Pulling my hair out debating Escobar vs Santana

[DocBauer]

Anyone else having this problem?

 

I know there's been a lot of debate concerning these two at different points in different threads. And I've thrown in my 2 cents here and there as well. But the more I play amateur Manager and GM, it seems the more frustrated and confused I become.

 

Santana had a surprising, unique, and very special season. When you look at athletic talent, potential, milb production, scouting reports and rankings, and especially, just what he did this season, kept doing, kept doing, and kept doing, I don't think you can claim SSS. Could the BA regress? Yes. But could the OB and SB's improve? Absolutely. Might even see a slight rise in power as he clearly generates more power than might initially be expected. And I don't think you can debate or doubt the hands, arm and range at SS if he can learn and polish.

 

But while I think Escobar, NOW FREE, could be a valuable and potentially excellent utility player, especially if allowed to play on a pretty regular basis, what has he done to eliminate his hold on the SS position? We're not talking an elite defensive player, and not as good as the potential of Santana, but a very solid SS. And a solid bat who ranked in the upper half of the league in regard to doubles, BA and OPS. He's given the Twins the best overall play offensively and defensively at SS since Guzman teased several years ago. Were it not for the talent, potential and season of Santana, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. We'd simply be thrilled in what we found in Escobar, growing and learning, and finally getting his shot.

 

And remember, Escobar is not some career reserve who finally got a chance to play a whole seasons. (Mostly) He's a young player, promoted too early by the ChiSox for a bench role before being traded to the Twins for a similar role, bouncing up and down the ladder. He had a highly productive winter ball, got his shot, and ran with it. Is his offense sustainable? I don't know fir sure. But like Santana, he proved consistent overall in 2014. And similar to Santana, the ball seems to jump off his bat pretty well when making contact, indicating his pop may not be an illusion.

 

I do think this frustration is a good problem to have at the end of the day. But ultimately, what is best? Do you roll with Santana at CF until Buxton is ready, knowing he could at least provide a nice backup SS option? And then, he might be best in LF as a strong-armed and range-y player and offensive catalyst. Or is the team simply better with Santana at SS, possible backup CF, with Escobar as a quality and versatile utility player leaving LF open?

 

I keep tearing my hair out over this one. Are you with me on this one?

[GoGonzoJournal]

Nope. Escobar at short. Santana in center. Santana was average defensively in center, below average at short. Escobar was average at short, below average in left.

[stringer bell]

In the absence of a moderator, I'll provide a welcome to you "The Bunk".  I don't know for sure what the moniker stands for, but if it is a reference to my favorite television show, you're doubly welcome here.

 

On to the topic:  Doc has ably pointed out the problem or more aptly, the situation.  Do we go with the lower upside Escobar or the raw, but obviously talented Santana?  Regardless, both are assets to the team.  I guess I think Escobar is one of the nine best players so he should be starting, even if that means that Santana is in center field.

 

My projection is this:  both guys won't hit for as high an average as they did in 2014.  I see Santana as a particularly weaker hitter RH than his numbers came out this year--look at the strikeouts--but overall he will continue to be a plus offensive player.  With more experience, I see Santana drawing more walks and keeping his OBP acceptable.  I continue to want to be shown that Danny can handle shortstop.  I attended spring training last year.  While I loved what I saw of Santana's hitting and speed, he was a train wreck at short by every measure:  routine plays, fundamentals, throwing, catching, positioning.  In the regular season, he didn't look nearly as raw or overwhelmed, but it was a SSS.

 

If he gets regular at-bats, I see Escobar regressing a bit in batting average, more than a little in the extra-base categories.  Escobar is a solid bottom-of-the-order guy, I think, with a fairly good average and some extra base power.  Defensively, he turns outs into outs, which 30 out of 30 managers appreciate (and probably most pitchers).  He has good hands and his arm is strong and true.  The thing is that after Escobar makes a play you seldom say "what a play!" or "oh my!".  There isn't much spectacular about Eddie E. 

 

Perhaps it is fitting (or perhaps not) but where these two guys end up might depend on the play of others.  If no one can adequately take over center field, the Twins might be forced to go with Santana in the central garden.  I would expect his CF defense to continue to dramatically improve with more reps there. 

[pierre75275]

I do not know if this is anything for concern. These kinds of things so often work themselves out for spring training. Injuries happen. Trades happen. I would be stunned if the Twins went into 2015 without signing an outfielder or trading for one. I think next year we see Santana getting a lot of shortstop with EE but EE playing more 3B and 2b then this year. I would not be surprised if Arcia or EE or Santana were all on the trade block in order to get a centerfielder with some speed. Like Peter B from the cardinals or that Revere guy from the phillies, or somebodyin that mold. Regardless, I think Santana gets more SS time next year and EE gets less, and the team is better.

[Platoon]

Parker has a column about the Twins use of metrics. In the middle of the column are stats on how the opponents ground ball BA's have dramatically increased this past year. For all GB, .235 in 2013. .258 this year. And up the middle, .500, the highest in the majors. Maybe that will help solve the debate.

[Badsmerf]

Is this really a debate? Despite a solid season by Escobar, he is what he is. Santana is a bad cf. The twins need to stop sending infielders to the of. The trend is getting laughable. The question should not be Escobar vs Santana; rather, Escobar at ss Santana at cf vs Santana at ss player x (span? Hicks? Melky? Schaffer? ) at cf. In my opinion, having a real cf and a ss with range will make a big difference.

 

If anyone is in love with Escobar at ss tell me this, would you rather trade him or Santana? Who is more likely to sustain our improve? The answer is easy for me.

[iTwins]

No more infielders in the outfield. Santana needs to play everday - at a position suited to his skills - and that's SS.

 

Escobar is the quality utility player contending teams dream about. He can play all over the infield and carries a capable bat. I'd use Escobar nearly everyday - but at a revolving position (giving Plouffe a day off, before filling in for Santana or Dozier, for example).

 

It's a lovely problem to have. Too much talent and no place to play them. More discussion like this are welcome!

[Linus]

This is easy.  SS is such an important position that you always shoot for the moon athletically.  The Twins should find a stop gap CF and Santana should play short.  Esco can get on the field plenty, playing a variety of positions, etc.

[Otto von Ballpark]

[Escobar] had a highly productive winter ball, got his shot, and ran with it.

I've seen this stated here before (and I think I've debunked it before), but here goes again: Escobar did not hit all that well in the winter leagues last year (2013).  He ranked 30th out of 35 qualified batters in his league in OPS, sandwiched between former Twins greats Luis Maza and Alex Romero.  In both AVG and OBP, he was second to last, behind even Oswaldo Arcia.

 

He did improve his power output over his previous significant winter league season (2011) -- 3 more doubles and 3 more HR in similar AB, although also almost twice as many strikeouts, which seems to reinforce what we saw briefly at Rochester in 2013 and finally in Minnesota (in the form of doubles and strikeouts) in 2014.

 

To stay a viable starter, he will have to maintain that power, and show/maintain some defensive chops (On a per-150 game rate, Fangraphs has him +4 runs at short in 2014, B-Ref has him -9).  Even then, with some BABIP fluctuation, he may only be a 85-95 OPS+ hitter with an OBP struggling to crack .300.

 

I think I still pursue an OF addition this winter, with Santana back to the OF and Escobar starting at SS as the fallback option.

[James]

These are the problems that I love to have.

 

I think you have to go with Santana at SS.  I have to preface this with the fact that I love Escobar.  I love him as a utility man though.  I know Santana isn't the best at SS yet.  But he's young, and he's not going to get any better at SS by playing in CF.  If you think Santana is your SS of the future, the answer to this problem is easy... play Santana at short.  Keep Escobar as your utility infielder.

[Mike Sixel]

Not pulling my hair out over any sports stuff......

 

I'd put Santana at SS, and have Escobar sub in for him and Plouff occasionally. But I'd keep them both at this point.

 

Can Esco sub at 2B at all? 

[Riverbrian]

My hair is not being pulled at all. It's not combed very well but I'm not pulling it out over this.

 

I love it.

 

If I was the Manager... (Still waiting for the phone call from TR that's sure to come)...

 

If I was the manager... I'm getting both in the lineup as much as possible with the current roster.

 

Santana will play CF and SS. Escobar will play all infield positions... Playing 3B when Plouffe plays some OF or needs a seat on the bench.

 

Schafer is my backup OF and will play CF when Santana plays SS unless another CF is brought in.

 

I'm asking TR for a trade or FA acquisition of a LF who can also man CF and whoever this player is... He's my only request outside of Pitching.

 

Escobar and Santana can co-exist on this roster... Get playing time and compete for playing time. We only get into trouble when you lock in and say Santana is only a CF and Escobar is only a SS.

 

It's a good problem... A problem all teams should strive for.

 

It will only get better when Hicks arrives to stay. Buxton... Sano!!!

 

Lineup creativity... The Twins can do this right now!!!

[James]

Not pulling my hair out over any sports stuff......

I'm not pulling my hair out either.  It seems to have no problem falling out of my head all by its own.  I don't need to help it out by pulling it out.

[Shane Wahl]

Santana at short. End of story.

[Linus]

Not pulling my hair out over any sports stuff......

 

I'd put Santana at SS, and have Escobar sub in for him and Plouff occasionally. But I'd keep them both at this point.

 

Can Esco sub at 2B at all? 

Yes, I believe I remember hearing Gardy say he thought 2nd was his best position.

I agree with Santana at short and Esco in the utility role - he could still play nearly full time all over the diamond giving guys a day off and filling in during injuries.

[Craig Arko]

<--- My hair's doing just fine. I'd like to see Santana get a chance at full time short. If that means Hicks in CF, I'm okay with that.

[stringer bell]

I don't remember any Gardy comment about Esco at second. He played sparingly there because of Dozier, but from what I've seen, he is not great on the pivot and the strong arm is somewhat wasted at second. That said, I think he would be okay to fill in for a Dozier injury or to give him an occasional day off. Of course, I'm counting on my long shot to come in. That means the Twins can use Rosario at second to fill in!

[Platoon]

My hair is not being pulled at all. It's not combed very well but I'm not pulling it out over this.

I love it.

If I was the Manager... (Still waiting for the phone call from TR that's sure to come)...

If I was the manager... I'm getting both in the lineup as much as possible with the current roster.

Santana will play CF and SS. Escobar will play all infield positions... Playing 3B when Plouffe plays some OF or needs a seat on the bench.

Schafer is my backup OF and will play CF when Santana plays SS unless another CF is brought in.

I'm asking TR for a trade or FA acquisition of a LF who can also man CF and whoever this player is... He's my only request outside of Pitching. Som

Escobar and Santana can co-exist on this roster... Get playing time and compete for playing time. We only get into trouble when you lock in and say Santana is only a CF and Escobar is only a SS.

It's a good problem... A problem all teams should strive for.

It will only get better when Hicks arrives to stay. Buxton... Sano!!!

Lineup creativity... The Twins can do this right now!!!

I too think hicks will make it. He is the wild card here. If he gets his head ............. Well you know what I mean! He is your LF/CF guy. He has some tools, but doesn't or won't use them. That can change. What you can't do is try to use tools you don't have. Who knows, he could be one of those guys that benefits from a new manager?

[Platoon]

My hair is not being pulled at all. It's not combed very well but I'm not pulling it out over this.

I love it.

If I was the Manager... (Still waiting for the phone call from TR that's sure to come)...

If I was the manager... I'm getting both in the lineup as much as possible with the current roster.

Santana will play CF and SS. Escobar will play all infield positions... Playing 3B when Plouffe plays some OF or needs a seat on the bench.

Schafer is my backup OF and will play CF when Santana plays SS unless another CF is brought in.

I'm asking TR for a trade or FA acquisition of a LF who can also man CF and whoever this player is... He's my only request outside of Pitching.

Escobar and Santana can co-exist on this roster... Get playing time and compete for playing time. We only get into trouble when you lock in and say Santana is only a CF and Escobar is only a SS.

It's a good problem... A problem all teams should strive for.

It will only get better when Hicks arrives to stay. Buxton... Sano!!!

Lineup creativity... The Twins can do this right now!!!

BTW I talked to TR today. He wondered why you didn't show up for your interview yesterday?

[freshinthehouse]

Santana at SS, Escobar at Util

[Paul Pleiss]

For me, I think the longer SanDana stays away from SS... the less likely it is that he ever becomes an everyday SS. So I think that the best thing for SanDana's development is to play him at SS... however, I'm not sure that's the best move for the Twins franchise.

Santana has a strong arm, and seems to have fairly good foot work, but from the scouting reports I've read, the questions about his defense concern his consistency, and the speed of his hands, both of which may limit him from becoming an above average defender. I think there's also some concern about his "quick-twitch" reactions, which may also limit him from ever becoming GREAT defensively. That being said, he can likely be an average defender, and while I spent all season waiting for his offensive numbers to come down to earth, i think he can provide plus offensive value from the SS position.

 

Back to what's best for the team. Right now the team is still waiting for Aaron Hicks to take control of the CF job, and if the Twins don't bring someone in, I think the best bet is to play both SanDana and Escobar in the lineup, and the construction that makes the most sense for that is Santana in CF and Escobar at SS. Toss Aaron Hicks out there in a corner spot if the Twins dont bring in a lumbering big stick corner OF type this off-season.

 

I'm not sure Danny Santana was ever the long term answer at SS, and losing development time there this season and possibly next could likely keep him from ever becoming the answer there.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, this offseason will be a huge disappointment to me if we don't have a legitimate CF on the roster by spring training.  As bad as the pitching has been, it'd be my top priority this offseason. 

 

Santana goes where he belongs long-term and you fix two problems with one move.

[Paul Pleiss]

Yeah, this offseason will be a huge disappointment to me if we don't have a legitimate CF on the roster by spring training.  As bad as the pitching has been, it'd be my top priority this offseason. 

 

Santana goes where he belongs long-term and you fix two problems with one move.

 

Goes where he belongs? He may very well become an everyday utility man on a good Twins team in a couple seasons. I think Escobar has played better than being demoted to utility guy for 2015. And this team is better with both Santana and Escobar in the lineup. And if that means playing Sandana out of position in CF, then you do that to keep both bats in the lineup.

 

Maybe Danny needs some time at AAA to work on SS, but his bat, if it's anywhere close to his 2014 numbes (and i'm expecting serious regression), but his bat will prevent him from going down to AAA, which means he's going to have to put in a lot of work between games to stay sharp at SS with how much CF he's going to play next season.

[TheLeviathan]

Goes where he belongs? He may very well become an everyday utility man on a good Twins team in a couple seasons. I think Escobar has played better than being demoted to utility guy for 2015. And this team is better with both Santana and Escobar in the lineup. And if that means playing Sandana out of position in CF, then you do that to keep both bats in the lineup.

 

Maybe Danny needs some time at AAA to work on SS, but his bat, if it's anywhere close to his 2014 numbes (and i'm expecting serious regression), but his bat will prevent him from going down to AAA, which means he's going to have to put in a lot of work between games to stay sharp at SS with how much CF he's going to play next season.

 

If Danny needs work at SS - he should get it with the Twins.  Escobar is a GLARING regression candidate that I would hate to plan on as a starter.  He'll get plenty of playing time even as a roving fill-in player and subbing for injuries.  

 

He's not the kind of player you move a good young player to make room for.

[Kelly Vance]

Funny how a couple years ago folks were complaining that the Twins did not have any decent shortstops after trading Hardy. 

 

Open competition in a three way plan between Santana, Escobar and Hicks.  If Santana plays well at SS, meaning better than EE, and Hicks looks better in CF than EE at SS, then you have EE as a utility. If Hicks disappoints and we do not make a move for another OF player, than maybe, and I mean maybe, Danny stays in CF. But if Danny stays in CF, then I think you make the move permanent. It is not fair to him to jerk him around by calling him the SS of the future, then not playing him there with Gordon and Rosario and others looking to move up. Esobar might be only a long term stop gap.

 

If Santana is a long term CF, fine, then Bux moves to RF or LF when he comes up. If Santana is faster maybe he stays in CF. Sano maybe takes LF.  I could see an OF of Sano, Santana and Buxton. Hicks or Shafe as the 4th OFer. Would that mean  Arcia gets traded for a pitcher? I could live wih that. Sano has to be as good in LF as Arcia is in RF.  

 

I think the situation remains fluid through Spring Training. But like many others, I like Escobar as a super utility IF guy.

 

And I think Vargas and Santana prove that maybe Terry Ryan is a little too conservative with the young guys. KC, a better team than the Twins, brought up Finnegan in his rookie year. He pitched in the College World Series and spent very little time in the low minors. That seems to me to be at least high A or AA level experience.  I would bring up our Louisville Jet and his 100 mph fastball to be a set up man and Meyer and Berrios to compete for a rotation spot. Maybe give Reed a long look too. A little turnover in the bullpen is a good thing sometimes.And I obviously think Sano and Buxton are ready to come up soon.

 

I really never liked the years in grade type roster hoarding. The Twins give  a lot of lip service to "loyalty" but that door swings both ways. Keeping control is not fair to the players that deserve a promotion based on their effort and play. If they are ready, they deserve to come up. as soon as they show it.  Not promoting them to keep one more year of control is a miserly attitude. I think you should be generous with your players and maybe they won't need to look for greener pastures elsewhere.  

 

It is time to let the kids play. 

[curt1965]

2015 might be a transitional year for the Twins. Santana needs to play 130+ games at SS to make a fair determination if he is the guy or not. I believe he will be. Likewise with Hicks- he plays a great CF, and if he could win that job, it sets up perfectly. Sano in left, Hicks in center, Arcia in right. Let them play- see what happens. When Buxton is ready, maybe September next year, I'm willing to bet the problem will have worked itself out. Escobar can play 4 games a week as a super sub.

[DuluthFan]

Here's a thought. What if Santana's surprise MLB offensive production was because he was NOT playing shortstop. Center field is an easier position to play compared to shortstop. What if his improved performance at the plate was because he didn't have the stress of playing a more difficult position affecting his concentration at the plate. What if by moving him back to shortstop full time, he regresses at the plate. Most players don't improve at the plate that much after being called up from the minors. Most players show decreased numbers at the plate compared to their AAA numbers. It is entirely possible he could regress to numbers below his AAA numbers if he is moved back to shortstop. His defensive ability at short could be exposed as well.

 

It is not certain that Santana is an improvement defensively at shortstop over Escobar. He may one day reach that level, but he is not there yet and may never be.

[Thrylos]

The answer is pretty easy for me too, but I have seen Santana play shortstop for 4-5 years now...

 

Escobar should be the Twins starting shortstop.  He is a better fielder than Santana and, other than second base, he is average or below average fielder.  Gardenhire liked to play him at this worst IF defensive position (third.)  Santana can handle the middle IF positions ok plus handle the OF ok.  Despite what you saw this half season, Escobar is a better hitter anyways.

 

It is kind of a 2015 only argument in my mind, because starting 2016, if not 2015, Polanco better be the Twins starting SS...

[stringer bell]

Going into the spring, the Twins can really go either way.  Santana at short and someone else in center, or Escobar at short and Santana in center.  It doesn't really matter as long as they keep their options open.  I personally can't see Hicks or Schafer as a regular center fielder (honestly I'd be more comfortable with Schafer), but if someone is available to play center, then Santana gets shortstop. 

 

What should not happen again is having no options.  Unfortunately, the only option I see right now is for Santana to be the Twins center fielder until Buxton comes to town. 

[DocBauer]

I guess I just have a problem removing Escobar, a highly productive player, the kind of player we've been longing for for more than a few seasons now. But ultimately, while there may still be some questions and growth mistakes along the way, Santana does offer the most overall potential at the position, offensively and defensively.

 

I look at someone like Escobar from the Royals, and while I wouldn't dare to compare or expect similar play, I have to wonder if Santana couldn't at least come close defensively, and be better offensively. We were spoiled by Gagne, teased by Guzman, and have been searching for a strong everyday player since. I hate to dismiss what Escobar did and meant to the team, but Santana is just so tantalizing as an everyday option.