Article: Which Twins Prospects Could Debut in 2015?

[jorgenswest]

Regarding my saying that there may be about a 10% chance of Alex Meyer being in the rotation to start the season, here are my thoughts. I think that Milone and May will likely have about 45% chances each... I do think Pelfrey's going to the bullpen, though I guess I should have given him a couple of percent too.

 

Does that mean you think that Milone and May are much more likely to show they are better pitchers in spring?

 

If Meyer is clearly one is of the best 12, should they still send him down?

[Seth Stohs]

Does that mean you think that Milone and May are much more likely to show they are better pitchers in spring? If Meyer is clearly one is of the best 12, should they still send him down?

 

Slight exaggeration, but if Hughes isn't one of the 12 best pitchers in spring, should they send him down?

 

Unfortunately, there are more factors into such things that just on-field performance. 

[Rosterman]

Unless the Twins are in a sell-off mood come September, pretty much NO prospects that aren't on the 40-man will see the light of day. At a slim chance, Burdi, Zack Jones, Cedar.... could swivel in. If he's tearing up AA ball and has a taste of Rochester, Buxton could get some at bats, too. But the Twins will holdoff on Berrios and Stewart, as they did Meyer. 

 

So, in 2015 - Meyer, Sano, Rosario. We might see Rohlfing or Beresford, but just for the short-term. We have too many relievers to break in someone out of the blue - Oliveros, Tonkin, Achter, Darnell, Thompson Pressly all will get some time supplementing the Milones, Pelfreys, Grahams etc.

[jorgenswest]

Slight exaggeration, but if Hughes isn't one of the 12 best pitchers in spring, should they send him down?

 

Unfortunately, there are more factors into such things that just on-field performance.

 

I think last year's performance can and should be used to assess best 12. Hughes, Santana and Perkins can go to spring training and work on being ready for opening day. The rest of the guys better bring something. Meyer ought to have the opportunity to beat out Stauffer or Pelfrey or Nolasco for a job. The Twins need to bring their best 12 north when on field performance means everything.

[Dantes929]

Generally I would say it is best when last year's performance is weighted  about 80-20 vs spring training performance.  This gives May an edge over Meyer.  Should give Milone and Meyer and edge over Nolasco but it won't.

[jorgenswest]

Generally I would say it is best when last year's performance is weighted  about 80-20 vs spring training performance.  This gives May an edge over Meyer.  Should give Milone and Meyer and edge over Nolasco but it won't.

I agree when it is a case of a pitcher throwing well in the majors the previous season and ends pitching well. Gibson might be included with Santana, Hughes and Perkins. If Nolasco and Pelfrey had the 80% anchoring them down, they wouldn't make it.

 

The Twins need to bring the next best 8 north. Nolasco, Pelfrey and the other veterans need to show they are among that group.

[nater79a]

I think Alex Wimmers is a possibility if you include him in the 'others' category. Maybe only a 5-10 percent chance, but he did quietly have a decent season out of the 'pen last year for New Britain. Obviously, the key for Wimmers is to stay healthy.  He would need to be added to the 40-man.

 

At least one of the following trio of pitchers will be re-called and and have a bigger impact than anyone anticipates: Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Jason Wheeler.

 

Burdi and Sano will have the best performance of all those called up for their debut this year.

[bird]

 

 

Everyone should notice that Seth listed the 99.999% for Meyer for 2014.  It might have been an oversight, but that number sounded pretty close to accurate this time last year too. 

 

It's possible he could get injured again, but he won't be subject to a pitch limit like he was last year.

[Mike Sixel]

I think the following will be up:

 

Meyer, Sano, Rosario

 

I think the following should be up, but might not for some reason I don't understand:

Burdi

Other RP whose names I'm not thinking of right now while I'm working

 

I think the following will get looks:

Polanco again

Other RP late in the year

Two random starting pitchers, not to include Berrios

 

I think the following have a good shot in September:

Berrios

Lots of RP that weren't already called up

 

I don't think Buxton comes up, unless one of the following happens:

1. He is a beast out of the gate, which I doubt

2. They are in the playoff hunt, except CF is an abomination and he's doing ok or better in AA

3. Tickets sales are awful, and they call him up in August or September to try to make some money

[James]

I think the following will be up:

 

Meyer, Sano, Rosario

 

I think the following should be up, but might not for some reason I don't understand:

Burdi

Other RP whose names I'm not thinking of right now while I'm working

 

I think the following will get looks:

Polanco again

Other RP late in the year

Two random starting pitchers, not to include Berrios

 

I think the following have a good shot in September:

Berrios

Lots of RP that weren't already called up

 

I don't think Buxton comes up, unless one of the following happens:

1. He is a beast out of the gate, which I doubt

2. They are in the playoff hunt, except CF is an abomination and he's doing ok or better in AA

3. Tickets sales are awful, and they call him up in August or September to try to make some money

I think you're pretty much on point with what I am expecting.  I don't think I could have said it better myself.

 

I don't think that they'll bring up Buxton just for ticket sales though.  I think they know ticket sales are going to be bad unless they win games.  I don't think they would mess with Buxton's development for a improved ticket sales for a few games.  I think Sano will be drawing a big enough crowd for the Twins not to worry about this anyway.  

[jay]

Good stuff, Seth.

 

I see Buxton and Berrios with a little better odds than what you've mentioned here.  The Twins haven't been afraid to aggressively promote top-end talent that performs.

 

Buxton - CF is awfully thin (again).  If Danny Santana is really a SS now, the odds of Hicks and Schafer being bad enough that they want to call up Buxton look pretty good.  Also, if he'd be ready enough to come up in May 2015, I think there's a good chance he gets a September look.  The 40th man on the 40 man roster in September isn't worth holding him back if he's ready and the options won't matter.  I think Buxton is closer to 75%.

 

Berrios - This kid is determined.  He has dominated.  He could get a call as early as mid-season.  Present day, you've got Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, May, Meyer and Milone clearly in front of him.  Pelfrey, Stauffer and Darnell are some other potential rotation filler he could easily jump this year.  Teams end up using a LOT of starters across a full season (12 last year, average of 10.6 since 2010).  If he's dominating again, I see at least a September start or two as very possible with the same rationale on the 40th man.  I think Berrios is closer to 60%.

[tobi0040]

Good stuff, Seth.

 

I see Buxton and Berrios with a little better odds than what you've mentioned here.  The Twins haven't been afraid to aggressively promote top-end talent that performs.

 

Buxton - CF is awfully thin (again).  If Danny Santana is really a SS now, the odds of Hicks and Schafer being bad enough that they want to call up Buxton look pretty good.  Also, if he'd be ready enough to come up in May 2015, I think there's a good chance he gets a September look.  The 40th man on the 40 man roster in September isn't worth holding him back if he's ready and the options won't matter.  I think Buxton is closer to 75%.

 

Berrios - This kid is determined.  He has dominated.  He could get a call as early as mid-season.  Present day, you've got Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, May, Meyer and Milone clearly in front of him.  Pelfrey, Stauffer and Darnell are some other potential rotation filler he could easily jump this year.  Teams end up using a LOT of starters across a full season (12 last year, average of 10.6 since 2010).  If he's dominating again, I see at least a September start or two as very possible with the same rationale on the 40th man.  I think Berrios is closer to 60%.

 

The isssue with Berrios for me is they won't have him up here and his clock starting unless he sticks.  So a spot start or something maybe if he is lights out and the need arises.  I suppose after the deadline if a spot is open, then maybe.