Is Kennys Vargas the Real McCoy?

[Bark's Lounge]

For the most part, I really enjoyed watching Vargas hit for the Twins in the last 2 months of the season. It was actually a highlight for me. Who does not like to see a batter crush a baseball into regions of Target Field that we have barely or have not witnessed before?

 

I want to see Kennys succeed, but I can see a scenario where he falls off the cliff, and may never be heard from again. In the minors he has not had a dominant full season, he had an abbreviated season in 2012 with a 1.030OPS in 2012 in Low A ball, but if memory serves me correctly, that was his drug suspension season. If he took a BB in majors like he did in the minors, I would have more hope, but he does not seem like a guy who can take a walk very much. He had 12 walks with 2 being intentional with the Twins in 2014 with 230PA and he strikes out a ton.

 

In 2015 the league should catch up with him, unless he has made adjustments, and maybe entering his inner mojo of unleashing his potential he has come full circle with his hitting talent. He has put up decent power numbers in the minors the last few years, but nothing that blows your socks off.

 

The guy is 270lbs., and 6'5", if things fall into place and he finds his mojo, this guy can be a HR hitting DH phenomenon. I am very cautiously optimistic, but I am prepared to see him fail like similar players from the distant past, like Sam Horn and Bob Hamelin.

 

What do you folks think?

[TheLeviathan]

I expect him to regress this year and come back strong in 2016.

[Willihammer]

Personally I would not be surprised if the league's adjustment to him was "stop throwing this guy a hittable strike" and his walks shoot up. Yeah he had a high BABIP but he also recorded the hardest hit ball of the season. If you crush balls you're going to have a high BABIP. Switch hitter, seems to keep his bat through the zone a long time. I think he's the real deal.

 

edit: Looked up his BABIP in the minor leagues. It was .380. For comparison, Mauer, who's always had a high LD% with an above average BABIP, was .367 in his minor league career.

[HitInAPinch]

I expect him to regress this year and come back strong in 2016.

 

MLB pitchers started catching up to him last year.  Bruno's work continues......

[TheLeviathan]

MLB pitchers started catching up to him last year.  Bruno's work continues......

 

Yup and I hope what people remember is that this comes with prospect development.  Players have to make adjustments and that usually entails a drop in production.  It just means we have to temper our immediate expectations for the kid, but I'm with the other posters here - I'm all-in on Vargas being a big-time part of the solution here.

[DocBauer]

All of the above. He's young and bypassing AAA and he's doing so because he is so talented. I know scouting reports were limited in him, but he looked anything but overwhelmed in his debut last season. And remember, the level of play and the pitchers were new to him as well. Yes, there will be some growing pains, there always is. But he has real talent and ability from both sides of the plate, that's why he's been so productive, and why he jumped AAA. He also has some great support around him.

 

We talk about the "it" factor at times, and I believe Vargas has that. There are some who argue RBI is an overrated stat. And while that may be true to a degree, it's still important to score more than the other guy. How many times, the past few seasons, have we seen runners in scoring position, often at 3B with one or no outs, and see batters flailing with SO's, popping out, or hitting an infield dribbler. Never estimate the clutch ability of a batter to just put good wood to leather and get the ball out of the infield.

[nytwinsfan]

Yeah, his BABIP and batting average will probably regress. But he's shown the ability to take walks in the minors, and as some people pointed out above, he may have accumulated more walks later in the season as pitchers stopped throwing him as many meatballs.  I expect his BB rate to improve next year, while still having an overall regression in terms of OPS.

[Halsey Hall]

He's up to 280 now.  If he can adjust to ML pitching he'll be fine.  If not, destined to the minor leagues.  He's going to show up in Ft Myers around the 19th, and then head north to Fest.  Good guy, I'm pulling for him. 

[RedBull34]

He's up to 280 now.  If he can adjust to ML pitching he'll be fine.  If not, destined to the minor leagues.  He's going to show up in Ft Myers around the 19th, and then head north to Fest.  Good guy, I'm pulling for him. 

To be fair isn't this true for just about every prospect?

[Halsey Hall]

Not all, as Vargas looks to be mostly dh.  Most prospects have a position if not more than one they can play.  One thing is he can hit from both sides with a ton of power, so that's unique. 

[nicksaviking]

I agree with those drumming up his BB abilities.  He hit well but didn't walk much at the MLB level but was pretty good at getting on base in the minors.  A switch hitter with power potential will stick around for a long time if he can get on base, even if can only (barely) play 1B and his average drops.

 

A guy like that who can't walk will flame out in no time however.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I expect him to regress this year and come back strong in 2016.

Concur. He might hold steady to his 2014 numbers but that's the highest ceiling I'd predict for him in 2015.

 

In all likelihood, I expect regression with a rebound coming in late 2015 or the 2016 season.

[dxpavelka]

I agree with those drumming up his BB abilities.  He hit well but didn't walk much at the MLB level but was pretty good at getting on base in the minors.  A switch hitter with power potential will stick around for a long time if he can get on base, even if can only (barely) play 1B and his average drops.

 

A guy like that who can't walk will flame out in no time however.

"I've found that you don't need to wear a necktie if you can hit."-  Ted Williams

[Brock Beauchamp]

"I've found that you don't need to wear a necktie if you can hit."-  Ted Williams

Said the guy whose career isolated discipline was an absurdly high .138.

[Steve Lein]

I think Kennys will find similar BB-taking and on-base percentage success moving forward.

 

A lot of times prospects come up and they want to assert or prove themselves right away. They do this by swinging the bat. I think this is what Kennys was doing, and he was pretty successful.

 

He's also playing winter ball, and though he hit just .263 in the Puerto Rico regular season, his on-base percentage was .430. He drew nearly a walk per game, with 33 BB's in 37 games, and struck out just 30 times. His BB% there was 22%.

 

He definitely has this ability, and I think this will be a part of his game he improves in the majors this season, even if some other areas may regress.

[Dr. Evil]

Vargas will be a stud this year and for many years. I'm very excited about this guy. Low end, he is Prince Fielder and high end he is Big Papi. Just my opinion.

[mori0189]

I was hoping for a .250 Ave, 350 OBP, and 450 Slug.  That would make me happy.  A little regression on the batting average and a good improvement on the BB's.  We will sure see though.  Hoping for a great season from Kennys.

[TheLeviathan]

Vargas will be a stud this year and for many years. I'm very excited about this guy. Low end, he is Prince Fielder and high end he is Big Papi. Just my opinion.

 

I'm excited about him but whoa man...you may want to slow your roll on that a bit.  At least for a little bit to let him develop or you're going to be disappointed.

[Physics Guy]

I'm excited about him but whoa man...you may want to slow your roll on that a bit.  At least for a little bit to let him develop or you're going to be disappointed.

Come on now, don't curb his enthusiasm.  "Just call him butter, 'cause he's on a roll."

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The neat thing to me about Vargas is that he is a switch hitter and crushes the ball from both sides. He didn't hit many HRs right handed - but I can still picture the one he hit against the White Sox late last year at Target Field. It was a distinctive sound and the ball was in the stands in no time at all.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v35935381/cws-min-vargas-drills-a-no-doubter-to-left-field

 

 

He's a fun player to watch, I hope he keeps adjusting to the league as it adjusts to him.

[stringer bell]

I have liked Vargas since I saw him hitting in ST a couple years ago.  His prospect status was effected by not playing full seasons and being considered "bat only" at a young age.  DHs just aren't considered as valuable as other position players unless they really rake. 

 

Vargas skipped AAA and does have some holes in his swing, but the power is epic and he is a switch hitter.  I am slightly concerned by his lack of productivity as a RH hitter, but from what I remember, he didn't have severe platoon splits in the minors. 

 

It wouldn't surprise me to see Kennys struggle this year and it is possible he will need to go to AAA at some point, but I think that he'll be a good major league hitter for a good period of time.

[markos]

I was very bearish on Vargas for several reasons:

- Unsustainable BABIP supported initial success

- Swing at everything approach (almost identical to Arcia)

- 5/1 K-to-BB ratio

- Through 234 PAs, his OPS is lower than Pinto and Parmelee through the same number of PAs to start their careers.

- Generally mediocre prospect pedigree, and significantly worse numbers than Arcia and Pinto at the same minor-league levels.

 

However, I am now a little more optimistic due to a couple reasons:

- Raw power. He hit several of the longest and hardest-hit homers this year. As Arcia has shown, you can overcome a lot of plate discipline issues by hitting the ball really, really hard when you do manage to make contact.

- Plate coverage. Surprisingly, Vargas was among the best on the team at making contact on strikes (88%, same as Mauer, higher than Plouffe and Dozier). Contrast that with Arcia, who is among the worst in baseball at swinging and missing on pitches in the strike zone. Almost all of Vargas's strikeout issues seem to come from swinging (and missing) too much on balls. That seems like something that is fixable with more experience, rather than a mechanical issue.

 

That said, I'm not as optimistic as some people on this thread (floor of Prince Fielder!!), and I'm still a little confused why Vargas has been anointed as the starting DH and cleanup hitter with very little debate or skepticism. Considering that it seems fairly likely (as many on this thread have already mentioned) that he could be sent down to AAA sometime next year, having him penciled in (with a backup plan in place) and expecting him to hit 6 or 7 in the lineup seems more prudent.

[dxpavelka]

Said the guy whose career isolated discipline was an absurdly high .138.

Or you could just say he walked a lot.  No need to re-invent the wheel.

[ashbury]

Or you could just say he walked a lot.  No need to re-invent the wheel.

Ty Cobb was a hell of a hitter.  I don't think numbers are necessary to convince you of that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Or you could just say he walked a lot.  No need to re-invent the wheel.

Well, OBP is more than walks but Williams didn't rack up many HBP so the bulk of his OBP was in fact from walking a lot.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Well, OBP is more than walks but Williams didn't rack up many HBP so the bulk of his OBP was in fact from walking a lot.

The story goes that as a rookie a few vets tried to intimidate Williams by beaning him and/or throwing brush back pitches high and tight. There were a couple well-documented instances in which he was brushed back and responded by hitting home runs or long doubles in his next at bat or later in same at-bat, so the book on Williams became that hitting him or pitching inside just made him better.

[ashbury]

The story goes that as a rookie a few vets tried to intimidate Williams by beaning him and/or throwing brush back pitches high and tight. There were a couple well-documented instances in which he was brushed back and responded by hitting home runs or long doubles in his next at bat or later in same at-bat, so the book on Williams became that hitting him or pitching inside just made him better.

I remember seeing a highly touted prospect get brushed back and nearly beaned in a very scary way, in a game in Columbus around 1995 or 1996.  He dusted himself off, and put the very next pitch deep over the left field wall.  I said to myself, man, this guy's the real deal, and he's *ready*. 

 

The name of this future Hall of Famer?  Ruben Rivera.  Oh well.

[Bark's Lounge]

I remember seeing a highly touted prospect get brushed back and nearly beaned in a very scary way, in a game in Columbus around 1995 or 1996.  He dusted himself off, and put the very next pitch deep over the left field wall.  I said to myself, man, this guy's the real deal, and he's *ready*. 

 

The name of this future Hall of Famer?  Ruben Rivera.  Oh well.

You win some, you lose some. At least Ruben's cousin will go into the Hall of Fame uncontested.

[USAFChief]

Well, OBP is more than walks but Williams didn't rack up many HBP so the bulk of his OBP was in fact from walking a lot.

The lifetime .344 BA had something to do with it as well.

[Thrylos]

I think that these 2014 splits tell the story for Vargas:

 

vs RHP (133 PA) .309/.338/.561, 8 HR
vs LHP (101 PA) .228/.287/.315, 1 HR
HOME (119 PA) .297/.319/.586, 8 HR
AWAY (115 PA) ..250/.313/.317, 1 HR

 

So, if there is a righty pitching at Target Field, it will be safe to say that he will rock it, but if there is a LHP on the road, you better sit him (and start someone like Hunter at DH )

 

I assume that he will adjust and learn and improve.  His walk rate increase is really encouraging...