Article: Which Twins Prospects Could Debut in 2015?

[Seth Stohs]

Welcome to 2015! For a baseball player, one of life’s greatest moments is getting that call that you have been promoted to the big leagues. Several Twins received that call in 2014. Today, I thought it would be fun to consider which Twins players could get that call and make 2015 a very memorable year for them.On May 3, Aaron Hicks was on the 7-day concussion list. Danny Santana was called up from Rochester where he had only played in 24 games, all at shortstop. The club was ready to send shortstop Pedro Florimon to the minor leagues. However, given the struggles of Hicks and the attempts to play Eduardo Escobar in centerfield, it wasn’t long before Santana was the team’s leadoff hitter and centerfielder. He was 23 and far outperformed his minor league track record with the bat. He goes into the 2015 season looking to avoid a sophomore slump while moving back in to shortstop.

 

On July 31, the Twins traded Sam Fuld to the A’s for Tommy Milone. Earlier, the Twins had traded DH Kendrys Morales to the Mariners. Soon after, the Twins announced that 1B/DH Kennys Vargas had been called up from AA New Britain to take Fuld’s spot on the roster. He turned 24 on August 1^st, the same day on which he made his big league debut. Weeks earlier, Vargas had played in the Futures Game at Target Field. He was in a major slump with the Rock Cats, but came up and immediately provided the Twins with a power bat in the middle of the lineup. He hit 10 doubles and nine home runs in 53 games with the Twins.

 

AJ Achter was the Twins 46^th round pick in 2010 out of Michigan State. Since moving to the bullpen full time in 2012, he has been the most consistent performer of any reliever in the Twins system. When the Red Wings 2014 playoff dreams were dashed on the second-to-last day of the season, Achter found out that he would be heading to Target Field to debut with the Twins. He posted a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings over seven games. He picked up his first MLB win in Detroit against the team he followed as a child.

 

UPDATE - Note that LHP Logan Darnell, RHP Yohan Pino and infielder Jorge Polanco also made their major league debuts in 2014.

 

So, which Twins prospects could get that all-important call in 2015 to join the Minnesota Twins? Obviously being on the 40-man roster makes it easier for a player to be called up. However, adding a player to the 40-man roster is rarely an issue when needed. (Note: the percentage shown is the percentage chance that the player reaches the big leagues in 2015, in my opinion)

 

40-Man Roster Options

 

JR Graham (51%) – As a Rule 5 pick, the Twins will need to keep Graham on the 40-man roster or offer him back to Atlanta. Few Rule 5 picks stay with the team that drafts them and Graham certainly has some things to prove, but with his skill set and talent, they may choose to keep him around anyway. And, there is some small chance that the Twins will be able to work out a trade to keep Graham in the system.

 

Alex Meyer (99.999%) – Meyer is going to debut with the Twins in 2014. No question. When will he get that opportunity? That is the question. I think the odds of him starting the season in the Twins starting rotation is very low, maybe 10% However, there is a decent chance that he starts the season in the Twins bullpen, maybe as much as a 30% chance. It won’t be long before he gets the call and starts contributing in the big leagues.

 

Miguel Sano (90%) – After missing all of 2014, it is going to take Sano time to shake off the rust. No doubt, that will take some time, and we will need to be patient. I expect that he will be up around July and certainly for September.

 

Eddie Rosario (78%) – After a disappointing 2014 season, for various reasons, Rosario performed very well in the Arizona Fall League. He has made the move back to full-time outfielder. He’s got parts of his game he will need to continue to work on and improve, but he could surface as an option if the centerfield situation doesn’t play out well early in the season. He should certainly be in line for a September call-up and get time in left field as well.

 

Max Kepler (10%) – Kepler had a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League as well. I think there’s a decent chance that he will return to Ft. Myers for the start of the 2015 season before moving up to New Britain. If things go very well, he could get a September call-up. Fortunately, he has three option years remaining so the Twins can afford to be patient and let his performance catch up to his tools.

 

Jason Wheeler (15%) – Four members of the Twins Opening Day starting rotation are set. Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey, Trevor May and Alex Meyer will all be given a shot at the fifth starter job. However, over the course of the season, other starters may be needed as well. Wheeler made 13 starts back in Ft. Myers. He made one start in Rochester, but has posted a 2.78 ERA in 12 starts at New Britain too. He still has room for improvement, but he’s definitely worth watching.

 

Not on the 40-Man Roster

 

Byron Buxton (51%) – Had he not missed so much time in 2014 due to injury, Buxton likely would have debuted with the Twins at age 20. Unfortunately, like Sano, Buxton is going to need to shake off some rust while at the same time moving up to Double-A. Expect that things won’t come easy at the start for the uber-talented outfielder. Even if he struggles, he remains one of baseball’s best prospects. That said, I think he figures things out quickly, and if healthy, he could be wearing a Twins uniform in August. Because he doesn’t need to be added to the Twins 40-man roster until after the 2016 season, it makes no sense to call him up for just September. Might as well save the roster spot and call him up in May 2016.

 

Nick Burdi (75%) – The Twins drafted Burdi in June out of Louisville. The flame-thrower sits in the upper-90s and often hits triple-digits. Early in the year, he was throwing sliders in the low-90s. Relievers can move up more quickly than other positions, but a review of fast-moving relievers is a mix-mash of success and failure. I think it’ll be hard to keep Burdi, who will be 22 throughout the season, from Target Field.

 

Taylor Rogers (21%) – Rogers just turned 24 in December and learned that he had been invited to big league spring training. After a slow start in 2014 in New Britain, he pitched very well the rest of the season and was selected to pitch in the Arizona Fall League. The lefty throws 92-94 with a good slider and has the makeup to be good. He will be a solid big league starter at some point in his career.

 

Tyler Duffey (20%) – Like Rogers, Duffey was drafted out of college in 2012, just turned 24 and just learned that he too will be reporting to Twins big league spring training in February. He pitched well at three levels in 2014, from Ft. Myers to Rochester. Duffey was a part-time closer at Rice (with JT Chargois) but has been primarily used as a starter with the Twins. He touches mid-90s as a starter and gets a lot of grounders. Out of the bullpen, he can reach 97.

 

JO Berrios (19%) – Berrios has very good stuff and really took major strides in 2014. As a 19-year-old, he pitched at Ft. Myers, New Britain and finished the season with a start in Rochester. That said, he has just nine starts above A-ball, so we might need to slow our timeline expectations. That said, there is no questioning his work ethic and his makeup. He is going to pitch for a long time in the big leagues, and he’s going to be successful. Will he get his first opportunity in 2015?

 

Jake Reed (15%) – Reed was the fourth straight college pitcher drafted by the Twins in June. The fifth-round pick from Oregon threw 31 professional innings between Elizabethton (four games) and Cedar Rapids (16 games) and gave up just one earned run (0.29 ERA). He gave up just 11 hits, walked three and struck out 39 batters. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and continued to pitch well. He could move quickly.

 

Zack Jones (15%) – Jones missed most of 2014 because of an aneurysm near his right shoulder followed by blood clots in his leg. He returned at the very end of the season to Ft. Myers and closed out their championship run. He was back to hitting 97 mph by season’s end. He didn’t give up runs in the AFL, though his control was not good. His control will determine his big league opportunity and success. If he can throw strikes, he can be very good.

 

James Beresford (10%) – Doug Bernier, a similar player to Beresford, has received a call up each of the past two seasons. Beresford is a 26 year old who has been in the organization for a decade. Last year was his first full season in AAA and he played second base each day. He has a very good glove and if Brian Dozier were to require time on the disabled list, don’t be surprised if the Australian gets a call.

 

Others (5%) – There are, of course, several others who we could see promoted to the Twins in the right circumstances. Reasons could include injuries, trades or performance. Ryan O’Rourke is devastating against left-handed hitters and could be called upon if a LOOGY is needed. Danny Ortiz could be a fourth outfielder option if needed. Jason Adam and Adrian Salcedo are guys who could debut in 2014 if arms are needed. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Levi Michael get a September call-up.

 

 

Who else could make their MLB debut with the Twins in 2015? Are there players you think are more or less likely than the percentages that I gave them?

 

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[highlander]

I'm predicting 7 prospects will be called up in 2015. One of those will be from the other category. Although, I think four of them will make a solid contribution this year. Two of those will be in the bullpen. Meyers should be one of them. The only thing that will stop Sano is an injury. Please knock on wood that I didn't jinx him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like Meyer, but 99.99% is just asking for TJS in the spring... Do not anger the baseball gods.

[Guest]

 

As a Rule 5 pick, the Twins will need to keep Graham on the 40-man roster or offer him back to Atlanta.

I give Graham a 90%.  Twins actually have to keep Graham on 25-man roster or offer him back to Atlanta.  Twins have had success with Rule 5 relievers, as the pen can provide protection for developing young talent.  

[NoCryingInBaseball]

Seth, how many prospects came up in 2014?

[markos]

I like Meyer, but 99.99% is just asking for TJS in the spring... Do not anger the baseball gods.

I thought the same thing when I read that. Crossing my fingers for good health...

[goulik]

Thorough list but I would quibble with you on a few percentages:

Meyer: Injury history makes 99.999% a little high (knocking on wood as I type. Seriously, I literally knocked)

Graham: As a rule V, I see his % chance of being on our opening day roster as higher than this

Rosario: With the hot AFL showing and how he played last year I think 85% he will make team out of ST, 10% he's released after another drug suspension, 5% chance he plays a full minor league season without a call up

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, how many prospects came up in 2014?

 

The Three mentioned in the article are the only ones who made their MLB debut in 2014. (Santana, Vargas, Achter) 

[Seth Stohs]

Thorough list but I would quibble with you on a few percentages:

Meyer: Injury history makes 99.999% a little high (knocking on wood as I type. Seriously, I literally knocked)

Graham: As a rule V, I see his % chance of being on our opening day roster as higher than this

Rosario: With the hot AFL showing and how he played last year I think 85% he will make team out of ST, 10% he's released after another drug suspension, 5% chance he plays a full minor league season without a call up

 

For what Rosario was allegedly suspended for previously, being on the 40-man roster means he no longer can be tested for that. I think there is about 5% chance he makes the team out of spring training. Maybe a spring training injury could make it happen, but very little chance he makes the Opening Day roster. That said, I do think he comes up at some point this year. 

[tobi0040]

I would put the odds of Meyer breaking camp as a starter at more than 10%.  Not much though. 

 

Outside of Terry making one comment about a year ago about how the Braves and Cards brought up Medlen and/or Wacha, have the Twins made any comments about Meyer starting in the pen?

[Dantes929]

Though the Twins have a rep for slow promotion to the bigs I still think Meyer is the only real example of that in my memory.    I want to see him with the Twins but I would like to see May get the first shot for the rotation.    The great thing about the last few years is that guys getting promoted have deserved it.    Rosario's chance of making the club out of Spring Training probably took about a 50% hit with the signing of Hunter.   If Hunter and Rosario both do well I see Hunter traded at the deadline and Rosario promoted at that time. 

[shs_59]

97.837 % on Alex Meyer seems so right for me.

 

Although, I too, would put it slightly higher than 10% he makes opening day rotation.

~maybe 25%.

 

Something could easily happen to May (stuggles, injury) and Pelfrey should almost be slated for long-reliever , 7th  man in the bullpen.  That gives Meyer maybe 60% to crack rotation out of spring.

 

As for Tommy Milone, I see a FSL - to Rochester re-boot re-habilitation for him and his arm issues. At the very least he cannot start the season higher than Rochester the more i think about it.  Unless he is healthier than i anticipate and Does what he does in ST.

 

 

I think Buxton should be about 40% and Sano about 60%

 

There is soo much patience at this point, that needs to be used.

 

Rosario i agree 78% or 80 is pretty good.

 

Many of the others are great , Seth. and I like the optimism on Nick Burdi !!!

[markos]

The Three mentioned in the article are the only ones who made their MLB debut in 2014. (Santana, Vargas, Achter) 

I'm a little confused by this. Didn't Polanco and May make their debuts as well? Or are you not counting them because they didn't exceed their rookie eligibility? 

[HitInAPinch]

Seth, I really like your enthusiasm, but I have severe doubts that there will be any call-ups this year.  Unless, of course, alien beings transform themselves into the Twins minor league development team.

 

I'm wondering how Vargas will look this year after MLB scouting reports are more complete.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm a little confused by this. Didn't Polanco and May make their debuts as well? Or are you not counting them because they didn't exceed their rookie eligibility? 

 

Oh geez... yes, they did and I'm an idiot... Polanco's, I believe, was in June, and May's was in August... You are correct.

[Seth Stohs]

Regarding my saying that there may be about a 10% chance of Alex Meyer being in the rotation to start the season, here are my thoughts. I think that Milone and May will likely have about 45% chances each... I do think Pelfrey's going to the bullpen, though I guess I should have given him a couple of percent too. 

[dxpavelka]

The exciting thing for me is that hopefully we have reached a point where when we are promoting guys they are legitimage prospects who are ready to contribute at the big league level.  Santana and Vargys last year were a good start.  I get frustrated when we are moving up guys like Hermann and Fryer and Colabello and Bernier because I know they are not guys who are likely to have sustained success as big league starters for five to 10 years. 

[dxpavelka]

Seth, I really like your enthusiasm, but I have severe doubts that there will be any call-ups this year.  Unless, of course, alien beings transform themselves into the Twins minor league development team.

 

I'm wondering how Vargas will look this year after MLB scouting reports are more complete.

I would assume he would look the same as any other guy who starts out hot and cools down a little when  the book on him is developed.  Pretty much every player that reaches the big leagues goes through it.  Many survive.  I see no reason Vargys won't / can't.

[nicksaviking]

 

Everyone should notice that Seth listed the 99.999% for Meyer for 2014.  It might have been an oversight, but that number sounded pretty close to accurate this time last year too. 

Edited January 2, 2015 by nicksaviking

[AlwaysinModeration]

I think Rosario is high at 78. 77 is probably more accurate. Maybe 76.

 

I'd look at the AAA rotation, and count on at least 2-4 of the opening day AAA rotation getting MLB time. Assuming May or Milone gets #5, who will fill out that rotation? Meyer, May/Milone, Wheeler, O'Rourke(?), Duffey? Berrios?

 

If Berrios makes the AAA rotation, his chance at the MLB roster at some point should be way higher. I'd also guess Wheeler has way more than 15% chance.

[Thrylos]

pretty much agree with this, other than I would put Sano and Rosario at 100% for at least a cup of coffee in October, since they are on the 40-man. 

 

Unless Buxton repeats his 2013 performance, pending injuries to pretty much everyone who can play CF, I do not see him in the majors in 2015 and I am not convinced that he can hit AA pitching yet (based on what he did in the AFL and A+ the past season and a bit.)

 

I'd give Reed more than 15% as well.  At least 50%.  I think that we are all surprised with his first pro season and I cannot see how he starts lower than Chattanooga in 2015.  If he repeats his success there and a couple of Twins' relievers are faltering (and in a group that consists of Fien as your more senior RHP, this is not probably, it is likely) I just cannot see the Twins keeping him (and Burdi for that matter) in the minors.

 

Also a major omission (either way, because he was in the majors in 2014)  Jorge Polanco, who is at 100% and could be the Twins' starting SS by mid-season...

[biscuit]

Is Max Kepler really going to play in New Britain?  Is it possible he might go to Chattanooga instead?

[Seth Stohs]

Is Max Kepler really going to play in New Britain?  Is it possible he might go to Chattanooga instead?

 

Like I've probably had to say dozens of times already in the last 3-4 months, it's going to take me a while to say that one right for awhile!!

[DocBauer]

Meyer absolutely! But when is the question? I absolutely believe the Twins will give him a quality shot in ST. However, not only does he need to prove it and earn it, but Milone and May, a somewhat veteran MLer and a fellow prospect who got actual ML time last season, also have to prove they don't belong.

 

I'm still hoping and banking on May for the 5 spot. Betting one of Milone or Duensing are gone unless the team goes with 3 LHRP along with Thielbar. (again, Perkins is the closer, not just a LHer)

 

Sano and Rosario will be up at some point, even if it's September. Same with Polanco and Ortiz. Polanco is already on the 40 man, and only has Nunez ahead of him really. And I don't know that I can see Hicks and Schafer stopping Ortiz from coming up at some point.

 

Buxton would have to have something pretty bad happen to not be up at some point this seasons. 40 man roster considerations don't apply to him. September, or before September, if he shows enough he's up and getting some experience to get him ready for 2016.

 

I believe Burdi, Jones and Reed all are legitimate shots for some time in the second half. What stops them? No need to rush their clock if Oliveros, Achter, Pressley and Tonkin establish themselves.

 

So I tossed out 9 names. There are others who could easily get a cup of coffee at least. Is it so impractical to potentially see so many youngsters up for the first time. No. And not just because the Twins are still in a re-build mode, but because the cream of their milb crop is starting to rise to the top.

[DocBauer]

Oh geez... yes, they did and I'm an idiot... Polanco's, I believe, was in June, and May's was in August... You are correct.

Darnell?

[Thegrin]

I hope we only bring up rookies to open the season and in September.  If it happens that way we will be having a terrific season.  Starters are having Quality Starts. Relievers will be getting holds and saves.  The fielders will be fielding and the hitters will be hitting.  Most importantly, Molitor & Allen aren't screwing things up. 

[Dantes929]

I hope we only bring up rookies to open the season and in September.  If it happens that way we will be having a terrific season.  Starters are having Quality Starts. Relievers will be getting holds and saves.  The fielders will be fielding and the hitters will be hitting.  Most importantly, Molitor & Allen aren't screwing things up. 

Like Gardy did with Santana and Vargas?

[Dantes929]

97.837 % on Alex Meyer seems so right for me.

 

Although, I too, would put it slightly higher than 10% he makes opening day rotation.

~maybe 25%.

 

Something could easily happen to May (stuggles, injury) and Pelfrey should almost be slated for long-reliever , 7th  man in the bullpen.  That gives Meyer maybe 60% to crack rotation out of spring.

 

As for Tommy Milone, I see a FSL - to Rochester re-boot re-habilitation for him and his arm issues. At the very least he cannot start the season higher than Rochester the more i think about it.  Unless he is healthier than i anticipate and Does what he does in ST.

 

 

 !

I have asked this before and apologize if I missed the answer but Milone has the best career resume of all the starters including Hughes, Santana and Nolasco.  Does he actually have arm problems?  Why does he get no love?   What is the non contract rational argument for Nolasco over Milone?

[Paul Pleiss]

I dont understand why you're so low on Rosario. I think there's a better chance that we see Rosario than Sano. I may be an idiot (ask my wife), but I just don't see a way where we don't see Rosario by the seasons' end.

[big dog]

Darnell?

Logan Darnell and Yohan Pino as well.