Does Max Scherzer Make Us Favorites

[jimmer]

 

So I just think the value Max provides at ages 30.5 to 37.5 over the alternative is worth a heckuva lot less than $210M.  This deal 2-3 years from now could easily fall into the somebody please take this from me category. 

 

They were 9th in runs last year and lose 26 HR and 91 RBI from LaRoche. Seems like more of a need.

Well, again, the number may say 210, but due to it being spread out, it's equivalant to 7 years /170M range contract as pointed out earlier. LaRoche over the last two years has been worth an average one 1 WAR. In fact, in his 11 year career, he's barely over 12 WAR total. Didn't lose much there.

[tobi0040]

Well, again, the number may say 210, but due to it being spread out, it's equivalant to 7 years /170M range contract as pointed out earlier. LaRoche over the last two years has been worth an average one 1 WAR. In fact, in his 11 year career, he's barely over 12 WAR total. Didn't lose much there.

 

Regarding time value of money, all the other contracts we are comparing with are also reduced as well,  not as much because they are stretched out as far, but Kershaw's deal won't technically be $210M either. This logic would result in more longer team deals, which does not seem to be an ideal situation for teams. And we don't know how the defferred money will impact future payroll, so that is a wild card.  The Mets are still making payroll decisions based on Bobby Bonilla and many other players, such as Griffey, Johan for the Mets, A-Rod, etc. have deferred money still owed to them. It is hard to evaluate these deals if they are impacting future teams and neither one of us know if that is the case.  

 

The Nationals were 9th in runs last year and LaRoche, WAR be dammed was 3rd in both OPS and OPS plus on the team.  So one could argue they had a more immediate need in the lineup rather than the pitching staff.  They have at least as much uncertainty in the lineup as well, Span is in his last year and Harper is in the same boat as Stras.  The difference is $210M could have bought them 3-4 really nice bats.

[jimmer]

My point was replacing LaRoche's loss shouldn't be that difficult and since he's a below average MLB starter overall, I'll stick with that point, regardless of your position on WAR in this instance.

 

and something I was going to mention earlier but didn't.  While the Nats may have only been 9th in the majors in runs, they were 3rd in the NL, which is who they compete most with.  One of those teams ahead of them plays with an unfair home advantage and the other has the biggest payroll in the game.  The DH in the AL is a big advantage and should be taken into account when comparing offense.  

 

Their offense is much better than you make it out to be and their starting pitching is likely going to be a problem in the next couple years as they very well could lose Stras, Fister and Zim.

[jimmer]

As far as replacing Laroche's production, moving Zimmerman to 1B hopefully keeps him healthy and healthy he's better than LaRoche.  Rendon permanently takes Zimmerman's spot while Escobar takes 2B.  Shouldn't see much if any dropoff.

[tobi0040]

My point was replacing LaRoche's loss shouldn't be that difficult and since he's a below average MLB starter overall, I'll stick with that point, regardless of your position on WAR in this instance.

 

and something I was going to mention earlier but didn't.  While the Nats may have only been 9th in the majors in runs, they were 3rd in the NL, which is who they compete most with.  One of those teams ahead of them plays with an unfair home advantage and the other has the biggest payroll in the game.  The DH in the AL is a big advantage and should be taken into account when comparing offense.  

 

Their offense is much better than you make it out to be and their starting pitching is likely going to be a problem in the next couple years as they very well could lose Stras, Fister and Zim.

 

I guess I don't follow the they are going to lose two pitcher logic, given that they had $210M at their disposal.  $210M would have kept at least one there and Lucas Giolito will be up in 1-2 years.  He is going to be a stud with 6 years of control.

 

Either way, we see this differently and that is fine. 

[jimmer]

I guess I don't follow the they are going to lose two pitcher logic, given that they had $210M at their disposal.  $210M would have kept at least one there and Lucas Giolito will be up in 1-2 years.  He is going to be a stud with 6 years of control.

 

Either way, we see this differently and that is fine. 

Not two, three pitchers:  Stras, Fister and Zimmerman. And they had that 210M at their disposal because THAT pitcher was willing to extend his payments out giving them more payroll flexibility.  We don't know if the other three would have extended and/or done the extended payment part. We also don't know how Giolito will be at the MLB level yet. But yeah, IF Giolito works out, IF Roarck wasn't a fluke and IF Stras or Zimm would have been willing to extend before hitting the FA market maybe things work out.  Lots of Ifs.

 

In any event, I'm glad the Twins don't have such problems ;-)

[tobi0040]

Not two, three pitchers:  Stras, Fister and Zimmerman. And they had that 210M at their disposal because THAT pitcher was willing to extend his payments out giving them more payroll flexibility.  We don't know if the other three would have extended and/or done the extended payment part. We also don't know how Giolito will be at the MLB level yet. But yeah, IF Giolito works out, IF Roarck wasn't a fluke and IF Stras or Zimm would have been willing to extend before hitting the FA market maybe things work out.  Lots of Ifs.

 

In any event, I'm glad the Twins don't have such problems ;-)

 

The difference between the two of us, I view Max's production from 30.5 to 37.5, based on the history of pitchers, even elite pitchers through that age range as an IF as well.  Now they have locked up that money for 14 years and probably means sending younger guys out the door.

 

The certainties they had were:

 

Gio and Stras for two years.  Zimmerman and Fister for one.  Roark under control for 5 more years.  And about as good of a pitching prospect as exist in MLB.

 

With $210M they could have probably locked up any one of those, or Gio and had a ton of money left over.

[jimmer]

The difference between the two of us, I view Max's production from 30.5 to 37.5, based on the history of pitchers, even elite pitchers through that age range as an IF as well.  Now they have locked up that money for 14 years and probably means sending younger guys out the door.

 

The certainties they had were:

 

Gio and Stras for two years.  Zimmerman and Fister for one.  Roark under control for 5 more years.  And about as good of a pitching prospect as exist in MLB.

 

With $210M they could have probably locked up any one of those, or Gio and had a ton of money left over.

Again, I'm glad the twins don't have such problems :-)

[tobi0040]

Again, I'm glad the twins don't have such problems :-)

 

I just read the bio of Ted Lerner and I see the light.   The guy is worth $4.6B.  He is 89.  Largest land-owner in DC region.

 

I don't think he is overly concerned about paying Max $105M starting in 2022!  The Tigers owner is kind of in the same boat, he just wants to win a world series and is willing to lose money in order to do it because a few million doesn't matter to him.