Does Max Scherzer Make Us Favorites

[lightfoot789]

I did some wondering and pondering lately.  The Twins posted an offense last year that was amongst the best in the game in terms of runs scored.  That being said: The Twins should only be getting better offensively with the talent coming up soon (Rosario / Buxton / Sano / Vargas / Santana / Pinto?).

 

If the Twins went out of character and signed Scherzer to a huge 5 year contract - Where would they rank in the AL going into 2015?

 

Scherzer (#1)

Hughes (#2)

Santana (#3)

Nolasco (#4)

Gibson (#5)

 

Fill Ins - Meyer; May; Milone;  & Pelfry as needed

 

Try to stay optimistic people.  Why wait when you can shock the world now?

Low contracts with a prospect filled team offensively, and huge contracts with pitchers.

That will all flip in a few years when those other high end pitching prospects come to age and the younger hitters will need to be paid.

 

Thoughts..............................  Again stay optimistic and answer - WHAT IF?

 

[ashbury]

Again stay optimistic

Clearly, WORLD SERIES baby!

[DuluthFan]

I vote yes. By signing him you also take him away from a division rival.

[gunnarthor]

If the rotation stayed healthy, yes. ESPN etc probably wouldn't label them as favorites though.

[maxisagod]

 

 

...

Scherzer (#1)

Hughes (#2)

Santana (#3)

Nolasco (#4)

Gibson (#5)

...

 

 

 

That's a classic 1-5 rotation. Even with the same offensive production as last year, they're in the wild card hunt all year... like most of the teams.  But, Is Gibson a #5 pitcher? I'd argue right now, he's proven he's a 4 at least. And is Nolasco contract workable with the Scherzer deal? I'd say you sell low on Nolasco and try to clear 80% of his contract, and save the 5 spot for a rookie that needs to show if he's a long term piece or not. 

 

Scherzer (#1)

Hughes (#2)

Santana (#3)

Gibson (#4)

May/ Meyer (#5)

[twinsnorth49]

Twins Sign Scherzer?………….

 

http://i.giphy.com/RrMHH4morVkKA.gif

[glunn]

I think that with BOTH Scherzer and Shields the Twins could contend, but Steve Carrell might explode.

[lightfoot789]

This would be the first over the top thing management ever did and it would put them at a price tag still lower than most contenders.  But boy would we look good for those 5 years and beyond.  MN fans would sell out Target field and they would make a lot of that money back.  The people of MN will support a team if it's a winner.

[Thrylos]

I think that Scherzer will further decline in 2015.  Already close to 2 mph off his peak velocity and he is in the wrong side of 30.  I think that in 2 years Meyer will be better, so the Twins should not pull the trigger.

 

As far as competing:  If you think that 2 pitchers and a geriatric DH who will play OF will make a 92 loss team a 92 win team, you must believe that what held that team back was Gardenhire & Co

[Major League Ready]

1) Lester got six years.  Scherzer is not going to accept a 5 year deal.  The goal of these elite free agents is to get paid for as many years as possible after their performance is likely to fade.  

2) Elite FAs have their choice of where they want to go.  Why in the world would he come to a team with a horrible defense.  And, why would he chose a team that project to win 85 games or less even with him.  Bidding so high he can't say no is too ignore reality.  This might be possible if you are one of the couple of teams at the very top in terms of revenue.  For a team near the bottom it is the equivalent of someone with a 40K income buying a $100K BMW.  You might find a way to get it done but it is foolish.

[Mike Sixel]

No. Even if they signed him (hahahahahahahahahaha, good one), they would still have a terrible defense. And, I am not as confident as many about the offense right now.

[nicksaviking]

He'd be great on this team next year, probably the year after, But when he hits his decline, he's going to hit it hard.  He either misses the bat or gives up hard contact, so when his velocity starts waning, he's going to get rocked. 

 

He's also terribly inefficient with his piches.  He was third in the league in pitches thrown but only 8th in innings pitched.  The two guys who threw more pitches than him, Price and Cueto threw over 20 more innings than he did.  He averaged 16.5 pitches per inning.  Had Gardy been his manager, he would have been pulled after the 6th most games as he would have hit the 100 pitch mark.  We're looking at a guy, who if he was in a Twins uniform, would more likely be putting up an IP number closer to a Francisco Liriano season. I didn't like Gardy's insistance on pitch counts, but I don't see any way that Sherzer's inefficiency isn't going to come back and strangle him when he has to rely on veteran guile instead of his overpowering heater. 

 

And that's if he doesn't end up blowing out his arm before his natural age decline sets in. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm confused at the commentary about post 2015.....since that wasn't the question......

[nicksaviking]

I'm confused at the commentary about post 2015.....since that wasn't the question......

 

Oh, well yes, then my opinion would be that they would be better, I also think the AL Central is going to be fairly bad this year.  An 89 win team may be able to win.  I do not see the Twins winning 89 games, but stranger things have happened.

 

However even with the slight chance of making the playoffs, I'd prefer to not sacrifice the future for a long shot at glory and I do believe that anyone who signs Scherzer is going to soon regret it.

[Mike Sixel]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

 

or not.....

[TheLeviathan]

No.  No it would not.

[ashbury]

MN fans would sell out Target field and they would make a lot of that money back. 

I know you asked for optimism.  But if you're delving into realism, I have to respond that baseball is still a business, and (to oversimplify only slightly) teams sign a player for more than major league minimum only when they expect to get more in revenue than the outlay - butts in the seats, jersey sales, and so on.  The Twins expect to get more than $10M revenue from signing Torii Hunter than if they didn't sign him, etc.  Signing Scherzer and getting "a lot" of the money back is a non-starter.

[Craig Arko]

I took a little peek back and found in 1991, the A's and Reds were considered preseason favorites.

 

I'm okay with the underdog role.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

 

or not.....

interesting that FG thinks Pinto will get more plate appearances than suzuki

 

Agreed, this team needs more than one piece to contend in 2015

[Thrylos]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

 

or not.....

 

This is fantasy

 

Check the middle infielder PA projection:

 

Brian Dozier 639, Jorge Polanco 596, Danny Santana 589, Eduardo Escobar 443, Doug Bernier 367, Eduardo Nunez  318 = 2952

Divide by 162 = 18 PAs per game for middle infielders.  That is playing middle infielders in 4 positions in every game pretty much.  

 

Those are calculated ceilings and are really tied to the previous season performance and are spewed out without a human editorial intervention (and it shows)

 

Check those PA projections in the 2 groups below:

 

Jose Martinez  487 

Aaron Hicks  500 

Heiker Meneses  446 

Max Kepler  407 

James Beresford 512

Adam Walker  568 

Brock Peterson  497 

Eric Farris  525 

Travis Harrison  554 

Danny Ortiz  509

 

 

Chris Parmelee  491 

Chris Rahl  384

Jason Kubel  303

 

The chances of all of AA players like Walker and Harrison having more PAs in the MLB level than Hicks are zero.   And I think that the chances of Jason Kubel having any PAs with the Twins are close to my chances of having any PAs with the Twins in 2015...

[ExpectMorePayLess]

I'm sure you never thought Vargas (234 PA's) would have more PA's than Hicks (225 PA's) either in 2014.  And you would have had to be psychic to think Santana would have (430 PA's) in 2014.  That's 205 more than Hicks in 2014.  Never say "Zero" chance .  Even though those two AA guys (Harrison & Walker)  are not on 40 man roster, you should never say "Zero".

 

If one of them hits .350 and leads the minors in HR's and RBI's, whose to say what management might do by mid season?

 

Did you have last years promotions on your radar at this time last year?

[RedBull34]

This is fantasy

 

Check the middle infielder PA projection:

 

Brian Dozier 639, Jorge Polanco 596, Danny Santana 589, Eduardo Escobar 443, Doug Bernier 367, Eduardo Nunez  318 = 2952

Divide by 162 = 18 PAs per game for middle infielders.  That is playing middle infielders in 4 positions in every game pretty much.  

 

Those are calculated ceilings and are really tied to the previous season performance and are spewed out without a human editorial intervention (and it shows)

 

Check those PA projections in the 2 groups below:

 

Jose Martinez  487 

Aaron Hicks  500 

Heiker Meneses  446 

Max Kepler  407 

James Beresford 512

Adam Walker  568 

Brock Peterson  497 

Eric Farris  525 

Travis Harrison  554 

Danny Ortiz  509

 

 

Chris Parmelee  491 

Chris Rahl  384

Jason Kubel  303

 

The chances of all of AA players like Walker and Harrison having more PAs in the MLB level than Hicks are zero.   And I think that the chances of Jason Kubel having any PAs with the Twins are close to my chances of having any PAs with the Twins in 2015...

"Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future."

 

I don't believe you read the whole article.

[D. Hocking]

I guess we will have to wait seven more years to find out if he can make the Twins relevant.  (Hopefully we will not still be rebuilding at that point)/

 

I have heard the Twins were his second choice, that they offered more money per year, but only offered six years.  Actually if that were the case, there are probably some valid reasons not to offer a pitcher a seven year contract.

[Linus]

Never mattered to me.  My fantasies involve Kate Upton, not Max Scherzer...............

[Seth Stohs]

7 years, $210 million... to be paid at $15 million for each of the next 14 years. Just wow!

 

That said, as I like to say, I'd rather the money go to the players than kept by the owners. 

 

Now rumors are that Strasburg may be available. 

[TheLeviathan]

That said, as I like to say, I'd rather the money go to the players than kept by the owners. 

 

How about some for us by slicing concession prices in half?

[Linus]

Or that tickets in the nosebleed seats don't cost $30, much less $130 behind home plate....

[Dantes929]

I think that Scherzer will further decline in 2015.  Already close to 2 mph off his peak velocity and he is in the wrong side of 30.  I think that in 2 years Meyer will be better, so the Twins should not pull the trigger.

 

As far as competing:  If you think that 2 pitchers and a geriatric DH who will play OF will make a 92 loss team a 92 win team, you must believe that what held that team back was Gardenhire & Co

What was it we added in 1991 to become worst to first?   Aging pitcher and an untested rookie (with no plan B for 2nd base by the way unless you consider Newman to be a viable plan     

[tobi0040]

7 years, $210 million... to be paid at $15 million for each of the next 14 years. Just wow!

 

That said, as I like to say, I'd rather the money go to the players than kept by the owners. 

 

Now rumors are that Strasburg may be available. 

 

Signing Max to this deal at 30.5, versus investing in a 26 year old Strasburg or a 28 year old Zimmerman will be a huge mistake.

 

Career ERA's.  Stras 3.02, Zimmerman 3.24, Scherzer 3.58.

 

Stras has 3 more years of control, something tells me if they through 8-190M at him he would take it.   Much rather have Stras at 26-34 than Max at 30.5 to 37.5.

[jimmer]

Signing Max to this deal at 30.5, versus investing in a 26 year old Strasburg or a 28 year old Zimmerman will be a huge mistake.

 

Career ERA's.  Stras 3.02, Zimmerman 3.24, Scherzer 3.58.

 

Stras has 3 more years of control, something tells me if they through 8-190M at him he would take it.   Much rather have Stras at 26-34 than Max at 30.5 to 37.5.

Strasburg and Zimmerman have both exclusively pitched in the NL.  Scherzer has spent the last 5 in the AL. Comparing their career ERAs (and just that sta) seems odd to do.

 

Strasburg also has injury issues and I doubt, due to all the hype that's always been around him, that he is going to extend and/or give any kind of discount.