GoGonzoJournal

After the bullpen blew two leads in New York in as many days on the way to being swept by the Yankees, the Minnesota Twins’ playoff chances have taken a massive hit. Now with closer Glen Perkins leaving the team to have an MRI on his neck, it looks as though Terry Ryan sitting on his hands at the MLB Trade Deadline and using kid gloves with Byron Buxton, who is raking in Rochester and was Pioneer League Player of the Week, will be the difference between the Twins playing in October and fishing instead. This blog was originally published at GoGonzoJournal.com. If Terry Ryan thought this team would be competitive down the stretch with the addition of Kevin “Call Me Maybe” Jepsen, he doesn't deserve his job. I know he expected this to be a rebuilding year and couldn't believe he'd be battling for a playoff spot, but when you're in a playoff race, you try to win the race. You don't just stand pat and hope for the best. He also has a manager in Paul Molitor who has no idea what he’s doing when his starter gets fatigued, evidenced by his decision to bring in JR Graham to pitch to A-Rod with the bases loaded and none out on Monday night. Well, my F@*k Dick and Bert co-host has a solution for Paul Molitor and the Twins – a 10-man starting rotation. Before you throw your arms up in disgust, let me explain. By 10-man rotation, I don't mean 10 starters. I mean 10 starters swapping starts every five days. With a 10-man rotation, the Twins could pair starters based on ability while providing valuable experience to youngsters. Twins’ starters have been averaging just six innings pitched per start, and that number will fall as the season continues. The Twins also have a surplus of good starters in Rochester, and now with Perkins’ health in question, it would be best to have some arms in the bullpen that aren’t JR Graham, Brian Duensing, and Ryan O'Rourke. The 10-man rotation doesn’t require a closer, but Jepsen and Fien (and Perkins?) would be available in case of an emergency. This also makes Molitor’s job easier, as he can either call in the designated reliever paired with the starter, or call on Jepsen or Fien (or Perkins?) based on match-ups. It will also keep the relievers’ innings down. Righty Trevor May has been the most effective starting pitcher for the Twins this year, with a FIP of 3.26, which just goes to show how clueless Paul Molitor has been in his rookie season as manager. Aaron Gleeman has been saying May didn’t deserve a demotion to the bullpen for quite some time on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast – probably since his implosion in Milwaukee I was unfortunate enough to witness. But a lot of May’s success is due to the fact he’s been moved to a relief role and has experienced an uptick in velocity. He’s the pitcher I'd pair with my most inconsistent starter, Ervin Santana. You could swap spot starts or keep May as strictly a reliever, but each will be stretched out to 70 pitches or so. This way May can step into the starting rotation if the Twins make the playoffs and Santana’s postseason suspension goes into effect. Since Pelfrey (ERA+ of 113) and Milone (ERA+ of 112) have been the most consistent starters, they would be paired with a couple of deserving call-ups — the righty Pelfrey with lefty Pat Dean (nearly a 3:1 K/BB ratio, 1.18 WHIP, 2.92 ERA in 157 AAA IP) and the lefty Milone with righty Michael Bowden (nearly a 3:1 K/BB ratio, 1.13 WHIP, and 2.57 ERA in 98 AAA IP). Then, if you fall out of the race, or just want to take advantage of a team who struggles against lefties or righties, you work Bowden and Dean into the starting rotation that day, with Pelfrey and Milone available in relief. It also provides a structure for unique mentorship. Gibson, who Molitor would call the most consistent starter, has actually been worse than his 3.99 ERA (FIP of 4.20). A good pairing for him would be Tyler Duffey (nearly a 4:1 K/BB ratio, 1.07 WHIP, and 2.53 ERA in 85.1 AAA IP), who’s seen a couple of Major League starts and can also be worked into the starting rotation. Then there’s the injured Phil Hughes, who has discovered how to give up home runs again. Jose Berrios should be pitching in his spot, and when Hughes returns, the Twins can move him to a relief role on days Hughes pitches. You'd swap spot starts between the two in order to protect Hughes and give Berrios experience in both starting and relief roles. Berrios is the best pitcher in the Twins organization, period. He deserves to be called up and should have been weeks ago when Milone went on the disabled list. So here’s your 10-man rotation and three-man bullpen: 1-2) Phil Hughes, Jose Berrios 3-4) Tommy Milone, Michael Bowden 5-6) Mike Pelfrey, Pat Dean 7-8) Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey 9-10) Ervin Santana, Trevor May 11) Kevin Jepsen 12) Casey Fien 13) Glen Perkins The only problem with this is if you have a starting pitcher in a groove and you don't want to mess up a good thing. Granted, that doesn't happen too often for the Twins, but when it does, it leaves your other paired pitcher with 10 days between starts, which would require more bullpen sessions in lieu of actual time on the field. So let them throw in the bullpen starting in the fifth inning regardless of the score. Get them good and warm, and if they don’t get into the game, let them throw 70 pitches or so to get stretched out. Eddie Guardado should be able to handle that.

I certainly don't pay him All-Star money and give him All-Star years after one year of good baseball out of three, and with plenty of starting pitching depth. And if I can get a couple middling prospects, yes, I would. Something's better than nothing. Fantasy leagues, except for keeper leagues, don't have any bearing on these types of decisions.

Mike Pelfrey has a lot of making up to do in order to earn the $18.66 million the Minnesota Twins have paid him these last three years, but he's finally starting to pay off. Pelfrey made roughly $150,000 per inning the last two seasons, but this season he's All-Star trade bait. This blog was originally published at Go Gonzo Journal. Pelfrey has made a solid case to make the American League All-Star pitching rotation. He's 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 178 ERA+, and 2.6 WAR. He's fourth in the American League in ERA and fourth in WAR. He hasn't been worth more than one win above the replacement player since 2010, when he went 15-9, tossed 204 innings with an ERA of 3.66 and ERA+ of 107. He's putting up better numbers than when he was 26! The most valuable thing about Pelfrey is that he's cheap – maybe if you're not a Twins fan and are familiar with his past two seasons – but teams like the Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, and maybe even the Mets and Cubs, will happily offer a quality prospect and pay Pelfrey $3.5 million to take them to the Playoffs and go away at the end of the year. I'd love to get some bullpen arms – close to MLB-ready pitchers who throw gas. This is why I hope the Twins are sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline. We have starting pitching depth for the first time in a while, and Pelfrey should be made available. He won't be back, so why not get something for the guy who has cost the franchise a pretty penny recovering from injury the past two years. But if the Twins are in it, and Pelfrey continues to look like an All-Star, I don't see Terry Ryan dropping the dead weight that has been Mike Pelfrey – especially if he's still our best pitcher after Ervin Santana returns from his suspension. ---- @GoGonzoJournal is a free, literary journal featuring the rants of sports fans, educational essays, book and movie reviews, and news coverage written in the Gonzo style of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson. They also host @****DickandBert – a live, explicit Minnesota sports podcast on Mixlr and iTunes.

Schafer will have far more than 15 SB. I'd guess closer to 40.

Zips - .285/.371/.396, 25 2B, 7 HR, 65 R, 61 RBI in 128 games Steamer - .283/.366/.399, 27 2B, 8 HR, 58 R, 54 RBI in 118 games Again, the TD team is very optimistic, but I do think Mauer will be better than these numbers strictly because I think he'll play more games. I've got a hunch he plays around 140. I think he's healthier and in better shape than he's ever been entering a season. The move from catcher is going to start paying off. Mark my words. .300/.379/.400 with 34 2B, 10 HR, 70 R, and 67 RBI and improved defense at first base. I rank him third in the league.

Zips - .244/.321/.399, 30 2B, 17 HR, 86 R, 67 RBI in 147 games Steamer - .241/.319/.384, 29 2B, 16 HR, 76 R, 64 RBI in 145 games The TD crew is certainly optimistic.

But Plouffe shouldn't have any problem finding at-bats playing left field. He'd be an upgrade defensively, too. Even if he has no experience in left, he'll be better than Arcia. Or he could be traded.

I think it would be informational to list FanGraphs.com's ZiPS and Steamer predictions on these pieces. ZiPS - .255/.319/.426, 30 2B, 17 HR, 61 R, 71 RBI in 134 games Steamer - .248/.314/.409, 24 2B, 15 HR, 52 R, 55 RBI in 117 games

Could be, but I'd still be more comfortable calling on Nolasco as a #3 than a #1 or #2.

You can find any ticket you want, generally, outside the stadium before the game, and, generally, at face value or less...

Great look at Nolasco's troubles with defense, but I think the move to make him serviceable has already taken place. The signing of Ervin Santana to be the #2 starter will give Nolasco a shot to, at the very least, win more games against #3 starters. I don't see Nolasco as anything better than a 4+ ERA guy, but that can win you games against #3 starters.

Terry Ryan and the Minnesota Twins extended Phil Hughes through 2019, effectively making his contract a five-year, $58 million deal. He will earn $9.2 million in 2015 and 2016 before earning $13.2MM annually from 2017 to 2019. Considering his 2014 numbers, the $11.6 million per year average salary is more than reasonable. This blog was originally published at Go Gonzo Journal. If you consider the Twins’ recent signing of Ervin Santana, the extension looks even better. Ryan cut a check to Santana for four years and $55 million – a reasonable price to pay for a proven middle-of-the-rotation starter. But that’s roughly $2 million more per year for a guy whose numbers weren't in Hughes’ ballpark. Santana’s FIP (3.39), xFIP (3.47), and SIERA (3.63) indicate he was better than his ERA (3.95), but not nearly as good as Hughes. Hughes had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball history last season at 11.63, allowing less than a walk per game. He gave up as many homers (16) as walks in 2014. His 3.52 ERA was inflated due to terrible outfield defense and below-average infield defense. In fact, Hughes’ sabermetric numbers make him look like a god. FIP (2.65), xFIP (3.18) and SIERA (3.17) all show that Hughes was a lot better than his ERA. He finished seventh in the 2014 Cy Young voting, however, most wouldn't consider him an ace, despite finishing tied for fourth among all pitchers with 6.1 Wins Above Replacement last season. The two guys he tied, David Price and Jon Lester, will both make more than Hughes next season. Price made $14 million in arbitration last year, and Lester signed a monstrous six-year deal worth nearly $26 million per year on average. The extension includes a limited no-trade clause allowing Hughes to block trades to three teams each year, so if Hughes can repeat his ace-like 2014 season, Terry Ryan will have an excellent trade chip with a team-friendly contract. If Hughes gets hurt or takes a step back, the deal doesn't look as good, but given his strategy of limiting free passes and forcing harmless fly balls in big Target Field, I don't think it’s likely he regresses. He’s a new man in Minnesota. I mostly like the deal except I would have waited until after the 2015 season to do it. Hughes was set to make just $8 million next year, but the difference between $8 million and $9.2 million or even $11.6 million is negligible. Also, Hughes could have performed even better in 2015 and priced himself out of Minnesota, so Terry Ryan hit it out of the park with this deal. Hughes and Santana look to be the veterans that will lead this young Twins squad into the future, and if they're still around when Byron Buxton roams center field, their numbers will look even better. Let’s just hope Ryan doesn't fail to trade Hughes or Santana when they're most valuable.

Couldn't be more right, Thrylos.

They are pessimistic for a reason – that reason being a front office that's responsible for four consecutive 90-loss seasons and a marketing department that asked its fans to compare their brand to a brand new car. If the Twins are any car, it's my 1957 Chevy 4-door 210 – old-fashioned, unpopular, and it hardly ever "plays" in October. If you can find reason to be optimistic, then you don't know Twins baseball. Despite "future stars" coming from the minors, the unwillingness of Terry Ryan to spend what the Pohlads give him is frustrating. You are also not required to read my blog posts. They are not articles.

Terry Ryan and the Minnesota Twins made their one move of the Winter Meetings, reaching an agreement with Ervin Santana on a four-year, $55 million deal that features a vesting option that goes into effect if Santana tosses 200 innings in 2018, which would make the deal worth $68 million. It’s the biggest free agent deal in Twins’ history, which says a lot. It’s a smidge bigger than what Ryan gave Ricky Nolasco this time last year, which says even more. Terry Ryan doesn't dip his toe into the free agent market very often, and when he does, it’s just a toe. No splashes will be made in Minnesota, because all the water’s ice most of the year, but according to Mike Berardino’s source, Santana really likes pitching in the cold, which he’ll be doing a lot in April, and hopefully October, at Target Field. I called this one way back in September. Ryan offered Santana a three-year, $33 million deal before last season only to be turned down for a make-good, one-year deal with Atlanta worth $14.1 million. He did make good, although he was inconsistent, and will now have job security through 2018 at least. Santana’s inconsistency last year isn't a concern, especially if he follows in Phil Hughes’ footsteps and just stops walking folks. He also had terrible run support in Atlanta, and that won’t be the case with the Twins the next four years. They were seventh in runs scored, averaging 4.4 per game, and the lineup has only gotten better. The defense, however, has gotten worse with the arrival of Torii Hunter, but Byron Buxton should be covering a lot of ground at Target Field before this contract ends. Santana is a nice addition to Minnesota’s crowded, mediocre rotation. He’s shown flashes of having ace-like stuff, especially his slider, per Parker Hageman of Twins Daily. Santana has provided around 3 wins above replacement or better five times in his career, including a season in the American League Central with the Kansas City Royals just two years ago. His strikeout numbers were a bit inflated in his first National League season, but you can expect him to strike out seven batters per nine innings, something the Twins have sorely missed since another Santana was traded to New York, and it’s something they'll sorely need given their below-average defense everywhere except the left side of the infield. What this signing does tell us is Terry Ryan isn’t afraid to create competition for his up-and-coming starting pitchers, and he’s not likely to sign many bullpen arms this offseason. Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey, Alex Meyer, and Trevor May will likely fight for the fifth spot in the rotation, and losers of that fight will likely pitch in the bullpen, be released, or optioned to Rochester. Money isn’t really an issue for the Pohlads, and paying someone not to play or even play for someone else does have value considering the young players the Twins have coming up. It is telling that Ryan would sign three starters to three-year deals or better in consecutive years. Perhaps he doesn't see Meyer or May as top-of-the-rotation starters anymore. Take from it what you will, but there’s a method to his madness. The Twins will also have to take someone off their 40-man roster to make room for Santana, and my money’s on recent Rule 5 pick JR Graham being sent back to Atlanta. Why not? We're already giving them a second round pick for signing Santana. Might as well give up the bullpen arm that throws 100 mph. I like Graham, and wouldn't be against releasing Milone. Billy Beane knew something Terry Ryan didn’t. He sure looked like damaged goods at the end of last year, and his stuff wasn't great before that. So Terry Ryan made good on his promise to improve the pitching staff, but until Meyer or May or Berrios turns into an ace, the Twins will continue to be irrelevant. If they can stay in the race until after the All-Star break, it'll be a successful year for rookie manager Paul Molitor. Judging by the moves of the rest of the AL Central, though, it’s highly unlikely the Twins stick with Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland, or Chicago. It'll be another season in last place for the Twins, but it might be their last, and they may not lose 90 games.

My views are posted here, unedited: http://gogonzojournal.com/top_stories/minnesota-twins-are-worse-with-torii-hunter

Minnesota Twins’ GM Terry Ryan is putting his neck out, again, signing Torii Hunter to a $10.5 million, one-year deal. Frankly, this Twins reunion **** is getting old – literally. Hunter will be 39 years old next year, is the worst defensive right fielder in the game, and will be severely overpaid. He should be making low-end DH money, yet he’s being paid ten times more than any outfielder the Twins have, despite being worse than any outfielder the Twins have (I think Arcia will hit much better than Hunter in 2015). Surprising, right? Not if you're a Twins fan. This blog was originally published at Go Gonzo Journal. As a fan that said “good riddance” to Torii when he refused to play for a contender in Minnesota to make more money and play for a contender in California, I can honestly say that this is the last straw. I didn't become a season ticket holder to watch 40-year-old men who can't play outfield play outfield, and I didn't stick with the Twins with hopes of a Torii Hunter reunion. I never wanted him back and still don’t. Torii's a self-righteous, selfish prick, despite him calling Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press the same for asking tough questions at today's press conference about whether his conservative and out-dated stance on gay marriage effected his free agent value. And I don't buy all that "clubhouse leader" bull****. Do you think a single team offered Torii more money than the Twins? If you do, you're out of your mind. You'd think at least one of those great teams he was on would have won a championship with him leading in the clubhouse, right? Wrong. But AJ Pierzynski did. You want to lead my team? Do it on the field. Torii hasn't been doing that lately. Kirby Puckett did. That was your hero. Remember, Torii? Yet you bolted when Twins fans needed you most. Kirby didn't do that. He played for some of the worst teams in history, and did it with a smile on his face. He made you what you were. Why do the Twins need a clubhouse leader, anyway? The new manager, Paul Molitor, should set the tone in the clubhouse, yet he was pushing for a reunion with Torii. Is he not confident in his ability to do the job? Maybe we should have hired someone else. Perhaps Rusty Kuntz or Ozzie Guillen would have been better. Rusty could have provided outfield instruction at a fraction of $10.5 million Torii will be paid. Ozzie would have single-handedly rebuilt the winning attitude that’s been lacking in the Twins’ clubhouse. Did we replace nearly the entire coaching staff for nothing? The answer is a resounding “YES.” Ron Gardenhire wasn't the problem, although I’ve wanted him gone for years. Terry Ryan and the entire front office is the problem. There will be no championships won, lost, or even dreamt of until the entire front office is fired. When the front office pays no attention to the opinion of educated fans who resoundingly said “NO” to a Torii Hunter reunion, the front office is no longer doing its job. Its job, if you don’t know, is to keep fans happy and coming back to the ballpark. Years ago I thought it was all Bill Smith’s fault, but I realize now that the Twins organization is no better than our own government – a fraternity of rich, entitled pricks that never listen to their constituency and rarely lose their jobs unless ownership changes hands. What this team needs is a new owner, and that owner should be the fans. Hell, I think most of us have a better handle on how to run this team than those in office. I could say the same about this country. With new technology comes new ways to determine your consumers’ wants and needs. Ignoring those wants and needs is not only stupid, but costly. The media have employed this technology to better determine what fans want, yet no one seems to be listening. It’s as simple as reading blogs, forums, and comments, yet the Twins organization seems to devalue these technologies, despite them being a direct reflection of their consumers – the people who pay their salaries. I've worked in many businesses, and marketing is all the same. Knowledge is power, and Terry Ryan and the Twins have neither, because they willingly ignore the people whom they are employed to entertain. Some say this is a gimmick to sell tickets, and to them I say, “Sure, if you're an idiot who enjoys bad baseball.” Frankly, I'm not too thrilled with Twins fans and never have been. They’re too quiet, too reserved, and too indifferent. They just don't care enough. That may sound stupid, but fans should be proud of their home team – not satisfied that they stuck around as long as they did. And they certainly shouldn't welcome back a former star who left for the big money and big lights when he was needed most. But we don't have to take it. If you truly care about the future of baseball in Minnesota, you won't attend a single game at Target Field next season. I know I won't – not until Hunter is traded at least. ---- Anthony Varriano is editor of Go Gonzo Journal, a blog presenting the the rants of fans and outlaw journalists.

I think we can end these discussions by simply saying the money doesn't matter. There's so much of it in the Pohlads' pockets I don't care whether we overpay for arbitration years. There's no reason to sign any of these players long-term. We'll want that money to lock up Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, Polanco, Gordon, and perhaps Meyer and May. Also, trade value only materializes when a player plays and plays well. We can't predict when someone's career will end or when they'll regress, so all this talk of contracts creating trade value is useless. Dozier could turn into a pumpkin next year, and we'd be on the hook for five or six years. When you have quality players in the minors you bank on them, not on questionable players in the majors. Hate to bash Mauer here, but we can no longer deny that his contract will be a disappointment regardless of his numbers going forward. He'll never hit enough to honestly earn that money at any position, except maybe shortstop. So buying out his arbitration years was a mistake, and I tend to think most long-term deals end as mistakes.

This trade is insane. Zimmerman isn't worth an MLB-ready 2B, nearly MLB-ready starter with ace upside, and an A class prospect. Wouldn't move Berrios or Kohl for anyone. I'd rather have Berrios in two years than Zimmerman for six.

I wait. There's no reason to rush into anything. If he continues his decline of the second half and continues to be less than average defensively at second, the last thing we want is to pay him for five more years. I like him in the clubhouse and as a person, but that doesn't mean much on the field. If Rosario proved to be a better option at second, or Escobar, anyone for that matter, I'd make the move. He also has a ton of value given his team control through 2018 even without a long-term deal.

I wait to see what happens this season. Plouffe has had his share of injury issues, and with Sano and Rosario coming up by 2016, I don't want somebody on the left side of the field coming off injury or a regression with 3 years left on a deal and no trade value. I'd pay his arbitration and move him to LF next season if Sano looks ready or trade him by the deadline if both Rosario and Sano are ready. The longer he sticks at third the more value he'll have.

I think if they wanted to change the culture, the entire front office should have been fired and replaced with recent Ivy League graduates with degrees in statistics.

So glad the Twins finished second in this one. It is their specialty.

If it is confirmed I think it's a good hire. I'd like to see Marty Mason get a promotion to bullpen coach. Alex Meyer seems to like him. http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/alex-meyer-reflects-on-2014-looks-forward-to-2015-r3213

This is insane. I hope the 30 days pass without a deal. Apparently Terry Ryan wants to sign Wily Mo Pena out of Japan, too. I think he's lost his mind.