplus in his prime years. Would love to see somebody do an analysis on some of these supposedly bad contracts and factor in a value received before the big contract as well as after.

amjgt · February 9, 2015

This analysis begs the question....Would you rather have a league average player for $23M (Mauer), or a player you'd prefer to cut for $15M (BJ Upton)?

amjgt · February 9, 2015

And, yes, Joe Mauer has been decidedly league average (I could argue actually below league average) since his move to 1B

jimmer · February 9, 2015

yeah, but he's also only been at 1B for one year. 31 players that are primarily 1Bs had 400 or more PAs and he was 16th in WAR. So right at average and peaking up in the 2nd half (9th in WAR for 1B)

D. Hocking · February 9, 2015

And, yes, Joe Mauer has been decidedly league average (I could argue actually below league average) since his move to 1B

His year at first base was also decidedly below his own career average. Hopefully the numbers will better this year. If not, and last year was his new norm, - then we might have a problem...

Twodogs · February 9, 2015

Well I also would think that when taken into consideration that when Mauer signed this mega contract he was considered by far one of the best hitting CATCHERS out there. Now as a first baseman he is average or maybe even below average unless he rips out a .320 BA with some RBI production and some 2B's power. So I think had Mauer signed this contract as a First baseman that he would be on the list. But most of his years up until recently have been at Catcher and it is usually hard to find great hitting catchers that I think that may be what is keeping him off this list, even in the dishonorable mention catagory.

jimmer · February 9, 2015

If Mauer hits the way he normally did, or close to what he normally did, he'll still be an above average 1B overall.

Brock Beauchamp · February 9, 2015

If Mauer hits the way he normally did, or close to what he normally did, he'll still be an above average 1B overall.

Yeah, by a big margin.

Posting an .800+ OPS in today's game puts you well above average at any position on the diamond.

amjgt · February 9, 2015

Well I also would think that when taken into consideration that when Mauer signed this mega contract he was considered by far one of the best hitting CATCHERS out there. Now as a first baseman he is average or maybe even below average unless he rips out a .320 BA with some RBI production and some 2B's power. So I think had Mauer signed this contract as a First baseman that he would be on the list. But most of his years up until recently have been at Catcher and it is usually hard to find great hitting catchers that I think that may be what is keeping him off this list, even in the dishonorable mention catagory.

I disagree. This is a look at contracts as they sit right now, not a look back at the strength of the original contract.

What's interesting is, I think I remember Mauer making this list a couple years ago, when he still was at catcher. It may have been ESPN's list, which I know is related to Grantland, but it was from a different writer.

jimmer · February 9, 2015

'What's interesting is, I think I remember Mauer making this list a couple years ago, when he still was at catcher.'

In 2012 and 2013, Mauer was worth over 20M in both years, so it's hard to believe that's true unless it was just for 2011.

If it was just for 2011, that would make it silly to judge an 8 year contract on one year. So, yeah, that would be about right for ESPN.

Seth Stohs · February 9, 2015

Just to put some additional information in this thread for people to discuss:

Year FanGraphs Dollars Value Mauer's Salary

2004 $ 3.7 M $0.325 M

2005 $ 11.4 M $ 0.325 M

2006 $ 23.1 M $0.4 M

2007 $ 12.7 M $ 3.75 M

2008 $ 26.5 M $ 6.25 M

2009 $ 34.4 M $ 10.5 M

2010 $ 20.8 M $ 12.5 M

2011 $ 6.0 M $ 23.0 M (knee injury)

2012 $ 21.0 M $ 23.0 M

2013 $ 25.6 M $ 23.0 M

2014 $ 10.4 M $ 23.0 M (late '13 concussion)

Total $195.0 M $ 126.0 M

Seth Stohs · February 9, 2015

I was curious, so I googled the article/blog I wrote at SethSpeaks.net when Joe Mauer Finally signed that long-term contract. I thought it would be fun to read again what my initial thoughts were, just about five years ago now. I think that it has played out as was or should have been expected...

This is the reality of long-term deals. They are what they are.

Don't Feed the Greed Guy · February 9, 2015

Two thoughts, remembering that no two concussions are alike:

1) Justin Morneau leads the NL in 2014 with a .319 BA, four years removed from his 7/7/2010 concussion. Reason to hope??

2) Did we keep the wrong first baseman?

Frankly, I would love to see Mauer medically cleared to catch again, as a backup. Fat chance. But a guy can hope, cant he? Morneau is under contract with the Rockies until the end of this year. Maybe we can trade Mauer and Torii for the Big Canadian?

Danchat · February 9, 2015

I think Joe should have deserved a dishonorable mention, but I wouldn't put him in the bottom 10.

ashbury · February 9, 2015

I was curious, so I googled the article/blog I wrote at SethSpeaks.net when Joe Mauer Finally signed that long-term contract. I thought it would be fun to read again what my initial thoughts were, just about five years ago now. I think that it has played out as was or should have been expected...

This is the reality of long-term deals. They are what they are.

You re-posted that link just to get us to see this gem:

NO, they should not trade Wilson Ramos, at least not for something as insignificant as a relief pitcher like Heath Bell!

I see right through you.

Monkeypaws · February 10, 2015

I saw this morsel in their discussion of Andrus's contract:

Aside from the Boras lesson, the main takeaway here is one that we’ll repeat several times throughout this column: When dealing with players who are still under team control for a couple more years, clubs should tread very carefully before offering an extension that won’t kick in until those years have expired. The consequences of failing to exercise that care can be disastrous.

Dozier sprang immediately to mind.

Larsbars08 · February 10, 2015

The thing about Mauer's contract is that I don't think it has ever stopped the Twins from going out and signing anybody. There have been plenty of valid reasons not to go out and try and sign the big money guys, and the general lack of quality players on the big league team the last 4 years has had much more of a effect than $23 million dollars invested in Mauer each year. Even with the free agent spending bonanza (relative to previous years) the last couple years, the Twins payroll is still below $100 million. The players who will make the Twins a contender will be extremely cheap for the next 4 to 6 years at which point Mauer's contract will be over.

ashbury · February 10, 2015

the Twins payroll is still below $100 million.

bb-ref's main page shows it a little above that now, a $107.5M estimate.

twinsajsf · February 10, 2015

Just to put some additional information in this thread for people to discuss:

Year FanGraphs Dollars Value Mauer's Salary
2004 $ 3.7 M $0.325 M
2005 $ 11.4 M $ 0.325 M
2006 $ 23.1 M $0.4 M
2007 $ 12.7 M $ 3.75 M
2008 $ 26.5 M $ 6.25 M
2009 $ 34.4 M $ 10.5 M
2010 $ 20.8 M $ 12.5 M
2011 $ 6.0 M $ 23.0 M (knee injury)
2012 $ 21.0 M $ 23.0 M
2013 $ 25.6 M $ 23.0 M
2014 $ 10.4 M $ 23.0 M (late '13 concussion)

Total $195.0 M $ 126.0 M

Dang, Seth, I already had my mind made up; why are you confusing me with facts .

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