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The Minnesota Twins started a catcher in left field on Saturday in Cleveland and walked out of the ballpark with a win and a chance to sweep the Indians. That catcher, Chris Gimenez, would later move to first base defensively and hit a mammoth home run in the ninth inning to pad the Twins' one-run lead by one more. This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community for foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing commercial-free, uncensored play-by-play and color commentary during select games. To join our webinar for Monday's game, visit here and fill out the registration form at the bottom of the page. On Saturday, Twins’ manager Paul Molitor had to scratch right fielder Max Kepler after fouling a ball off his right foot on Friday, and left fielder Eddie Rosario due to illness. And since Eduardo Escobar had to play third base for Miguel Sano (illness) for a second straight day, he couldn’t play left field for Rosario. Enter Gimenez, the Twins’ backup catcher, mop-up reliever and, now, fifth outfielder. Despite liabilities in both corners of the outfield, Gibson walking four over four and two-thirds innings, and Kennys Vargas repeatedly getting in Brian Dozier’s way defensively, the Twins found a way -- like they have all season. Matt Belisle almost blew it for the Twins but battled after falling off the first base bag and missing a double-play throw that allowed the tying run to score. Dozier didn’t miss a big mistake on a fastball up and in and broke the 2-2 tie in the eighth inning, and Rosario came on to play left, moving Gimenez to first so the Twins wouldn’t lose their backup catcher for the rest of the game. Brandon Kintzler, a closer averaging six strikeouts per nine innings, gave up a two-out double to Francisco Lindor before locking up the save. He’s tied for the league lead in saves at 20. The Twins bullpen, the worst in baseball, picked up Kyle Gibson, who failed to complete six innings for the tenth time in 13 starts. He also failed to complete five innings for the fourth time in his last 13 starts. Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey carried the bulk of the load again, and the Twins got their most unlikely and impressive win of the season to pull within a half game of Cleveland in the American League Central Division. Then the Twins went to work on Sunday, taking an early 2-0 lead thanks to a two-run double by catcher Jason Castro. And with Ervin Santana finding his command and pounding the strike zone, the Twins completed the sweep of Cleveland and moved into first place in the AL Central with two weeks until the All-Star Break. It was the vintage Santana the Twins will need to remain competitive this season. He was getting swings and misses on sliders buried in the dirt and painting the corners with 95-mile-per-hour heat while walking no one and striking out seven over six shutout innings. Twins fans keep awaiting the regression, and you feel it’s got to show itself over this stretch where the Twins face quality starter after quality starter everyday for over a week, all on the road. Luckily, the Twins can’t seem to lose on the road, winning over 70 percent of their road games. That’s better than everyone but the MLB-best Houston Astros. The Twins play 21 games in 20 days entering the All-Star Break, with four of those games coming against the surging Kansas City Royals. They have 15 of those games to go, so if the Twins can hang around the .500 mark entering the All-Star Break, they’d not only be in contention, but potential buyers at the Trade Deadline. Instead of searching for pitching prospects for the near future, Falvey might be forced to consider pitching rentals for this season. Maybe free-agent-to-be Jake Arrieta could be had for Eduardo Escobar now that Kyle Schwarber’s been demoted. San Diego’s Clayton Richard is also a free agent after the season, and with the Padres’ glaring needs in left field and at shortstop, Falvey could target Brad Hand as a relief pitcher to include with Richard. Hand won’t be easy to acquire, though, given his stellar K:BB ratio (4.25) and the fact he won’t be a free agent until 2020. I’d say only Nick Gordon and maybe Zach Granite are off the table if your Falvey, but it might take one of them to get Hand if Escobar, Polanco, Grossman or Rosario aren’t desired. The Twins just got bullpen reinforcements in Dillon Gee and sidearmer Trevor Hildenberger, so they’ll get a sense of whether baseball’s worst bullpen is trending up entering the All-Star Break. Phil Hughes could even join the bullpen sometime soon, and while we don’t know what to expect of Hughes, just having another guy out there who can throw more than one inning would be a blessing for a starting rotation that rarely pitches six innings. Hughes has tossed two scoreless innings with AAA Rochester, allowing one hit and two walks while striking out one. Glen Perkins is still a long way from contributing to the Twins, but would be a welcomed addition come mid-July or early August. One thing is clear -- the Twins’ rebuild is way ahead of schedule. F@*k Dick and Bert will be trying something a little different on Monday, as Jose Berrios takes on Chris Sale and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park starting at 6 p.m. CST. We’re doing a webinar so you can get involved with the show. You can register for the webinar by following the link above and filling out the registration form. Then use the login form below it to join us for a drink, and we'll talk Twins baseball and real life.
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When Twins become sellers, Escobar likely first to be traded
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
I don't think they need to be sellers to shop Escobar. His value's never been higher and they have Adrianza, Polanco, and potentially Gordon to give infield innings.- 13 comments
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When Twins become sellers, Escobar likely first to be traded
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
I'd love to see Grossman bat leadoff more often and move Dozier to the three-hole behind Mauer.- 13 comments
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When Twins become sellers, Escobar likely first to be traded
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
Check the defensive analytics. He's below average at every position he plays in range factor and defensive runs saved. He's best in left field actually. And if he was in the Twins long-term plans, they probably wouldn't have drafted Nick Gordon or been so quick to bring up Polanco. Dozier is more valuable as a Twin given his contract status and the fact he could be traded at this deadline, in the offseason, or the next deadline. I don't think the Twins are ready to move Polanco to second base, and I'm sure they don't want him playing everyday given his bat falling off as of late, which is why I see Escobar moving so Polanco can split time with Gordon.- 13 comments
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Fans will get to see if the Minnesota Twins truly can hang over their next nine games. Starting Thursday, the Twins will see starting pitchers Jose Quintana (8.7 K/9, 2.47 K/B), Trevor Bauer (7 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K in last start against Twins), Corey Kluber (11 K/9, 4.71 K/BB), Josh Tomlin (9.33 K/BB), Chris Sale (12.2 K/9), Drew Pomeranz (10.4 K/9), Rick Porcello (4.72 K/BB), David Price (BOS 3-1 in his four June starts) and Jason Vargas (200 ERA+). All those games are on the road. This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community of foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing commercial-free, uncensored play-by-play during select games. The premiere games will be when Jose Berrios takes on Chris Sale in Boston on Monday, and when veterans Ervin Santana and Jason Vargas do battle in Kansas City next Friday. The Twins have to be underdogs in just about all nine of those games, though. The Twins better hope they get some pitching reinforcements. Right now the Twins are running Nik Turley out there, but they just signed Dillon Gee, so expect him to get a start over that nine-game stretch. Hector Santiago is getting a rehab start on Wednesday for the Rochester Red Wings, and if all goes well, he could pitch as early as Tuesday against Pomeranz. That could end up being a big game for the Twins and Santiago, who has fallen and can’t get up. The bullpen could also use reinforcements, and Alan Busenitz doesn’t seem to be the answer. Phil Hughes could also pitch out of the bullpen for Rochester on Wednesday. Expect Hughes to take longer to get back to MLB ready, but he’d be a welcomed addition to the worst bullpen in baseball. If Hughes can even get through a lineup once, he would leave fewer innings for guys like Matt Belisle (5.1 BB/9) and Craig Breslow (5 SO/9). Hughes will likely be forced back up during that brutal nine-game stretch for the Twins whether he’s pitching well at AAA or not. This is the stretch of games that will turn contenders into sellers. Consider if the Twins go 2-7 over that nine-game stretch. They’d be two games under .500 at best, and with Cleveland’s offense finally taking off (and three more games coming against them) the Twins could be looking up from farther down in the AL Central than the 1.5 games they are entering Wednesday. The Twins will have 10 more games after the nine-game stretch against playoff-caliber starting pitching to avoid becoming sellers at the deadline. Regardless, you can bet new chief of baseball operations Derek Falvey will be active over his first Trade Deadline. It won’t take much for him to be as active as Terry Ryan ever was. So who do the Twins move? Santana’s value has plummeted lately, and given the Twins don’t have enough MLB-caliber pitchers to start every fifth day, it’s a safe bet anyone capable of eating innings will be sticking around. Brian Dozier’s value has dried up a bit, too, which isn’t all bad. He’s still signed through 2018, and at a very reasonable rate next season ($6 million). This offseason or the deadline next season would be a good time to shop him, depending how Nick Gordon performs if he gets a cup of coffee when rosters expand this season. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press said it’s a possibility. Gordon would likely push Jorge Polanco to second base. The most valuable players on the team aren’t going anywhere. Zach Granite can bang on the door all he wants, but Byron Buxton is going nowhere. Neither is Max Kepler, and I doubt Eddie Rosario would be moved given he’s not even arbitration eligible until 2019. Robbie Grossman is one of the most valuable trade chips the Twins have, and I expect him to be shopped. He’s not an everyday outfielder, but man, can he hit. I think Falvey really likes Grossman. But what’s not to like? His OPS+ is 112, and he’s absolutely wrecking right-handed pitching (6 HR, .435 SLG, .801 OPS). He’s not bad against lefties either (.441 OBP, .741 OPS). He still has the highest on-base percentage amongst designated hitters at .389 and should be an All-star. He has a higher OPS than Hanley Ramirez, Victor Martinez, Mark Trumbo, Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran. Grossman will be arbitration eligible next year and would be a fantastic addition as a designated hitter for a playoff team, but I can’t expect any of the teams of the players mentioned to make a move for the position. That leaves Eduardo Escobar, who is on fire to say the least. He has hits in seven straight games and is 22-for-45 in June. His .838 OPS is fourth amongst shortstops, and his OPS+ is a team- and career-high 121. While he’s a below-average defensive shortstop, there are plenty of playoff-bound teams who would love to have a utility bat with a 1.066 OPS against lefties. And the Twins don’t need to be “out of it” in the Central to move Escobar. He’s arbitration eligible for the final time next year and will make considerably more than the $2.6 million he’s being paid this season. He’ll also be a free agent after next season. Escobar can play just about everywhere, which makes me think the Chicago Cubs would be a perfect fit. Escobar could give Addison Russell a breather against lefties (Russell is hitting .219/.349/.346 against them this season), and play the outfield for Kyle Schwarber against lefties (Schwarber has a .567 OPS against lefties this year). What should the Twins ask in return? Well, lefty starter Jen-Ho Tseng with the Tennessee Smokies (AA) is intriguing. He’s just 22, and his K:BB ratio is 3.1 and he’s striking out 7.7 per nine innings. Future relievers could include righty Pedro Araujo, 23, who has a K:BB ratio of 7.0 through 31.2 innings with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans of Advanced-A ball. His teammate and fellow righty Craig Brooks, 24, is actually striking out more batters than Araujo (13.3 K/9 over 20.1 IP). If Falvey and the Twins want to take advantage of Escobar’s hot bat, now’s the time, especially with Gordon knocking on the door in AA. While Jorge Polanco has struggled in June, he is in the Twins' long-term plans. Nick Gordon is also in the Twins' long-term plans, and Escobar is not. That's why it won't matter where the Twins are in the standings come the Trade Deadline. Players will be shed to give playing time to youngsters. Escobar is the most obvious trade chip.
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Berrios can learn from Santana's bad starts
GoGonzoJournal posted a blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
In a prior blog post I called Jose Berrios the ace of the Minnesota Twins pitching staff. Not because I think six starts proves anything, and not because I don't believe in Ervin Santana. I do. Santana gets by on pitching prowess like Greg Maddux. But Berrios can flat out miss bats, regardless of who's swinging them, and that's what makes an ace. We'll get a good indication of Berrios's development on Thursday at noon against a hot Mariners lineup that roughed up Ervin Santana, Wednesday. This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community of foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing commercial-free play-by-play and color commentary during select games. Berrios is in a position to lift his team with a strong start. It's kind of a big spot, especially with the disarray that is the Twins pitching staff. The only thing we can honestly expect from the three other starters in the Twins rotation is that they will leave plenty of innings for baseball's worst bullpen. Even if Hector Santiago comes back and is serviceable, there's still at least three innings left in every game he starts! At least! The same goes for Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia (or anyone else). And while the Twins bullpen is terrible, all bullpens are less terrible the fewer innings they pitch. Berrios pitched into at least the seventh inning in each of his first three starts this season. He hasn't done so since. While he allowed just four runs against the game's best Houston Astros (and that is an accomplishment), it took 105 pitches to get through five innings. He only went five and a third innings against San Francisco, the worst offense in baseball. And while he struck out eight, I think Paul Molitor would have preferred he pitch seven innings. I know, I'm starting to sound like Terry Ryan. But Berrios must find that happy place between missing bats and kissing bats. "Strikeouts are boring. Besides, they're fascist. Throw some groundballs." Sure, it's from a movie, but it's 100 percent correct. When you have the game's best defense, you can kiss bats rather than miss them and get easy outs, especially if you work ahead in counts. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs raves that the Twins finally have a strikeout starter for the first time in nine years, but being a member of a team requires sacrifice. When the bulk of your bullpen arms can't miss bats nor prevent runs, the starter must do everything he can to extend his starts. Santana has not been great his last six starts. He's allowed 18 earned runs during that span. But you know what he has done over those six starts? He's pitched 41 innings -- three more than Berrios over the same number of starts. If that trend continues, Santana will have pitched an entire game's worth of innings more than Berrios over 18 starts. You know what else Santana does that Berrios must? He doesn't leave runners on base for the bullpen to clean up. In 14 starts, the Twins bullpen hasn't inherited one runner in a game Santana has started this season. That's huge for a bullpen that allows 29 percent of inherited runners to score. Over Berrios's six starts, he's left three of them with runners on base, and the bullpen's inherited four runners total. That trend can't continue. The solution is to get outs with fewer pitches earlier in games to leave something in the tank for later. When your pitches naturally move as much as Berrios's do, it's understandable that some days you just can't find the strike zone. That's when a hard fastball comes in handy. In the past, Berrios would appear visibly frustrated when he couldn't command his pitches, but this season he's acting more like Santana -- cool, calm, collected. He's getting out of jams by believing in his fastball and locating it for quality strikes. He's just not doing it late in games because it's hard to trust anything you throw when your "arm feels like Jell-O." So while Santana struggled Wednesday, there's still plenty to be learned from his outing if you're Berrios. First, when you don't have command of your pitches early, trust your fastball. Santana got strikeouts of Nelson Cruz and Danny Valencia to get out of the first inning on Wednesday by elevating his fastball and enticing swings. Next, don't let an early mistake control your approach. "**** happens," but there's a lot of game left and your team needs every inning you can give them. Finally, never leave a game with men on base. Santana didn't have a single 1-2-3 inning on Wednesday, but the closest he got was in his final inning. If Berrios can take these few pages from the Smell Baseball book of pitching, he will have earned the title of ace. Join F@*k Dick and Bert at noon, Thursday, as Berrios looks to earn the Minnesota Twins a series split against the Seattle Mariners at Target Field. We'll be joined by Twins guru Ted Schwerzler, who is going to bring some insight into the Twins' first draft under Derek Falvey. We'll also talk about the home buying process, as it's National Homeownership Month. We'll also offer the usual tips and tricks to enjoy life to the fullest. Visit here and click the media player at the bottom of the page to join us live.-
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The Twins look to their savior, Ervin, again
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
Meh. Rogers K/9 rate is two-thirds what it was last year. Leaves a lot to be desired given his 11.3 swinging strikes percentage. His FIP is also higher than his ERA, so I expect him to be closer to a 3.9 ERA by season's end, which the Twins will take. I can't imagine another team picking him up and throwing him out there in the seventh or eighth inning, though. Duffey I probably could have thrown in there. He misses bats (8.8 K/9) and gets swinging strikes 18.8 percent of the time. The only things holding me back on him is his inexperience (223 IP) and terrible 2016 (1.496 WHIP).- 2 comments
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Why Ervin Santana's complete games are so important to Twins
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
Still wouldn't mind having at least one arm in the pen that can locate upper 90s. This should be Ryan Pressly's last chance as far as I'm concerned. If he doesn't step up I see this team losing a lot of games by a lot of runs. Could get pretty embarassing.- 2 comments
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Twins set to save money, sign more, valuable draft picks
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
I'd much rather have the best athlete in the draft and save a few bucks to pursue players that will be harder to sign. Word from the professionals is Falvey knocked it out of the park, but we won't know anything for years. Still don't take issue with any of the top five Twins' picks, though. Most excited about Rooker.- 2 comments
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The Twins look to their savior, Ervin, again
GoGonzoJournal posted a blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
The Minnesota Twins are running out of options when it comes to pitching, but the consummate professional Ervin Santana is back on the mound to right the ship once again. It's even dollar dog night on Wednesday against the Seattle Mariners at 7 p.m. CST, and F@*k Dick and Bert will be at Target Field and better than ever. We've got new gear that will allow us to be more mobile with the broadcast and include more fans. Ervin was his usual, fantastic self in his last start, tossing a complete game shutout against the worst offense in baseball. I wrote a blog about why his complete games are so important, which basically boils down to "the Twins bullpen is really bad." Things have actually gotten worse since I wrote it, with the Twins' bullpen ERA ballooning from 5.20 to 5.55. Twins relievers allow the highest batting average in baseball by almost 20 points (as of this writing). The Twins are basically down to three pitchers who belong in the bigs: Santana, Jose Berrios and Brandon Kintzler. Yet they've found a way to score enough runs to remain in first place. It seems once or twice a week the Twins will lose by eight or more runs, but if you win more than you lose, you're going to be in the hunt, despite a -39 run differential (as of this writing). Ervin will face the Mariners' best pitcher of late in rookie Sam Gaviglio. The righty has been huge for Seattle in five starts, pitching to a 2.67 ERA. None of the Twins have seen him at this level. The Mariners sure like hitting off Ervin, though. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are hitting .300 and .429 in 10 and seven at-bats, respectively. Kyle Seager is hitting .231 off Ervin in 13 ABs. The weather should be warm and sunny, which bodes well for Santana, who seems to have his best control in the heat. We'll talk about robo-money managers, give you another cocktail recipe perfect for summer, tell you how to turn a dollar hot dog into a deluxe dog at the ballpark, and give you some tips on how to feed yourself and family if you lose SNAP or WIC benefits. We'll also review the Twins first few picks of the draft, with more in-depth analysis coming in Thursday's broadcast. Wednesday's broadcast kicks off at 7 p.m. CST from Target Field. Click here to join us live.- 2 comments
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Ervin Santana tossed his third complete game shutout of the season Friday night. That's one more than the rest of the league combined despite it coming against a San Francisco Giants team with the lowest team OPS in baseball (.651). But the "Maddux" Santana pitched Friday night in San Francisco is so important given the recent stress on the Twins bullpen and the struggles it has experienced all year. This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community for foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing uncensored, commercial-free play-by-play. Follow us at @FoulPlaybyPlay. The Twins bullpen allows the highest opponent batting average in baseball (.273), which has resulted in baseball's worst bullpen ERA of 5.20. So when Santana doesn't pitch a complete game shutout, there's a pretty good chance the bullpen will allow a little more than one run every two innings (1.155 to be more precise). If you take the average start of all Twins starters besides Santana, you get a dismal 4.68 innings pitched per start. Santana has nearly raised that by an inning by himself (5.5). So if we can depend on a Twins starter to go four and two-thirds innings instead of Santana's three complete game shutouts, 16 more innings would have been pitched by Major League Baseball's worst bullpen. That would take the Twins from 12th in fewest bullpen innings pitched (197.2) to 20th, which would likely inflate the bullpen ERA, too. Given that run every two innings the Twins bullpen allows, you're looking at nine more runs allowed. That's the difference between first place and not first place for a team with a -39 run differential (fourth worst in the American League). It's not only what Santana has been able to do in his three complete game shutouts that's been important to the Twins. Even in games he's not right he's given a break to the bullpen. Despite allowing five runs to Colorado on May 18, Santana went seven innings. He went six innings against Boston despite allowing six runs. In fact, only one of Santana's starts has not been longer than the rest of the team's average start length of 4.68 innings (last week in Anaheim). Santana is tied with Clayton Kershaw with most innings pitched so far this season (90). With Santana throwing just over 90 pitches in his third complete game shutout, he actually saved the Twins an inning for later, which is another half run the bullpen can't allow. So regardless of who Santana is facing, his ability to pound the strike zone and get out of innings with low pitch counts will continue to pay off for the Twins because of their bad bullpen.
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Twins set to save money, sign more, valuable draft picks
GoGonzoJournal posted a blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
For a lot of people (just under 95 percent according to an MLB Trade Rumors poll), the Minnesota Twins' selection of California shortstop Royce Lewis with the first pick in the 2017 MLB Draft was a surprise. It shouldn't have been. Most knew there was no consensus number one pick in this draft. There were five potential number ones. The Twins took one of the five. This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community for foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing uncensored, commercial-free play-by-play. Follow us at @FoulPlaybyPlay. Lewis can play anywhere and received the highest possible grade for his speed. Unsurprisingly, the Twins might have found another impact center fielder. Lewis already has a swing that stays in the zone a long time and allows him to barrel up a lot of balls. He struck out just seven times in 116 plate appearances this season. The mental makeup is everything you want in a player -- natural, born leader. He is still years away from the majors, so Byron Buxton fans need not worry. Many Twins fans bemoaned the pick, hoping for high school shortstop/pitcher Hunter Greene or college first baseman/pitcher Brendan McKay. Those fans shouldn't be disappointed. The Twins likely saved nearly $1 million by taking Lewis number one overall, which allowed new chief of baseball operations Derek Falvey to allocate more money to later picks. Since the Twins also selected at 35 and 37 overall, Falvey could use that money to sign more expensive or harder-to-sign draft picks that fell out of the first round. Falvey was rewarded with the best college hitter of the year. Mississippi State outfielder Brent Rooker (great baseball name) had a 1.371 OPS in 2017. He's set to become only the second player ever (Rafael Palmeiro) to win the SEC Triple Crown, batting .387/.495/.810. Some were surprised Rooker got past Oakland with the sixth pick. Then, Falvey scored Canadian high school right-handed pitcher Landon Leach. Leach is committed to Texas but could be persuaded to sign with Minnesota given the money the Twins have to offer. The approximate pick value is $1.8 million. You could say the Twins should have gone with pitching at number one overall, but that would have severely limited Falvey when offering Rooker and Leach contracts. And there's a lot of draft to go. The Twins next picks are 76 and 106. They will pick first in each of the next 36 rounds of the 2017 MLB Draft. I fully expect Falvey to target high school pitching he can develop, since that's sort of his thing. But I wouldn't be surprised if he takes Oregon State starter Jake Thompson if he's there at 76. Other pitchers ranked around that 76th pick for the Twins are right-handed pitcher Kyle Hurt (another great baseball name), and lefty Daniel Tillo, who the Twins drafted in 2015. Jackson Rutledge is interesting at 106. He's six-foot-eight and throws 94 mph with an expectation for more. While I can understand Twins fans' frustrations given the downfall of their pitching staff, there's no solution to that problem in the draft. Even Brendan McKay would likely be a year away from the majors, and perhaps more if given the time to adjust at the plate as well as on the mound. Hunter Greene has even more development time ahead of him. Evaluating a draft that can't be evaluated for at least three years is completely pointless. Reacting as if the Twins organization was "cheap" is incorrect. The Twins were "frugal," and it's already paying off.- 2 comments
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This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, @FoulPlaybyPlay on Twitter. Last week I urged the Minnesota Twins front office to acquire pitching — any pitching — and not to wait too long in doing so. Well, here are five pitchers the Twins could target if they want to remain competitive this season, but most of them will cost something you might not like to lose. Pat Neshek Neshek is familiar to Twins fans, and his side-armed delivery should play well out of a Twins bullpen that can’t miss bats. He misses plenty (8.4 K/p) despite going on 37. He’s a free agent at year’s end and playing on a bad team in rebuilding mode. I can’t imagine Philadelphia would have interest in bringing back Neshek, so the Twins should bring him home. It’s only money after all (over $6 million per year, so $4 million as of this writing). But with the year Neshek’s having (.797 WHIP), the Phillies could ask for a lot. So what do they need? Well, starting pitching, which the Twins can’t afford to lose. The Phillies seem set on letting 22-year-old, third baseman Maikel Franco work through his struggles (68 OPS+). But the Phillies also have a 30-year-old, light-hitting, bad defensive right fielder who will be a free agent at the end of the year. Michael Saunders (73 OPS+) is not the future. Of Philly’s minor league outfielders, center fielder Cameron Perkins (26) is closest, and he’s more likely to take light-hitting, center fielder Odubel Herrera’s place (82 OPS+). Nick Williams fits the bill as a power-hitting right fielder (11 HRs and 10 2Bs for a .515 slugging percentage). He’s even got okay range and has logged quite a few innings in right field. Anyways, it’s going to be hard to find something to pluck from Rochester unless you’re talking about Daniel Palka, and I doubt that’d be enough. So now we’re looking at something more complicated than a one-for-one deal, which isn’t really a problem. David Phelps Phelps is another one who will cost the Twins plenty because Miami won’t want to give up his final arbitration year for anything less than young, starting pitching. I got nothing. Drew Storen Storen is quietly having a pretty good year (196 ERA+) but a regression is on the horizon given the massive difference between his ERA (2.25) and FIP (3.80). He can still miss bats, though (7.5 K/9). But the Reds need the same thing as everyone else: starting pitching. Brad Hand San Diego is a most interesting trade partner because they have glaring need at shortstop, and the Twins have a really good, young one in Nick Gordon. He’s untouchable, however. Sam Dyson It sure seems like the Twins are the perfect landing spot for Texas Ranger relief pitcher Sam Dyson. The Twins are in the mix and the Rangers are nearing a deal, according to Darren Wolfson. GM Thad Levine came over from Texas, and Dyson could probably use a change of scenery (10.80 ERA, 9.05 FIP). He’s given up more homers this season (6) than last (5) for a HR/9 of 3.2, but maybe the depths of Target Field, where nothing but rain drops, will help Dyson get back on track. It’s pretty sad that the best the Twins front office might be able to do to fix a broken bullpen and bending rotation is picking up a guy allowing 16.7 hits per nine innings, but trading for any kind of pitching is expensive. I can’t imagine any team with a competent reliever giving him up for anything else than high-upside, starting pitchers (think Kevin Jepsen for Chih-Wei Hu). Hey, the Twins should get Glen Perkins back in mid-June, though, which will be nice now that Brandon Kintzler is becoming Brandon Kintzler. And Joe Nathan is available. He only allowed 10.7 hits per nine innings in AAA before being released by the Nationals. He was striking out 8.4 batters per nine, though. I guess I’m saying the options suck, and the Twins are stuck. Hey, at least they claimed Chris Heston, right (12.66 FIP, 23 ERA+, 5.4 HR/9, 25.2 H/9, 5.4 K/9 this year and last)?
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Gibson looks to preserve his job against Cobb, Rays
GoGonzoJournal posted a blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
Join F@*k Dick and Bert from Target Field on Sunday at 1 p.m. CST as Kyle Gibson looks to preserve his job against Alex Cobb and the Tampa Bay Rays. Every start in the bigs seems like it could be Gibson’s last, but he was bailed out by the Twins’ bats in his last start after allowing six runs in Baltimore. Gibson’s Issues While Gibson’s strikeout numbers this season are right around what we’ve come to expect (6 SO/9), his walks, hits and home runs allowed are way up (4.9 BB/9, 2 HR/9, 13.2 H/9), bloating his FIP to 6.4 and WHIP to over 2. Basically, everyone is hitting a bit of everything off Gibson judging by FanGraphs’ contact percentage tracker. That contact hasn’t been soft contact, either. Gibson’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is higher this season (.361) than it was when he broke into the league (.350). And while he tinkered with his delivery a bit last offseason, his pitch selection hasn’t changed much. Twins’ manager Paul Molitor blames a lack of fastball command and pitching from behind in counts, but if you look at what has made Gibson effective in the past, it all comes down to his slider. Last season, batters hit .222 off Gibson’s slider. In 2015, they hit just .157. In 2014, .210. This year hitters are feasting on his slider at a .385 clip, and the opposition’s BABIP is an insane .471. Gibson’s average velocity on his slider is marginally down this year, but it’s his inability to throw it for quality strikes that’s been the issue. In 2016, Gibson’s slider resulted in a 2.5 percent walk rate — the best of his career. His strikeout percentage was 38.5 percent — also a career best. This season more sliders are resulting in either called balls or batting-practice pitches. His walk percentage is 3.6 percent, and his strikeout percentage with the slider is just 25 percent — the worst of his career with the pitch. If Gibson is going to get his career back on track, he or Neil Allen must figure out what his new delivery has done to his slider command. Luckily for Gibson, there’s nobody at Rochester banging on the door to the bigs currently, but another outing like his last would put the Twins in a tight spot and force a change. Game 46: Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays If Gibson is serviceable on Sunday the Twins will have a shot. Righty Alex Cobb has allowed at least four runs in eight of 15 starts since recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s gone seven innings in his last two starts, though, and allowed seven runs over those two starts against the Indians and Angels. The Twins haven’t seen much of Cobb, with Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar each earning a hit in two at-bats. Evan Longoria should be comfortable at the plate, though. He’s hit .308 off Gibson in 13 ABs. F@*k Dick and Bert kicks off at 1 p.m. CST on Sunday from Target Field, so join us for live, uncensored play-by-play on baseball and life. We’ll provide new drink and food recipes inspired by Florida, discuss how to easily monitor your money and prepare for retirement, and how the Twins could stay in the race for the AL Central. Click the player below to join the broadcast. -
The Twins might not suck
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
I think this team could stay in the race up until the Trade Deadline. Only moves I expect would be for pitching, though. -
After seeing the Minnesota Twins hold off USA Baseball 3-2 on Wednesday, a dangerous thought for any Minnesota sports fan crept into my head: these guys might not suck. The Twins are projected to improve more than any other team, but given last season, that’s not saying much. Many of the 14 more games the Twins are expected to win are due to an expected improvement in defensive runs saved. The addition of Jason Castro has a lot to do with it. He came through in an RBI situation in the second inning and coaxed two scoreless innings out of Trevor May after he surrendered three consecutive hits and two runs to open the game. May, nor any Twins pitcher, saw a Spring Training lineup, either. Craig Breslow managed to strand the tying and go-ahead runs at second and third in the ninth by striking out Christian Yelich, and getting Daniel Murphy and Alex Bregman to groundout. Those are no slouches. Byron Buxton made another run-saving catch, Max Kepler roped another double, and it was off Andrew Miller! The Twins’ biggest offseason addition had the game’s biggest hit. Granted, it came off Twins pitcher Drew Rucinski, who was one of many players on loan to USA Baseball prior to the World Baseball Classic. In fact, the only Twin who looked out of place was Danny Santana, who had a throwing error at shortstop (while Nick Gordon played second base?), and misplayed a foul popup that he really should have yielded to the left fielder. He also struck out in his only at-bat, but he is dealing with the death of his mother. Twins relievers were perfect. Matt Belisle got Jonathan Lucroy to ground into a big double play in the sixth. He then snuck some heat by Giancarlo Stanton of all people. Ryan Pressly struck out Daniel Murphy! I know what you’re thinking: it’s Spring Training. These hitters don’t have their timing. But there was a moment I felt a joy that most fans would find depressing. The moment I felt these guys might not suck was when Nick Gordon doubled to lead off the bottom of the sixth inning, and the Twins didn’t strand him. I know that’s a low bar, but Twins fans have low bars. Brian Dozier provided great commentary on the situation, praising Miguel Sano’s productive at-bat, moving Gordon to third on a long, fly ball to right. J. B. Shuck walked to continue the productive at-bats, and then ByungHo Park wasted no time scoring Gordon from third, lifting the first pitch he saw (a ball up in the zone) to right field for a sacrifice fly and game-winning RBI. “Good teams find a way to manufacture runs in those situations,” Dozier said. While I’m not ready to call this team good, I’m confident they’ll be competitive and could even be buyers at the trade deadline. Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Park are all going to be better this season. The starting rotation will be better, albeit still probably one of the worst in the league, and the bullpen is going to be better than it lets on. Having Brandon Kintzler and Glen Perkins at the back end of your bullpen isn’t terrible, and Breslow and Belisle impressed on Wednesday. So instead of shopping Dozier at the deadline, the Twins could be in a position to add a pitcher…or maybe they’ll do both.
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The 2016 World Series Champion Minnesota Twins
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
What do you think? I honestly think a team anchored by Berrios, Santana, and Shields could win a World Series if Terry Ryan doesn't attempt to play Sano in RF and break up our go-get-it outfield. The potential addition of Park makes things very interesting.- 5 comments
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The 2016 World Series Champion Minnesota Twins
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
Thanks for the heads up on the typo. I think you may be underestimating Terry Ryan, as you should, but there's more than a 5 percent chance Plouffe gets moved, and it'll be for an arm. The Nolasco, Hughes, Polanco trade is a long shot. AJ I'd say is a 90 percent chance, and Justin I'd rate at 25 percent, only because of Plouffe's presence on the roster.- 5 comments
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The 2016 World Series Champion Minnesota Twins
GoGonzoJournal posted a blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
The Minnesota Twins can win the World Series next year. They have the lineup, mostly. They just need a bat and more production from the catcher position. The pitching is on the way in the form of Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May, and they have the defense. They need a left-handed reliever, a bat, and more production from the catcher position, and hope that Byron Buxton becomes the player we all expect him to be. This blog was originally published at Go Gonzo Journal. Offseason Moves Trade Trevor Plouffe to the Angels for José Alvarez and a player to be named The Twins must make room for Miguel Sano, and the Angels did not extend a qualifying offer to David Freese because they are looking to avoid the luxury tax, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register noted. Freese will likely demand a multi-year deal at a higher rate than Plouffe’s arbitration figures for the next three years. They are both worth about 2-2.5 wins above replacement. The Twins should oblige the Angels and get their much-needed left-handed reliever. Alvarez pitched 67 innings last year, struck out 59 and walked 23 for an ERA of 3.49 and a WHIP of 1.209. Lefties hit just .219 off him last year. Trade Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Jorge Polanco and a player to be named to the Padres for James Shields, Joaquin Benoit, and Austin Hedges The Padres need a shortstop of the future, and although a move to second base is predicted for Polanco, he’s already better than the entire Padres’ depth chart at shortstop. Clint Barmes will be 37 next year, and his option has been declined, but Alexi Amarista is not the answer either. The Padres will also have plenty of openings in the starting rotation, with Cory Luebke’s option being declined, and Ian Kennedy and Brandon Morrow becoming free agents. Petco Park is a pitcher’s dream, although the Padres don’t exactly have outfielders who can go get it. The money is nearly even between the two teams in this deal, so it should work from that respect. San Diego doesn’t need Hedges with Derek Norris in his first year of arbitration eligibility and just a year removed from an All-Star Game appearance. So the Padres end up with an MLB-ready shortstop under team control until 2018 and a couple of starting pitchers who can take advantage of the abyss that is Petco Park, and the Twins get a big arm out of the bullpen, a starter to take advantage of the Twins’ “go get it” outfield, and their catcher of the future to stash at Rochester for a year while he learns how to hit. Sign Justin Morneau to a one-year, $5 million deal Morneau isn’t worth much at this point given his injury history, but a reunion would be super cool, and he can still hit. I’d hesitate to put him in the field. He could trip and end his career, so a full-time DH role is likely best, as is a one-year deal. He could be the addition that takes us over the top, or the addition that allows Kennys Vargas to finally earn the full-time DH spot. Sign AJ Pierzynski to a one-year, $2 million deal This is a no-brainer. Kurt Suzuki’s OPS dropped 114 points from last year’s All-Star season. He hit lefties pretty well with an OPS of .658, but struggled mightily against righties (.587). He’s also a terrible defensive catcher, and AJ doesn’t fix that, but a righty/lefty platoon could keep both catchers fresh. AJ crushed righties, recording a .799 OPS in 2015. Starting Rotation James Shields Ervin Santana Kyle Gibson Trevor May Tyler Duffey Bullpen Glen Perkins, CL Joaquin Benoit, SU Kevin Jepsen, MR Casey Fien, MR José Alvarez, MR Caleb Thielbar, MR Tommy Milone, LR Lineups MIN vs. LHP (AL) Aaron Hicks, RF (.272/.360/.447) Brian Dozier, 2B (.267/.340/.487) Joe Mauer, 1B (.292/.362/.384) Miguel Sano, 3B (.284/.363/.519) Justin Morneau, DH (.253/.298/.410) Eddie Rosario, LF (.289/.311/.500) Byron Buxton, CF (Who cares?! He needs to play everyday!) Eduardo Escobar, SS (.277/.297/.492) Kurt Suzuki, C (.248/.311/.356) MIN vs. RHP (AL) Brian Dozier, 2B (.207/.301/.445) Joe Mauer, 1B (.264/.344/.374) Justin Morneau, DH (.297/.374/.520) Miguel Sano, 3B (.263/.393/.535) AJ Pierzynksi, C (.309/.342/.457) Eddie Rosario, RF (.260/.281/.445) Eduardo Nuñez, LF (85 runs saved above avg. in LF; .809 OPS vs. RHP in 2015) Eduardo Escobar, SS (.254/.314/.423) Byron Buxton, CF (.256/.297/.407) The addition of Shields makes things interesting. Berrios gives the Twins a really good chance in a Wild Card Playoff Game, and Shields isn’t a bad way to start an ALDS, with Santana pitching Game 2, and Gibson going in Game 3. Berrios will be ready for Game 4, and Shields will go again in Game 5. Sounds almost like a Playoff rotation.- 5 comments
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Fixing the Minnesota Twins’ Bullpen
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
The bullpen arms are literally only there to get one or two outs in big situations, allowing Molitor to better take advantage of matchups. They would transition to the second starter if needed.- 5 comments
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Fixing the Minnesota Twins’ Bullpen
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
Perkins doesn't have a slot. He would be used only in high-pressure situations (runners on none out, one out, etc.), although I don't know that he'll be that effective in those situations anymore. Neck issues are scary...- 5 comments
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Fixing the Minnesota Twins’ Bullpen
GoGonzoJournal commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
Is there a reason no one is commenting on this blog? Did I really hit it out of the park? Let's hear some feedback, Twins fans!- 5 comments
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Article: Twins Explosive Bullpen Had A Long Fuse
GoGonzoJournal replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Couldn't agree more, John. Molitor has shown that he is incapable of not only making the right bullpen moves, but putting together a lineup. He allowed the slumping Brian Dozier bat leadoff for weeks while the hot Aaron Hicks was buried.- 59 replies
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