GoGonzoJournal

We talk about the Twins winning the most winnable division in the history of Major League Baseball, how sexy Royce Lewis is, and how smart Brian Flores is. Also, the NBA liked the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup so much they copied it, and Foul Players of the Week returns for obvious reasons. Listen here or on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Watch here. Brian Flores Looks Like a Genius in Preseason Loss to Seahawks Linebacker Ivan Pace, Jr.’s stock is rising, according to Alec Lewis of The Athletic Andrew Booth, Jr. got beat for a touchdown, but he’s 22 Safety Theo Jackson was on the field for more plays than any other Viking Twins Take Two from Philly, a Bonafide Playoff Team Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Jordan Luplow, Joey Gallo, Ryan Jeffers, and Donovan Solano have all posted an OPS over .800 in August Royce Lewis is back and sexy as ever Pablo Lopez has a 0.47 ERA in three August wins, Kenta Maeda has a 1.50 ERA over 12 innings, and Sonny Gray has posted a 1.89 ERA over 19 innings Even Emilio Pagan has a 2.08 ERA in 4.1 August innings Louie Varland needs to get Dallas Keuchal’s innings Hasn’t allowed a run and has a 0.92 WHIP in two wins spanning 13 innings this August Foul Players of the Week Bronze medalist: The King of Television and Ring of Honor Television Champion, Samoa Joe, came out of the crowd to put CM Punk to sleep during his match with FTR against House of Black for the AEW Trios Championships. Punk proceeded to talk **** about Hangman Adam Page after the show, against whom I saw him win the AEW Heavyweight Championship despite wrestling like ****. He has since apologized, but the Anxious Millennial Cowboy is going to buckshot lariat his ass back to the Pepsi generation. Silver medalist: The family of Michael Oher, as depicted by white folks like Sandra Bullock and others in the movie, The Blind Side, blindsided Oher by allegedly tricking him into signing over control of his name, image, and likeness, and he was never paid for the movie about his life story. He says they lied about adopting him and tricked him into agreeing to a conservatorship. Gold medalist: Major League Baseball is investigating Wander Franco for allegedly grooming a 14-year-old girl. He was given the day off on his giveaway day. The giveaway: a snapback cap for children 14 and under. Talking Movies with Mike Oppenheimer was a yawnfest, Barbie was fun, but TMNT: Mutant Mayhem was the best movie I saw this week

Listen to the Mar. 5 Minnesota Foul Play-by-play podcast here. We start talking Twins at 11:40. Spring Twinkies Look Mostly Good, a Little Damaged, Pagan Ugly, but Never Expired The Good Joey Gallo was 3-for-3 on Sunday (with a long ball). He’s hitting line-drives. Max Kepler has also been hitting line-drives, and depth piece Elliot Soto has been on fire. Correa looks like Correa (he had a nice line-drive to right field, Sunday) Duran was making 101 MPH look easy today (1 walk, 1 strikeout in one inning of work) Kyle Farmer is playing like a stud (great off season addition) The Brook’s Lee boner is still rock hard. “Man, that kid is a stud,” shortstop Carlos Correa said. “I really, really, really like this kid. I’m very, very high on him. Don’t be surprised if we see him up this year.” 19-year-old Jose Salas (who the Twins got in the Luis Arreaz trade) is fun to watch…cherry on top of that deal. He’s got a helluva hit tool. The Bad Gilberto Celistino (6-8 weeks, thumb), Jose Miranda (shoulder), Nick Gordon (high ankle sprain) all hurt Miranda will not play in the World Baseball Classic because of shoulder concern Miranda homered twice on Sunday, so the shoulder isn’t effecting his swing The Future Brooks Lee, SS (MLB No. 31) Royce Lewis, SS (MLB No. 45) Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF (MLB No. 88) Edouard Julien, 2B (has had a great Spring Training so far) Connor Prielipp, LHP The Ugly Emilio Pagan continues to leave the taste of throw-up in your mouth The WBC Injects MLB Spring Training with Steroids Twins playing in the WBC make up much of the Puerto Rican team, which is always good Remaining Twins’ Spring Training players will play the WBC favorites from the Dominican Republic on Thursday, March 9 at noon CST Probably the most competitive game they’ll have all Spring Other players to watch: Yoenis Céspedes is playing for international powerhouse Cuba (he’s 37 and hit the longest homer in the dinger derby at Target Field in 2014), as are White Sox Luis Robert and Yoán Moncada Shohei Ohtani (Japan) could end up pitching to Mike Trout (USA)

Theoretically, he'd have an impact in more games and could pitch just as many innings out of the bullpen as as a starter. Also, those outs would be more valuable than some of those against hitters most professional bullpen arms could get out.

With the Tampa Bay Rays set to make the 2019 MLB Playoffs and turn the 115-year-old approach to playoff rotations on its head, it’s well past time for questioning the effectiveness of the traditional approach to postseason pitching. But it’s the Minnesota Twins and José Berríos who present the most interesting postseason pitching situation. This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com. The Tried and Not-so-true Approach I get it. Put your best pitcher out there in Game 1 of a playoff series to give him the best chance to pitch in as many games of the series as possible. But is that really the best way to go? We’ve seen Madison Bumgarner win three World Series games, but not every team has a Madison Bumgarner. In fact, most MLB teams don’t have a Madison Bumgarner. Most MLB teams’ best pitcher isn’t their best pitcher against every MLB team. The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t even the best example of a playoff team without a bonafide number one starting pitcher, or ace. They have 2018 Cy Young Award-winner Blake Snell, who’s struggled in 2019, especially against the Yankees recently, but Brent Honeywell, Jr. might be even better someday. The Rays will still probably run an opener out there at some point if they make the postseason, but they shouldn’t feel the need to start their best pitcher in their first playoff game. The Minnesota Twins shouldn’t either. Their ace is undoubtedly José Berríos, but even he’s a question mark, especially when it comes to throwing a new baseball with seams harder to grip in cold, October weather. Berríos himself has proven to struggle late in the season, with his career strikeout-to-walk ratio plummeting from 5.13 in March/April to 1.88 in September/October. That could be a mute point if Berríos continues to mow down batters into September, but that isn’t evidence that the Twins’ best shot to win the American League Division Series is to start Berrios in Game 1—or at all for that matter. If the American League standings remain unchanged and the Twins win the pennant, they’d play their first postseason game at cavernous Target Field. It’s 29th in runs allowed and 28th in home runs allowed. That’s crazy considering the Twins are leading MLB in home runs with 140 through 73 games. Meanwhile, Boston’s Fenway Park is 12th in allowing runs and 25th when it comes to allowing home runs. Yankee Stadium is 28th and 22nd, respectively, and Minute Maid Park in Houston is 11th and 11th, respectively. Basically, regardless of whom Minnesota faces in the American League postseason, its coaching staff will want to consider the ballpark factors and opponents’ past success against its starters. If they do, they’ll find José Berríos shouldn’t necessarily start Game 1 of the ALDS or any playoff series. Play Aces like a Poker Hand…Slow Baseball’s been going about postseason pitching all wrong because instead of treating aces like aces in the hole, they’ve been playing them as if they’re bluffing—like they’re over-representing their hand as if they’re already beaten. And that could just be scared managers succumbing to the uncanny and inexplicable commitment to tired traditions in baseball. After completing a 162-game schedule providing plenty of data like ballpark and head-to-head splits repeatedly indicating that any pitcher or group of pitchers can win any game when put in a proper position to succeed given the circumstances, why is all that ignored as soon as the postseason begins? Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Just for fun, let’s assume the Twins face the Rays in the ALDS, a best-of-five series. At most, Berríos would be able to pitch two games, but should he, and if so, which games should he pitch? Judging from a simple analysis of pitching splits over a career, Odorizzi would be the Twins’ best option to start Game 1 of the ALDS against Tampa Bay at Target Field and Game 4 at Tropicana Field. Odorizzi has allowed the lowest OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) to Tampa Bay’s hitters, and is second to only Berríos in OPS allowed at Target Field. Odorizzi also has the lowest OPS allowed at Tropicana Field—a measly .655—while Berríos is considerably better at Target Field (.645 OPS allowed at home) than he is at Tropicana Field (.812 OPS allowed). Michael Pineda’s .796 OPS allowed in Tampa Bay would be a perfect fit in Game 3 at The Trop, with Berríos taking the hill in Game 5, if necessary. Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Berríos doesn’t makes sense as an ALDS Game 1 starter against Boston either, even though he’s allowed an OPS of just .625 when facing the Red Sox and proved he can get them out on Monday, going eight innings and surrendering just five hits and one earned run. His .645 OPS allowed at Target Field is also a team-best, which is why he should only be pitching at Target Field, but not necessarily in Game 1. Kyle Gibson is better at Fenway Park (.450 OPS allowed) than he is at Target Field (.757 OPS allowed). In fact, he’s the Twins’ best option to pitch Game 3 of any American League playoff series in which Minnesota has home field advantage and doesn’t include the Rays. His .593 OPS allowed in Houston is lowest on the team, as is his .647 OPS allowed in Yankee Stadium. But who should the Twins start in Game 1 against Boston? Answer: Martín Pérez. Pérez’s .738 OPS allowed at Target Field is second-best on the team, and his .548 OPS allowed to Red Sox hitters is best on the team and 77 points lower than Berríos’. He gives the Twins the best chance to beat Boston in Game 1, and setting Berríos up to pitch Game 4 at Fenway Park (.871 OPS allowed at Boston) instead of Game 5 at Target Field (.645 OPS allowed) is setting him up for failure. Twins vs. New York Yankees To finally end the Twins’ playoff curse against the Yankees, it’ll take Michael Pineda pitching Game 1 at Target Field. His .689 OPS allowed against the Yankees is second only to Jake Odorizzi’s, who should only pitch in Minnesota because his .684 OPS allowed at Target Field is much better than him working the upper part of the strike zone with his sneaky fastball in the little league ballpark that is Yankee Stadium against the biggest hitters in baseball. Pitching Game 2 would line Odorizzi up to pitch Game 5, at home, if necessary. Pineda pitching Game 1 lines him up to start Game 4 in familiar Yankee Stadium, where he has the second-best OPS allowed amongst Twins starting pitchers. Kyle Gibson would pitch Game 3, and Berríos could be used out of the bullpen in high-leverage situations against lefties. That’s right. José Berríos is a bullpen arm against the Yankees—and the Astros. Twins vs. Houston Astros Martín Pérez is the perfect pick for the Twins to start Games 1 and 4 in an ALDS against the Astros. His .711 OPS allowed against Houston is second only to Odorizzi’s, and his .655 OPS allowed at Minute Maid Park is also second to only Kyle Gibson’s .593 OPS allowed in Houston. Games 2 and 5 should go to Odorizzi, where his .684 OPS allowed at home will pair well with his team-best .689 OPS allowed to Houston’s hitters. Gibson should get Game 3. Bad Arguments Against People will incorrectly argue that Martín Pérez beating Justin Verlander is less likely than Berríos doing so. But it was Jake Odorizzi getting the shutout win over Verlander, pitching seven innings on April 29. And it was Pérez getting a win over Houston, pitching eight innings of four-hit, shutout baseball on May 1. Berríos backed him up with a win the next day, pitching seven innings and allowing two earned runs on seven hits. People will incorrectly argue that not pitching Berríos as a starter in potential ALDSs against Houston and New York would negatively affect his ability if asked to start in the ALCS. But this, like any other, and especially in the randomness of the postseason, is a sport you approach one game at a time. You can’t worry about the ALCS until you get there. Also, it’s more likely, given the season thus far, that Minnesota meet either Houston or New York in the ALCS. Speaking of, how does this all look in a seven-game series? ALCS: Twins vs. Yankees In a seven-game series against the Yankees, do everything the same. Start Pineda in Games 1, 4, and 7, Odorizzi in Games 2 and 5, Gibson in Game 3. Pineda’s last action in an ALDS against Tampa Bay would be in Game 4 (if necessary), so he’d pitch on regular rest in Game 1 of the ALCS. ALDSs against Boston and Houston wouldn’t pose any problems. Use José Berríos out of the bullpen against lefties. ALCS: Twins vs. Astros Start Pérez in Games 1, 4, and 7. His last game in an ALDS against Boston would have been Game 4 (if necessary), so if it went five games, he’d start on regular rest. Start Odorizzi in Games 2 and 6, and give Game 5 in Houston to Gibson and his team-best .593 OPS allowed at Houston. Use José Berríos out of the bullpen against anyone but George Springer (6-for-12 with two extra-base hits) and Alex Bregman (4-for-7 with three extra-base hits). ALCS: Twins vs. Rays Start Odorizzi in Games 1, 4, and 7, unless he has to pitch Game 5 against the Yankees or Astros in the ALDS. If that’s the case, start Berríos in Games 1, 4, and 7, whose last game in an ALDS would be in Game 4 against Boston, which would be regular rest if it went five games. Start Odorizzi in Games 2 and 6, if necessary, and Pineda in Game 3. ALCS: Twins vs. Red Sox Pitch Pérez in Games 1, 4, and 7. His last action in an ALDS would come in Game 4 against Houston, so if it went five games he’d start on regular rest. Start Berríos in Games 2 and 6. That keeps his .871 OPS allowed away from Fenway. Gibson pitches Game 3. So José Berríos doesn’t make sense as a Game 1 starter for the Minnesota Twins in any American League playoff series unless Jake Odorizzi is unavailable. Forget all that in the World Series, though, but worry about that when you get there.

Anyone else feel like this acquisition was influenced specifically by Schoop's AL Central success, especially against Cleveland starters? Also, given the deep free agent market for middle infielders, the one-year deal being signed so soon in free agency seems to indicate Falvine fully intend to give Nick Gordon a shot to be an everyday player in 2020 if not before.

The Minnesota Twins’ acquisition of second baseman Jonathan Schoop has been considered by most as a low-risk, high-reward move by general manager Thad Levine and president Derek Falvey. It is that, but going ignored is the immediate impact the move has on the Twins’ chances in the American League (AL) Central Division. The AL Central was really bad in 2018. Three teams posted winning percentages below .400, which was one more than the rest of Major League Baseball (MLB). Cleveland, the eventual division champions, were seven wins better than the Twins within the division despite winning the season series over Minnesota 10-9. The Twins just weren’t good enough in games against the AL Central’s worst teams in 2018, especially at the plate. The addition of Schoop for one season at an affordable $7.5 million salary addresses that issue. Schoop Scorches the AL Central The AL Central rosters as of this writing bode well for Schoop and the Twins. Over his career, Schoop has a combined batting average of .357 against Minnesota’s division opponents in 168 at-bats. In fact, the only team in the Central with which he’s “struggled” is the Twins, with a .275 batting average but .833 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). Let’s look at how Schoop has fared against the AL Central teams the Twins will have to beat to make the playoffs. Kansas City Royals (32 AB, 12 H, .375/.394/.406) The Twins didn’t win nearly enough games against the AL Central’s worst team last season. Minnesota lost the season series to Kansas City 10-9, allowing four more runs than they scored over the course of those games. Minnesota was considerably worse on offense against the Royals than the rest of the league, as evidenced by its sOPS+ of 95. Schoop could make an immediate impact in games against the Royals. Schoop wouldn’t mind if Danny Duffy returns healthy for Kansas City, having accrued eight hits in 16 career at-bats against him. He has two hits in six at-bats against Ian Kennedy, too. While Schoop hasn’t shown much power against the Royals (0 HR, 1 2B) his .394 OBP would be a welcome addition for a team that only reached base at a .347 clip against the Royals last season. Chicago White Sox (28 AB, 12 H, .429/.433/.571) There wasn’t a divisional opponent the Twins struggled with more than the White Sox. Despite winning the season series 12-7, relative to the rest of the league, the Twins were terrible at the plate against the White Sox. The Twins’ sOPS+ of 91 was only better than their performances against five other teams. Schoop again can make an immediate impact. Schoop’s career batting average (.429) and on-base percentage (.433) against the White Sox is better than what he’s posted against any other AL team. Only his slugging percentages against Houston and Texas are better than the .571 slugging percentage he’s posted against White Sox pitching. Schoop especially likes hitting against Carlos Rodon and newly acquired closer Alex Colome, against whom he’s a combined seven of 19 with five RBI. Detroit Tigers (49 AB, 18 H, .367/.404/.531) The Twins were 12-7 against the Tigers in 2018, too, but only hit them as well as they did Cleveland relative to the rest of the league. Schoop, however, has hit Detroit pitching pretty well, especially Michael Fulmer. In eight at-bats, Schoop has four hits including a home run, a double, and four RBI. Schoop also has four hits in 12 at-bats against newly acquired free agent Matt Moore, whom the Tigers intend to use as a starter. Cleveland Indians (59 AB, 18 H, .305/.311/.441) While Schoop hasn’t hit Cleveland pitching like he has the rest of the AL Central, he’s still a potential upgrade at his position against them. With the performance the Twins got out of the second base position last season, it wouldn’t take much. Only production by Twins’ catchers and designated hitters were worse than the production they got from second basemen last season, and Minnesota’s .365 slugging percentage from second basemen was worst amongst its roster of hitters. Schoop will have an immediate impact on games against Cleveland’s ace, Corey Kluber, against whom he is four of 12 with a double and a homer in his career. He’s also six for 11 and has driven in four against Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer. Against Danny Salazar, Schoop has two hits in five at-bats. Coincidence Schoop's now a Twin? I think not.

Will baseball writers take that into consideration, though? Injuries aren't typically considered valid excuses when considering HOF worthiness. For what it's worth, Mauer's career WAR is four better than Kirby Puckett's, but Puckett had four more All-Star appearances, three more Gold Gloves, one more Silver Slugger, and two more World Series Championships, including an ALCS MVP Award.

Baseball quite literally is not making ballplayers like Joe Mauer anymore. In fact, he’s potentially the last of a bygone era, during which striking out was still frowned upon by coaches and downright despised by some players. Joe Mauer hates striking out — so much so he struck out just once in high school. Even as Major League Baseball evolved into a game with more pitchers throwing harder and nastier pitches than ever before, Mauer refused to change his approach and was good enough to not only get away with it, but force defenses to adjust to him just as Barry Bonds before him. Mauer received one of the most extreme defensive outfield shifts in baseball, and he got his hits despite it. Of the top 21 seasons in overall strikeouts in MLB history, Mauer played in 15. He struck out more than 100 times just once, and his OPS+ was under 100 in just two seasons of his career. But some still think Mauer was overpaid given the expectancy for him to catch full-time. Addressing Mauer’s Haters Mauer, a soft-spoken, Minnesota-nice guy, has his share of haters who think he should have cowboyed up and got behind the plate to earn his $23 million every year despite a concussion issue that not only threatened his career but his life off the field. An issue that reappeared this season upon a dive for a ball at first base and might be responsible for Mauer’s indecision regarding his playing future. Mauer’s haters should know over the course of his career, the Twins paid Joe just $374,856.42 more per win above a replacement player than the Marlins and Tigers paid Cabrera, and the Tigers still owe him at least $154 million. The Twins paid just $728,825.30 more per win above a replacement player than the Cardinals and Angels have paid Pujols, who’s still owed $87 million. If you average the WAR of both Cabrera and Pujols over their last seven years across the remaining years of their contracts, their cost per win above a replacement player balloons to $381,619.65 and $80,136.39 more per WAR than Joe, respectively. Not being overpaid relative to his fellow first basemen won’t make Mauer a first-ballot Hall of Famer like Pujols and Cabrera, but it doesn’t hurt. The Hall of Fame Question Most will say Mauer’s six All-Star appearances and 2,123 hits aren’t enough. Most will say he never won a playoff series. Most will say his 55.1 career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) isn’t even as good as another former Twin (David Ortiz, 55.3) despite it being top-100 all time amongst Hall of Fame position players and 151st all time in MLB history, according to Baseball Reference. Mauer’s integrity and humility are Hall-of-Fame caliber, however. Unlike Ortiz, who failed a 2003 performance-enhancing drug test, Mauer’s legacy is unquestioned and untarnished. Although Mauer only played in the post-steroid era of Major League Baseball (the drug policy as we know it was first implemented and enforced in 2004), he’s someone who might have benefited from steroids and had an “opportunity” to use them after sustaining a knee injury in his rookie season. At 21, Joe knew better, and at 28, when his body struggled recovering from surgery and then fell ill with pneumonia, Mauer probably never even considered using steroids. Mauer came back in 2012 to lead the league in on-base percentage (OBP), beating his 2011 OBP by 56 points (.420). His .351 OBP in 2018 is the worst of his career and was still the 50th-best in baseball and 10 percent better than the MLB average (.318). He was top-10 in league OBP and batting average seven times and top-10 in Adjusted OPS+ six times in his career. Mauer’s .3063 career batting average is, ironically, identical to his Hall of Fame manager’s, good for 138th-best all time. But Paul Molitor has 1,196 more hits than Joe. Regardless, Mauer’s career batting average is sandwiched between Hall of Famers Ernie Lombardi and George Kell, and is better than that of the next-best hitting catcher of his era, Buster Posey (.306). Mauer’s the only catcher ever to win three batting titles, too. But what makes Hall of Famers is their relative dominance of their respective eras. Barry Bonds didn’t have to beat Babe Ruth in career home runs; he just needed to dominate his era like Ruth his. Mauer is a Hall of Famer given his place amongst his peers. When compared to his peers, from 2004 to 2018, Mauer’s batting average ranks ninth, between Mike Trout and Buster Posey. His OBP is twelfth, between Hall of Famer Chipper Jones and Bryce Harper. His Weighted Runs Created (WRC) is tenth, whereas Posey ranks 94th. On an All-MLB 2004–18 Team, Mauer would clearly be the catcher, and he’s probably the fourth-best first baseman of his generation, behind Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Joey Votto — all first-ballot Hall of Famers. Mauer’s numbers aren’t first-ballot-Hall-of-Fame worthy, but the way he represented the game of baseball and himself on and off the field is worthy of first-ballot consideration, which he’ll receive. Joe might even be a victim of the Hall of Fame shrinking the length of time players stay on the ballot from 15 years to 10. Mauer won’t be eligible for induction until 2023 at the earliest, but judging from the lack of retirees expected this season, he could benefit from a lack of competition. We don’t know if this is Adrian Beltre’s final season, and if it isn’t, Mauer could be sharing the ballot with holdovers from previous years, not including Bonds or Roger Clemens, who will fall off the ballot in three years. Even if Joe isn’t voted into the MLB Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, he will most certainly get support from the Hall of Fame’s Veterans Committee. One way or another, Joe Mauer is a Hall of Fame player. Personally, I’d like to see if he’s a Hall of Fame manager.

I would have loved for us not to have finished last in stolen bases...

The one sport that stands to benefit most from advances in technology is America’s Pastime. My colleague Ben Beecken shares that sentiment and understands baseball’s big problem and how to solve it. But as a semi-traditionalist baseball fan, I’m not ready to take the umpires off the field in favor of robots. This was originally published at Grandstand Central. Something must be done, obviously, and Major League Baseball owners are apparently pushing Commissioner Rob Manfred to make “bold” changes to address what they believe to be a pace-of-play problem caused by the increased employment of defensive shifts. But baseball doesn’t have a pace-of-play problem; it has a lack-of-action problem that an electronic strike zone can solve without taking umpires’ jobs. Increased Action Makes Pace of Play Irrelevant “Time flies when you’re having fun” they say, and that goes for a three-plus-hour-long baseball game, too. Shortening the game or speeding it up isn’t going to make the game more appealing to young people. You need action to appeal to the all-time low attention spans of young people, or they’ll just find their entertainment on that computer in their pocket. MLB isn’t providing that action and hasn’t for a decade or so. Thus far this season, MLB’s collective batting average is .248 — the 21st-worst league batting average since 1871, according to Baseball Reference. Runs are down to 1956 levels, but on-base percentages, upon which run production depends, have remained steady, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney. But there’s never been more strikeouts in the bigs. The league is on pace to break the strikeout record set last year, and the year before that, and in each of the eight years prior. That’s a decade’s worth of record-setting strikeout totals, so no one should be surprised by how often professional hitters are failing to hit. And you can’t blame defensive shifts for strikeouts. This idea that the increased employment of defensive shifts has forced hitters to alter their approach at the plate to increase their “launch angle” and “exit velocity” to hit over the shift is ridiculous. Defensive shifts don’t force hitters to do anything except exactly what hitters have been expected to do since the game’s inception: hit it where they ain’t. If any professional ballplayer could bunt these days, and every one of them should be capable, or if managers valued baserunners over extra-base-hit potential, defensive shifts would all but disappear except for pull-happy, power hitters who aren’t paid to bunt — ever. The defense is the one taking a risk by shifting; most hitters risk nothing except their batting averages trying to hit over the shift and into the stands. We shouldn’t want more hitters bunting, however. We should want more action occurring from hitters hitting — or better yet, driving the ball. Some of those hitters, like the Cubs’ Daniel Murphy, have explained why they don’t bunt against the shift despite having a gimme single if they can get it in play past the pitcher on the vacated half of the infield. Murphy’s reasoning is that he’s more valuable to his team pursuing extra-base hits rather than occupying first base and waiting for another two teammates to hit singles to score him given his lack of speed. “It’s really difficult to get three hits in one inning,” he told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, citing “how good pitchers are now” as a reason. The Evolution of Pitching is to Blame for Baseball’s Problem Young fans are avoiding baseball because it’s boring. Hitters can’t hit because pitching is too good. Many hitters, like former MVP and batting champion Justin Morneau, say a hitter can expect one hittable pitch per plate appearance, and hittable pitches are fewer and farther between in today’s MLB than ever before. Batters aren’t looking to get the ball in the air more often to avoid hitting into defensive shifts. Batters are looking to get the ball in the air more often because there are fewer pitches thrown they are physically capable of hitting hard in the air. There are fewer pitches thrown that have extra-base-hit potential.Since 2002, swings on pitches outside the strike zone have increased 12.7 percent, resulting in an all-time low contact rate and all-time high swing-and-miss rate. In 2010, 50.2 percent of all pitches thrown in MLB were in the strike zone, according to FanGraphs. This season it’s down to 47.9 percent, and despite the percentage of swings at pitches in the zone at an all-time high over the 11-year history of this research, the contact percentage on those strikes is at an all-time low. Contact on pitches outside the strike zone is also at an all-time low, but why? Reliance on Relief Pitchers Contributes to Baseball’s Problem Before defensive shifts became the norm and launch angle was ever uttered, the approach to pitching had already evolved immensely in MLB. John McGraw had a dedicated relief pitcher on his New York Giants roster as early as 1905, according to the research of Bryan Soderholm-Difatte for “America’s Game.” That tactic became more popular in the 1920s after Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown’s career was shortened considerably having served as the Cubs’ ace starter and ace reliever from 1908 to 1911. Even though the lengths of MLB pitchers’ careers were shortened by the now-incomprehensible number of innings pitched over a hundred years ago, there are still pitchers calling for starters to go longer in games and ignore pitch counts. Hall of Fame pitcher Bert Blyleven reminding MLB’s aging audience that starters were expected to finish games as recent as the 1980s should consider how effective he and his peers were the third and fourth time through a lineup instead of calling it evidence that throwing more pitches leads to fewer injuries. Real research conducted by real physicians found that throwing fastballs, not curveballs, is linked to Tommy John surgery, according to Sports Illustrated’s Ian McMahan. Blyleven made his living with his curveball, which is why he’s a terrible spokesperson for getting rid of the pitch count and treating today’s starting pitchers like it’s 1971. Over his career, Blyleven allowed an OPS of .679 when pitching to opponents for a third time and a .711 OPS when seeing hitters a fourth time in a game. That’s respectable, but according to Total OPS+, or tOPS+, Blyleven’s teams, on average, would have been better off had Blyleven never pitched to a hitter a third or fourth time. That is, of course, if there was a relief pitcher on the team with a better tOPS+ when facing hitters for the first time in relief than Blyleven’s tOPS+ when facing hitters a third or fourth time in a game. In 1971, at age 20, Blyleven’s tOPS+ against batters in their third plate appearance of a game was a fantastic 77 (the further below 100 the better a pitcher was in that particular instance). Only Minnesota closer Tom Hall was more effective in his first time facing batters as a reliever than Blyleven was facing batters a third time as a starter. And while Blyleven struggled a bit when facing batters a second time (107 tOPS+), he certainly had a good feel for his curveball when they stepped to the plate a third time. Blyleven’s struggles the second time through lineups persisted throughout his career, but he actually got better as the game went on because he was throwing mostly curveballs, not fastballs. In 1986, Blyleven allowed an .853 OPS to hitters in their second plate appearance. But in their third plate appearance, opponents’ OPS was down to .733 and back up to .828 in their fourth look at Bert. So Blyleven, besides a knuckleballer, is the last person who should be calling for today’s pitchers to go longer in games because he was spending the early innings “finding” his curveball so he could throw it more often and more effectively late in games while pitchers today are throwing far more fastballs and fast breaking balls than he or anyone else in his era was throwing. Reliance on Velocity Contributes to Baseball’s Problem Since the 1980s, when the curveball gave way to the slider as the breaking ball of choice, pitchers have been throwing more fastballs and are understandably less effective against hitters a third and fourth time given that approach, losing their velocity and, in turn, movement. A curveball is difficult to track regardless of inning, but a fastball can be timed in a single plate appearance and exploited in the next. Sliders and cutters slide and cut less with less velocity, which is lost by pitchers faster in games these days due to the volume of fastballs and fast breaking balls thrown. Since pitchers have been relying on fastballs more so than breaking balls, and rather effectively given the aforementioned statistics, pitchers ought not throw as many pitches as a curveball specialist given the medical research previously cited. Hence the advent of the pitch count. Managers want to keep their starting pitchers healthy and able to start every five days, and the pitch count provides them with a guide for attempting to do so. But managers’ number one priority is winning ballgames, and throwing four or five electric arms at a lineup instead of one or two increases their chances to win games and preserve the health of their pitchers. But it doesn’t matter how fresh the arm or how electric the stuff if pitches thrown in the strike zone aren’t called strikes. Reliance on Humans Contributes to Baseball’s Problem Baseball purists like my attorney and Blyleven think it’s the human element home plate umpires provide that makes the game of baseball great. Each home plate umpire having his (and “his” sadly is the proper pronoun, at least in MLB) own unique, strike zone does make the game great. It sparks dugout chatter and builds camaraderie as teammates badmouth that day’s enemy behind the plate while trying to figure out the one 60 feet, six inches in front of it. Then questionable calls lead to looks of “whoa” directed at the home plate umpire, culminating in confrontation and eventual ejections followed by the truly inspired, laid-bare performances in response, as if these men, like all great thespians, forget they have an audience. Now that’s drama. There’s nothing more entertaining in baseball than a player or manager getting their money’s worth after being tossed from a game. Maybe a three-homer game or a straight steal of home could rival Ron Gardenhire’s red-faced rants or the legend of Lou Piniella’s interpretive, dirt dances, but hitting for the cycle pales in comparison. An ejection can invigorate both a team and crowd for the entirety of the game like winning a fight in hockey. The cycle climaxes with a curtain call lasting a few minutes, while the ejected entertainers, also deserving of a curtain call, make for a lonely locker room to find some semblance of solace in a cold shower and comfort food. Frankly, I think the decline in ejections has been detrimental to baseball and contributed to baseball’s problem attracting young fans, who have gravitated toward the soap operatic drama of soccer instead. Bad actors with no respect for the theatre of sport are taking advantage of baseball’s dwindling drama thanks to a surplus of soccer drama performed by characters like The Zlatan — too unreal for even MTV’s Real World. The advent of replay has scrubbed the sport of baseball relatively clean when it comes to disputing plays on the bases, and that’s an unfortunate but necessary sacrifice to get the calls right. An electronic strike zone will have a similar effect, removing some of the drama that makes a baseball game both joyous and enraging for all involved. I like when an incorrect call goes my team’s way as much as the next fan, and I scream at the television when an umpire or official misses one. Officiating-hating is part of the fun for fans of all sports. There’s a problem, though, when pitches outside the strike zone are called strikes in a game where even the best players fail seven out of 10 times. It makes a game ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian calls “the hardest game in the world to play” even harder for hitters. Reliance on Spin Rate Contributes to Baseball’s Problem Pitches these days are harder to hit than they’ve ever been. On average, they’re being thrown harder than they’ve ever been. Fastballs, split-finger fastballs, sinkers, sliders and even change-ups are being thrown harder in 2018 than they have since 2007, which is where FanGraphs’ dataset starts. Pitches are moving more, too. Sliders, on average, have more horizontal movement than ever, with a focus on spin rate making pitches move more and making it harder for hitters to recognize pitches.Not only has fastball velocity increased almost annually in MLB, but almost every pitch is being thrown faster than ever before. So not only are we expecting MLB hitters to hit the nastiest pitches ever pitched, but we’re expecting them to hit the highest volume of nasty pitches despite an inconsistent strike zone that changes everyday, or twice daily for doubleheaders. The players are quite literally playing by different rules every game, and while Babe Ruth and Ted Williams dealt with similarly subjective strike zones in their eras, neither they nor the umpires of the day had to track an exploding slider or sinking and cutting fastballs thrown in the mid-90s all game, every game. Williams was subjected to defensive shifts, though, and they didn’t ruin the game back in the 1940s and won’t now. The Solution to Baseball’s Problem Baseball is a contact sport in that it requires contact between bat and ball to provide audiences action. “Strikeouts are boring. Besides that they’re Fascist,” as Crash Davis correctly claimed in Bull Durham. “Throw some ground balls. It’s more democratic.” Contact equals action, and a lack of contact is a lack of action. Baseball’s problem attracting young fans is a result of that lack of action, not pace of play. You could shorten games to a two-hour time limit and without contact, the game would still be boring to young people. But the game wasn’t boring when Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire were launching steroid-fueled bombs into the stratosphere back in the 1990s because we had contact — epic contact. Since ending MLB’s performance-enhancing drug policy is unlikely, using technology already available and already being used to train umpires to provide players with a consistent strike zone will lower chase and swing-and-miss rates, increase contact rates and, in turn, increase action. If baseball wants to attract young fans, instead of Commissioner Manfred altering the rules to limit defensive shifts or defensive positioning, he should consider implementing an electronic strike zone that’s consistent from game to game, umpire to umpire. The most fun I have watching the lowly Twins is when Logan Forsythe runs out to left field from second base to serve as a fourth outfielder and then running back to the infield. Players are probably getting more exercise than they ever have in the history of the game, and movement is action. Defensive shifts are the most interesting thing baseball’s had to offer since the Steroid Era. That is until Tampa Bay’s use of relief pitchers to start games becomes the norm so starters can relieve the “openers” and face hitters during their higher-leverage plate appearances the second, third and fourth time through the lineup. But instead of hitters figuring out a starting pitcher in their second or third at-bat, they’re figuring out a new pitcher in their second at-bat. If you thought strikeouts were out of control now, just wait until flamethrowing relievers are facing hitters at their most vulnerable — their first plate appearance — and then starting pitchers come in and make hitters relive the horror of their first plate appearance all over again. Not only do both hitters and pitchers have to figure each other out throughout the course of a game, but they have to figure out the home plate umpire as well. Pitchers test the edges of the plate to see how wide the umpire’s strike zone is that day, resulting in plenty of pitches thrown out of the strike zone slowing play to a halt. A ball off the plate that doesn’t entice a swing is a complete lack of action, and a ball off the plate that does entice a swing tends to result in poor contact and little action. Until pitchers are forced to throw strikes, why would they? Greg Maddux carved out a Hall of Fame career pitching out of the strike zone, and he didn’t have the velocity or wicked movement pitchers feature today. So what’s the answer to baseball’s problem? No, not robots, but technologically enhanced umpires. I’m not talking about creating special headgear that projects the strike zone on a see-through visor like Google Glasses and makes blue look like RoboUmp, although that’s a cool option. That way home plate umpires still feel useful and in control of the game, with technology assisting the umpire in calling a consistent strike zone instead of dictating balls and strikes. Technology is a tool humans should use to do work better; it should not be a means to do away with work altogether. A less cool but effective option would be to put a microphone in the ear or a buzzer in the pocket of home plate umpires that indicates when a pitch is thrown in the electronic strike zone, and the technology is close to doing so accurately. That way hitters come to the plate every game knowing exactly what a strike is and is not, so they swing at more strikes instead of chasing balls incorrectly called strikes, which will result in more contact, better contact and fewer strikeouts despite defensive shifts. It will also give managers one less reason to argue with umpires, which, unfortunately, might be one of the last reasons left. But the electronic strike zone will make a three-plus-hour game more appealing to the short attention spans of young fans.

Escobar is the left fielder. My bad. I thought that would have been more obvious, though.

Escobar was supposed to be the left fielder. Sorry.

Ehire Adrianza has no business playing shortstop everyday, and Gregorio Petit has no business on an MLB roster. Ryan LaMarre should be nothing more than a fourth outfielder and pinch runner. And it’s way past time for the Minnesota Twins to call up Nick Gordon. This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com. The Ehire Adrianza Problem On Wednesday night in Minneapolis, Ehire Adrianza started at shortstop because Logan Morrison’s back was still a bit stiff, moving Miguel Sano to first base and Eduardo Escobar to third. Miguel playing first makes a lot of sense, but Adrianza being in the lineup with Gordon hitting .357 at AAA Rochester just doesn’t compute. Adrianza even had two doubles and drove in a run before booting a ball that led to a four-run sixth inning. Adrianza wasn’t given an error on the play. How I don’t know, but it was the play that forced the Twins to go to its bullpen, specifically, the overused Ryan Pressly. Pressly has appeared in 31 of the Twins’ 58 games, and he’s starting to show signs of fatigue. In his last three appearances, he’s allowed three earned runs over two innings, allowing four hits and a walk. The Pressly problem I’ll save for another rant. This rant is about never seeing Gregorio Petit and Ehire Adrianza in Twins uniforms again. Even if Gordon struggles to hit in the bigs, which hasn’t been a problem for him at any level, he’s better defensively and on the bases than Petit and Adrianza right now. Gordon is an Upgrade Defensively at Shortstop Adrianza is three runs below average over 1,200 innings at shortstop. Petit is 48 runs below average over 1,200 innings. And while I don’t have access to the same stat for Gordon, Baseball Reference does tell me his range factor per game (3.46) is higher than Adrianza’s (3.28) and Petit’s (2.67). Gordon is an Upgrade on the Bases It’s also safe to assume Gordon to be a better base runner than both Adrianza and Petit. I can’t tell you how many runs Gordon is worth on the bases, but I can tell you he’s faster than Adrianza and Petit. Baseball Prospectus’ editor Aaron Gleeman indicates as much with regards to Adrianza on Twitter. Adrianza and Petit have each cost the Twins a run on the bases this season and have combined for three stolen bases on four attempts. Gordon is seven of 11 on stolen base attempts this year. Gordon is an Upgrade at the Plate I know what you’re thinking: “It doesn’t matter how good Gordon is on the bases if he’s not on base.” Well, his batting average at AAA is higher than Adrianza’s on-base percentage and Petit’s batting average. Gordon is hitting .357 with an on-base percentage of .379. Adrianza’s on-base percentage sat at .281 at the time of this writing, and Petit’s average is .308 in 30 plate appearances. The Lineup with Gordon Assuming Morrison and Joe Mauer become available soon, which seems to be the case, you might think Adrianza’s playing time will diminish, and that’s true. But until Byron Buxton is healthy, which could take considerable time, LaMarre will still play center field, where Max Kepler is 35 runs above average over 1,200 innings to LaMarre’s -56. That’s a difference of 91 runs over 135 games. I don’t know about you, but I’d also rather have Nick Gordon’s bat in the lineup instead of LaMarre’s. LaMarre might be hitting a respectable .288 with a .681 OPS, but just three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. Consider this: Joe Mauer, 1B Brian Dozier, 2B Eddie Rosario, RF Miguel Sano, 3B Eduardo Escobar, LF Max Kepler, CF Logan Morrison, DH Mitch Garver, C Nick Gordon, SS I think this lineup is better defensively, better on the bases and better at the plate than Paul Molitor’s, but I’m not the reigning American League Manager of the Year. Molitor might not be able to convince president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine to call up Gordon, and I don't know what they're doing claiming Taylor Motter, but Molitor should be in their ear every day, because it’s way past time for the Minnesota Twins to call up Nick Gordon.

The Minnesota Twins reportedly offered Yu Darvish $100 million over four years to be the ace of their starting pitching staff. Instead, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine invested almost the same amount of money in three players who make them better than Darvish could have. This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com. Darvish signed with the Cubs for five years and $126 million guaranteed and for good reason. He’s projected to be worth 2.8 WARP for the Cubs. And the Cubs are one of those teams, along with the Astros, with their championship window wide open. The Twins’ championship window is just opening, but thanks to some clever spending, that window is expected to open up even more for the Twins this season. On March 4, Jim Bowden reported that the Twins would be unlikely to sign any of the top remaining free agent starters on the market, including Lance Lynn, who declined a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in the amount of $17.4 million. Six days later the Twins signed Lynn for one year at $12 million. Lynn called the two-year, $12-million offer from the Twins “non-starter” just days earlier, but a lack of long-term offers with Spring Training in full swing made a one-year deal worth $12 million look pretty good for a pitcher entering his second season removed from Tommy John surgery. Overnight, according to Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections, the Twins went from 82 wins and out of the playoffs to 83 wins and in. But despite an appearance in the American League Wild Card game last season, the Twins were projected as a .500 team prior to spending the money they had reserved for Darvish. In another affordable surprise, Falvey and Levine scored free agent first baseman and designated hitter Logan Morrison for one year and $5.5 million. Morrison hit a career high 38 home runs last season -- good for 2.8 WARP. He’s been projected to be worth one win more than a replacement player. The Twins wouldn’t have likely traded for Jake Odorizzi had they landed Darvish, either. He’s been projected to be worth .7 wins above a replacement player at a measly $6.3 million this season and is still eligible for arbitration next year. Add it all up and you’ll find Morrison, Odorizzi and Lynn to be worth just a tenth of a win less than Darvish at $1.2 million less than the Twins were willing to pay Darvish. Consider the 1.2 wins added by the combination of Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed at the back of the Twins’ bullpen, and you not only have a playoff-bound roster, but a formidable playoff foe that can shock an American League divisional champion. Remember, they could get Michael Pineda back for the playoffs. They’re paying him just $2 million this season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. If Jose Berrios becomes the ace arm the Twins expect entering the playoffs, they’ll have a starting pitcher who can win them a Wild Card game. And even if he isn’t the ace the Twins expect, Ervin Santana or Lance Lynn could win that game. The Twins’ rotation can now hang with anyone in a five- or seven-game series. A playoff rotation of Santana, Berrios, Lynn and Odorizzi can finally hang with the Yankees’ Tanaka, Severino, Gray and Sabathia or the Astros’ Keuchel, Verlander, Cole and McCullers. The Twins are going to be one of the top three teams in runs scored with the addition of Morrison. They were second in runs scored in the second half last year without Morrison. They’re also going to be one of the top three defensive teams in baseball, which will make Lynn, Odorizzi, Reed and Rodney very happy to be in Minnesota. Falvey and Levine won the offseason for the Twins. They recognized the perceived values of free agents were inflated for whatever reason -- whether it be collusion or analytical analism -- and they were rewarded for not overpaying Darvish. They managed to do all this without adding a single contract beyond 2019. The Twins enter the season with a franchise-record payroll around $130 million, but will have just under $56 million on the books entering the epic offseason that will likely feature free agents Clayton Kershaw, Josh Donaldson, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz, Charlie Blackmon, Dallas Keuchel, Zach Britton, Cody Allen, Craig Kimbrel and Andrew Miller.

I have a ticket for the Touch 'Em Pub Crawl and Twins/Jays game on Saturday, Sept. 16 if anyone is interested in taking it off my hands so I can go to RiotFest Chicago. John said I just have to give him your name and it will be there for you at the first stop at noon.

With his last three swings in Toronto on Sunday, Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton likely erased any doubts of his ability to hit Major League pitching — the final step in securing his place amongst the stars of Major League Baseball. New Twins’ president Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine have little reason to worry about signing Buxton to a long-term deal as early as this offseason, and that’s not an overreaction to Sunday’s three swings. This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community for foul-mouthed sports broadcasters and bloggers. The Three Swings Falvey and Levine can probably stop worrying about Buxton’s bat. Baseball Prospectus editor Aaron Gleeman’s “life is devoted to posting positive Byron Buxton stats,” and he couldn’t keep up with Buxton on Sunday. You don’t need stats to see that Buxton has “turned a corner” as they say. Even ignoring those last three swings you can find an at-bat that proves Buxton’s progress. His first plate appearance of the game came with two outs in the first inning with runners on first and second. Resisting his younger self, he didn’t try to pull a fastball that was on the outer half of the strike zone despite it being elevated. Instead, he drove a hot grounder up the middle for a single that scored the first run — the perfect approach given the situation and pitch. That might say more about his progression at the plate than the three swings. In the top of the fourth, though, again with two outs and a runner on third, Buxton banged a hanging breaking ball into the Toronto bullpen in left center, reminiscent of Kirby Puckett. On the very next pitch he saw to lead off the top of the seventh, Buxton attacked a changeup left up that started outside and tailed back over the outer half of the strike zone. His timing was perfect because he’s no longer worried about being late on a fastball. In fact, he wants to be late on a fastball because it puts him in a better position to punish offspeed mistakes, which are harder for pitchers to locate. So instead of fouling the ball down the third baseline, he deposited the changeup into the second deck of left field seats. And on the very next pitch he saw, Buxton bent his knees to reach a 91-mile-per-hour fastball at the bottom of the inside corner and drove a line drive home run down the third baseline. The swing actually reminded me of , who is the only other MLB player of which I know who’s homered with three consecutive swings.Buxton’s final swing on the fastball down and in was the swing of an evolved hitter. It didn’t look like Buxton was looking fastball all the way. It looked like he reacted to the fastball and trusted the quickness of his hands. It’s another hole Buxton seems to have closed in his swing, so if pitchers are going to pitch him inside, they’re going to have to get him swinging at pitches off the plate inside. In three swings baseball fans got a glimpse of a star being born. It took the nebula that is “The Twins Way” more than 850 MLB plate appearances, multiple swing alterations, injuries and demotions to produce Buxton the star, but Buxton’s explosion was blinding and so beautiful it probably brought grown men to tears. Mr. September? This isn’t the first time Buxton’s offered a glimpse of his potential at the plate. The kid figured out big-league pitching at the end of last season, too, posting a .936 OPS in September of 2016. Trout’s OPS over the same stretch was .962. If Buxton repeats his success from last September, the Twins will make the playoffs. They’ve gained some ground on the Angels and Mariners, sitting alone in the second Wild Card spot with a 1.5-game cushion and have two fewer losses than the four teams chasing them. And while the Twins have relied on a slew of young players (Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco) to remain in the driver’s seat, it’s been Buxton who’s contributed the most over the course of the year, and it’s not even close. Buxton’s WAA (wins above average) of 3.0 is 1.8 better than Brian Dozier’s and 2.1 wins better than Miguel Sano’s. The second most valuable Twins player this season has been Ervin Santana, worth 2.3 wins above average. So Buxton should at the very least be Falvey and Levine’s top priority whenever they do decide to start offering contract extensions. But waiting until after next season would be a mistake for more than one reason. Why Not Wait? Falvey and Levine could end up paying Buxton a little more than a half million dollars next season, but fear of Buxton competing for the Most Valuable Player Award next year should be taken pretty seriously. What little money the Twins might save in 2018 won’t be more than what can be saved by signing an employee to a long-term contract in an industry that only sees salaries increase. Last year was the 14th consecutive season of revenue growth for MLB — a record of nearly $10 billion. Those long, slow games have really cut into the bottom line, eh Commissioner Manfred? Despite those long, slow games and people cutting cable at record rates, MLB seems to be doing just fine thanks to the live streaming market. I’m pretty sure MLB was the first major sports league to debut live streaming in 2002, which has allowed them to work out the many kinks that were present even when I watched my first game on MLB.TV in 2006. The streaming service is so valuable that Disney bought a majority stake in it to include with ESPN’s streaming service expected to launch sometime next year. So the biggest reason to sign Buxton long-term this offseason is because it’s unlikely he’s less valuable next year. If he stays on the field, he can only improve, and even if he doesn’t improve, arbitrated salaries most certainly will improve for players — every year — until Manfred ruins the game by starting extra innings with a runner on base. At this point, it would be more of a surprise for Buxton to regress than progress. Joe Mauer was also in Buxton’s boat. If you ask just a few Twins fans the biggest mistake the organization has ever made, it won’t take long for you to hear someone complain about Mauer’s eight-year, $184 million contract. But the mistake in signing Mauer long-term when the Twins did was not a failure to predict injury. You can’t predict that one too many foul tips to the head will alter your best hitter’s vision and force him to change positions. You can predict a player’s prime, though, and Terry Ryan didn’t do Bill Smith any favors by extending Mauer for four years prior to the 2007 season. Mauer was coming off his first All-Star appearance at age 23 — just his second full season after the knee injury. While Ryan bought out Mauer’s arbitration years for $33 million, why he didn’t sign Mauer through his prime is mind-boggling. Sure he’s a catcher that’s had a knee injury, but he caught over 1,000 innings the previous season and won the batting title — as a catcher! Mauer’s monstrous contract isn’t Bill Smith’s fault; it’s Ryan’s. That 2007 extension should have been for at least six years, making Mauer a candidate for an extension in 2011, an injury-plagued season, or a free agent after a rebound season in 2012 that saw him finish 19th in the MVP voting. Instead, Smith was forced to act after Mauer’s MVP season in 2009 to avoid losing the league’s best player to free agency after the 2010 season. That would have been a hell of a trade chip, though, huh? Waiting for an up-and-coming player to prove his worth always costs more because you’re paying for past success instead of potential success. Offering arbitration to an All-Star-caliber player is like writing an IOU that changes in value but always comes due, and generally at a higher rate than the original figure. What if Buxton Gets Hurt? That’s the big worry isn’t it? There’s nothing worse than signing a player to a long-term contract only to see said player get hurt and get paid the same amount to be a lesser version of the man who earned the contract. Buxton’s injury probability is likely higher than average due to his propensity to go all-out all the time. But only injury history, not injury probability, should influence contract negotiations, and Buxton’s injury history isn’t worrisome. Remember that collision that left him concussed in 2014? Twins fans everywhere gasped in collective fear and concern for their top prospect. Twins fans know better than most what blows to the head can do to careers. But Buxton came back two months later and collected 15 hits in 13 games of Arizona Fall League action. And while the next concussion will be invariably worse, it’s not as though Buxton is running into outfield walls at the rate Joe Mauer was taking foul tips off the head. Besides, Buxton’s legs are his most valuable asset to the Twins, and those have managed to stay out of harm’s way for the most part (knock on wood). What’s Buxton Worth? If Buxton ends up carrying the Twins into the playoffs he will have earned a long-term contract, especially if Sano can only provide designated hitting services the rest of the season due to his shin injury. Buxton wasn’t an All-Star this year, and while Sano was, the Minnesota Twins center fielder has been more valuable than the slugging third baseman, and any other Twin for that matter. Buxton has been flying under the radar because of his well-documented struggles finding his swing. Given Sunday’s three swings, that won’t be the case much longer. Buxton is probably going to win the American League Gold Glove in center field this year and maybe for the next 10 years. Even before he was hitting, Buxton was contributing more than the slugging Sano thanks to his speed and defense. His 23 defensive runs saved so far is best amongst fielders let alone center fielders. But now he’s starting to figure it out at the plate, culminating in the first two- and three-homer game of his young career on Sunday. Buxton’s 3.8 WAR was fifth amongst all MLB center fielders entering Sunday’s game and more than a win better than Sano’s 2.5 WAR thus far. After Sunday, Buxton’s WAR improved by half a win (4.3) — third amongst MLB center fielders, behind Charlie Blackmon (4.8) and Mike Trout (5.4). What Would Buxton Cost? While Buxton is looking like a player who can carry the Twins into the playoffs, he’s still not Trout, but he deserves the same treatment when it comes to his contract. If the Twins were to sign Buxton to a six-year deal like the Angels did Trout, Buxton would hit free agency for the first time at 29. Trout will be just 28 when he hits free agency for the first time. Buxton’s arbitration years aren’t going to be cheap and will only get more expensive with every season that passes. He’ll likely enter arbitration after next season as the most valuable arbitration-eligible player on the field — physically and fiscally. When considering what Buxton could earn in 2018, Marcell Ozuna is Buxton’s most comparable contemporary (5.0 WAR this year). The two-time All-Star is making $3.5 million in this his first year of arbitration, which is probably a bit less than Buxton would demand. So if Buxton makes the same Ozuna made in his final year of team control ($.57 million) and the same Ozuna’s making in his first arbitration year, that’s $4.07 million over the next two years. Call it $5 million just for sake of inflation. In Buxton’s second year of arbitration eligibility, he could be making Charlie Blackmon money ($7.3 million). In his final arbitration year, Lorenzo Cain’s $11 million salary doesn’t seem unreasonable, but Cain’s not being paid via arbitration. Bryce Harper is making $13.625 million in what would have been his second season of arbitration eligibility, which is also a problematic comparison since the Nationals bought out his remaining arbitration years. Still, if Buxton is better than Cain (and he is), it’s not unfeasible that in his third season of arbitration eligibility, Buxton could get what Harper got in his second year. Add it all up and it’s nearly $26 million to buyout Buxton’s arbitration years. He would be 27 years old — right in the middle of his prime — with another one or two years of peak performance left. So what would Buxton’s prime years cost the Twins? To give you an idea of how much contracts for baseball players have increased in just the last 15 years or so (and how little the dollar’s value has increased), Torii Hunter signed his four-year, $32 million contract with the Twins after the 2002 season. He had just won his second Gold Glove and finished sixth in the MVP voting. That’s not out of Buxton’s realm of potential. In 2017 dollars, Hunter’s contract is worth just just over $37 million over four years. So despite Hunter being the most obvious Buxton comparison, the massive increase in MLB revenues via television and live streaming deals makes a more contemporary example necessary. Christian Yelich got seven years and nearly $50 million from Miami before the 2015 season. Buxton will get more. Enter Trout — arguably the best all-around player of all time, so far. In no way am I implying that Buxton is the next best all-around player of all time, but Trout is the best example of a player who shares Buxton’s diverse skill set playing a position of scarcity, and the average salary from Trout’s six-year, $144.5 million deal signed in 2014 is probably close to what Buxton can expect over his prime given inflation. That’s roughly $24 million annually, or $1 million more per year than Mauer makes — at least through next year. Falvey and Levine have all or part of Mauer’s contract coming off the books after next season, and they’ll need at least half of it to pay Buxton. A potential six-year deal for Buxton comes to $74 million, or $12.33 million per year. Adding another year or option likely lifts the contract over $100 million in total. Falvey and Levine will likely load most of the money on the back end of the contract to allow more flexibility in free agency the next few seasons. There will be plenty of money left over for Sano with Ervin Santana’s contract expiring after next season (assuming the Twins don’t pick up his 2019 club option), and Glen Perkins likely entering free agency or retirement after this season. Brian Dozier could even free up a few million dollars for Falvey and Levine, which they’ll likely need to retain Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario. Why Buxton Deserves to be Paid Despite being rushed to the majors, and despite starting his career 2-for-22, and despite the changes to his swing, the demotions and the injuries, Buxton’s weathered the storm rather impressively for being just 23 years old. While Buxton didn’t take to the big leagues like Trout, Harper or even Mauer, he’ll be even better for it. All the failures of his young career culminated in the superstar we saw born on Sunday. Those three swings wouldn’t have been possible without the many failures experienced along the way. When Buxton was truly struggling to make contact at the plate, I never saw a look of despair in him, and that’s what it takes to be a superstar in the big leagues. All the tools in the world can’t help the player who’s discouraged by a seemingly endless streak of failure. Buxton deserves to be paid because he’s paid the price to become his team’s best player and proven his dedication to his craft. The way Buxton has dealt with failure should earn him the respect of his teammates and better allow him to lead his team. He’s shown the ability to lift his team with his speed, his glove, his emotion and now his bat. He has become the new face of the Twins and should be paid like the new face of the Twins.

I really don't think the Padres have anyone who can play SS at a replacement level right now or in the near future. That might be the case in LF, too. I wrote about this here. I think you could entice them in Escobar and/or Rosario. I don't see people showing up for Padres games next year if those two positions are as bad as they are this season. Their 21-year-old left fielder has an OPS+ of 65 in 170 PAs.

So who will close games next year when Kintzler and Perkins are both gone, and May is coming back from surgery? They're not going to sign a free agent reliever for big money. Hand is an absolute perfect fit, and something tells me Falvey and Levine will find a way to get it done. We can only hope the Padres are interested in either established big leaguers like Escobar and Rosario, or prospects that are three years away. I can't believe Preller would shut the door on the Twins after asking for Gordon and getting a "no way." There are plenty of prospects the Padres could use, and even another one at SS in Wander Javier. So which one do you keep. The one who's closer or the one who's younger? I go with Gordon because Royce Lewis was just drafted number one overall, is playing shortstop with GCL Twins, and is absolutely wrecking baseballs to start his career (.986 OPS, six 2Bs in 37 ABs). I couldn't fault Falvey and Levine for trading Javier and another prospect for Hand, regardless of what Javier becomes -- unless Hand turns into Matt Capps.

These aren't your father's Twins, and they have more to offer than just about any team.

The same goes for Boston, and I suspect the Yankees will whoop us, too. If the Twins aren't going to be competitive in the playoffs, I'd rather they sell like mad and give more ABs and IPs to younsters to see who can stick in the bigs, specifically Zach Granite (for Rosario), Mitch Garver (for Giminez), Nick Gordon (for Escobar), Fernando Romero (for Santana, which hurts me most), Stephen Gonsalves (for Santiago, who will likely be DL'd for good), and Luke Bard (for just about anyone in the pen).

Just because June trades don't happen often doesn't mean they can't. There were even rumors that the Padres were willing to move Hand in June. The same link also cites the trade that landed Jake Arrieta in Chicago (finalized on July 2). So while unconventional, June trades do happen and can work out. I guess my hope is Falvey and Levine are everything Ryan isn't and expect them to be crazy unconventional. I'm with you on Tampa, but there's a lot of time for them to scuffle, just like there's plenty of time for the Twins to do the same. I think KC is going to start running away with the Central, and Cleveland will figure it out and get a Wild Card spot. I don't think Tampa sticks with NYY, but they certainly have a competent pitching staff, which is more than I can say for the Twins. I actually don't think Falvey and Levine will make a move for a starter. My money's on Kintzler being moved to a contender (like Fernando Abad was), and the Twins going all in on Hand and maybe bringing Neshek back if the price is right, and they're still in it at the Deadline.

Had the Twins moved when I hinted both these guys should be acquired (a month ago to the day), they'd have a comfy lead in the AL Central. Can't say I'm interested in losing Nick Gordon, Zach Granite, or any arms that are nearly MLB-ready, but otherwise I'm game. I don't see this team competing with its current bullpen, and we've seen what the starters look like against legitimate contenders like Boston. There are at least three moves that will need to be made to make this thing interesting. I'd happily give up a top-10 and another prospect for Hand given his years of control. He's my favorite, and I think the Twins should get him whether they're buying or selling. Neshek would be a cherry on top if the Twins are in it. Just think what it'd be like to have two guys you can rely on when the starters flame out, leaving runners on base in the sixth (or fifth), pushing Duffey and Rogers into lower-leverage situations. I like what I saw from Felix Jorge, but relying on him the rest of the way isn't ideal for a contender. You gotta do it sometime, though, right? I'd like to make Hector Santiago disappear (90-day DL) and give his spot to a legitimate third starter (Jake Odorizzi perhaps). Then Gibson and Jorge fill out the back end. Most interesting is the tough position in which Falvey and Levine find themselves in their first year on the job. I can't wait for the Trade Deadline to see whether they buy, sell, or try to do both. Prediction: They'll make some "Terry Ryan" move for a reliever and hopefully not give up too much. Ervin stays because who the hell else is going to pitch all those innings? I think Escobar and Rosario will be shopped but won't draw a crowd. Could package them together for pitching and go with Granite and Polanco/Adrianza, but Escobar's versatility, bat, and charisma is something this team needs regardless of the standings. I wouldn't mind losing Rosario, but he won't get us much. Luckily the Twins have the prospects. I'm predicting the Twins make multiple trades. That's right. Going out on a limb and making the over/under 1.5 and taking the over. I think Twins fans would scream bloody murder if the Falvey/Levine regime starts with a Terry Ryan Trade Deadline, and I'd like to think Falvey and Levine are better equipped with assets and intelligence to make the deadline work for them, regardless of the standings.

I’ve mentioned Brad Hand as a trade target for the Minnesota Twins in two previous blogs, and now that we know the Twins’ surprising performance has Thad Levine targeting trades for long-term assets prior to the July 31 trade deadline, it seems Brad Hand is the Twins’ perfect trade target. Here are the reasons: This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community of foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing uncensored, commercial-free play-by-play and color commentary during select games. Follow us @FoulPlaybyPlay. The Twins need relievers Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers have worked out nicely in high-leverage situations, and the Twins have struck gold with closer Brandon Kintzler. But Kintzler’s a free agent at the end of the season, and is likely trade bait. Glen Perkins has a team option for 2018 that won’t be picked up, and while the Twins expect to get Trevor May back next year, they have no idea what to expect from him after Tommy John surgery (his recovery from which he’s documenting at MLBTradeRumors.com). Hand has the stuff to close, and the Twins could trade Kintzler and transition to Hand without damaging their chances to contend this season. Depending on who they give up, they could actually improve their chances. Plus, Perkins won’t have to pitch in high-leverage situations upon his return. Hand’s controllable Hand won’t be a free agent until 2020, and while he’ll make more in arbitration next year than the $1.375 million he’s making this year, he’s still a steal given his .984 WHIP this season. Hand’s really good Hand not only limits runners on the bases, but he misses a lot of bats. His K/9 (10.8) is down slightly from last year (11.2), but his K:BB ratio is better this year (4.25) than last (3.08). Hand’s affordable Glen Perkins will make $6.5 million this year. Hand will be lucky to make half that next season. The Twins' budget of $108 million is one of the highest in Minnesota's history, too. Hand won’t cost the Twins a ton of prospects, either. While he’s one of the top relievers on the trading block, he’s not a closer and won’t command a return like Aroldis Chapman or Andrew Miller did. The trade market is also deep with relievers, so the Twins could probably part with a pair of prospects that are a few years away from contributing at the major league level. Hand’s local Hand attended Chaska High School in Chaska, Minnesota. While the local talent angle was taken by Levine’s predecessor, Terry Ryan (Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, Caleb Thielbar, Cole DeVries, Pat Neshek, Michael Restovich, Terry Steinbach and Paul Molitor all graduated from Minnesota high schools), Andy MacPhail seemed to make it work (Kent Hrbeck, Jack Morris and Dave Winfield). Plus, fans love cheering for locals. The Twins have what the Padres need We all know the Padres have a giant hole at shortstop, but the Twins shouldn’t move Nick Gordon to get Hand. They don’t have to, either, as the Padres are fielding two outfielders 22 or under -- Manuel Margot and Allen Cordoba. I don’t know if that means the Padres would be interested in Eddie Rosario or Eduardo Escobar, but if they are, that might be a deal the Twins could make with Zach Granite knocking down the door to the majors with his bat. The Padres need help at the lower levels of the minors, too. Shortstop Javier Guerra (22) has struggled at high-A this season and last, as has outfielder Taylor Kohlwey (22) this year. And Peter Van Gansen (23) might not make it out of high-A, so there are some holes in San Diego’s lower affiliates that could be filled by Twins talent like Jermaine Palacios or Max Murphy. My guess is the Padres feel they’re probably three or more years away from contending, so a couple of 20-year-old prospects with high upside might be a perfect fit. Twins fans might not like the idea of letting go of a young player with promise, but that’s what you have to give up to get someone who’s good right now and will be good for quite some time.